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Playoff scenarios

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Posted: 12/24/2012 1:31 AM

Playoff scenarios Post Rating (1 vote)


Here are the various playoff scenarios.  While a lot can happen and we can still end up playing almost every likely playoff team, I think the most likely scenario is that we end up with the 3 seed playing the Bears again.

Assuming we beat the Cards:

1) If the Vikings beat the Packers, we're the 2 seed;
2) If the Packers beat the Vikings, we're the 3 seed and play:

a) the Bears if they beat the Lions;
b) the Redskins if the Bears lose to the Lions and the Redskins lose to the Cowboys;
c) the Giants if the the Bears lose to the Lions, the Redskins beat the Cowboys, and the Giants beat the Eagles;
d) the Vikings if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Redskins beat the Cowboys, and the Giants lose to the Ealges

Now, if we lose to the Cards:

1) If the Seahawks lose to the Rams, we're the 3 seed and the above scenarios apply;
2) If the Seahawks beat the Rams, we're the 5 seed and play:

a) the Redskins if they beat the Cowboys;
b) the Cowboys if they beat the Redskins 

Ties could alter some of these scenarios, but those are unlikely (Rams game aside) and would just complicate things too much.

Last edited 12/24/2012 1:32 AM by ljlawdog

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Posted: 12/24/2012 6:58 AM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


Thanks for the breakdown,  I'm still upset because we had our destiny in our control before losing to the Hawks.  ohlord

LoneStar Niner
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Posted: 12/24/2012 7:49 AM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


#2 seed isn't gone. The Packers losing to Minnesota in Minnesota isn't far-fetched. The game between these two teams a couple weeks ago was competitive and that was in Green Bay. If Minnesota's defense plays well and Adrian Peterson has a great game, it's not unreasonable.

That said, of course, the #3 seed is the most likely scenario, I agree. Missing out on the bye weekend hurts, if that comes to pass, as does having to travel to Lambeau if the 49ers face the Packers in the playoffs.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 9:35 AM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


Agree, the Vikings can absolutely win that game. They are playing for their season and Peterson has been extraordinary lately. i expect that to be a close game either way. A Vikings win is possible.

That's obviously best case scenario as it would mean resting everybody for an extra week (particularly given Harbaugh's recent comments about being unsure if Justin Smith will be available in the playoffs), and would mean playing the Packers, most likely, in San Francisco. Under this scenario, I'd go so far as to say that if the Vikings beat the Packers, the 49ers are still the favorites to win the whole thing. I'm a huge Vikings fan this week.

If I had to place a wager, though, I think the Packers win that game and the Bears beat the Lions to set up a 49ers-Bears 3 vs. 6 game. This seems most likely to happen.

Next most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that we end up with the Giants in the 3-6 game. For this to happen, we need to win (likely to happen), the Packers need to win (likely to happen), the Redskins need to win (more likely than not, in my opinion), and the Bears need to lose (unlikely). The only real upset that needs to happen is the Lions beating the Bears. Granted, that would be a big upset. To me, this is the worst of all scenarios. As pedestrian as the Giants have looked lately, we already know they're capable of winning in SF. Particularly if Justin is unable to go, a first-round loss under this scenario is not unthinkable.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 11:20 AM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


Yeah, I'd much rather face the Bears than the Giants. The Giants are perhaps the highest-volatility team in the NFL...they can be great or they can be horrible. The Bears meanwhile are consistently uninspiring but not bad, now that their crazy turnovers-forced rate has regressed to the team. So I think the 49ers are less likely to be surprised by the Bears.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 12:10 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios 



ljlawdog wrote:
Assuming we beat the Cards:

1) If the Vikings beat the Packers, we're the 2 seed;
2) If the Packers beat the Vikings, we're the 3 seed and play:

a) the Bears if they beat the Lions;
b) the Redskins if the Bears lose to the Lions and the Redskins lose to the Cowboys;
c) the Giants if the the Bears lose to the Lions, the Redskins beat the Cowboys, and the Giants beat the Eagles;
d) the Vikings if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Redskins beat the Cowboys, and the Giants lose to the Ealges

Nice break down. My new favorite team is the Vikingstongue They are capable of winning if Ponder, AP, and the defense play well, but with the #2 seed on the line, the smart bet is on Rodgers and the Packers.

