Lets say we solve one of our two glaring needs in FA.  When sign either Elvis Dumervil or McNeil, the OT from San Diego.  Now before we start an argument about Dumervil being more of an end the OLB.  Okay, make it an edge rusher and an OT

Then what if at #12 Sam Bradford is there.  DO WE TAKE HIM?

I know there are a lot of variables.  A lot may depend how Alex plays the rest of the year and the reason why Bradfor might fall that far is because his shoulder might not be ready before the draft.

Feedback?

If we are playing the WHAT IF game, then I think the following would have to happen for us to draft a QB in the 1st round in next year's draft:

1. Alex would have to get another injury or just tank. And I mean REALLY tank. If he plays marginally well throughout the rest of the season, we will most likely steer clear of a QB in the 1st round because we should give him another year to start. Revamp the o-line and let him know that this is his team (no QB competitions).

2. We would have to lose at least 10 games. If we go 8-8 or 9-7 or so, the consensus will be that we are just a few pieces away from being a great team. Drafting a first round QB, IMO, means that you are most likely rebuilding, or that you are in dire need of a QB (and with Alex and Nate Davis, I dont think we need 3 QBs with potential right now).

First of all, drafting Bradford at #12 would be way too high. He's going to be a pretty big risk to draft, and the contract that would go along with the 12th overall pick would be WAY too much money to justify that risk. I think if we traded back into the high teens or low 20s and grabbed him, I wouldn't hate the idea. When healthy, the kid is a really good quarterback, and he could do great things with the weapons we have right now.

But like you said, that all depends on how he looks coming back from this second injury, and how Alex plays from here on out. In all honesty, from what I have seen from Smith, I think we will let him have another go at starting next year, and if he does well, we will extend him ... and if not, we let him play out his contract, then see if Nate Davis can be a starter or draft a QB the year in 2011.

Hmmm, interesting!  McNeil solves a lot of problems if healthy.  I need to add heathly.  Health has really been a nightmare at RT, or just tackle in general.  Problems = blocking(both run & pass), 1st downs, field position & time of possesion.  Okay, not all OL problems but will definitely help tremendously!

Dumervil, hmmm, I know we need a pass rush but McNeil is a very good pick up, imo.  Could be a franchise guy.

I go with McNeill out of the 2.

Bradford at #12, reminds me of Dallas once again, having Troy Aikman & Steve Walsh.  Walsh went on to play some good games and Dallas got a great trade out of it.  I believe some team gave Dallas a 1st & 3rd for Walsh.

For myself, I wouldn't rule it out but also I would feel I am missing out on all the other position and go with another position.  This would mean I have pinned my hopes on Alex Smith, Shaun Hill & Nate Davis.  2011 is shaping up to be a good crop of QBs as well.

Bradford could be a great insurance policy and could have a bigger return.  A bit torn actually!    But, I do like my defensive players as well!  Flip a coin!  Just be glad I am not the GM and using a coin to make corporate decisions!

Now, if Bradford falls to the 2nd, I would have to give it a really strong consideration, in fact i would take him in the 2nd.   It's not like Jim Druckenmiller falling to the 2nd!  Move Nate Davis to the PS.  Trading a QB would fall in after the 2010 season or the Niners may break ties with Alex Smith by not resigning him.  Bradford would have one year under his belt at that time.  Shaun Hill has proven to be a great back up and friend/mentor.  How can you ask for more from Shaun Hill?  Nate Davis will get lost in the mix.  I think Bradford will supercede Nate Davis.

I go with McNeill and hope Bradford falls to the 2nd.  I go with another position with both 1st round picks.

Jmo!!!

rogerforthehall wrote:

Lets say we solve one of our two glaring needs in FA.  When sign either Elvis Dumervil or McNeil, the OT from San Diego.  Now before we start an argument about Dumervil being more of an end the OLB.  Okay, make it an edge rusher and an OT

 

Then what if at #12 Sam Bradford is there.  DO WE TAKE HIM?

 

I know there are a lot of variables.  A lot may depend how Alex plays the rest of the year and the reason why Bradfor might fall that far is because his shoulder might not be ready before the draft.

