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Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10?

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Posted: 3/25/2014 10:01 AM

Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


When looking at the Lion's offensive personal and considering what they have on that side of the ball does a defensive player hold more value to this team right out of the gates?

They have three good rbs and a fb who played 300-400 snaps last year(I believe?). Planning on a decent amount of two back sets. They also have two TE's they want to trot out as well. The question is how many snaps did a 3rd WR get with the Saints last year, really I think that would tell us a lot. 

All of the personal I've listed above includes 12 personal(1 rb and 2 TE's) 21(2 RB's and 1 TE) 22(2 backs and 2 TE's). Which would mean only two WR's on the field when in these personal groupings.

Now don't get me wrong I think a 3rd-4th WR are definitely a need here, but I do wonder about the amount of snaps they would get and how much "value"(by percentage of snaps played) that player would provide this team.

Like Sporty mentioned in another thread, really setting up to be a true BPA type of draft for the Lions.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 10:26 AM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


I really believe we need the stud WR on the other side of the field from Calvin..... it should have a synergistic effect on our offense like 2+2= 8 not to mention our offense not going in the pooper when and if Calvin misses games. We need defense I am not blind..... but as far as impact a WR a "good one" like M.Evans would have a profound impact for this team in particular. Then draft defense the rest of the way. WE could line up in any of the formations listed above but can guarantee Calvin would be doubled on almost every play with the personal we have now and that wont change unless there is a stud on the other side.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 10:33 AM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


I am with you Mongoose, I highly doubt that if the Lions do draft a WR that he will see much time on the field this season. I believe that grabbing a defensive player in the first round is the best way to go. With that said I also agree with what Sporty said in the other thread, the Lions are now in a position to go BPA. So whom ever the Lions have as the BPA when their pick rolls around I am fine with, I just hope that it is someone who can help the Lions this year and not someone who will spend most of the year on the sidelines.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 11:04 AM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



lionskickarse wrote: I am with you Mongoose, I highly doubt that if the Lions do draft a WR that he will see much time on the field this season. 
You cant possibly believe that a M.Evans or a S.Watkins would not instantly become our 3rd WR or possibly our #2 WR and that they would not have a huge impact on not only our production as a whole but also Calvin's............We have holes all over our defense no doubt but when you look at our offense and its a fact we are crippled when Calvin goes out. Why not fix our one hole on Offense and be dominate in that area then work on the defense with the rest of the Draft? We are a hell of a lot closer to being a offensive juggernaut then we are on being a dominating defense. Its like having a dozen things wrong with the interior of your car as well as one flat tire. You fix the easy part the one that makes you go first then little by little you fix the interior because there is not one interior piece that going to make a dramatic change to how the car moves or performs......but that tire makes everything go.

Last edited 3/25/2014 11:19 AM by NewYorkLion

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Posted: 3/25/2014 11:35 AM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



NewYorkLion wrote: I really believe we need the stud WR on the other side of the field from Calvin..... it should have a synergistic effect on our offense like 2+2= 8 not to mention our offense not going in the pooper when and if Calvin misses games. We need defense I am not blind..... but as far as impact a WR a "good one" like M.Evans would have a profound impact for this team in particular. Then draft defense the rest of the way. WE could line up in any of the formations listed above but can guarantee Calvin would be doubled on almost every play with the personal we have now and that wont change unless there is a stud on the other side.
Did we just not sign Golden Tate? Have you ever seen him play, because it seems you have him pegged as a slot guy just because of size. Durham, Fuller, Ross are all developing as well. No need to take WR @ 10. We can get a good future #2 in the 2nd round (Matthews)
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Posted: 3/25/2014 12:04 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


Air Coryell is still the base passing concept mongoose, so we'll still get a good dose of 11 personnel packages (3 WR) and 4 Vert as well.

 photo cc0a2192-d583-4ea3-a69c-6bd4f4f16e21_zpsc009844b.png

 photo 391ba6b2-9092-4d72-8161-1fc880d56c1a_zps78e56e87.png



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

Last edited 3/25/2014 12:06 PM by LionsSlashWings

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Posted: 3/25/2014 12:10 PM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



