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Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepernick.

Posted: 6/5/2014 10:32 AM

Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepernick. 



No, they haven't won a Superbowl.  But, they seem to do everything right with their roster.

Look at the real numbers on Kaepernick's contract ... his guaranteed money is closer to 13.5 million.  That's it!

Basically, the Niners can keep him as long as he is performing well, and pay him like a starting QB.  If his performance drops, they can cut him with very little penalty after next year.

I'm not a cap or contract expert, but his contract looks very much like a "pay for performance" type contract.  Very impressive on the Niners part.

Would love to hear our contract experts opinions on 'the real' numbers of this contract....
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"Mayhew was a bad GM last year. He was a bad GM the year before that.He's been a bad GM his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a bad GM".

Dan Orlovsky on Martin Mayhew. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09
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Posted: 6/5/2014 4:38 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
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Posted: 6/5/2014 6:50 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



iggy14 wrote: This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
Let's play my favorite game:
Who is older Colin Kaepernick or Matthew Stafford?
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Posted: 6/5/2014 6:56 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



SportyCliche wrote:
iggy14 wrote: This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
Let's play my favorite game:
Who is older Colin Kaepernick or Matthew Stafford?
Kaepernick is 4 months older than Stafford LOL, really? Stafford has been in the league for 5 seasons to Kaepernicks 3. What is your point?
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Posted: 6/5/2014 8:03 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



iggy14 wrote:
SportyCliche wrote:
iggy14 wrote: This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
Let's play my favorite game:
Who is older Colin Kaepernick or Matthew Stafford?
Kaepernick is 4 months older than Stafford LOL, really? Stafford has been in the league for 5 seasons to Kaepernicks 3. What is your point?
So why would Kaepernick have so much upside potential, while Stafford doesn't?  Because Stafford was sitting on an NFL bench injured for 2 seasons while Kaepernick was playing college football?  Because Stafford was busy throwing for 5,000 yards and 41 TDs while Kaepernick was sitting the bench?  I guess we are confused.  Stafford has as much potential as any of the "young gun" QBs. 

Agree to disagree.  Especially when Stafford's absurd contract was 3 years $53M.
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  • MikeOxhard
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Posted: 6/5/2014 8:19 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


Everything I've seen is that Kapernick has $61 MM guaranteed out of the $126 MM contract.  I've read the PFT article on the contract, and only about $12MM of that cash is in "improbable" bonuses (Super Bowl / Pro Bowl).  Others are roster bonuses and such.  This deal goes out of its way to protect the 49ers if he gets injured.  But other than that, I think SF is tied to a worse QB for more money than the Lions are.
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Posted: 6/5/2014 8:38 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



BarrySandersAllTimeBest wrote:


Look at the real numbers on Kaepernick's contract ... his guaranteed money is closer to 13.5 million.  That's it!


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You've got a link?  I haven't heard or read that anywhere.  $61,000,000 guaranteed with lots of incentives + base salary.  He's going to get at least $100 million of that if he stays healthy.
On the news of J. Peterson getting released by the Lions:  "I heard it was a mutual parting, as JP wanted some time off to quit on his family."  -BG284
Stanton could have been an astronaut.  -SLFiD
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Posted: 6/5/2014 9:23 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



wesleysh21 wrote:
iggy14 wrote:
SportyCliche wrote:
iggy14 wrote: This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
Let's play my favorite game:
Who is older Colin Kaepernick or Matthew Stafford?
Kaepernick is 4 months older than Stafford LOL, really? Stafford has been in the league for 5 seasons to Kaepernicks 3. What is your point?
So why would Kaepernick have so much upside potential, while Stafford doesn't?  Because Stafford was sitting on an NFL bench injured for 2 seasons while Kaepernick was playing college football?  Because Stafford was busy throwing for 5,000 yards and 41 TDs while Kaepernick was sitting the bench?  I guess we are confused.  Stafford has as much potential as any of the "young gun" QBs. 

