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How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade?

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Posted: 12/07/2012 4:56 PM

How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Barring an incredible collapse, or injury, Alex Smith will not be our starting QB for the remainder of this year. I can't see how the 49ers would keep paying him 7 million a year to be the backup, so assuming we can find a trading partner(Miami barely sniffed him last year), how much is he worth?

I think it was Matt Maiocco that made the point that the 49ers might seek draft compensation in 2014 for him. You could get a higher pick, it would help set you up for the future(Bill Belichick rule), and we already have 13(I think) picks in the upcoming draft.

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Posted: 12/07/2012 6:01 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


It's all about supply and demand.  There are no RGIII's or Andrew Luck's in the 2013 draft and here are your best free agents.  Alex matches up really well.  Maiocco ignores that fact that the 49ers will probably trade many of their 2013 picks to either move up or stock up in 2014, so I see the 49ers getting a 2013 2nd round pick as the best case, maybe throwing in a later round pick to seal the deal. A team like Philly needs a good veteran QB to keep them relevant while they prepare Foles for the future. He is nowhere near ready yet.

Best 2013 QB Free Agents:
Joe Flacco (BAL) - Into the final year of his rookie contract, the Ravens still don't know what type of quarterback they have under center....
Jason Campbell (CHI) - In Chicago, he's as strong a back-up as the league has to offer and at his age, it's unlikely that many teams will offer him more than that....
Tarvaris Jackson (BUF) - After having been beat out by a 10 million dollar man (Matt Flynn) and a 3rd round pick (Russell Wilson), Jackson was traded to the Bills...
Matt Moore (MIA) - It didn't take long for Ryan Tannehill to beat out Moore as the Dolphins' starter....
Drew Stanton (IND) - In limited playing time, Stanton displayed leadership and enough playmaking skills to warrant serious looks as a back-up...

p.s. I guess you can add Michael Vick as available too since Philly would be shopping or cutting him.

Last edited 12/07/2012 10:33 PM by hummbabybear

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Posted: 12/08/2012 4:37 AM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


I have a funny feeling Alex may end up starter with the ravens next year for a 2nd rounder and they will let joe flacco walk
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Posted: 12/08/2012 1:04 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Now matter what happens, Smith is an experienced, veteran type functional QB. If your team is a power built team, that relies on the run, with timely passing, then Smith has some value.

He is worth mid round draft picks, maybe multi-late round picks, but I don't think so until then end of a camp. The Hawks were able to get something for TJack at that time and they were going to let him go and everyone knew it.

Of course, there is absolutely NOTHING wrong with that middle grade, average QB contract and having Smith be a guaranteed backup is a good idea these days. It is why I do not see the Hawks getting rid of Matt Flynn, these days, if you lose your #1, you are throwing in the towel unless you have a quality 2. Every team is one play away from losing a starter. I wouldn't trade Smith, his value as a 2 is extremely high in comparison to any return on trade, especially to a team like the Niners who have a strong structure.
"Ladies and gentlemen, I'll be brief. The issue here is
 not whether we broke a few rules or took a few
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Posted: 12/08/2012 4:10 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Perhaps Alex smith could be part of a draft package to move up in the 1st round, that is if the Niners have a prospect targeted.

Personally, I think the Niners could get a 2014 2nd round pick for Alex Smith.
No play is too big for Colin Kaepernick!!!
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  • Stokes83
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Posted: 12/09/2012 10:19 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


nobody is going to give up a 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounder for Alex.

try 4th or 5th at best.

teams that SHOULD make a mover after Alex to me at least include: Oakland, Minnestoa because Ponder sucks, and maybe even Jacksonville or Arizona.

Arizona I don't think will because they'll draft Barkley from USC.

---------------------
With pick No. 36 in the 2011 NFL, the San Francisco 49ers select...Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada 

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Posted: 12/09/2012 11:24 PM

RE: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


I'd put the Jets on that list as well.

