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NFL Halfway Mark

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Posted: 10/28/2013 4:45 PM

NFL Halfway Mark 


I think 6-2 or 5-3 is probably where most people saw the 49ers with the tough early schedule and the Crabtree/Manningham injuries.  So the 6-2 start is no surprise.

NFC - I think the Saints are the upside surprise. I thought Bounty-gate would kill the team but they are back and looking strong.  My other upside surprise is Arizona. I thought they would be 2-6 at best. Falcons and Giants are the downside surprises.

AFC - 8-0 Chiefs takes the upside prize of course.  The Texans collapse is the big downside surprise.

My preseason SB pick is looking good so far:  49ers vs. Bengals III.  Of course we won't see the Icky Shuffle, or John Candy in the stands...
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Posted: 10/28/2013 5:08 PM

RE: NFL Halfway Mark 


although they got blown out yesterday, I might still put the jets in the surprise category. they looked like a team that might be lucky to win 2 or 3 games all year. and they also looked like they were on the verge of imploding.

they still have a lot of holes and might struggle to get to 7 or 8 wins. but even where they are now has been a success story IMO. they have played really good football, overall, in the first half of the season.

"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 10/28/2013 5:23 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 



hummbabybear wrote: I think 6-2 or 5-3 is probably where most people saw the 49ers with the tough early schedule and the Crabtree/Manningham injuries.  So the 6-2 start is no surprise.
I'm not surprised being 6-2, I was just kinda shocked at how it unfolded. Never did I think we would get clobbered two weeks in a row. Feels good riding a 5 game win streak, we haven't beat a contender though. I will feel great about this team if we can beat the Saints on the road. I don't want to overlook Cam and the Panthers but we should handle them at home with two weeks to prepare.

My two favorite teams are the 49ers and whoever is playing Seattle.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 5:31 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


I think the Colts deserve a nod in the upside surprise category.  Most people felt they'd be good, but I don't know how many people had them beating the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos.  Those three wins, to me, establish them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  I didn't view them as one preseason and I don't think too many other people did either.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 6:09 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


The surprise team has to be the Chiefs. The Colts were a playoff team last season, those 3 wins are impressive and I could see why they would be 2nd. We will see how they deal with the huge blow of losing Wayne. The Jets are not playing at a .500 level. They are in the WC mix but they have a net points of -68. They were fortunate with the way the game against the Pats ended. 

The Chiefs are for real, as in contenders. They are the 2011 49ers. Alex Smith leading the offense with low turnovers, a strong run game, a great defense, solid special teams and coaching. A problem with our offense in 2011 was 3rd down conversions, we were 2nd to last at 29.4%, the Chiefs are at 37.4% The points are about even though, Chiefs are averaging 24 points a game, we averaged 23.8 in 11. They are hands down the biggest first half surprise imo. Our 2nd round pick is already secured from KC.eek

My two favorite teams are the 49ers and whoever is playing Seattle.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 7:24 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


The Colts, while they were a playoff team, seemed very primed for regression. Their point differential was very mediocre, closer to a 8-8 or 9-7 team than an 11-5 team. Their defense was poor last year and didn't look much improved. The way their defense has played this year has been very surprising to me.

I guess I'd say that the Chiefs are the upside surprise team in the AFC and the Colts' defense is the upside surprise unit in the AFC. tongue

As for Atlanta, I wonder what's going through Tony Gonzalez's head: He invoked the 5% uncertainty in his retirement promise in order to take one more shot at the Super Bowl and his team collapses completely.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 11:55 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 




---------------------------------------------
--- questfor6 wrote:

The surprise team has to be the Chiefs. The Colts were a playoff team last season, those 3 wins are impressive and I could see why they would be 2nd. We will see how they deal with the huge blow of losing Wayne. The Jets are not playing at a .500 level. They are in the WC mix but they have a net points of -68. They were fortunate with the way the game against the Pats ended. 

The Chiefs are for real, as in contenders. They are the 2011 49ers. Alex Smith leading the offense with low turnovers, a strong run game, a great defense, solid special teams and coaching. A problem with our offense in 2011 was 3rd down conversions, we were 2nd to last at 29.4%, the Chiefs are at 37.4% The points are about even though, Chiefs are averaging 24 points a game, we averaged 23.8 in 11. They are hands down the biggest first half surprise imo. Our 2nd round pick is already secured from KC.eek

---------------------------------------------

May want to temper those Chief accolades. They have yet to beat, or even play a team with winning record. Nonetheless, I think they finish around 12-4. Pretty nice turnaround to say the least.
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Posted: 10/29/2013 1:30 AM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


NYG, Tampa Bay & Minnesota all being last place in their respective division.  Dashon Goldson went from Superbowl to last place but enjoying the $$$.