I also think there is no way we don't bounce back and beat the Cards. Looking at the scenarios I think the most likely is a, the Bears beat the Lions in Detroit, where the Lions are 2-5.

That would set up an interesting rematch that I think would be a lot closer than CK's first start. IMO the Bears would have the bigger advantage having seen CK and would be able to better prepare for him. The 49ers didn't play against Cutler this year so its not known how he would do against our defense. Its to our advantage that he isn't the most mobile QB.

What I'm hoping for is option c. We have unfinished business with the Giants. Beating them in the playoffs after we came so close to the SB would give me the most satisfaction. I should add that what I really want is a bye week, but if that can't happen I want a rematch from last years NFC championship game.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 1:21 PM

RE: Playoff scenarios 


As disappointing as last night's loss was, before the season started, I wasn't expecting the Niners to go 2-0 on the New England/Seattle road trip. 1-1 seemed right. What I did expect was two victories vs. the St. Louis Rams.I think those 2 stinker performances against the Rams have proven to be very costly. You have to beat the teams you should beat because it allows you the freedom to lose a game at Seattle that would be extremely hard for any NFL team to win.

I think there is a very good chance that Minnesota beats Green Bay. The Vikings are playing for their playoff lives, and they only lost to GB 23-14 at Lambeau on December 2. The Metrodome is a very hard place to play. That place will be rocking for that game. The fans and Viking players know what is at stake. GB has already won the division.

Last edited 12/24/2012 1:27 PM by CDC84

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Posted: 12/24/2012 1:33 PM

RE: Playoff scenarios 



CDC84 wrote: As disappointing as last night's loss was, before the season started, I wasn't expecting the Niners to go 2-0 on the New England/Seattle road trip. 1-1 seemed right. What I did expect was two victories vs. the St. Louis Rams.I think those 2 stinker performances against the Rams have proven to be very costly. You have to beat the teams you should beat because it allows you the freedom to lose a game at Seattle that would be extremely hard for any NFL team to win.

I think there is a very good chance that Minnesota beats Green Bay. The Vikings are playing for their playoff lives, and they only lost to GB 23-14 at Lambeau on December 2. The Metrodome is a very hard place to play. That place will be rocking for that game. The fans and Viking players know what is at stake. GB has already won the division.
agree with you the two games with rams are the games that stand out. had we taken care of business we would be well positioned for the bye which we need.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 1:47 PM

RE: Playoff scenarios 


I agree as well but apparently the other team doesn't always get the memo. I've heard it said that every NFL game is hard to win. For example nobody told the Vikings that the texans should win. I just think the NFL is such a grind there is no way to get up for every week. Period. The Seahawks lost to the lions. The giants spanked the Niners and then lost to the bengals, ravens, skins, and falcons. I just think any given Sunday is more true now than ever. And you need the breaks to roll your way...if we have the Akers from last year, the Niners win both ram games. Yes, the Niners should have beat the rams, but every NFL team has games the should win but for whatever reason don't. Just need to beat Az now and forget last week.
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Posted: 12/24/2012 2:01 PM

RE: Playoff scenarios 


I really believe that Vikings can beat the packers. AP will be too much for the and that dome will be loud as ever.



adad.jpg picture by dafolks23

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Posted: 12/24/2012 2:04 PM

RE: Playoff scenarios 


if this also happens last nights loss didnt mean a damn thing but getting Kaepernick ready for a playoff ready type environment



adad.jpg picture by dafolks23

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Posted: 12/24/2012 2:14 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


I thought the 49ers would most likely go 1-1 in this pair of games (@New England and @Seattle) with a greater chance that they'd go 0-2 than 2-0. After winning the game in New England (the game I gave them the lower chance to win), I did hope for winning both very tough games, but ultimately, they're about where I thought they'd be. Counting on beating two tough teams on the road to preserve playoff seeding is asking a lot. If the 49ers lose the #2 seed, they lost it in their two games against the Rams.

Hopefully, though, the 49ers beat the Cardinals and the Vikings beat the Packers.

