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Last 49ers mock

Posted: 03/18/2013 8:44 PM

Last 49ers mock 


2. (34) Eric Reid FS, LSU
2. (41) Kawann Short DE, Purdue
**Trade 31 to Buffalo for 41 and 71
2. (61) Jordan Reed TE, Florida
3. (71) Logan Ryan CB, Rutgers
3. (74) *trade for a 2014 2nd 
3. (78) Quinton Patton, WR Louisianna Tech
*trade 93, 128 and 164 for 78
4. (131) JJ Wilcox SS, Georgia Southern
5. (157) *Trade to the Cleveland Browns for Colt McCoy
7th rounders---who cares!

We add:
-a starting calibre FS
-a dominant DE to learn from Cowboy
-a perfect TE2 for our system who is a matchup nightmare and a better receiving option than Walker
-a tough, physical CB to take over next season
-a talented WR to add to our system
-a tough as nails SS to maybe take over for Whitner in a season
-a good, young backup Qb
-another 2014 2nd to go along with the pick we get from KC

How is that for a haul?? And we aren't done yet:

**trade Chris Culliver and a 2014 1st and 3rd to the NY Jets for Darrelle Revis. Sign Revis to a 5 yr, 70m contract. 

**cut Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Perrish Cox

**sign Nnamdi Asomouga and Charles Woodson to 1 year contracts

I still think we go with a vet kicker (Phil Dawson) and a vet OG (Leonard Davis) 

QB- Kaepernick, McCoy, Tolzien

RB- Gore, Hunter, James, Dixon
FB- Miller

WR- Crabtree, Williams, Jenkins
WR- Boldin, Manningham, Patton
TE- Davis, Reed, Celek

LT- Staley
LG- Iupati, Davis 
C- Goodwin, Kilgore
RG- Boone, Looney
RT- Davis

RDE- Smith, Short
NT- Dorsey, Williams
LDE- McDonald, Tukuafu

LOLB- Brooks, Haralson, Wilhoite
ILB- Bowman, Skuta
ILB- Willis
ROLB- Smith, Fleming, Johnson

LCB- Revis, Brown, Brock
SS- Woodson, Spillman
FS- Reid, Dahl, Robinson
RCB- AsomoughaRyan

K- Dawson
P- Lee
LS- Jennings
KR- Williams
PR- James

Too much???

Last edited 03/18/2013 9:31 PM by Kaepernick7

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Posted: 03/19/2013 7:11 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


Pretty extensive work you did here.  I do like a lot of it. 
I, like Pudding, think Woodson would be better served at FS.  And in this scenario, I think he could start there, and Reid could start at SS then move to FS when Wilcox is ready (who doesn't show up on your Depth Chart, btw).  Overall, not a bad plan though.
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  • mrmagicmike4life
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Posted: 03/19/2013 8:07 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


I like the job you did I know what kind of work and research these entail, I also appreciate the fact that you listened to me about the Buffalo trade, Great Job! but just as a nitpick I care about the 7th round! Our starting fullback was a 7th round pick, there are some quality finds to be had there like Shannon Sharpe, Marques Colston, Donald Driver and Jay Ratliff, 3 of which were major contributors to Super Bowl wins, my point, don't discredit any pick from any round they all matter. Again, Great Job!
I was MagicMike when Channing Tatum was a NOBODY!
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Posted: 03/19/2013 8:27 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


I still don't think anyone will have to give up that much for Revis.  The Jets haven't unloaded him yet because they aren't getting what they want.  They will start getting desperate soon and he will go cheap.  The Jets aren't going to give him a long term deal so he will walk next year costing them 9 million against their cap.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 8:29 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


oh and nice analysis and thought put into your draft and offseason moves.  you never know what could happen....
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Posted: 03/19/2013 9:19 AM

RE: Last 49ers mock 


i can believe teams are offering a 1st rounder....NEXT YEAR though, i can't see them getting a 2013 first rounder.

don't think that deal is realistic and i don't see the logic in trading a young talent like culliver who makes relatively very little money. i think you keep players like that, not trade away. that's a steep price to pay in salary for revis also and i don't see us being able to do that within our salary structure.