Agree to disagree.  Especially when Stafford's absurd contract was 3 years $53M.
Kaepernick has played significantly better than Stafford over the past season and a half. Kaep has navigated his team through the toughest division in the NFL and has been through 2 very deep playoff runs. It's not necessarily that Kaep has more upside than Stafford (though I believe that he does) but this contract for the Niners is an absolute steal, it is an extremely low risk contract for a QB that has played very well:

Rotoworld:

Colin Kaepernick's new contract is a year-to-year deal.
Armchair GMs that spent Wednesday bashing the 49ers for the "$126 million" deal with "$61 million guaranteed" need to click the link below. Essentially, the Niners can cut Kaepernick before April 1 of each year without owing any more money -- so the actual guarantee is just $13 million ($12.3M signing bonus, $645K '14 base salary, $100K '14 workout bonus). There is also a de-escalator in the contract that can only be halted if Kaepernick takes the team to the Super Bowl or he is named first- or second-team All-Pro. A source tells Pro Football Talk that San Francisco is "thrilled" with the pact. Jun 5 - 8:31 AM

http://profootballtalk.nbcspor...ntract-details/

The Lions gave a contract extension to a QB who was coming off of a 4-12 season with a TD/INT line of 20-17. Stafford's extension is 78.3% guaranteed, Kaepernicks is 10.3%..

http://overthecap.com/top-play...php?Position=QB

Last edited 6/5/2014 9:42 PM by iggy14

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Posted: 6/5/2014 10:09 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


This is really how contracts should be written anyways.

All these guys should be paid for their performance, not their performance for one year, 5 years ago !
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Posted: 6/5/2014 10:22 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


The signing bonus for Kap guarantees the first 2 seasons, and probably first 3. 

What I hate is that its hard to tell what the meat and potatoes of these deals are until the dust settles.  The team, the player, the agent and the media all have different agenda's and the different reports reflect it.

We guaranteed Staffords 2013 and 2014 salaries.  You mind as well, because he's going to see that money regardless.  So is Kap.  They are not on a "year to year deal."  They are locked in to Kap just like we are Stafford.  They are not going to cut him before the 2015 season, and accelerate $10M of signing bonus.  They are probably not going to cut him before the 2016 season, and accelerate $8M in signing bonus.  A true year to year deal would be what Darrelle Revis signed.  It would also be what Antoine Winfield signed years ago (his signing bonuses was taken as a first year roster bonus).

Kap's deal is right in line with what Stafford, Romo and Cutler signed.  The details are a little different, but the size of the deal is very close.  This is the reality of the new NFL.  Kap's deal is the first time I've ever heard the term "de-escalator clause."
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Posted: 6/5/2014 10:36 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


Gotta say I was shocked to hear on espn radio today that Kap has a career completion % of just 58%

Are we ever gonna win it??

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Posted: 6/5/2014 10:41 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



iggy14 wrote:
wesleysh21 wrote:
iggy14 wrote:
SportyCliche wrote:
iggy14 wrote: This is a great deal for the 49ers.. deals like this show how big of a joke Stafford's contract is. I will also give Kaep credit for having the stones to essentially bet on himself. I really hope that Martin Mayhew has learned from his previous mistakes and doesn't offer Suh an astronomical contract. Kaep is only going to get better, he has a full arsenal of weapons now and the guy doesn't turn the ball over very much.

The rich get richer.
Let's play my favorite game:
Who is older Colin Kaepernick or Matthew Stafford?
Kaepernick is 4 months older than Stafford LOL, really? Stafford has been in the league for 5 seasons to Kaepernicks 3. What is your point?
So why would Kaepernick have so much upside potential, while Stafford doesn't?  Because Stafford was sitting on an NFL bench injured for 2 seasons while Kaepernick was playing college football?  Because Stafford was busy throwing for 5,000 yards and 41 TDs while Kaepernick was sitting the bench?  I guess we are confused.  Stafford has as much potential as any of the "young gun" QBs. 

