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Expected Roster Transition

Posted: 09/04/2013 3:02 PM

Expected Roster Transition 


The recent release of Brian Jennings is only a flavor of what's expected to transpire over the next 8-12 months.

Jennings's release was purely moving to a younger and cheaper player, allowing for the 49ers to roll over unused salary cap space to next season. This will allow for the 49ers to aggressively resign Kaepernick, Iupati, Crabtree, A. Smith, and other core players on the roster.

That being said, there's still cap work that needs to be completed to resign these players, obtain key bargain free agents, and sign an expected large draft class in 2014. I bet were are going to see a youth and cost effective transition regardless of the outcome of the 2013 season.

Key positions and players to watch:

CB - Objective: Shed older talent and their salaries. Get younger, faster, and physical.

Potential Losses: Carlos Rogers ($8M in savings if cut), Tarell Brown (FA), Nnamdi Asomugha (FA)

Potential Replacements: Cox, Brock, Cooper, along with a high draft pick, would not even add up to Rogers's 2014 salary. Younger and cheaper, and you have Culliver and potentially Wright (FA) in the mix as well.

WR - Objective: Get healthy, and find more playmakers. May need to let older vets go to develop new generation of WRs. 

Potential Losses: Anquan Boldin (FA), Kyle Williams (FA), Mario Manningham (FA)

Potential Replacements: Baldwin, Patton, and Moore. Baldwin wll be Boldin's understudy this season. Patton has flashed playmaking ability, and will be under contract for a few more years. Moore will have 1 year left.

S - Objective: Improve pass defense at SS, and identify a capable #3 safety that can play both positions.

Potential Losses: Donte Whitner (FA), C.J. Spillman (FA), and Craig Dahl ($1.5M in savings if cut)

Potential Replacements: Michael Thomas, Free Agent, Draft Pick. If Ventrone can play strong special teams, Dahl is a goner. Whitner and Spillman leave for more money. Thomas takes over one of the vacant roles, and we draft Dahl's replacement to save money.

DL - Objective: Improve depth at defensive line while reducing cost.

Potential Losses: Glenn Dorsey ($2.7M in savings if cut)

Potential Replacements: Tank Carradine, Quinton Dial, draft pick. If the 49ers are confident in Ian Williams's ability at the NT position, there's no reason to have such an expensive backup. Dial can flex to NT if needed, but I think the 49ers look to their PS or draft to replace Dorsey and save salary cap dollars. 

Summary:

We currently project to have about $7 million in salary cap space in 2014.

By cutting Rogers, Dahl and Dorsey after the 2013 season, you'll save almost $13 million in salary cap room for 2014.

We will also roll over approximately $4.5 million in current cap room to 2014.

In addition, I think Frank Gore will restructure and sign a 1 year extension, reducing his salary to $3 million, and saving the team the same amount.

Add all that together, and you get $27.5 million in salary cap room. I am very optimistic we can keep our core group of players together.
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Posted: 09/04/2013 4:43 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


Rogers is definitely gone after this season, but I dont see the team cutting ties with Dorsey and Dahl so soon.  While niether guy is on a rookie or vet min deal, their salaries are not huge in respect to their veteran contribution.  They are value players who the team signed because the league had them undervalued.  

Jennings was a bit of a surprise to me, but at 37 years old, the move was more than just to increase cap room.  Mcderrmot was a younger player that the team did not want to risk losing for a couple more good years of Jennings.  In the end the move saved the team 500K.

Ahmad Brooks salaray will be 7.5Million.  I wonder if his contract will be reviewed as the team starts making moved to keep Kaep, Iupati and Aldon.  Still not sure if Crabtree will be kept.  The niners will definitely try to retain him, but will their value for him be the same as his value for himself?
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Posted: 09/04/2013 4:54 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