Last edited 12/24/2012 2:14 PM by Minstrel

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Posted: 12/24/2012 6:01 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios Post Rating (1 vote)


IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF ....I'm so tired of hearing all of the if's and but's...Bottom line is this, it's been proven for the last 4 out of 5 SB games lower seeded teams can win it all.  WIth that being said we don't necessarily need to worry about who and where we're playing.  The formula is simple........just win one game at a time. If it's meant to be then it's meant to be for us to win it all plain and simple.

L E T S GO N I N E R S !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LoneStar Niner
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Posted: 12/26/2012 10:37 AM

RE: Playoff scenarios 



CDC84 wrote: As disappointing as last night's loss was, before the season started, I wasn't expecting the Niners to go 2-0 on the New England/Seattle road trip. 1-1 seemed right. What I did expect was two victories vs. the St. Louis Rams.I think those 2 stinker performances against the Rams have proven to be very costly. You have to beat the teams you should beat because it allows you the freedom to lose a game at Seattle that would be extremely hard for any NFL team to win.

I think there is a very good chance that Minnesota beats Green Bay. The Vikings are playing for their playoff lives, and they only lost to GB 23-14 at Lambeau on December 2. The Metrodome is a very hard place to play. That place will be rocking for that game. The fans and Viking players know what is at stake. GB has already won the division.

And that IMHO pretty much sums it up.  Sweet and simple but the absolute truth.

 Click to show "Ronnie Lott" result 11

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Posted: 12/30/2012 1:15 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios (update) 


With the early games done, these are the possibilities:

1) 49ers win, Packers lose = 2 seed and a bye
2) 49ers win, Packers win = 3 seed versus the Bears
3) 49ers lose, Seahawks lose = 3 seed versus the Bears
4) 49ers lose, Seahawks win = 5 seed versus winner of Redskins/Cowboys
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:56 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios Post Rating (1 vote)


49ers wrap up the #2 seed with a wild win for Minnesota against Green Bay. Wow, what a finish. I thought Minnesota was in trouble when the Packers caught them, but they just managed to eke it out at home. This erases the damage of the Seattle loss, thankfully. There were three huge benefits of being #2 vs. #3:

1. More time off for Justin Smith. He didn't play against Seattle or Arizona, so now he gets three weeks off to get closer to 100%

2. One less elimination game. Any one-and-done tournament, it's a massive advantage to avoid a round, since any game could be a loss and thus the end of the season.

3. If the 49ers face the Packers in the playoffs, it'll be in San Francisco. The 49ers did beat Green Bay in Green Bay, but I definitely like their chances better in San Francisco.

I don't think the 49ers are the team to beat in the playoffs, but I think they have as good a chance as any. No team has looked dominant (except maybe the Broncos, against a rather weak schedule) and the only team the 49ers would have to play on the road would be Atlanta, a team that is quite good but doesn't scare me like, say, last year's Packers did or even last year's late-season Giants.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:16 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios 


yup, a likely date with the packers on saturday night the 12th. you never know, minny could beat them but i don't see it. hard to beat rodgers and company 2 weeks in a row, the 2nd of which would have to be at lambeau. i don't see AP paying as well there as he does at the metrodome and i don't see ponder carving them up like he did today. or i at least see him making an error or 2 that will make it a more favorable outcome for GB.

"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:28 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios Post Rating (1 vote)


So the playoff field is set.

If the Packers win their game against the Vikings, we will play them

If the Packers lose and Seattle wins, we will play Seattle

If the Packers and Seattle both lose, we will play Washington
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:41 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios 



questfor6 wrote: So the playoff field is set.

If the Packers win their game against the Vikings, we will play them

If the Packers lose and Seattle wins, we will play Seattle

If the Packers and Seattle both lose, we will play Washington
Bring it
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:49 PM

Re: Playoff scenarios 



ComicBookGeek wrote:
questfor6 wrote: So the playoff field is set.

If the Packers win their game against the Vikings, we will play them

If the Packers lose and Seattle wins, we will play Seattle

If the Packers and Seattle both lose, we will play Washington
Bring it
That's what I'm hoping for as well. I would love to take this rivalry to the next level with a meeting in the playoffs.
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