NewYorkLion wrote:
lionskickarse wrote: I am with you Mongoose, I highly doubt that if the Lions do draft a WR that he will see much time on the field this season. 
You cant possibly believe that a M.Evans or a S.Watkins would not instantly become our 3rd WR or possibly our #2 WR and that they would not have a huge impact on not only our production as a whole but also Calvin's............We have holes all over our defense no doubt but when you look at our offense and its a fact we are crippled when Calvin goes out. Why not fix our one hole on Offense and be dominate in that area then work on the defense with the rest of the Draft? We are a hell of a lot closer to being a offensive juggernaut then we are on being a dominating defense. Its like having a dozen things wrong with the interior of your car as well as one flat tire. You fix the easy part the one that makes you go first then little by little you fix the interior because there is not one interior piece that going to make a dramatic change to how the car moves or performs......but that tire makes everything go.
First the Lions are looking to run more 2 back sets and the coaches have said as much, also the Siants ran alot of 2 TE sets which the Lions are also set to do.  When those two things are combined it means that the Lions will probable spend more time in 2 WRs sets then they will 3 WRs sets, especially when you consider that the TEs or RBs can slide into the slot position.  Also Tate was signed to be the #2 WR and I highly doubt that either Watkins or Evens would beat him out for the position, which would mean that any Rookie WR would at best be the #3 WR.  Add this all up I do not see much of an impact from a WR, where as a Rookie S or OLB both could bring immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 12:22 PM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 




lionskickarse wrote: When those two things are combined it means that the Lions will probable spend more time in 2 WRs sets then they will 3 WRs sets,


Not necessarily (see photo's above).

Don't kid yourself, the Saints were still, by in large a passing team 1st & foremost. That's why you have a base offensive philosophy. In the case with the Saints?..it was the Air Coryell passing attack with a little dose of the West Coast Offense, just as Linehan's was.

Now what you do within the context of the scheme is where Lombardi & Linehan vary. So where as Linehan ran a one-back system, featuring a primary & secondary RB as the 2 main features?..Payton on the other hand ran multiple backs.

Think about it?..

Robert Smith & Melwede Moore = Joique Bell and Reggie Bush... that's Linehan for ya.

And then there's Payton, who featured multiple backs within the context of his base scheme...ie.. Cory Ivory, Pierre Thomas, D.Sproles, Mark Ingram... and at one point, Reggie himself.



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

Last edited 3/25/2014 12:29 PM by LionsSlashWings

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Posted: 3/25/2014 12:28 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


Joe Lombardi on how similar this offense will look compared to New Orleans':

"I think there will be a lot of similarities, but there are going to be some differences. Like I said, I came in and sat in on that first offensive staff meeting and I was the only one who really knew our terminology and the way we did things. As you start talking about the offense and presenting it to the staff, all of a sudden these ideas start coming at you and, you know, you think about them. I think there will certainly be some adjustments"- J.Lombardi



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

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Posted: 3/25/2014 12:31 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


And Reggie will still be used the same way he was under Linehan, which coincidentally is the way the Saints used Sproles just as well..

- out wide, out in the flat on screens & swing passes, and out of the slot (again see photo above).



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

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Posted: 3/25/2014 1:03 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



Stafford2CJ7 wrote:
NewYorkLion wrote: I really believe we need the stud WR on the other side of the field from Calvin..... it should have a synergistic effect on our offense like 2+2= 8 not to mention our offense not going in the pooper when and if Calvin misses games. We need defense I am not blind..... but as far as impact a WR a "good one" like M.Evans would have a profound impact for this team in particular. Then draft defense the rest of the way. WE could line up in any of the formations listed above but can guarantee Calvin would be doubled on almost every play with the personal we have now and that wont change unless there is a stud on the other side.
Did we just not sign Golden Tate? Have you ever seen him play, because it seems you have him pegged as a slot guy just because of size. Durham, Fuller, Ross are all developing as well. No need to take WR @ 10. We can get a good future #2 in the 2nd round (Matthews)
one thing being overlooked here is injuries which always haunt us at the worst times, even Calvin Johnson had knee AND finger injuries last season and he IS our #1, so taking a WR that early isn't as loopy as it might initially seem...plus no-one knows how durable Tate is going to be here in the NFL  he and Calvin are going to take a pounding being only 2 star receivers in our ranks...with Tate being smaller, rival opponents will try to take him out...probably more than CJ who is probably still going to be recovering somewhat...if he goes out after having his fingers crunched or hit hard too many times by Matt's rocket ball, we can be without him a few games...fact is, we can use another sure thing at WR!!!!

we NEED 3 solid guys to spread the D and give Stafford many able weapons...help take MORE pressure off Calvin, AND have a solid man in case of injury...it'sa damn good idea.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 1:19 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


Found the Saints snap counts for 2013 fwiw. In order (by %)..

TE J.Graham (66.9%)
WR M.Colston - (66.6%) - Calvin?
WR Kenny Stills - (61.2%) - Tate?
RB Pierre Thomas - (50%) - Joique?
TE Ben Watson - (44.1%)
3rd WR Lance Moore - (39.1%)
4th WR R.Meachem - (34.3%)
RB D.Sproles - (31.7%) - Reggie?
WR Nick Toon (17.4%)
RB M.Ingram (15%)

So going by these numbers?...it looks like both the 3rd & 4th WR's saw more playing time than the secondary RB (D.Sproles)

Air Coryell



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

Last edited 3/25/2014 1:21 PM by LionsSlashWings

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Posted: 3/25/2014 1:35 PM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



LionsSlashWings wrote:

lionskickarse wrote: When those two things are combined it means that the Lions will probable spend more time in 2 WRs sets then they will 3 WRs sets,


Not necessarily (see photo's above).

