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Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts

  • Smith2Davis
  • 4th Round Draft Pick
  • Rating: 3.2/5 this site
  • 515 posts this site
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Posted: 12/16/2012 9:44 AM

Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 


                         Kaepernick          Brady
CMP %                   68.9                 61.1
Pass Yds/GM         216                  205
Pass TD/GM           .75                  1.25
INT                         1                      0
Rush Att/Yds       25/173              6/9
Rush TD                  2                     0
Record                  3-1                  3-1
QB Rate               100.3                95.1
Sacked                   8                      8
25+ YD Passes       9                      4

How relevant are stats?  I guess we can expect many superbowls and a future HOF since everyone is hung up on stats anymore.  I think the kid will be fine.  Yes it was a risk but it was for the better of the franchise in the long term.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 10:46 AM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 


I don't think comparing Kaepernick's starting numbers to a specific player (like Brady or Montana, etc) tells us much, because Brady himself wasn't "likely" to become what he did. Players as great as Brady are outliers, especially given the way his career started (non-blue chip prospect, unheralded, etc) and for a young player to actually seem likely to become an elite quarterback, he'd need numbers that blow away Brady's starting numbers.

I think that judging a likely, or possible, future trajectory involves both looking at the numbers and watching him play, seeing how he's producing those numbers.

The numbers are impressive...by QBR (ESPN's metric of quarterback play, which also takes into account sacks, rushing stats and leverage of each play based on game situation), Kaepernick is off to the best four game start ever.

In addition, what's been encouraging to me is how he already seems (mostly--he has had some issues with getting the play off in time) ready to run the 49ers' usual, highly diverse offense, even making line calls based on reading the defense. He seems poised and able to make good decisions after the snap of the ball, he has a nice arm but also nice accuracy and of course his athleticism is off the charts. But in addition to athleticism, he has a lot of pocket awareness...he has that Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers awareness of where defenders are and how to elude them. That's very crucial in taking advantage of his athleticism.

So when I take into account the numbers and my own (inexpert) evaluation of how he looks playing the position, I think it isn't a stretch to say he has the ceiling to be an Aaron Rodgers type of player. Now, ceilings aren't always reached and I think it's not necessarily highly probable that he reaches that ceiling (because few players do), but I think high expectations for his future are warranted.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 11:44 AM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 



Minstrel wrote:
by QBR (ESPN's metric of quarterback play, which also takes into account sacks, rushing stats and leverage of each play based on game situation), Kaepernick is off to the best four game start ever.
Just to be clear, he's off to the best start since 2008, which is as far back as ESPN has calculated QBR. Dan Marino's first four starts could have been greater, but until QBR is assessed, we won't know. (His numbers: 72-115, 62.6%, 983 yds, 8.54 YPA, 13 TD, 3 INT, 116.7 rtg, 14 rush, 0 yds, 1 TD, 6 sacks - 45 yds; 3-1 record en route to a 7-2 record as a starter). QBR is also just another stat, albeit one that is seen as being more insightful due to the situational aspect it captures in its analytics.

I think the question that this topic does not address is how 'fine' he will be the rest of this year. Will his 'fineness' be good enough to win the Super Bowl? Fairly or unfairly, that's the expectation that sits on his shoulders now because of how/when he was put into the starting spot. This wasn't a replacement of an injured QB at the start of the year. This was taking over for a QB that was playing at a higher level than a year ago, when he led the team to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship game.

Most people in here, from what I've seen, all agree that Kaepernick's future is bright. Hall of Fame bright? Way too early to assess that, although Minstrel has given a good breakdown of why, at the very least, the early returns are promising enough to consider that as a potential upside trajectory. The main concern raised has been, was that future now?

To me, I think he has, thus far, performed well enough to have earned the right to play. If this wasn't a Super Bowl hopeful team at the time he took over, I don't think there would be any argument over letting him continue to start and earn his stripes. It's the situation that he was brought into the spotlight that raised eyebrows.

I'll add that I don't think it'll be fair to say that, if he fails to make it to the Super Bowl or even the NFC Championship, that it was the wrong move to make. The gamble wouldn't have quite paid off in the short term, but I don't think this was a move made thinking only of the short term. This was made with next year and the many years following in mind. If it doesn't result in a Super Bowl this year, but it has provided him with great experience going into next year and leads to a Championship (or many) down the line, then it still could have been a good move.

Bottom line.. anybody in here who is not a fan of Kaepernick's potential as the future QB of the franchise is probably not being very honest about his abilities. I haven't really seen anyone who appears to be standing behind that position, however.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 12:06 PM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 



pudding wrote:
Just to be clear, he's off to the best start since 2008, which is as far back as ESPN has calculated QBR. Dan Marino's first four starts could have been greater, but until QBR is assessed, we won't know. (His numbers: 72-115, 62.6%, 983 yds, 8.54 YPA, 13 TD, 3 INT, 116.7 rtg, 14 rush, 0 yds, 1 TD, 6 sacks - 45 yds; 3-1 record en route to a 7-2 record as a starter).

Ah, thanks for that clarification. I thought I had read that it went back at least far enough to include Peyton Manning but, going back to Sando's chart, it doesn't. It's 2008-2012, as you said. He mentions Manning (and Brady) but only as a reference to their play, and Russell Wilson's, during a period of this season. Manning's name incorrectly stuck in my memory.

Here's the chart Sando published, for anyone interested.

Last edited 12/16/2012 12:09 PM by Minstrel

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Posted: 12/16/2012 1:06 PM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 


I'm reading between the lines and thinking upset tonight and a lot of Championships!!!biggrinbiggrinbiggrin

Realistically...I am going to wait and enjoy this ride until it stops.  Hopefully after CK's great 15-17 year career as a Niner.  I don't think even Steve Young had a cannon arm and running ability like CK.  Just gotta get some experience and hopefully develop where it counts, between the ears.
No play is too big for Colin Kaepernick!!!
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  • Smith2Davis
  • 4th Round Draft Pick
  • Rating: 3.2/5 this site
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Posted: 12/16/2012 9:16 PM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 


David beats Goliath....  The guy makes plays period.  The defense was laboring but Kap hangs in there and hits Crabtree for the game winner.  Good game, now lets go get this division.
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Posted: 12/17/2012 7:10 AM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 


If CK some how wins a Super Bowl this year, then I'll believe we have a possible future HoFer.
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Posted: 12/17/2012 8:22 AM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 



eastside49er wrote: If CK some how wins a Super Bowl this year, then I'll believe we have a possible future HoFer.
He has all the talent, drive and humility to do it.


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Posted: 12/17/2012 12:56 PM

Re: Kaepernick vs. Brady Through First 4 Career Starts 



dea49 wrote:
eastside49er wrote: If CK some how wins a Super Bowl this year, then I'll believe we have a possible future HoFer.
He has all the talent, drive and humility to do it.

Exactly. Whenever I read that a guy with all-world talent also lives on the practice field and in the film room, I become very bullish on his future. To me, the biggest reason that talented guys fail is that they lose, or never had, the drive to be the very best. Pro sports is so competitive that you have to be absolutely working as hard as you can every day to make it.
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