If Lemonier breaks out, cutting Brooks becomes a possibility.  I was uncomfortable with the signing when it happened last offseason, because I felt that was a ton of money doled out to a non-elite player.  Remember, Brooks' contract is really a three year deal, (ie, cap-wise, cutting ties before the end of year three doesn't make a whole lot of sense) with some cap ramifications for the final three years.  He's the second best OLB on the team, no doubt there, and a beyond solid player.  I wouldn't count my chickens on ~27 million in cap space, because I think it is just as likely that Gore plays out the final year on his deal and leaves.  I also think Rogers is the only "no-brainer" cut next year; other guys, the niners may do what they did this year, leverage a pay cut out of the guy rather than a straight cut.  When you get a guy to take a pay cut, their trade value increases, and you can get compensation for losing them, either when you trade them, or when you let them walk away in FA.  Cutting guys who are on the last year of their deal makes no sense, don't it unless you have to, putting pressure on the guy to take a pay cut is better.  When you cut someone, you lose them, you have to pay to replace them, and you lose their contribution to the compensatory pick formula when they leave in FA.
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Posted: 09/04/2013 4:54 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


Good analysis, although Cooper is gone (he signed with KC). Maybe you meant Morris?
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Posted: 09/05/2013 3:49 AM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


I completely understand your point, and definitely agree about pressuring players into a pay cut - we did it with Manningham and Haralson this past off-season.

That being said, outside of Rogers, the rest of the cut list in my post are multi-million dollar salaried backups - specifically Dorsey and Dahl. For the players, cutting their salaries is only advantage if they still believe it'll be higher than what they'll make on the open market.

That's one reason why Manningham and Haralson accepted those pay cuts - both coming off injuries and wouldn't really make much more than the vet minimum on the open market.

I don't think cutting Brooks is a possibility even if Lemonier breaks out. Being 3 deep at OLB is a huge tactical advantage in today's football. If anything, Lemonier would become a natural successor to Brooks after his contract expires. Otherwise, he'd be a replacement for Aldon Smith if we are unable to resign him.

soda wrote: If Lemonier breaks out, cutting Brooks becomes a possibility.  I was uncomfortable with the signing when it happened last offseason, because I felt that was a ton of money doled out to a non-elite player.  Remember, Brooks' contract is really a three year deal, (ie, cap-wise, cutting ties before the end of year three doesn't make a whole lot of sense) with some cap ramifications for the final three years.  He's the second best OLB on the team, no doubt there, and a beyond solid player.  I wouldn't count my chickens on ~27 million in cap space, because I think it is just as likely that Gore plays out the final year on his deal and leaves.  I also think Rogers is the only "no-brainer" cut next year; other guys, the niners may do what they did this year, leverage a pay cut out of the guy rather than a straight cut.  When you get a guy to take a pay cut, their trade value increases, and you can get compensation for losing them, either when you trade them, or when you let them walk away in FA.  Cutting guys who are on the last year of their deal makes no sense, don't it unless you have to, putting pressure on the guy to take a pay cut is better.  When you cut someone, you lose them, you have to pay to replace them, and you lose their contribution to the compensatory pick formula when they leave in FA.
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Posted: 09/05/2013 3:54 AM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


Yep. I meant Morris.
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Posted: 09/05/2013 7:51 AM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 



dmbfan04 wrote: We will also roll over approximately $4.5 million in current cap room to 2014.


We have 7.5 Mil in cap space currently.. wouldn't we be rollin that over?  I think the 4.5 mil number is low unless I'm missing something...
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Posted: 09/05/2013 12:16 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 


nevermind.. I read where it says the 9ers available cap space is actually 2.5 MIL now after taking into account practice squad players & injured players...
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Posted: 09/05/2013 1:25 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 



metfansrule wrote: nevermind.. I read where it says the 9ers available cap space is actually 2.5 MIL now after taking into account practice squad players & injured players...

Though I believe the 49ers will recoup some cap space when those injured players (who already count against the cap) replace guys on the roster. At least, that's what I read somewhere.
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Posted: 09/05/2013 1:55 PM

Re: Expected Roster Transition 



Minstrel wrote:
metfansrule wrote: nevermind.. I read where it says the 9ers available cap space is actually 2.5 MIL now after taking into account practice squad players & injured players...

Though I believe the 49ers will recoup some cap space when those injured players (who already count against the cap) replace guys on the roster. At least, that's what I read somewhere.

Yeah, I read that too...

ninersnation.com has a pretty good breakdown of our salary cap situation...
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