Don't kid yourself, the Saints were still, by in large a passing team 1st & foremost. That's why you have a base offensive philosophy. In the case with the Saints?..it was the Air Coryell passing attack with a little dose of the West Coast Offense, just as Linehan's was.

Now what you do within the context of the scheme is where Lombardi & Linehan vary. So where as Linehan ran a one-back system, featuring a primary & secondary RB as the 2 main features?..Payton on the other hand ran multiple backs.

Think about it?..

Robert Smith & Melwede Moore = Joique Bell and Reggie Bush... that's Linehan for ya.

And then there's Payton, who featured multiple backs within the context of his base scheme...ie.. Cory Ivory, Pierre Thomas, D.Sproles, Mark Ingram... and at one point, Reggie himself.
I never said that the Lions were going away from being a passing team.  I instead look at the options that they currently have for that passing attack.  2 RBs, 2TEs and 2 WRs that can be used in a passing attack, while I expect them to change things up I do not believe that we will see as much of the 3 WR set that we have in the past.  Using a base package of 2 WR with a mixture of RBs and TEs filling in the last 3 spots would allowed the Offense the most versatility.

In the end the OP question was which side, defense or offense, would produce the most impact for this season for the Lions first round pick.  IMO that would be the defense side of the ball.  Now this is not say that the Lions do not still need to draft a WR, which I believe that they do, I just do not see a WR taking in the 1st round compared to one taken later as having that big of an impact this season.  In other words I can see Mathews in the 2nd having just as much of an impact as taking Evens in the 1st, I can see taking one of the top S or OLB having a much bigger impact then taking someone on day 2.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 1:38 PM

RE: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


Excellent, excellent research LSW. That is the type of information photos, percentages, etc I was looking for. The fact that Watson got as much snaps as he did, maybe tells me that the Lions could use Fauria split out wide a lot with Pettigrew still in line.

WR definitely in play, but looks like 12 personal with Grahamn split out may have been their most common grouping... Wonder if we see the same here in Detroit or if that 3rd width will be an actual WR instead of Fauria?
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Posted: 3/25/2014 1:43 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



LionsSlashWings wrote: Found the Saints snap counts for 2013 fwiw. In order (by %)..

TE J.Graham (66.9%)
WR M.Colston - (66.6%) - Calvin?
WR Kenny Stills - (61.2%) - Tate?
RB Pierre Thomas - (50%) - Joique?
TE Ben Watson - (44.1%)
3rd WR Lance Moore - (39.1%)
4th WR R.Meachem - (34.3%)
RB D.Sproles - (31.7%) - Reggie?
WR Nick Toon (17.4%)
RB M.Ingram (15%)

So going by these numbers?...it looks like both the 3rd & 4th WR's saw more playing time than the secondary RB (D.Sproles)

Air Coryell
Great find there LSW and that is a perfect example of my point for the OP.  Who is going to have more of an impact a player that sees the field 30% of the snaps for his side of the ball or a player that sees 70% or more?  IMO a player that will see the field for over 50% of the snaps is going to have more of an impact then a player that will see less then 50%.

Also looking at the number it shows what I was saying, the Saints ran more 2 TE and 1 RB sets then they did  any other formation.  If Lombardi holds to that formula then we would see Fauria and Pettigrew spend more time on the field then a #3 WR.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 2:07 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


lionskickarse- It's nearly identical to Linehan's scheme. It really is..

12 personnel (2 TE)?.. check
Air Coryell vertical attack?... check
West Coast horizontal passing concepts?.. check
11 personnel (3 WR)?.. check
QB out of shot-gun?..check 

Same, same, same.

About the only differences (and I mean major one's) are that:

a) Saints ran 21 personnel (2 backs) more, the Lions less.
b) The FB. Saints used Collins, the Lions showed Felton the door
c) Unlike Stafford exclusively in Shot-gun, Bress actually lines up directly under Centre more frequently
d) And that is because the Saints Offense (the whole foundation of it) was predicated around the QB 3 step drop/WR timing route concept.

.. where as Linehan had Stafford in a read & react Offense, scanning the field in front of him (shot-gun).

That's really it guys. These are the 4 big ones.

Everything else is pretty much the same. They are both Pro Style Offenses after all.