 

Feedback?

I realize the injury to Bradford and would wait for the combines.  I am going off the scenario of OT being solved in free agency with Marcus McNeil.  Would give some flexibility in the draft to allow this scenario to happen.

I would wait for combines to assess the injury.  Alex Smith has recoverd well.  Also, having the injury would force Bradford to sit a year or so.

About the $$$, I justify like this, Crabtree being a gift at 16 million gauranteee should have been a 38-40 million guarantee pick.  Obtaining one of the QBs at #12-15, I think the guarantee is about the same, 16-25 million.

Now, am I saying I would do this, perhaps if things should fall this way or Bradford falls to the 2nd.  If Locker should fall, that is another story and thread!  Would be like Crabtree falling to us, another gift!

Hypchucky9 wrote: Would I take him: No

Do I think the team would take him with any first round pick: Only if Locker, Clausen, Pike, McCoy, and Keenum are gone.

Do we realize that Bradford has a grade 3 shoulder separation? The exact same injury that has plagued Alex for 2 years. And to think we would draft Bradford who is just starting recovery? Not to mention the contract he will warrant even if he is hurt. Anyways I expect Washington to take him and so does Adam Schefter from ESPN.

Not thrilled with the current play of our qbs, l would be in a rush to pick QB Sam Bradford if he is available with our first pick. Some fans believe our O-line is a mess and given enough protection, Alex or Shaun will deliver. Others believe a good qb will mask some of our deficiencies on the line. The truth is somewhere in between. A good qb with an improved O-line would work wonders. Those who think QB Sam B would be available in the second round are either on some powerful stimulants or do watch horse racing more than any other sport. Last l checked, did this team not pick a WR  in the first round who did not perform at the combine because of a foot injury? Did the Miami Dolphins not whiff on the highest rated qb currently because of a similar injury? Sam was asked by the NFL evaluation committee to shut it down and have surgery quickly and start preparing for the NFL draft if he wants to play professional football. This is in sharp constrast to what some of the ESPN analysts were saying earlier on. Some analysts had suggested he should have surgery and then return to school to prove that he can play. Players should be evaluated on their body of work in college NOT on combine performances or bowl games.This is a good opportunity to draft a better signal caller and move this franchise in the right direction. Risks are part of life and refusal to take risks and continuing to  extend the contracts of average players will get you to the same old same old mantra-next year will be our year. If one removes himself emotionally from this team for a moment and evaluates this team, it is so clear this is a team devoid of talent. There is nothing special about our team. l predicted a 7-9 season before the season started and l can not see this team any better than that. Some fans think Singletary will work wonders with this team but we are now seeing the reality of the situation. He is NOT a miracle worker! We are what we are and we are average. Get a good LT and move Staley back to RT. Go find a more competent OC, I do not care if he is the 40th OC in 1 year. What we have is hopeless and a poor feflection of those who hired him. Extend NT Aubrayo now, get Brandon Jones more involved in the offense, get somebody else to return punts(not a starter) and this team would show better results.

Nope. We have such  shortage of talent along the offensive line and nobody is a "pure pass rusher" that we should focus on those areas in the draft if possible.  We can win with Smith at QB but cannot win without adding pieces along the lines to protect ours and pressure theirs!

rogerforthehall wrote:

Lets say we solve one of our two glaring needs in FA.  When sign either Elvis Dumervil or McNeil, the OT from San Diego.  Now before we start an argument about Dumervil being more of an end the OLB.  Okay, make it an edge rusher and an OT

 

Then what if at #12 Sam Bradford is there.  DO WE TAKE HIM?

 

I know there are a lot of variables.  A lot may depend how Alex plays the rest of the year and the reason why Bradfor might fall that far is because his shoulder might not be ready before the draft.

 

Feedback?

Would I take Sam Bradford at #12 overall?

Yep.  Easy decision, and easy money.