Agree to disagree.  Especially when Stafford's absurd contract was 3 years $53M.
Kaepernick has played significantly better than Stafford over the past season and a half. Kaep has navigated his team through the toughest division in the NFL and has been through 2 very deep playoff runs. It's not necessarily that Kaep has more upside than Stafford (though I believe that he does) but this contract for the Niners is an absolute steal, it is an extremely low risk contract for a QB that has played very well:

Rotoworld:

Colin Kaepernick's new contract is a year-to-year deal.
Armchair GMs that spent Wednesday bashing the 49ers for the "$126 million" deal with "$61 million guaranteed" need to click the link below. Essentially, the Niners can cut Kaepernick before April 1 of each year without owing any more money -- so the actual guarantee is just $13 million ($12.3M signing bonus, $645K '14 base salary, $100K '14 workout bonus). There is also a de-escalator in the contract that can only be halted if Kaepernick takes the team to the Super Bowl or he is named first- or second-team All-Pro. A source tells Pro Football Talk that San Francisco is "thrilled" with the pact. Jun 5 - 8:31 AM

http://profootballtalk.nbcspor...ntract-details/

The Lions gave a contract extension to a QB who was coming off of a 4-12 season with a TD/INT line of 20-17. Stafford's extension is 78.3% guaranteed, Kaepernicks is 10.3%..

http://overthecap.com/top-play...php?Position=QB

How about.....Kaepernick has MANAGED his very averaged offense and leaned heavily on his teams D over the last 2 playoff runs?

Here...perspective. People complain, incessantly, about Stafford's completion percentage. Last year...it was .1 BETTER than Kap. Yet, Kap's contract morphs Stafford's.

What's the real farce?

Kap, when he got his extension, had thrown for a whopping....5046 yards, 31 TDs and 11 INTs (+20)
Stafford, when he got his extension, had thrown for.....10005 yards, 49 TDs and 36 INTs (+13)

Stafford had thrown a METRIC TON more passes and it's assured if they tried to do half of what they do with Stafford, Kap wouldn't be able to hack it (much as Stafford couldn't become a running QB). Why the contract is laughable is.....

In total offense, in the last 4 seasons.....

Detroit ranked: 6th, 3rd, and 5th...after ranking 17th with Shaun Hill "managing" games.

In the last 2.....

San Francisco ranked: 11th....then slipped to 24th when Kap took over full time.

Basically.....SF paid this guy 120 large...to manage games. This debunks the myth that we are going to find some super cheap alternative. As soon as Russ Wilson hits the market, bet your rear he will cost a pretty penny too.

In this league, you pay guys on numbers OR wins. EITHER is a legitimate way. It's been this way. for decades.

For all the bad, Stafford has numbers. For all the good, Kap does not. That's why people are chuckling about this and, if SF CAN void this deal, what do you want to bet they do sooner opposed to later?

"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09
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Posted: 6/5/2014 10:42 PM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



FireMillen05 wrote: Gotta say I was shocked to hear on espn radio today that Kap has a career completion % of just 58%
Yeah. The folks downplaying Stafford will use "wins", but at some point....numbers have to be considered in conjunction with contract. That's just part of the deal. Again, this throws out the myth for the second year in a row (Flacco was the first) that even the BEST teams don't overpay for a decent QB.

The longer it goes on, the more moderate the Stafford deal will look.
"He was the backup last year. He was a backup the year before that.He's been a back up his whole career. I don't think anybody would be surprised if I thought he was a backup".

