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Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds.....

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Posted: 7/9/2014 12:08 AM

Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


....to win NFL MVP. Tied with Cutler with 20/1 odds. eek

Double eekeek

Behind...

Peyton Manning 3/1
Drew Brees 11/2
Aaron Rodgers 15/2
Tom Brady 9/1
Andrew Luck 16/1
Jay Cutler 20/1


Ahead of

Colin Kaepernick 25/1
Cam Newton 25/1
Russell Wilson 25/1
Robert Griffin III 25/1
LeSean McCoy 25/1
Adrian Peterson 25/1
Calvin Johnson 25/1
Matt Ryan 33/1
Nick Foles 40/1
Ben Roethlisberger 50/1
Eli Manning 50/1
Philip Rivers 50/1
Tony Romo 50/1
Marshawn Lynch 50/1


From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140708/SPORTS 0101/307080061#ixzz36wOmRHLf


This is going to be popular, I'm sure.
"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09

Last edited 7/9/2014 12:10 AM by VinceLombardisGhost

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Posted: 7/9/2014 12:22 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


Ever wonder why Vegas has so many large, ornate  buildings? 

I think it's because they know the Lions have that winning DNA.
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Posted: 7/9/2014 12:33 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 



trump32 wrote: Ever wonder why Vegas has so many large, ornate  buildings? 

I think it's because they know the Lions have that winning DNA.
Can you really disagree with them?

I still replay the '91 playoffs in the back of my mind here and there and KNOW if the ball would have just bounced and bounced....and bounced....and bounced....and bounced a bit different...we'd of beaten those darned Washington ******** (name censored).

Vegas does have my money from that one, tho. I thought Washington was a suckers bet.
"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09

Last edited 7/9/2014 12:34 AM by VinceLombardisGhost

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Posted: 7/9/2014 12:35 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


Naturally, QB's are favoured higher than most other positions since they play the most important one, so it's no real surprise to see a whole whack of them on the list. Nice to see Calvin, AP & McCoy recognized high up their as far as individual skill positions go. They're all arguably the best player's on there respective teams.

Who knows where Stafford will fall in the running come seasons end, but when I saw this article earlier today, I immediately noiticed that Vegas was hedging their bet here.

On one hand they set the season o/u at 8 wins (or 8.5 can't remember), and now with this list they are suggesting that if the Lions do in fact finish with the over?.. than that essentially means Stafford has to put on a borderline MVP worthy season.

Smart move by Vegas. 
 photo detroit-lions-header-graphic.jpg

*Suh, Megatron,Best,Broyles*
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Posted: 7/9/2014 1:41 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


'The beer is on me' -Kwame Kilpatrick
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Posted: 7/9/2014 6:20 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


The site that I wager on has Stafford at 50/1, behind Kaep, Newton,RG3,Wilson, Ryan and the other QBs listed. Position players ahead of him are Calvin, AP, McCoy, Dez Bryant. Luck is going off at 28-1, which is very tempting.

Stafford is going off at 7-1 to lead league in passing yards,

Last edited 7/9/2014 6:26 AM by iggy14

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Posted: 7/9/2014 9:38 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


If Stafford is even in consideration at the end of the season I'd be ecstatic.

I would mean he finally matured. It would mean he's finally taking his craft seriously. It would mean he's made an effort to take care of the ball.

And it would hopefully mean the team had a pretty darn good season and are in the playoffs
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Posted: 7/9/2014 10:00 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 



SirLion wrote: If Stafford is even in consideration at the end of the season I'd be ecstatic.

I would mean he finally matured. It would mean he's finally taking his craft seriously. It would mean he's made an effort to take care of the ball.

And it would hopefully mean the team had a pretty darn good season and are in the playoffs
No It would mean Stafford did get the help he needed, it would mean we FINALLY have the Offensive lines to win...and not just Calvin with a bunch of scrubs that couldn't do their jobs.