"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 03/19/2013 9:20 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


I like the first couple picks (Reid seems like a good fit for the system, and Short is on the short-list of end of-1st, early 2nd round DT that could fit the 49ers scheme), although I'm not sure the trade down is necessary to have the extra pick for Reed, especially since Short could be gone by 41. Baalke's philosophy has been not to trade down if you like a guy at a spot, and I could see him simply going Reid at #31 and Short at #34.

The reason I'm not enamoured with the trade is that Reed is pretty small for a TE (6'3, 236), and he didn't exactly blaze his 40 (4.72), which might limit his ability be a true deep threat up the seam, something Walker did exceptionally well. Reed does have good pass-catching abilities, but his blocking may be suspect at the next level (he showed effort, but his lack of size and occasionally poor technique got him blasted by bigger lineman), and he was a pretty one-dimensional route runner from what I've seen (I noticed him while watching various videos of Gilislee earlier). I think you underestimate how competently versatile Walker was. Reed might have a resume that says he can be versatile, but if you watch him, I'm not sure all his versatility projects to the pros.

In any case, given the question marks, I think 2nd round is too high to pick him for the 49ers, imo. If he's going to be used as an Aaron Hernandez type of slot receiver, maybe a team takes his upside in the late 2nd, but he's not even in Hernandez' league (much slower, far less polished in his route running). I'd rather look at a guy like Kelce in the 3rd (Kelce would be considered a 1st round option if not for his character issues, which would need to be vetted, of course). Kelce's got the size and speed to fit the types of schemes the 49ers run. He may not be quite the swiss-army knife Walker was, but that shouldn't be the only criteria for selecting a TE. Kelce, if he lives up to his potential, is on par with guys like Ertz.. he may be even a better blocker, though (Kelce's got a little nasty in him).

I like Ryan as a mid-round CB, but he could climb into the late 2nd if there's a run on CB. Ryan's main issue is that he ran a mediocre 40 (4.56), and chose not to run again at his pro-day. His film says he plays with enough speed, and, despite playing at Rutgers, he has some nice film against higher level opponents (e.g., he had a good game against a struggling Tyler Wilson and Arkansas).

The trade for Patton is a creative one, although I think Patton is long gone before the #78 pick (Patton is rated as a solid 2nd rounder, and a fringe 1st by some scouting services). Patton helped his stock immensely in the post-bowl circuit (Senior Bowl, Combine, etc.). If he aces private workouts, he's not making it anywhere close to the 3rd round. Not with the emphasis on passing around the league. A more likely target at #78 might be someone like Markus Wheaton, who has also done well, but may slip below the other WR due to his size. He won't slip far, though, and he, too, could be gone if there's a run on WR. I think Patterson and Austin are the sure-fire 1st rounders, with Keenan Allen a likely 1st pending his again delayed workout. DeAndre Hopkins, Patton, Hunter.. these guys are the fringe 1st to mid-2nd round guys (could go as high as the mid 20's down to the mid 40's, imo). Robert Woods, Terrance Williams.. these guys are just a notch below the prior tier, but could move up with some good pro-days or private workouts. Then there's a whole tier of 2nd to 3rd round guys, like Wheaton, Hamilton, Rogers, etc.

I think you're under-selling Wilcox, potentially, too. Wilcox is carrying a high-3rd round grade across a lot of scouting sites. I honestly haven't seen a lot of Wilcox (don't watch Georgia Southern much), but I have watched his combine videos, and he looks pretty smooth and athletic. If he's there in the 4th, great. There are several safeties graded around that range (a deep safety class), so there are other options. The only question mark I have on Wilcox is his instincts and knowledge for the position. His resume says he's changed positions twice and he played at a small school. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but something that needs to be watched as he goes through his pre-draft workouts, etc.

I don't care for the trade to get Colt McCoy. McCoy has shown to have a rather weak arm, and he lacks both size and athleticism. Tolzein has two seasons in this system and underrated athleticism (he did decently at the combine). Tolzein is sort of an Andy Dalton clone (right down to the red hair), and Harbaugh liked Dalton in the draft that he took Kaepernick. I don't see the need for McCoy. He has a WC pedigree (at least from his time in Cleveland), but outside of that, I'd pass. He might be a great coach one day. tongue

Finally, I don't see, financially, how the team manages to land Revis. The cuts don't work. Rogers would be $6.3 million in dead money against the cap (or a minimum of $2 million, with the other $4 being against next year), so that's not happening. Whitner doesn't save enough on his own.. not if you're signing another player to play SS (and I've said numerous times, signing Woodson to play SS is a mistake, no matter how often you cite that same one article and Wikipedia). Trading Culliver might help, value wise, in a trade, but cap wise, he's only costing about $750K. I think the Jets also really want at least one pick this year. Tampa has come out and said they have not ruled out giving up their #13 pick this year for Revis, so a 1st and 3rd next year, even with Culliver, won't likely match the package Tampa may offer.