Martin Mayhew on Dan Orlovsky. Detroit Free Press, 2.21.09

Last edited 6/5/2014 10:43 PM by VinceLombardisGhost

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Posted: 6/6/2014 12:53 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepern 


Here's a fun little exercise, think about Kap playing for us an running our offense. Now think about Stafford playing for the Niners. If you came to any conclusion other than Kap would make us worse while Stafford would make them better then I dunno what to tell you.
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Posted: 6/6/2014 7:29 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepern 



BSLIONS wrote: Here's a fun little exercise, think about Kap playing for us an running our offense. Now think about Stafford playing for the Niners. If you came to any conclusion other than Kap would make us worse while Stafford would make them better then I dunno what to tell you.
This right here, not to sound like a homer or Stafford fan boy, would in my eyes make SF the definite Super Bowl favorite. A QB that could make all the throws(not always accurately) as well as the decisions and not be asked to carry the whole team is exactly what they need. I think Kap would have us looking at the top 10 again.
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Posted: 6/6/2014 7:42 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepern 



Not sure what you base this on?

---------------------------------------------
--- BSLIONS wrote:

Here's a fun little exercise, think about Kap playing for us an running our offense. Now think about Stafford playing for the Niners. If you came to any conclusion other than Kap would make us worse while Stafford would make them better then I dunno what to tell you.

---------------------------------------------
"Oh that's great"
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  • MikeOxhard
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Posted: 6/6/2014 8:15 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 


---------------------------------
Colin Kaepernick's new contract is a year-to-year deal.
Armchair GMs that spent Wednesday bashing the 49ers for the "$126 million" deal with "$61 million guaranteed" need to click the link below. Essentially, the Niners can cut Kaepernick before April 1 of each year without owing any more money -- so the actual guarantee is just $13 million ($12.3M signing bonus, $645K '14 base salary, $100K '14 workout bonus). There is also a de-escalator in the contract that can only be halted if Kaepernick takes the team to the Super Bowl or he is named first- or second-team All-Pro. A source tells Pro Football Talk that San Francisco is "thrilled" with the pact. Jun 5 - 8:31 AM

http://profootballtalk.nbcspor...ntract-details/

The Lions gave a contract extension to a QB who was coming off of a 4-12 season with a TD/INT line of 20-17. Stafford's extension is 78.3% guaranteed, Kaepernicks is 10.3%..

http://overthecap.com/top-play...php?Position=QB
-
-----------------------------------------------


Aren't all NFL contracts essentially year-to-year, even if it's not specifically spelled out?  My understanding is if a team cuts a player, the contract is dissolved and they don't owe any further cash (though the remaining prorated signing bonus is accelerated to the salary cap).  Can't see how this is an advantage to the Kaepernick contract unless I'm missing something.

That second link only makes sense if it's counting money already earned on a contract as "guaranteed".  If that's the case, of course a player who's essentially played through 2/3 of his contract is going to have a higher percentage.  And really, "guaranteed" doesn't really matter... "probable" is all that matters.  Sure, if the 49ers cut Kaep before April 1 next year, they'd only be on the hook for the ~13MM... but how likely is that to happen?  Why compare that unlikely hypothetical situation to Stafford's contract.

What's far more likely is that he plays at least three or four seasons.  That would put the total team payout in the $50-$65MM range, depending on whether or not Kaep meets the Super Bowl/All-Pro clauses (I think you can assume he'll get roster and workout bonuses).  And it only goes up from there if they don't cut him.

Not saying it's a bad contract for either party, I just don't see why some people are holding this up as an example of how bad Stafford's contract is.  It's almost indistinguishable, and I think Kaepernick's NFL skill set is significantly lower than Stafford's.

Last edited 6/6/2014 8:28 AM by MikeOxhard

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Posted: 6/6/2014 8:19 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on 



VinceLombardisGhost wrote:
FireMillen05 wrote: Gotta say I was shocked to hear on espn radio today that Kap has a career completion % of just 58%
Yeah. The folks downplaying Stafford will use "wins", but at some point....numbers have to be considered in conjunction with contract. That's just part of the deal. Again, this throws out the myth for the second year in a row (Flacco was the first) that even the BEST teams don't overpay for a decent QB.

The longer it goes on, the more moderate the Stafford deal will look.
But at some point, Stafford's number have to converted to wins... That's just part of the deal...
(I know you agree with this, I just thought it was worth thinking out load.)

