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Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins?

Posted: 11/14/2012 2:03 PM

Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


Iowa Western has put together a very impressive program in 4 short years.  In hindsight, I don't know that they played any really good teams (5-3 GA Military or 3-6 Trinity Valley would probably be considered IWCC's best opponents), but it beat the crap out of every team they played.  Their closest game was 20 points (55-35 to GM) and they have scored 44 or more points in every game this year (44 against TV).  Outside of the GM and TV games, which were not in doubt, the games were all total blowouts.  Most games, many starters were pulled after half time.

Butler, on the other hand, played a slightly less soft schedule, playing Hutch (twice), Blinn (which finished last in the SWJCFC), and CV and Hutch (who are teams with talent, but flaws).  All in all, I would say the biggest difference in the schedules was Hutch.  Hutch is better than any team IWCC played all year, and Butler beat Hutch twice by 33 and 10 points.  Butler has not been as prolific offensively as IWCC, scoring season lows of 26 and 28 against Hutch and Blinn respectively (although the 26 point game has to be discounted slightly because of extreme wind and cold).  But, Butler has a very capable offense, especially when Dreamius Smith is healthy.  Dreamius has suited up for the last two games, but he was ineffective.   Hard to say if that hamstring will be 100% by game day.  I thought Smith's gait looked better this last week, but he was still largely ineffective.  In any case, Butler's real strength is the D.  Butler's D plays its best ball against the best teams.  In the last five years +/-, Butler has absolutely shut down very, very good Hutch offenses, generally holding Hutch to 10 points or less when Hutch was probably averaging 60 against everyone else. 

So, it's Butler's Good O and very good D against IWCC's very good O and good D. 

Who wins? 

The game is in a dome, so weather is not a factor.  The offenses should be able to operate at maximum ability.  Is that bad for Butler?  I don't know. 

IWCC was exposed for 35 points against a so-so GA Military team, so it's possible that the Butler offense could explode for a bunch of points.  But, IWCC will be amped up, so I'm not going to bank on that.  IWCC is certainly capable of scoring in waves, so they could pull a Pearl River and lay 35 on us.  That's certainly possible, if unlikely.  That Pearl River score pre-dates Schaffner, and the Butler D has been at another level since his arrival.  

I'm a Butler fan, so I'm going to say that Butler takes it 27-21.  I'm not taking my prediction to Vegas, but I have faith that the Butler D will hold another high-octane offense to an underwhelming point total.  Schaffner definitely has his work cut out for him in this game.

Is it December 2, yet?
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Posted: 11/15/2012 10:43 PM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


Who would be the underdog in this contest?

Let me be different here... I'm going with IWCC 38-35 in OT... Just because they have the top kicker in the country...

But then again IWCC has never faced someone with the caliber of Butler, so they might be in for a shell shock...

Last edited 11/16/2012 10:45 AM by rounders23

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  • bandrat
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Posted: 11/17/2012 10:26 PM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


I look for Butler to win by 14.
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Posted: 11/18/2012 12:02 AM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


I've not seen either of these two teams play this year.  But just looking at the stats on paper, in my opinion if Butler can't put this one away early, this could be anyones game.  I think Butler is probably favored to win just because their defense is pretty rock solid, but if IWCC smells blood in the water come the 4th quarter, I wouldn't put it past them to run off 2 quick scores and a field goal to come from behind and steal one.  They certainly have enough offensive firepower to pull something like that.   Especially if their kicker is as good as they say...   I think it all comes down to whether their defense can stop Butler long enough to give their offense a chance. 

Last edited 11/18/2012 12:10 AM by NJCAAfootballfan

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Posted: 11/19/2012 11:20 AM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 



NJCAAfootballfan wrote:

I've not seen either of these two teams play this year.  But just looking at the stats on paper, in my opinion if Butler can't put this one away early, this could be anyones game.  I think Butler is probably favored to win just because their defense is pretty rock solid, but if IWCC smells blood in the water come the 4th quarter, I wouldn't put it past them to run off 2 quick scores and a field goal to come from behind and steal one.  They certainly have enough offensive firepower to pull something like that.   Especially if their kicker is as good as they say...   I think it all comes down to whether their defense can stop Butler long enough to give their offense a chance. 

Interesting perspective, but, having seen Butler play, I can tell you that Butler is a slow starting team.  Before the KJCCC playoffs, I'm pretty sure Butler hadn't allowed any second half scores (maybe against Dodge City early in the season -- I didn't watch that game). 

In my opinion, Butler has to keep it close in the first half.  If IWCC doesn't build an early lead, I don't think they'll win the game.

Did anyone see the Hutch/IWCC scrimmage this year?  I would love to get a Hutch fan's thoughts on IWCC.

Last edited 11/19/2012 11:21 AM by Butler79

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Posted: 11/19/2012 11:49 AM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


I like what you said about the second half, 79, and I think you're right... If IWCC is trailing at half the game is over. Heck, IWCC hasn't really trailed once this year, have they? Their starters haven't had to play a full game. They went into the 2nd quarter of the game against GA Mil tied, and their conference championship game was scoreless after one quarter (in the same horrible weather as ours was).

I don't think IWCC has played against a real defense once this year, so we'll see how Butler handles them. Really, from the limited hightlights on youtube they remind me of Hutch a few years ago - stud WR, very quick RB, and a capable QB. Shutting down their two biggest playmakers and putting pressure on the QB (which we know Butler can do to just about anybody) could really shake up IWCC's plan.