The list of QBs coming out next year misses one thing, its really, really tough to find a guy who can be a true Franchise QB.  Those guys come out few and far in between.  Right now, the only other guy who has franchise QB potential in this next draft, is Locker (IMHO)  To me, Bradford is the #1 overall pick, if he was healthy.  His injury is the ONLY reason he'd be available at #12.  If it takes a full year for him to recover from that injury, well, the niners could develop him for a year while they wait for him to be ready, and then play him when the time comes.  Bradford at #12 would be as big a shock, to me, as Crabtree at #10.  At some point, needs must be subject to the fact that you're getting a true difference maker.

Again, I'm not downplaying the injury, the shoulder injury he sustained is worrisome, and also worrisome is that Bradford does not have the build of a Locker or a Tebow.  Unless he can show, at the combine, that he's 100% healthy, he won't be the #1 overall pick anymore.  There's just too much talent at the top of this draft, and no team that's bad enough to have that pick can afford to throw that kind of money at someone to wait and see.

No! I like Nate Davis. Build the the OL through FA and the draft. We need a guard and OT.

rogerforthehall wrote:

Lets say we solve one of our two glaring needs in FA.  When sign either Elvis Dumervil or McNeil, the OT from San Diego.  Now before we start an argument about Dumervil being more of an end the OLB.  Okay, make it an edge rusher and an OT

 

Then what if at #12 Sam Bradford is there.  DO WE TAKE HIM?

 

I know there are a lot of variables.  A lot may depend how Alex plays the rest of the year and the reason why Bradfor might fall that far is because his shoulder might not be ready before the draft.

 

Feedback?

how about this what if. What if we would have drafted Desean Jackson instead of Kentwan Balmer and Chilo Rachal. Now thats a what if for you.

OK…Lets play WHAT IF.

What if we had addressed our desperate need on the O-Line in the draft and had taken Michael Oher instead of Michael Crabtree.

1.      We have a player in camp on time and in synch with the team when the season starts.

2.      In the Vikings game went 0-11 for 3^rd down conversions and I believe if Oher had been on the line we would have converted at least one if not two of them.  That means no time for last minute magic for Farve and we win.

3.     Again what if we had selected Michael Ohere instead of Michael Crabtree. In the Colts game it would have meant no turn overs and again we were 2-10 on third down conversions.  I believe if we had Ohere in at RT we pick up at least two of those 10.  With no turn overs and at least two more sets to move the ball down field we win.

That would make us 5-2 going into the softer part of our schedule.  Yeah, What If.

I don't think that Bradford has super-elite arm strength.  He's no Jamarcus Russel, or Mike Vick, in terms of being able to throw the ball, however, from what I've seen, he has a dart gun for an arm, rather than a cannon.  I think his arm strength compares favorably, and is probably a bit better, than Aaron Rodgers was when he came out of Cal.  In any case, the NFL is not a league about having a cannon arm, the NFL is a league about having the accuracy on your throws to zip the ball into a very tight spot.  That's why so many cannon armed QBs from college flop in the pros, there are no WRs wide open fifty yards down the field in the NFL.  The ability to throw the ball 75 yards down the field is insignificant next to the capacity to put the ball in a small window, that's probably only a foot wide, 25 yards down the field.  That's why Drew Brees is one of the best in the game.

When I'm watching a college QB, what I want to know is, as Ron Jawarski would say at this moment, how he makes NFL throws.  I've watched guys like Colt McCoy, Snead, and Clausen, and, for my money, those guys don't make NFL throws.  An NFL throw is how you produce when you have pressure in your face.  I'm less interested in how many fifty yard throws you've made, and I'm more interested in how many throws you've completed into tight coverage with a small window, and how many times you've hit your receivers in the numbers with a throw.  Locker has a lot of those throws on his resume (probably because his team sucks, so he's had to face tight coverage, because the DBs were better than his recievers, in the NFL, that's going to be a fact of life).

What else am I interested in when I evaluate a college QB?  I want to know how fast he makes decisions.  The line between star QB and unemployed is very thin in the NFL.  A QB who holds the ball for 3.5 seconds is sacked, but a QB who gets rid of it in 2.5 won't be.  That's only a second of time that separates a good play from a bad one, and Bradford is one of the best I've ever seen at the college level at making up his mind and getting rid of the ball quick (ironic that his stock has slipped due to a sack).  When I watch college QBs, I have that mental clock in my head that says that completion in college is a sack in the pros.  Bradford has fewer of those than any other QB.