I know Stafford takes every game seriously, but last year when he was trying to hide his errors and flaws they caught up with him, it showed how little Schwartz and his crew  did knowing that Matt "HAD" these issues for years.

Stafford isn't the only &^$#@@ player that NEEDS to take their craft seriously....not by a mile, not by ten miles.

half our D has done little or nothing to help us win though that seems to be ignored. the only player with a legitimate excuse is/was Calvin with roughed up knees and broken fingers.....anybody else is fair game.

ONCE the Lions DO get w set D and O Stafford has Zero excuses- we are not there yet.

AND we will see if THIS staff did help him or not.
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Posted: 7/9/2014 10:49 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


3 NFC North qbs in the top 7......Tuff sledding.

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Posted: 7/9/2014 11:13 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


Like I said before, only Peyton rivals Stafford for having a stacked deck:  O-line, WRs, TEs, RBs.  A lot of ordinary QBs could put up big numbers with this group.  He better have a really good season.  Passing attempts and total passing yards are surely not enough to impress.

Last edited 7/9/2014 11:13 PM by socko

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Posted: 7/9/2014 11:26 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


If he returns to his 2011 form at the very least he will have a shot at MVP and we will make the playoffs...
"Oh that's great"
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Posted: 7/9/2014 11:44 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


When I read your post Wolf, this is what I see


As long as the team continues to fail it means the D or O are not set yet.

The D and the O will be set when the team starts winning


So is Stafford just along for the ride or what?
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Posted: 7/10/2014 4:35 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


There is NO reason we can't win with Stafford's totals. I honestly don't think he needs to do much in the way to improve them.Over the last 3 years, he's averaged 30 TDs and 17 INTs. In MANY (and I mean MANY) cities...30 TDs and 17 INTs is enough to win games.

Not to compare the two QBs over the long haul, BUT....from 2006-2010, the first 5 years of the tenure of Drew Brees in New Orleans....he averaged:

31 TDs and 16 INTs. One more TD and one less INT. NOT, exactly, a world shattering difference. Over that period, the Saints went 10-6 and made the playoffs. 7-9 and failed to qualify. 8-8 and did not qualify. 13-3 and won the Super Bowl. 11-5 and lost the wild card.

This is why the addition of Lombardi is solid and why I expect, if not much more in terms of stats, a sharper and more mistake free Matthew Stafford. If he learns to control the turnovers and stays steady throwing an average (for him) amount of TDs and half the INTs....it will be very hard to say we can't win games.  What I'm getting at here is: Stafford's average totals are MORE than enough to get us to the playoffs.

The questions remaining about him are....what Stafford will show up and at what time of the season? This the the million dollar question and it's why camp can't get here quick enough.
"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09
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Posted: 7/10/2014 8:01 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


An elite QB should be able to produce on any team, that's what makes them elite.  Although guys like Peyton can't produce without a reasonable offenisve line, and I would still consider him elite, so I will make some allowance for minimum protection standards with elite QBs.

Our team is loaded on offense at the expense of the defense.   I would expect at a minimum for Stafford:

62% completion - He has hit this once - 2011

7 yards/attempt - This is actually kind of low but I will give Stafford slack since he throws a ton of checkdowns to Bush and Bell. - He has hit this twice - 2011, 2013

TDs - Minimum of 30 - Come on Calvin alone should be worth 15.  I'm really expecting more.

TD/Int ratio - Elite guys are usually 3:1 or better.  With the weapons on this team any QB making the green Stafford is should hit that.  He has never done it.

QB rating:  North of 90.  A career rating of 83 screams average QB.

Total Yardage:  No problems here.
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Posted: 7/10/2014 8:24 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 



socko wrote: An elite QB should be able to produce on any team, that's what makes them elite.  Although guys like Peyton can't produce without a reasonable offenisve line, and I would still consider him elite, so I will make some allowance for minimum protection standards with elite QBs.

