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Re: Butler/Hutch

Posted: 10/25/2012 1:03 PM

Re: Butler/Hutch 


Butler 79 wondered why Hutch isn't dominating the conference on defense if they are so good.  The answer is in the point 79 himself made earlier about whether the Hutch D just looks better against the weaker teams or if it is really the same D that gave up points to Ville and Garden.  His point is a good one. 

Hutch gives up exactly the same 2.0 yds per rush as Butler.  The .8 yds difference per play comes from the long passes Hutch has given up, especially early in the year.  Butler has yielded 4 league TD passes over 30 yds and Hutch 6.  Three of those 6 came against Garden early.  Hutch also has given up 2 long KO return TD's while Butler has not.  The question is whether the Hutch pass D has matured to match its physical ability or if they will once again revert when matched up against Blue and co.  Hutch's chances rest on not giving up the long pass play.
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Posted: 10/25/2012 2:02 PM

Re: Butler/Hutch 



jhcfan wrote: Butler 79 wondered why Hutch isn't dominating the conference on defense if they are so good.  The answer is in the point 79 himself made earlier about whether the Hutch D just looks better against the weaker teams or if it is really the same D that gave up points to Ville and Garden.  His point is a good one. 

Hutch gives up exactly the same 2.0 yds per rush as Butler.  The .8 yds difference per play comes from the long passes Hutch has given up, especially early in the year.  Butler has yielded 4 league TD passes over 30 yds and Hutch 6.  Three of those 6 came against Garden early.  Hutch also has given up 2 long KO return TD's while Butler has not.  The question is whether the Hutch pass D has matured to match its physical ability or if they will once again revert when matched up against Blue and co.  Hutch's chances rest on not giving up the long pass play.
Good points, as usual. 

However, I would take my comment one step further.  Does it really answer my question to compare yourself to Butler's D and say "see, we're pretty much as good as you statistically."?  First, Hutch is not statistically similar to Butler in the one statistic that matters most -- points allowed.  But, even if we write off a few early season slip ups and assume that Hutch's D has it figured out and is, in fact, as good as Butler -- is that good enough?

Butler's starting DL has no ranked prospects on it (I think we have one two star and one three star, but both are undersized freshman DEs who do not start).  Hutch has at least two 4 star DTs who are being recruited by SEC teams.  I don't know about the rest of the roster, but the Longino guy is a three star LB, too.  (For what it's worth, Tommy Sanders and Rahman Swain are three and two stars, respectively, although I think they're underrated).

Also, this is not Butler's best D.  2.0 yards per rush is not a normal statistic for Butler.  Irish is great with statistics, so maybe he can whip up the stats for the last few years' defenses.  I would guess that we have been closer to 1.0 yards per rush in past years.  I know we've had several games where we allowed NEGATIVE rushing yards.  I would also guess that our yards per play, total yards, and points allowed are higher this year than in years past.

So, what I hear you saying is that Hutch's D that is loaded with high star talent is only nearly as good as Butler's least talented D in the last 5 years +/-.  Are you satisfied that Hutch's D coaches need significantly more talent than Butler's coaches to field a D that is only nearly as good (and only if you discount a few early defensive meltdowns)?  

I wouldn't be.
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Posted: 10/25/2012 4:14 PM

Re: Butler/Hutch 


jhcfan wrote: 
Hutch gives up exactly the same 2.0 yds per rush as Butler.  

Butler has yielded 4 league TD passes over 30 yds and Hutch 6.  
Butler's rush defense is 2.2 yards per attempt.
Hutch's rush defense is 3.2 yards per attempt.

Butler has allowed 11 total TDs this year.
Hutch has allowed 23 total.

Butler79 wrote:

Also, this is not Butler's best D.  2.0 yards per rush is not a normal statistic for Butler.  Irish is great with statistics, so maybe he can whip up the stats for the last few years' defenses.  I would guess that we have been closer to 1.0 yards per rush in past years.  I know we've had several games where we allowed NEGATIVE rushing yards.  I would also guess that our yards per play, total yards, and points allowed are higher this year than in years past.

So, what I hear you saying is that Hutch's D that is loaded with high star talent is only nearly as good as Butler's least talented D in the last 5 years +/-.  Are you satisfied that Hutch's D coaches need significantly more talent than Butler's coaches to field a D that is only nearly as good (and only if you discount a few early defensive meltdowns)?  

I wouldn't be.



This late in the year, and I don't get why Butler's D is still getting a little ragging.  Here are the numbers for their last 4 really good years, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011...

2007
pts/gm, 9
yds/rush, 2.2
yds/gm, 221
sacks, 67
turnovers, 38

2008
pts/gm, 11
yds/rush, 2.4
yds/gm, 220
sacks, 45
turnovers, 25

2010
pts/gm, 9.5
yds/rush, 2.2
yds/gm, 227
sacks, 48
turnovers, 32

2011
pts/gm, 8.7
yds/rush, 1.9
yds/gm, 222
sacks, 50
turnovers, 35 

2012
pts/gm, 9.4
yds/rush, 2.2
yds/gm, 235
sacks, 28
turnovers, 31

Nothing too out of the ordinary here.  It's different than it's looked in years past, but it's still very suffocating.  I don't feel like posting right now, but for the past 5 years we've heard this posturing from Hutch - both teams with similar offensive and defensive stats... and I always say it boils down to one thing... Hutch hasn't been able to run the ball, always well below their average mark.  Heck, I even think they were held to negative yards one year.

Last edited 10/25/2012 7:41 PM by Irish2009

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Posted: 10/25/2012 5:08 PM

Re: Butler/Hutch 


The only stat I see that sticks out is the number of sacks Butler has this year, and it points out to the same topic that we had at the beginning of the season -- the defensive line. There's probably a few reasons why the sacks aren't there, but mainly it's because Butler doesn't have the same playmakers on the front line as we've had in the past. Does that mean the defense isn't as good as in year's past? Not at all. I still will take this defense above any in the conference. Butler has shut down the opposition week in and week out and I expect nothing different on Saturday at Hutch.

I've heard every year that Hutch can do this and that on offense and then when they play Butler, they get shut down. The only time I've seen Hutch's offense have any life is the first half of last year's Region VI game. They ran just about everything through Patterson, but then when the defense started pounding him, he checked out and the offense sputtered. Hutch is going to need more than one Patterson to beat Butler.

Right now, the best offensive player I've seen this season is Javess Blue. He does something every week that makes me in awe. He can beat the defensive back deep or he can beat him underneath. This kid should be playing on Sundays. He's that talented. If I were Hutch, I'd be worried about how they plan on stopping him and the Butler offense and if they can't, then I'd be trying to figure out how to keep pace with them scoring against the Grizzly defense. Good luck with that....

The only way Hutch has a chance of winning this game is if Butler shoots itself in the foot with turnovers... and if Hutch gets the gifts, they better finish them off with points on the other end.
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