Last edited 6/6/2014 8:20 AM by RickOShea

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Posted: 6/6/2014 9:05 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepern 


Here is Stafford's contract as reported on Rotoworld:
"7/9/2013: Signed a five-year, $76.5 million contract. The deal contains $41.5 million guaranteed, including a $27.5 million signing bonus. 2014: $2 million, 2015: $9.5 million, 2016: $17 million, 2017: $16.5 million, 2018: Free Agent"
www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5132/matthew-stafford

Lets be clear about Colin and why the 49ers have set his contract up this way. Colin has started 26 regular season NFL games. And THEN add in his 3 post-season record (2-1 in 2013 with a loss to the 'Hawks) and 2-1 in 2012 with a loss in the Super Bowl to the Ravens. That is a total of 32 games including hos 6 playoff starts. And that IS important (the playoff starts and wins).

But the 49ers know how their bread is buttered: on defense and the running game.
In 2013 the 49ers threw the ball 406 TOTAL TIMES! Lowest in the league. Seattle was next at 420 attempts . The 3rd LOWEST passing attempts belongs to the Panthers and that was 473 attempts...67 MORE passing attempts then 49ers! That in the equivalent of 2-3 worth of passes NOT thrown by Colin.

In 2012 the 49ers threw the ball 436 times but that was with A. Smith leading at least PART of the season.

Colin is a young game manager until he proves otherwise. And as Vince points out...winning matters so he gets a nice contract on paper. But Colin is a far cry from Andrew Luck. When the going gets tough he gets going with his feet overall. Colin does not impress me as a QB in the NFL. But the 49ers sure as heck do.

Stafford has started 61 regular season games and 1 playoff game. He has one winning season as the starter (2011) out of really three NFL seasons.

Of these two QBs give me the potential of Stafford over Colin. In Colin's 3rd professional season he threw for a 58.4% completion rate in 16 games on 406 throws.

Even with Stafford's issues in 2013 he has the fate of the team on his shoulders. Colin does not. Matt threw the ball 634 times in 2013 with a career-low comp. % of 58.5. Further, Stafford took 23 sacks in 2013 while Colin took 39 sacks (looking at regular season games).

So Colin took 16 MORE sacks on 228 LESS passing attempts. Read that again. In 406 total passing attempts to Matt's 634 Colin took 16 MORE total sacks despite throwing the ball 228 LESS times. And the 49ers OL is great on any measure and Colin has weapons at least equal overall to Stafford's 2013 weapons.

Give me Stafford's potential over Colin's potential in a big way. Heck...even if you look at Stafford 1ft full year as a healthy starter and compare that to Colin's 1st year as a starter Matt took 36 sacks to Colin's 39 sacks and again Matt had 257 MORE passing attempts still.

How can a guy with wheels have so many MORE sacks then Matt on so many fewer passing attempts?

You bet Matt has not won as many games. Not yet. I bet on Stafford over Colin if I have a choice.

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Posted: 6/6/2014 9:06 AM

Re: Niners front office: Geniuses? The REAL numbers on Kaepern 


Stafford got hammered right out the gate here, he was injured his first two seasons for one, for two, we were a constantly rebuilding team with swiss cheese lines, we've had Zero running game...never had one until 2013, Matt had 1 constant/reliable Receiver in Calvin Johnson---our ONLY saving grace, and JUST got other reliable options here in 2014.

now by some major miracle we have been getting 4,500 to 5,000 per season despite all the BS. we have been a freaking MASH unit as far as injuries go and our players *NOT* developing and our young guys staying out of play...BUT

THINK ON THIS. the next time you want to bash Matthew Stafford. We were in every game, with every opponent and never lost a game by more than 3 to 10 points AND was at the top of the division for 3-4 weeks. you don't do that without a hell of a good QB throwing to Calvin and our D keeping us alive.
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