Overall.. a pretty solid mock. I think it's overly ambitious and a tad unrealistic (mostly in the Revis pursuit), but lots of good thoughts on the player needs for the team. Now, if we can just get you off the Woodson at SS angle. biggrin
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Posted: 03/19/2013 9:21 AM

RE: Last 49ers mock 



higherwarrior wrote: i can believe teams are offering a 1st rounder....NEXT YEAR though, i can't see them getting a 2013 first rounder.

don't think that deal is realistic and i don't see the logic in trading a young talent like culliver who makes relatively very little money. i think you keep players like that, not trade away. that's a steep price to pay in salary for revis also and i don't see us being able to do that within our salary structure.
I noted this in my last response, but Tampa is considering giving their 2013 1st rounder.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 9:24 AM

RE: Last 49ers mock 


really. wow. that's steep.

"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 03/19/2013 9:55 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 



pudding wrote: I like the first couple picks (Reid seems like a good fit for the system, and Short is on the short-list of end of-1st, early 2nd round DT that could fit the 49ers scheme), although I'm not sure the trade down is necessary to have the extra pick for Reed, especially since Short could be gone by 41. Baalke's philosophy has been not to trade down if you like a guy at a spot, and I could see him simply going Reid at #31 and Short at #34.

The reason I'm not enamoured with the trade is that Reed is pretty small for a TE (6'3, 236), and he didn't exactly blaze his 40 (4.72), which might limit his ability be a true deep threat up the seam, something Walker did exceptionally well. Reed does have good pass-catching abilities, but his blocking may be suspect at the next level (he showed effort, but his lack of size and occasionally poor technique got him blasted by bigger lineman), and he was a pretty one-dimensional route runner from what I've seen (I noticed him while watching various videos of Gilislee earlier). I think you underestimate how competently versatile Walker was. Reed might have a resume that says he can be versatile, but if you watch him, I'm not sure all his versatility projects to the pros.

In any case, given the question marks, I think 2nd round is too high to pick him for the 49ers, imo. If he's going to be used as an Aaron Hernandez type of slot receiver, maybe a team takes his upside in the late 2nd, but he's not even in Hernandez' league (much slower, far less polished in his route running). I'd rather look at a guy like Kelce in the 3rd (Kelce would be considered a 1st round option if not for his character issues, which would need to be vetted, of course). Kelce's got the size and speed to fit the types of schemes the 49ers run. He may not be quite the swiss-army knife Walker was, but that shouldn't be the only criteria for selecting a TE. Kelce, if he lives up to his potential, is on par with guys like Ertz.. he may be even a better blocker, though (Kelce's got a little nasty in him).

I like Ryan as a mid-round CB, but he could climb into the late 2nd if there's a run on CB. Ryan's main issue is that he ran a mediocre 40 (4.56), and chose not to run again at his pro-day. His film says he plays with enough speed, and, despite playing at Rutgers, he has some nice film against higher level opponents (e.g., he had a good game against a struggling Tyler Wilson and Arkansas).

The trade for Patton is a creative one, although I think Patton is long gone before the #78 pick (Patton is rated as a solid 2nd rounder, and a fringe 1st by some scouting services). Patton helped his stock immensely in the post-bowl circuit (Senior Bowl, Combine, etc.). If he aces private workouts, he's not making it anywhere close to the 3rd round. Not with the emphasis on passing around the league. A more likely target at #78 might be someone like Markus Wheaton, who has also done well, but may slip below the other WR due to his size. He won't slip far, though, and he, too, could be gone if there's a run on WR. I think Patterson and Austin are the sure-fire 1st rounders, with Keenan Allen a likely 1st pending his again delayed workout. DeAndre Hopkins, Patton, Hunter.. these guys are the fringe 1st to mid-2nd round guys (could go as high as the mid 20's down to the mid 40's, imo). Robert Woods, Terrance Williams.. these guys are just a notch below the prior tier, but could move up with some good pro-days or private workouts. Then there's a whole tier of 2nd to 3rd round guys, like Wheaton, Hamilton, Rogers, etc.