Robert Mathis still going strong without Dwight Freeney on the other end.  

In a roundabout way, the Colts 2012 draft looks like this: Luck, Trent Richardson, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen & TY Hilton.  Pretty offensive!  Hopefully for the Colts, Richardson plays like the #3 overall pick.  Not sure who got the better of the deal, Colts or Browns?

Robert Quinn making sure his 2011 defensive classmates don't forget about him.

Yes, the KC Chiefs, 8-0.  Gotta feel good for Alex Smith!  I like draft picks but I really hope Alex Smith can lead the Chiefs far into the postseason and beat the Broncos 2Xs and perhaps a 3rd in the playoffs.
No play is to big for Colin Kaepernick!!!
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Posted: 10/29/2013 6:46 AM

RE: NFL Halfway Mark 


the nfc east being top to bottom bad.
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Posted: 10/29/2013 6:37 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 



uncleloggins wrote:
May want to temper those Chief accolades. They have yet to beat, or even play a team with winning record. Nonetheless, I think they finish around 12-4. Pretty nice turnaround to say the least.
I don't care who they played so far, their formula (our 2011 formula) works and it will take a complete effort to beat them. After half a season they are allowing a league low 12.3 points per game. Charles is on pace for 1,270 rushing yards with 12 TD's and 766 receiving yards with 4 TD's. Smith is on pace for 3,590 yards, 18 TD's, and 8 interceptions, not flashy but effective. Succop is hitting 83.3% of his FG's with the only misses coming from 50+ Demps is averaging 31.9 yards per kickoff return and McCluster is averaging 10.8 per punt return. They are getting a complete team effort.

I am looking forward to see how they match up against Denver in the 2nd half as well as the Colts and Chargers. Alex and Reid do have to find a way to get Bowe going. 302 yards and 2 TD's is not enough production for a player of his caliber. His 37.8 yards a game is easily a career low.

My two favorite teams are the 49ers and whoever is playing Seattle.
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Posted: 10/29/2013 7:05 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


The Chiefs have 5 road game and play Broncos and Colts at home...I see 10-6 as a likely possibility.
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Posted: 10/29/2013 7:17 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 



hummbabybear wrote: The Chiefs have 5 road game and play Broncos and Colts at home...I see 10-6 as a likely possibility.
Without any major injuries I find it highly unlikely they go 2-6 after starting 8-0. Even if they lose both games to the Broncos, split with the Chargers and lose to the Colts, you expect them to lose 2 more games on top of that? The other 3 are @Buffalo, @Washington and @Oakland, not exactly powerhouse teams. What part of the Chiefs are you expecting to fall apart in the 2nd half?  That is what would have to happen for them to only notch 2 more wins.

My two favorite teams are the 49ers and whoever is playing Seattle.
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Posted: 10/29/2013 8:02 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


Why do I like the Chiefs?  (Way more than I like the Broncos, actually)

Two reasons:

Reason 1: I've said, over and over again, both on this forum and in real life, that if you can play defense, run the ball (and play good ST) and you have a QB who doesn't make mistakes, you can not only get to the postseason, you can advance, and you're a title contender.  The 2011 49ers, the Trent Dilfer Baltimore Ravens, Tom Brady's first Superbowl team with the patriots, the Seattle Seahawks of today.  The formula works.  

Reason 2: because of the way the Chiefs (and the Seahawks too) are built, they are not overly dependent on any one player.  If anything happens to Peyton Manning, the Broncos are finished.  If anything happens to Drew Brees, the Saints are finished.  In the run to the postseason, and the quest to advance, injuries can and do happen, by putting your eggs in a small basket, you take that risk.  The Chiefs do not have that problem.  Losing Smith would be huge, but they still do so many other things well.  If Manning misses a few weeks in the regular season, the Broncos will fall out of the division race, the Chiefs could weather losing Smith for a bit a lot easier.  