The only points Butler allowed in the second half during the regular season...
a garbage time TD to AFP

During the playoffs they allowed 4 second-half scores...
-3 in the championship game during that bizarre streak in the 3rd quarter when the Grizzlies turned the ball over three times in a row (well, one was a partially blocked punt) - two field goals and one TD - not a bad job by the defense considering Hutch started those drives at Butler's 30, 17, and 3, although I'm sure Schaffner wanted the d to create a takeaway.
-one to garden early in the 3rd quarter

With all the speculation and the unknown factor of facing a new opponent, I'm very much looking forward to the bowl game at the UNI-dome.
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Posted: 11/19/2012 1:36 PM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 



Irish2009 wrote: I like what you said about the second half, 79, and I think you're right... If IWCC is trailing at half the game is over. Heck, IWCC hasn't really trailed once this year, have they? Their starters haven't had to play a full game. They went into the 2nd quarter of the game against GA Mil tied, and their conference championship game was scoreless after one quarter (in the same horrible weather as ours was).

I don't think IWCC has played against a real defense once this year, so we'll see how Butler handles them. Really, from the limited hightlights on youtube they remind me of Hutch a few years ago - stud WR, very quick RB, and a capable QB. Shutting down their two biggest playmakers and putting pressure on the QB (which we know Butler can do to just about anybody) could really shake up IWCC's plan.

The only points Butler allowed in the second half during the regular season...
a garbage time TD to AFP

During the playoffs they allowed 4 second-half scores...
-3 in the championship game during that bizarre streak in the 3rd quarter when the Grizzlies turned the ball over three times in a row (well, one was a partially blocked punt) - two field goals and one TD - not a bad job by the defense considering Hutch started those drives at Butler's 30, 17, and 3, although I'm sure Schaffner wanted the d to create a takeaway.
-one to garden early in the 3rd quarter

With all the speculation and the unknown factor of facing a new opponent, I'm very much looking forward to the bowl game at the UNI-dome.
I was going to comment on the Hutch scores in the second half of that game, but I thought it would clutter up the point.  You hit the nail on the head, though.  Those scores were exclusively due to turnovers.  I'm not sure that the D even gave up a first down on any of those drives.  Unless you can force a TO or block a kick, you can't stop someone from scoring when he starts in your red zone.  The D played very well to hold Hutch to 13 points off of those three turnovers.  If we would have had a big lead, Hutch would have pressed it on fourth down (rather than kicking FGs) and probably scored only once (the TD from the 3 yard line). 

The fact is, the vast majority of the scoring against Butler has been in the first half -- probably a hell of a lot of it in the first Q.  Once the D gets settled in and makes the necessary adjustments, it's hard to score on.

I think the comparison to Hutch is apt.  The only glaring difference between IWCC and past Hutch teams is that past Hutch teams have been much more run heavy offenses.  Offensively, I think this IWCC team is more like this year's Hutch team, but with a stud WR.  Barnes and Waters appear to have similar skill sets, and both teams have solid ground games.  Hutch has good receivers, but no one who stacks up to Deon Long.  Although, I don't think Deon Long stacks up to Cordarelle Patterson, and Butler did just fine stopping him twice per year for two consecutive years. 

This is going to be a fun matchup -- Oregon vs. Alabama style.
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Posted: 11/21/2012 11:26 AM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


I'm eager for this matchup. New team, new venue (for me -- not for the old boosters since Butler played at the UNI Dome in 1989) and a national championship on the line. I think we're going to find out a lot about both teams. It should be a good game with the talent level that is going to be on the field. I imagine there will be a who's who of coaches at this game being on a Sunday. Honestly, Dec. 2 can't come soon enough.
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Posted: 11/21/2012 3:21 PM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


If I remember correctly the Hutch Iowa western preseason scrimmage was won by Iowa like 21-7.
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Posted: 11/28/2012 11:46 AM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


I am really suprised by the lack of posting here.  We have three teams in bowl games, and there's barely a post per day over the last week or so. 

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Posted: 12/02/2012 5:51 PM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


The only team that could have beaten Iowa Western was Grand Rapids Community College (Twice last year), but the school administration killed the best program in the country. I remember what y'all were saying last year when GRCC was 11-0. I enjoyed Iowa Western kicking the crap out of Butler very much. They would have suffered an even worse fate if Butler had the balls to play GRCC last year.
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Posted: 12/02/2012 6:31 PM

Re: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


Welcome to the boards. If you know as much about junior college as you think you know about junior college, then you know that money is hard to come by and bowls have to survive on gate. Apparently, Grand Rapids didn't even have enough support to keep the program going, so what makes you think they'd load up the buses to Kansas and support their team in a postseason bowl? Butler had no control over the opponent. The bowl committee wanted teams that would bring fans. Trinity Valley was a very worthy opponent. If you want to complain about that, then you call up Fort Scott's athletic administration and give them an earful. I could understand complaining about not playing in a national title game, but after that.... really? Who cares? Glad you enjoyed the win. Stay classy and come back often with your knowledge and insight.
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Posted: 12/02/2012 8:46 PM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


You make me laugh there in Lollipop Land. Merry Christmas my brother.
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Posted: 12/02/2012 10:04 PM

RE: Butler/Iowa Western -- who wins? 


1) We aren't brothers.
2) Was I wrong? Or do you just want to attempt to humor me with what you thought was a funny comeback. Go to the Citizens Bank Bowl web page, look up how their bowl committee is made up and what school they are affiliated with and then come back and tell me how Butler had control over their opponent, genius.
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