Our team is loaded on offense at the expense of the defense.   I would expect at a minimum for Stafford:

62% completion - He has hit this once - 2011

7 yards/attempt - This is actually kind of low but I will give Stafford slack since he throws a ton of checkdowns to Bush and Bell. - He has hit this twice - 2011, 2013

TDs - Minimum of 30 - Come on Calvin alone should be worth 15.  I'm really expecting more.

TD/Int ratio - Elite guys are usually 3:1 or better.  With the weapons on this team any QB making the green Stafford is should hit that.  He has never done it.

QB rating:  North of 90.  A career rating of 83 screams average QB.

Total Yardage:  No problems here.
The ONLY exception I take here is with the "north of 90" thing for a couple reasons. First, his QB rating is so low because, as a rookie, he was an astronomically low 61. I never expected a miracle from him taking over from 0-16 and 2010 isn't a good barometer either as he barely played.

Over the last 3 years, he's actually at 87.

If you look at Manning's first 3 full years, he's at 89, taking out the 71 he had as a rookie.

If you leave it in...and add his 5th season?

He's at 85. I know other things matter in the discussion, but I will say that rating, to me, is the one thing I never tie to effective QB play when looking at a block of years together.

That's really why I don't put THAT much stock into that stat.

I think the other things you say are fine, but Stafford's rookie year REALLY drags down his rating. From approaching 90 to barely over 80.
"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09
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Posted: 7/10/2014 8:33 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


First year ok, but he hasn't hit 90 in the last 2 years either.  I like QB rating it's the single best stat still for judging QBs IMO.  If you go and sort QBs by QB rating all the right name appear at the top:  Manning, Rodgers, Brees, etc.  I know Brady isn't as high as usual, but lets admit his team is garbage and he's not getting any younger.  The only guys who get hosed by the QB rating are the mobile QBs, which is a lot of guys these days, so the stat should favor Stafford if anything.
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Posted: 7/10/2014 9:26 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 



socko wrote: First year ok, but he hasn't hit 90 in the last 2 years either.  I like QB rating it's the single best stat still for judging QBs IMO.  If you go and sort QBs by QB rating all the right name appear at the top:  Manning, Rodgers, Brees, etc.  I know Brady isn't as high as usual, but lets admit his team is garbage and he's not getting any younger.  The only guys who get hosed by the QB rating are the mobile QBs, which is a lot of guys these days, so the stat should favor Stafford if anything.
Agreed.

QB rating ignores the damage and impact on the defense from a QB that can hurt you with his feet like Cam, Wilson, Kap, RGIII and Luck
#NONEpride

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Posted: 7/10/2014 10:27 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


your damn right it isn't set if we keep looking foolish on Sundays...I mean Duh!

There is no telling how good we are or if our lines are pretty much "set" for awhile until we see how the season or few season's plural play out.

IF and it's a big if, they play very well this year, we 'could say' "maybe we got something" finally a winning team.

BUT was it just luck or fortune?? IF we win big?? we don't know unless we can have 2 maybe 3 seasons where we do well THEN WE KNOW we have something and are "SET" for a few years.

we come out and choke in 2014, DO we know it was BS, or hype????? I say not really, because it could be first year jitters playing under a new HC, learning a new system, and not having enough overall experience-in just a 1 season sample size.

BUT, if Caldwell and them are here 2-3 years and we STILL struggle to close games, Still can't make it to the show....WE KNOW nothing is "set"

in that case, it's either players that failed or ONCE AGAIN we don't have the right combo of leadership and players.

Stafford is included , but damn other players have to be friggen responsible to help the team win.....Matt Stafford by himself isn't going to walk the whole team to the superbowl.

you jump on Pettigrew WHY IS THAT? because he drops balls and ruins our chances -and you SHOULD hold him accountable juuust like Matt, just like Broyles, just like Dunham, just like Suh, just like our CB's, or anybody ELSE that struggles....that means as a TEAM, we are not "set" to win, to beat our rivals and GO FAR.