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Posted: 10/29/2013 8:31 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


FYI soda- this forum does exist in real life.tongue
soda wrote:

Why do I like the Chiefs?  (Way more than I like the Broncos, actually)

Two reasons:

Reason 1: I've said, over and over again, both on this forum and in real life, that if you can play defense, run the ball (and play good ST) and you have a QB who doesn't make mistakes, you can not only get to the postseason, you can advance, and you're a title contender.  The 2011 49ers, the Trent Dilfer Baltimore Ravens, Tom Brady's first Superbowl team with the patriots, the Seattle Seahawks of today.  The formula works.  

Reason 2: because of the way the Chiefs (and the Seahawks too) are built, they are not overly dependent on any one player.  If anything happens to Peyton Manning, the Broncos are finished.  If anything happens to Drew Brees, the Saints are finished.  In the run to the postseason, and the quest to advance, injuries can and do happen, by putting your eggs in a small basket, you take that risk.  The Chiefs do not have that problem.  Losing Smith would be huge, but they still do so many other things well.  If Manning misses a few weeks in the regular season, the Broncos will fall out of the division race, the Chiefs could weather losing Smith for a bit a lot easier.  


"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 10/29/2013 8:58 PM

RE: NFL Halfway Mark 


Niners are 6-2

How much better can we be with Crabtree, Manningham, Aldon, Tank, Wright and Moody?

That is some serious talent to an already stacked team who is paying better and better every week. It's scary to think how good this team will be in the 2nd half.

Last edited 10/29/2013 8:59 PM by Kaepernick7

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Posted: 10/29/2013 10:47 PM

RE: NFL Halfway Mark 



Kaepernick7 wrote: Niners are 6-2

How much better can we be with Crabtree, Manningham, Aldon, Tank, Wright and Moody?
Good enough to return to the Super Bowl. I think its us, Seattle or the Saints, possibly whoever ends up with the #1 seed. Nobody wants to travel to Seattle or New Orleans in the playoffs unless its where the Super Bowl is held. For the 49ers and the fans, I can't think of a more perfect last game at The Stick, hosting the NFC Championship game that sends us back to the Super Bowlbiggrin

My two favorite teams are the 49ers and whoever is playing Seattle.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 7:46 AM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


The Seahawks are getting some pretty important pieces back themselves: their starting tackles Breno Giacomini and Russell Okung, plus Percy Harvin. They won't be quite as helpless to a strong pass-rush once those two tackles return and Harvin will add some dynamism to their offense.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 8:06 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 



questfor6 wrote:
uncleloggins wrote:
May want to temper those Chief accolades. They have yet to beat, or even play a team with winning record. Nonetheless, I think they finish around 12-4. Pretty nice turnaround to say the least.
I don't care who they played so far, their formula (our 2011 formula) works and it will take a complete effort to beat them. After half a season they are allowing a league low 12.3 points per game. Charles is on pace for 1,270 rushing yards with 12 TD's and 766 receiving yards with 4 TD's. Smith is on pace for 3,590 yards, 18 TD's, and 8 interceptions, not flashy but effective. Succop is hitting 83.3% of his FG's with the only misses coming from 50+ Demps is averaging 31.9 yards per kickoff return and McCluster is averaging 10.8 per punt return. They are getting a complete team effort.

I am looking forward to see how they match up against Denver in the 2nd half as well as the Colts and Chargers. Alex and Reid do have to find a way to get Bowe going. 302 yards and 2 TD's is not enough production for a player of his caliber. His 37.8 yards a game is easily a career low.
Smith just doesn't throw the ball down field, between Charles and McCluster there are not many long throws (they haven't really needed those throws as they control the clock and haven't been behind big yet.).  Bowe's 37 yds/game are not only a career low but about half his career average.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 9:41 PM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


Alex Smith is in a line of solid quarterbacks who don't make mistakes, are accurate with throws short and intermediate and keep drives alive enough that several of them are likely to break through for points.

I've said before that he reminds me a lot of Phil Simms in that way. Simms wasn't good enough to build a team around, but he was good enough to keep the offense productive enough to support an excellent defense. You can win a championship with Alex Smith if you're excellent in all other phases. They're great defensively, seem great on special teams and have a strong running game. They aren't built to survive breaks going against them, but if they can get that charmed playoff run where they get no major bad breaks, it isn't at all impossible for them to win the title, just as the 49ers might have in 2011 if things had gone just right.
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Posted: 10/31/2013 6:53 AM

Re: NFL Halfway Mark 


Usually first round QBs who looks like busts in the first few years never turn it around.  The only two I remember who did were Jim Plunkett and Doug Williams.  Both players started out with bad teams but won with good teams later in their careers.
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