Finally, I'm looking for pocket pressence.  WIth the prevelance of the spread offense in college football, its getting harder to evaluate pocket presense, but I want a guy who can feel the rush, and then extend the play and get rid of it or run for a first down.  Bradford is deceptively athletic.  He isn't Jacory Harris, or Jake Locker, or Tim Tebow, but I think his feel for the game of football is outstanding.

Bottom line, I understand how frightening the shoulder injury is, and I think a team's medical staff has to do its due diligence in spades on this one, but if he's there at say #12 or so, and the team needs a QB (caveat: if Smith picks it up, and plays well, the team might not need a QB) I think the talent might be too much to pass up.  Injuries are a part of the game, and this one is certainly one to keep an eye on, but there's no reason why he can't make a full recovery.  I'll say it again: a healthy Sam Bradford is my #1 overall pick, and the only way he could possibly be available at #12 is if the medical situation scares people off.  The phrase no guts, no glory applies here, sometimes, you have to take a risk and try to make it big, I'm as against dumb risks as anyone, but smart, calculated risks (like drafting Crabtree at #10, etc.)?  That's how you build great teams.

What if we drafted 7 O-Linemen in the draft?  At least a couple of them would work out, right?  LOL

J/K  I think we need to address O-Line, outside passrusher and safety in FA and the draft before we go looking for another QB. 

Wow, that is some serious Crabtree hating there. I agree that we MIGHT have won that game against Minn if we had Michael Oher, but are you really blaming Michael Crabtree for the loss against the Colts? First of all, the INT of his hands wasn't his fault, because it was overthrown and was trying to make a play for the ball. Would you have rather him just kept his hands down and not done anything? The ball probably would have been intercepted anyways, and then people would be saying he's lazy. Secondly, even with those two turnovers, the Colts only got 3 points out of them, so we still wouldve lost that game. And thirdly, if he's not in that game, we wouldnt have executed that late second quarter touchdown drive because he made a great first down to start it off.

We would have a great OT if we drafted Oher, but we would not have our best offensive playmaker either, IMO. I'll take Crabtree because he is only going to get better and better from here on out, and RTs are a lot easier to obtain than #1 wide receivers.

gldnwht wrote:

OK…Lets play WHAT IF.

What if we had addressed our desperate need on the O-Line in the draft and had taken Michael Oher instead of Michael Crabtree.

1.      We have a player in camp on time and in synch with the team when the season starts.

2.      In the Vikings game went 0-11 for 3^rd down conversions and I believe if Oher had been on the line we would have converted at least one if not two of them.  That means no time for last minute magic for Farve and we win.

3.     Again what if we had selected Michael Ohere instead of Michael Crabtree. In the Colts game it would have meant no turn overs and again we were 2-10 on third down conversions.  I believe if we had Ohere in at RT we pick up at least two of those 10.  With no turn overs and at least two more sets to move the ball down field we win.

That would make us 5-2 going into the softer part of our schedule.  Yeah, What If.

Bradford is a good looking QB whose greatest strength (accuracy) is something that is essential to good QBing in the league these days, The shoulder injury may mean that he's not going to be able to contribute for another year or so, but that's robably not a bad thing, since he'd be best off watching his first year or so before he takes regular snaps. I'd be comfortable with having Smith continue as the starter until Bradford is ready, and then deal with the decision of who is the future down the line or when Bradford forces the issue. If Smith really emerges as a solid QB, himself, that's a good problem to have.

The flipside of the argument, however, is whether or not the 49ers have the luxury of taking a QB to stash away when they have a lot of other clear needs on the team. If I'm playing "what if," I think the key question really is what other players are avaialable and do they fit an equally pressing need on the team? It also depends on how Alex Smith develops through the end of this season. If Smith looks like he's truly turning the corner and becoming a viable long-term solution, and there is an equally impressive talent at another position on the board, I'm not so sure I just go with Bradford.