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Posted: 12/10/2012 5:53 AM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Kansas City could also be a team that would consider Smith.
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Posted: 12/10/2012 6:58 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 



Stokes83 wrote: nobody is going to give up a 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounder for Alex.
try 4th or 5th at best.
Oh, I beg to differ. He may not be flashy but he IS GOOD and considering how flashy CK is, his stats don't show it, as yet.


Suffering and rejoicing 49er fan since '69!

Last edited 12/10/2012 6:59 PM by dea49

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Posted: 12/10/2012 7:18 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Although recent history might suggest Smith's value could be of a 1st round level, I don't know that Smith will garner a first round pick, especially given how younger QBs have done a much better job of acclimating to the NFL in recent years. Smith doesn't have the cachet of someone like Jay Cutler, who garnered Kyle Orton and two first round picks a few years ago. He's got a little more cachet than Kevin Kolb, however, who garnered a 2nd round pick and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Kolb's addition didn't exactly work out so well, however, and that may be fresh on team's minds as they consider Smith's potential as a starter.

Matt Cassel, who was traded to the KC Chiefs along with Mike Vrabel for a high 2nd round pick (#34) seems more about what I think Alex Smith could return if they find a team that has the opening. It also depends on how the draft plays out. Given the dearth of impact QB in this year's draft (both Barkley and Geno Smith fell off as the year wore on, and are expected to be the only two 1st round QB grade options), it's quite possible a team at the top of the 2nd might feel Smith would be a better option for the short term while they groom a younger QB. At his salary, he would not be terribly expensive as a starter, either, and he's still relatively young (28 years old).

Ultimately, it all depends on needs and fits. The QB market this summer may not be all that great overall, so Smith could become a valuable commodity. Given Kaepernick's relatively low salary at this point, I think the 49ers could choose to keep Smith on the roster for the time being, with the goal of trading him for assets before the upcoming season. Or they could keep him around as a backup, although I think Smith might request a trade and, given the other salary considerations the team has to account for, they may choose to oblige anyway.
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Posted: 12/10/2012 8:59 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


I got Larry Fitzgerald for him in fantasy. Yeah, that didn't work out too well for either of us
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Posted: 12/10/2012 10:23 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 



ComicBookGeek wrote: I got Larry Fitzgerald for him in fantasy. Yeah, that didn't work out too well for either of us
If it were only that easy!!!

Personally, I still feel the Niners can get a 2nd round pick in 2014 for Alex Smith.

Crazy thought: I am thinking Andy Reid isn't retained, Eagles hire Greg Roman and Alex Smith would be a nice piece to have in a hostile (Fans) environment.  Alex is mentally tough and feel he is exactly what Philadelphia needs!  DeSean Jackson does catch a lot of short passes and take it for big gains.
No play is too big for Colin Kaepernick!!!
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Posted: 12/11/2012 10:19 AM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


I think the Eagles might like what they have in Foles. He's played pretty well in the limited time he's had thus far. Of course, they might consider bringing in Smith to give him competition and, perhaps, let him sit for another year and learn the nuances behind a veteran QB. But, right now, Foles is auditioning for that job.
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Posted: 12/11/2012 4:46 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


could be heading to the vikings?
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Posted: 12/11/2012 5:19 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


When I first read this thread, my initial thought was perhaps a 4th, but then reading what Culter and Kolb fetched, I have changed my mind.

In fact, I'd rather wait for a pick in '14 or '15 if it was a 1st or multiple 2nd rounders.  Fairly friendly contract...this is when the rookie salary cap hurts us.  If first round QB's were getting $50+ million contracts, then Alex's value would be higher.

But this is a great chip to have.  We are not only stacked, but have depth.  We have what, 10 picks next year, so doing what NE has done so well in the last several years is to seemingly always have multiple 1's stowed away, has helped fueled a long run, of course having #12 helps too.