I think you're under-selling Wilcox, potentially, too. Wilcox is carrying a high-3rd round grade across a lot of scouting sites. I honestly haven't seen a lot of Wilcox (don't watch Georgia Southern much), but I have watched his combine videos, and he looks pretty smooth and athletic. If he's there in the 4th, great. There are several safeties graded around that range (a deep safety class), so there are other options. The only question mark I have on Wilcox is his instincts and knowledge for the position. His resume says he's changed positions twice and he played at a small school. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but something that needs to be watched as he goes through his pre-draft workouts, etc.




I completely agree with you regarding Jordan Reed & Wilcox.
I think a better strategy here might be Reid at 31, Short at 34, Rambo at 61, and then Travis Kelce (or Vance McDonald) for the "Swiss Army Knife" TE-hyrbid in Round 3...if thats what Baalke & Co. think we need to replace Walker.

McDonald interests me a lot, he's a big (6'4, 267), super athletic (4.69, 31 reps) guy.  Haven't seen him too much on tape, other than at the Senior Bowl & combine, so i can't speak to his blocking, but there's definitely some tools to work with there...

Last edited 03/19/2013 9:56 AM by NashvilleNiner

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Posted: 03/19/2013 11:00 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


One note about Eric Reid. He has a solid body of work, but many who do film study on him feel he doesn't have the instincts to be a deep cover (free) safety. He reacts slowly to his reads, and while he may 'get' there, to make a tackle, it's often late and after significant RAC yardage has been accumulated. He's physical, though, and he does play both the run and pass. His best position might be SS in the pros, though. He'd be a good fit for the 49ers system, though, as they want physical safeties that can mirror coverage (play both downhill and over the top, visa versa with the other safety).

I might like Cyprien better than Reid, even though he's also more of a true SS, and I think Swearinger is underrated (he's got a bit of that Goldson "I want to run you over" streak in him). None of these guys are true FS, but that may not be a bad thing given how the 49ers have been scouting the position (i.e., no interest in a pure cover safety, like Huff, thus far).
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Posted: 03/19/2013 11:41 AM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


I feel like safety prospects are a bit like middle infield prospects in baseball, in that most of them aren't projected to remain on shortstop (the more valuable, hard-to-fill skillset) even if they played there in high school or college...most end up moving to second or third or the outfield (if they can hit enough). Similarly, it seems like most safety prospects just don't have the skillset to project as a "true" free or cover safety, which might make filling Goldson's absence in the draft somewhat difficult.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 12:16 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


I like a lot of what you did, Short at 41 would be a steal but I would not trade for Revis and would not cut Rogers or Whitner. Giving up Culliver, a 1st, a 3rd, and giving Revis a mega contract? No thank you, not when we will have a lot of our own top players to extend in the near future. I do like McCoy but probably wouldn't give up a 5th for him unless Harbaugh really likes him. Last, like others have said, if Woodson comes to the 49ers its to play FS.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 12:19 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 



pudding wrote: (i.e., no interest in a pure cover safety, like Huff, thus far).
I've been assuming there's no interest in Huff because he's still young enough that it would make him too expensive to sign. I wonder if the front office just isn't interested in what Huff would bring to the team.noidea
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Posted: 03/19/2013 12:23 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


There's a pretty simple explanation for why that happens. The depth of talent at the college (and the minor) levels is not nearly the same as at the pro level, where there are only 32 (or 30 for baseball) teams employing the best of the best. FS, like SS, is a more premium position defensively, so they will put their best players there, unless their skill set simply make that fit untenable.

Except for the elite of the elite schools in college, where they may have more of a luxury to match player skills to positional requirements and/or may have more complex schemes, I think it's just a matter of most NFL ready dback plays FS (and that's if they aren't good enough to play CB).