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

Last edited 3/25/2014 2:09 PM by LionsSlashWings

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Posted: 3/25/2014 2:53 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



wolfcub36 wrote:
Stafford2CJ7 wrote:
NewYorkLion wrote: I really believe we need the stud WR on the other side of the field from Calvin..... it should have a synergistic effect on our offense like 2+2= 8 not to mention our offense not going in the pooper when and if Calvin misses games. We need defense I am not blind..... but as far as impact a WR a "good one" like M.Evans would have a profound impact for this team in particular. Then draft defense the rest of the way. WE could line up in any of the formations listed above but can guarantee Calvin would be doubled on almost every play with the personal we have now and that wont change unless there is a stud on the other side.
Did we just not sign Golden Tate? Have you ever seen him play, because it seems you have him pegged as a slot guy just because of size. Durham, Fuller, Ross are all developing as well. No need to take WR @ 10. We can get a good future #2 in the 2nd round (Matthews)
one thing being overlooked here is injuries which always haunt us at the worst times, even Calvin Johnson had knee AND finger injuries last season and he IS our #1, so taking a WR that early isn't as loopy as it might initially seem...plus no-one knows how durable Tate is going to be here in the NFL  he and Calvin are going to take a pounding being only 2 star receivers in our ranks...with Tate being smaller, rival opponents will try to take him out...probably more than CJ who is probably still going to be recovering somewhat...if he goes out after having his fingers crunched or hit hard too many times by Matt's rocket ball, we can be without him a few games...fact is, we can use another sure thing at WR!!!!

we NEED 3 solid guys to spread the D and give Stafford many able weapons...help take MORE pressure off Calvin, AND have a solid man in case of injury...it'sa damn good idea.
and that 3rd "solid guy" can be found in the 2-3 rounds of this draft. Reading is fundamental.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 3:06 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



Stafford2CJ7 wrote:
NewYorkLion wrote: I really believe we need the stud WR on the other side of the field from Calvin..... it should have a synergistic effect on our offense like 2+2= 8 not to mention our offense not going in the pooper when and if Calvin misses games. We need defense I am not blind..... but as far as impact a WR a "good one" like M.Evans would have a profound impact for this team in particular. Then draft defense the rest of the way. WE could line up in any of the formations listed above but can guarantee Calvin would be doubled on almost every play with the personal we have now and that wont change unless there is a stud on the other side.
Did we just not sign Golden Tate? Have you ever seen him play, because it seems you have him pegged as a slot guy just because of size. Durham, Fuller, Ross are all developing as well. No need to take WR @ 10. We can get a good future #2 in the 2nd round (Matthews)
Yes I have seen him play.......as a matter of fact since we have signed him I have watched pretty much every play he took part in in 2013. I dont have him pegged as a slot guy, can he play the slot...Yes. Can he play outside...Yes but Tate is not your ideal size for outside but neither was S.Smith and many others its not my point. Tate is not striking fear into the hearts of many defenses. He is a very good sure handed WR that breaks tackles and makes the catch in traffic....I will also tell you that alot of his production and yardage/yac came on broken plays when the play was scrapped and R.Wilson extended plays with his feet and it turned into playground football the same can be said for his production on play action and trickery. we dont have the running game of Seatle. Calvin does it when everyone knows where its going week in week out no trickery no broken plays just this is what we are doing now you try to stop it. We need another sure handed ,tall, fast WR on the otherside. Tate is not stepping in to Calvins role when and if he misses games. We need another WR in the Calvin mold to step in when needed.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 3:22 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 


Also I get the percentages of the Saints plays and personal groupings. I get it. But what is silly is this notion that because Lombardi did it this way in New Orleans means were going to be doing it this way as well. God I hope he is not that stubborn and can adjust to what he has instead of what he had. Its laughable that some would compare Fauria to Graham? I have high hopes for the kid but lets not get ahead of ourselves just yet. There is a reason we did not see him more of hum between the twentys as well as him not being drafted. Maybe we found a gem but he is not Graham. If this was what his plan was I can see a plan of drafting Ebron which I would not be to happy about.
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Posted: 3/25/2014 3:36 PM

Re: Does an impact Defensive Player hold more value at 10? 



NewYorkLion wrote: Also I get the percentages of the Saints plays and personal groupings. I get it. But what is silly is this notion that because Lombardi did it this way in New Orleans means were going to be doing it this way as well. God I hope he is not that stubborn and can adjust to what he has instead of what he had. Its laughable that some would compare Fauria to Graham? I have high hopes for the kid but lets not get ahead of ourselves just yet. There is a reason we did not see him more of hum between the twentys as well as him not being drafted. Maybe we found a gem but he is not Graham. If this was what his plan was I can see a plan of drafting Ebron which I would not be to happy about.
You're talking in circles. And no one's comparing Fauria pound for pound to Graham. All that was suggested was they could look to use Fauria in the vertical passing game in some of the same ways the Saints used Graham.

You play to your players strengths...it's that simple.

Make up your mind.. you either want Lombardi to adjust to what he has... or you don't?



*Suh, Megatron & Best*

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