I've said 2 dozen times now Matthew Stafford is flawed...got it?

He is under the gun to SEE if he did improve, did learn, did get help, did get better.  but why is any other player NOT in that same set of conditions...other than maybe Calvin-who was playing his best while in a lot of pain?
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Posted: 7/10/2014 11:42 PM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 



wolfcub36 wrote: your damn right it isn't set if we keep looking foolish on Sundays...I mean Duh!

There is no telling how good we are or if our lines are pretty much "set" for awhile until we see how the season or few season's plural play out.

IF and it's a big if, they play very well this year, we 'could say' "maybe we got something" finally a winning team.

BUT was it just luck or fortune?? IF we win big?? we don't know unless we can have 2 maybe 3 seasons where we do well THEN WE KNOW we have something and are "SET" for a few years.

we come out and choke in 2014, DO we know it was BS, or hype????? I say not really, because it could be first year jitters playing under a new HC, learning a new system, and not having enough overall experience-in just a 1 season sample size.

BUT, if Caldwell and them are here 2-3 years and we STILL struggle to close games, Still can't make it to the show....WE KNOW nothing is "set"

in that case, it's either players that failed or ONCE AGAIN we don't have the right combo of leadership and players.

Stafford is included , but damn other players have to be friggen responsible to help the team win.....Matt Stafford by himself isn't going to walk the whole team to the superbowl.

you jump on Pettigrew WHY IS THAT? because he drops balls and ruins our chances -and you SHOULD hold him accountable juuust like Matt, just like Broyles, just like Dunham, just like Suh, just like our CB's, or anybody ELSE that struggles....that means as a TEAM, we are not "set" to win, to beat our rivals and GO FAR.

I've said 2 dozen times now Matthew Stafford is flawed...got it?

He is under the gun to SEE if he did improve, did learn, did get help, did get better.  but why is any other player NOT in that same set of conditions...other than maybe Calvin-who was playing his best while in a lot of pain?

Welp, just like I've stated before.

If you want to talk about the other positions, then start a thread and talk about them and I'm sure you'll get some conversation talking about their weaknesses as well.

Wanna talk about our weakness at WR and their struggles with catching the ball.......start a thread about it

Wanna talk about the DL and their regression on putting pressure on the opposing QB....start a thread about it

Wanna talk about our young and inexperienced CBs and Mayhew's approach to improving that position.....start and thread and let's talk about it

This thread is about Stafford and his odds at winning league MVP, so obviously you're going to have folks talking about Stafford and their perception on him winning the league MVP.

Even you state that Stafford has weaknesses that he needs to work on. So why can't we talk about those weaknesses and areas where we think he needs to improve. Especially if he hopes to win league MVP.

If you're tired of all the Stafford talk, then start another thread to talk about the other areas of the team that need work. Because I agree, there are definitely other areas of the team that I feel need to step up too.

But Stafford is not above criticism just because you feel like he's getting beat up on by the fans. He is the starting QB, he is our team's franchise QB, the Lions invested a #1OA pick in him and have invested a lot of money in him.

He is the most important part of our team and we need him to raise his level of play. I personally feel he has earned the scrutiny that he's under right now, and it's only going to get worse if he goes into the beginning part of this season playing like he did the last half of the 2013 season.

We fans aren't stupid. We see the drops. We see the fumbles. We see the D going soft and allowing teams to come back on us for the win. We see the poor coaching decisions. We see the questionable scheming.

But we also see a QB that is contributing to the poor results as well, and that is something that people want to talk about.
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Posted: 7/11/2014 12:22 AM

Re: Don't Look Now: Stafford Ties for 6th Best Odds..... 


You SirLion, just cleared the bases. ^POTD right here^.
 photo detroit-lions-header-graphic.jpg

*Suh, Megatron,Best,Broyles*
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