I'd like to take a flyer on Zac Dysert from Miami OH a 6'4', 228 lb, who runs a 4.85 40 y.d.  He would probably cost us Carolina #3 this year.  Or I like Matt Scott from Arizona, probably get him in the 5th.

Last edited 12/11/2012 5:20 PM by rogerforthehall

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Posted: 12/11/2012 7:35 PM

RE: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


i don't think we'd get that much for him. not a knock on alex, but merely a reflection that his value is probably greater for us than to other teams. i think he could fetch a 3rd day pick or a couple of them if we decide to move him.

no doubt, his stock has risen and he's respected around the league. but i'm not sure any team is going to send high draft pick/s for him, not to mention he only has a short term (albeit friendly) contract.

"You are either getting better or you are getting worse; you never stay the same."

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Posted: 12/11/2012 8:26 PM

RE: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


while it seems he will be moving on keeping him is a good option since his and ck's cost isn't high for the quarterback position. imo once you position yourself as a contending franchise(i feel we have)the most important position on the team is the backup qb.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 7:57 AM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


Neither Schaub nor Kolb had long-term deals when they were traded (they were franchise tagged, but had to be given sizable contracts once dealt), and neither had performed at Alex' level for the extended period he had. Matt Cassell had only one year of solid numbers, but, like Alex, there was some concern that he could have been product of a system more than a real star QB.

I think the big issues is the 'perception' of Alex, because he's not an unknown quantity. He had 5 unspectacular years before breaking out under Harbaugh, and his breakout was still muted by his lack of big numbers (efficient numbers, but only a couple really big games). But, as I said, the pick he garners is going to be based on the market.

I'm not expecting a 2nd round pick for Alex, but I think that it's possible he returns that for a couple reasons. First, the QB market this upcoming off-season is not great in either FA nor the draft (in terms of currently projected 'immediate impact' QBs). Second, given his relatively low salary and two years of control (remember, he has a 3 year deal), I think that's more than enough time, if the team feels he's a good fit, to get value out of him, while also not extending themselves too much if he, for whatever reason, fails.

Smith's main potential competitors on the open market will be Joe Flacco, who I would imagine Baltimore wanting to re-sign unless he gets too expensive, at which point they become another destination for a QB, and Michael Vick, whose recent slide back into the injury prone TO machine of his past has likely limited his market value. The other guys on the market are guys like Tavaris Jackson and Jason Campbell.

It's really hard to predict how things will shape up this soon before the end of the year and the draft workouts, but.. again.. history says a 2nd round pick would be well within reason. If you want to put a range on it, I think 2nd to early 4th rounder is around what he could fetch. He could also simply be released outright or (far more unlikely) brought back to be the backup for one year.

One note is that Smith has a roster bonus due on March 13th or so (a couple weeks before the end of the year), so the team will need to negotiate with him to push that bonus back to buy a little more time to negotiate with potential trade partners. If the 49ers end up paying that, then it's not money they get back. That's another $1 million in dead money against the cap. He already has $1 million from his original signing against the cap for next year, so that would be more money they couldn't spend on a roster spot.

Bottom line.. way too early to determine his actual value. But if the question is simply the rhetorical "how much can he return?" I think a 2nd rounder would be his ceiling.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 11:19 AM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


I hope we can find a way to fit his salary onto next years team. Starters get hurt all the time in this league and its nice knowing we have a proven vet as a backup. I hate to say it, but with the way CK scrambles, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him take a big hit at some point that may force him to miss time.

On the other hand, if Harbaugh feels Tolzien will be ready and we need the money owed to Smith to go elsewhere (Goldson?) I would understand him being moved.
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  • Stokes83
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Posted: 12/12/2012 10:34 PM

Re: How much is Alex Smith worth in a trade? 


being a 49er fan since 1991, if Alex is out of this team, i honestly would like to see him end up in KC.

Montana, Bono and Grbac did it. :)

so why not Alex? it makes sense.

---------------------
With pick No. 36 in the 2011 NFL, the San Francisco 49ers select...Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada 

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