You'll see some of that at other positions, too, though. A primary edge corner may be scouted as primarily a nickel corner or even be moved to FS (if they played a scheme that had them reading zones). RB may be moved to FB or H-back. Primary receivers moved to the slot. Offensive tackles moved to guard.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 12:31 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 



pudding wrote: There's a pretty simple explanation for why that happens. The depth of talent at the college (and the minor) levels is not nearly the same as at the pro level, where there are only 32 (or 30 for baseball) teams employing the best of the best. FS, like SS, is a more premium position defensively, so they will put their best players there, unless their skill set simply make that fit untenable.

Yeah, I realize that that's the dynamic, it just seems more pronounced at safety, in my perception. Though tackle to guard might be just as, or more, common. It's probably also a question of specialized versus more generalized skillset. The safety positions have more in common, so players can move between them (generally down the defensive spectrum, though) more readily. Whereas a more specialized position like quarterback really has nowhere to go...if you don't project them at exactly their position, you probably don't see them as NFL players at all (the odd Tebow aside).

Offensive linemen probably fall more into that generalized category, whereas running backs and cornerbacks don't quite as much. Both can and sometimes are moved to another position, but it seems rarer. Cornerbacks seem more often talked about as candidates to be moved to safety than seems to actually happen in reality, to my perceptions anyway.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 1:01 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


My point was, though, that at lower levels, the 'specialization' is not as extreme or as important as at the pro level. That specialization happens more with each level you go up. QB is a totally different animal, but the running backfield, the WR (X.Y,Z spots), the CB (edge vs. slot vs. nickel), etc. have less variation and or less competition at lower levels. Anthony Dixon was a feature tailback in college, but it's been clear that, at the pro-level, he doesn't have that ability to be a three-down back. He's now more of a short-yardage specialist and FB.

You're right, it may seem more pronounced at safety, because there are two distinct 'safety' positions teams have on the field, so a position switch is much more visible, but I don't think the concept differs much. AJ Jenkins might have been a feature X receiver in college, but at the pro level, he might need to learn to run the Z routes (from the slot). Or be used as the Z deep threat.

As for the CB to Safety move, the reason it happens less often than it's discussed is because it's often brought up by fans and media, who don't understand that coverage at CB can be entirely different from coverage at S. Press-man corners are typically left on an island, and they're sole responsibility is to shadow and shut-down their WR (well that and then run support, once the play call has been determined). They aren't covering a zone and needing to read the keys to know when to release a WR to safety help, etc.  So, to the lay person, a move from CB to FS when the legs get old sounds easy-peasey. It's not, though, as a CB with no experience reading keys and directing the backfield can get lost quickly. The coverage is entirely different. Instead of trying to jam a receiver at the line of scrimmage and then flip their hips to run with them, they are scanning laterally and then angling downhill or over the top. 

Teams scouting prospects to convert are, of course, looking at two different things. One, they are looking at the scheme and the skill-set of a player. Two, they are looking at the ability for the player to grasp schemes, etc. When they are younger, they can develop them to make that switch. That's very different from taking a 8-9 year NFL veteran who has been a man-corner all his career to switch to FS.
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Posted: 03/19/2013 4:01 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


You nailed the Dawson signing...tongue
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Posted: 03/19/2013 6:40 PM

Re: Last 49ers mock 


All 4 secondary positions with new starters.  Revis & Asomugha, I think Aldon Smith & Ahmad Brooks will be the recipients of such a CB combo.  

I know Craig Dahl doesn't have the track record of Woodson, Revis & NA, but I feel his experience and knowledge could be enough to start over Eric Reid, just my 2 cents!
No play is too big for Colin Kaepernick!!!
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Posted: 03/19/2013 7:26 PM

RE: Last 49ers mock 


Thanks for the input everyone.

Pudding---you got it, Woodson will be at FS.

I realize that the secondary makeover is un-realistic but you never know with this front office. Financially, I cant see it happening. I do think a draft like that is realistic though.

I think we will have 43 of 53 positions filled already with a vet OT/OG signed and a vet DB signed. A QB will probably be brought in to compete with Tolzien and a rookie as well. I made a pre-draft roster post on the main forum. 

That will leave us with 7 open roster spots to compete with the bubble guys on our team. I expect there to be alot of moving up and down to get our guys as well as a few trades to stop up for next year as well in a draft that will see us loaded with comp. picks and traded picks as well.

Last edited 03/19/2013 7:26 PM by Kaepernick7

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