BTW - I'm not very high on Jake Locker. Even this year, under a new system, he still only completes 56% of his passes (and that's at the collegiate level). I don't think he has nearly the accuracy to be really effective at the pro level. I could be wrong, but I think Locker is more of a tweener QB. Physically impressive with a lot of versatility, but if he can't make the easy throws with consistency, his value is greatly diminished.

soda wrote:

I don't think that Bradford has super-elite arm strength.  He's no Jamarcus Russel, or Mike Vick, in terms of being able to throw the ball, however, from what I've seen, he has a dart gun for an arm, rather than a cannon.  I think his arm strength compares favorably, and is probably a bit better, than Aaron Rodgers was when he came out of Cal.  In any case, the NFL is not a league about having a cannon arm, the NFL is a league about having the accuracy on your throws to zip the ball into a very tight spot.  That's why so many cannon armed QBs from college flop in the pros, there are no WRs wide open fifty yards down the field in the NFL.  The ability to throw the ball 75 yards down the field is insignificant next to the capacity to put the ball in a small window, that's probably only a foot wide, 25 yards down the field.  That's why Drew Brees is one of the best in the game.

 

When I'm watching a college QB, what I want to know is, as Ron Jawarski would say at this moment, how he makes NFL throws.  I've watched guys like Colt McCoy, Snead, and Clausen, and, for my money, those guys don't make NFL throws.  An NFL throw is how you produce when you have pressure in your face.  I'm less interested in how many fifty yard throws you've made, and I'm more interested in how many throws you've completed into tight coverage with a small window, and how many times you've hit your receivers in the numbers with a throw.  Locker has a lot of those throws on his resume (probably because his team sucks, so he's had to face tight coverage, because the DBs were better than his recievers, in the NFL, that's going to be a fact of life).

 

What else am I interested in when I evaluate a college QB?  I want to know how fast he makes decisions.  The line between star QB and unemployed is very thin in the NFL.  A QB who holds the ball for 3.5 seconds is sacked, but a QB who gets rid of it in 2.5 won't be.  That's only a second of time that separates a good play from a bad one, and Bradford is one of the best I've ever seen at the college level at making up his mind and getting rid of the ball quick (ironic that his stock has slipped due to a sack).  When I watch college QBs, I have that mental clock in my head that says that completion in college is a sack in the pros.  Bradford has fewer of those than any other QB.

 

Finally, I'm looking for pocket pressence.  WIth the prevelance of the spread offense in college football, its getting harder to evaluate pocket presense, but I want a guy who can feel the rush, and then extend the play and get rid of it or run for a first down.  Bradford is deceptively athletic.  He isn't Jacory Harris, or Jake Locker, or Tim Tebow, but I think his feel for the game of football is outstanding.

 

Bottom line, I understand how frightening the shoulder injury is, and I think a team's medical staff has to do its due diligence in spades on this one, but if he's there at say #12 or so, and the team needs a QB (caveat: if Smith picks it up, and plays well, the team might not need a QB) I think the talent might be too much to pass up.  Injuries are a part of the game, and this one is certainly one to keep an eye on, but there's no reason why he can't make a full recovery.  I'll say it again: a healthy Sam Bradford is my #1 overall pick, and the only way he could possibly be available at #12 is if the medical situation scares people off.  The phrase no guts, no glory applies here, sometimes, you have to take a risk and try to make it big, I'm as against dumb risks as anyone, but smart, calculated risks (like drafting Crabtree at #10, etc.)?  That's how you build great teams.

Well said soda! Magnificent article. The only point l would agree to disagree with you is if he is available whether Alex has proved anything or not, which l do not believe or see it happening is l would go ahead and pick him because talents like these do not roll around very often and his contract at that spot can not be earth shattering. Football teams are built in the trenches they say but most good offensive lines are rarely built by first round talents whilst  the opposite is true for good qbs. As the Titans roll into town this weekend, we will see a very good disciplined offensive line. Let's do our due diligence and find out how many are first round picks. Apart from good old Tom Brady, l do not know  of many qbs who were picked in the late rounds and are pro bowl material. Regarding your point that those qbs do not make those NFL throws, l have felt the same way for years. McCoy is a gutsy college QB but though he has beaten OU three out of the last four years, l still do not regard him as NFL material.