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Points Per Game 2011 vs 12

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Posted: 11/12/2012 10:44 PM

Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


I was looking at some stats comparing the amount of points we scored last season vs this season. The season is far from over, but we can get a pretty good snap shot after 9 games. I was expecting an increase in points this year, for reasons that have already been discussed in other threads. To summarize, mainly its:

1. Year 2 in the same system
2. Improved play from current players
3. Signing Moss, Manningham and Jacobs
4. Using our first 2 draft picks on offense
5. Harbaugh is not a Rookie HC at the NFL level and he had a full camp

Certain things from my pre-season list have turned out to be a non factor. As of now, Jenkins, James and Jacobs. But everything else is still in our favor. I would think that would lead to a higher amount of points. We even have improved stats that should lead to more points.

2011 Yards per game- 310.9
2012 yards per game- 365.9 (+55 yards a game)

2011 1st downs per game- 17.6
2012 1st downs per game- 21.3 (3.7 more per game)

2011 3rd down % 29.4
2012 3rd down % 35.6 (6.2% better)

So that's  more yards per game, converting a higher % of 3rd downs to extend drives, our QB leads the NFL in completion percentage, yet our PPG has almost stayed the same.

2011 points per game- 23.8
2012 points per game- 23.7

My only explanation is the Davis Akers effect. Last season he nailed 44 field goals for 132 points. This season he is on pace to hit 27, for 81 points. That is a loss of 51 points, 3.19 a game. But even if he was kicking as many as last season, and we were scoring 3 more points a game, that's not exactly taking the offense to another level.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 11:11 PM

Re: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


It just occurred to me that I failed to factor in TD's scored on returns and defense. Those have nothing to do with our offense, unlike FG's.

2011 ST and Def TD's-3 (21 points, 1.3 per game)
2011 ST and Def TD's-1 (7 points, .77 per game)

This changes the points resulting from our offense a little bit, it shows a small improvement.

2011- 22.5 PPG
2012- 22.9 PPG

Last edited 11/12/2012 11:14 PM by questfor6

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Posted: 11/13/2012 1:48 AM

Re: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


2011 starting field position 33.38
2012 starting field position 28.49

Special teams play has been less effective a defensive takeaways have decreased dramatically since 2011.  

2011 turnovers per defensive drive .189
2012  turnovers per defensive drive .146

Shorter fields mean easier scoring.  While the yardage only averages to a 5 yard a drive, If you average 11 drives a game, and 9 of the 2011 drives start on your own 28.49 yard line, then 2 drives start on the other teams 33 
yard line

Last edited 11/13/2012 2:02 AM by jayob1

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Posted: 11/13/2012 6:51 AM

Re: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


But the overall philosophy hasn't changed.

He lets the scores come naturally via his normal gameplan and if the score runs up he allows it but doesn't force it.

Harbaugh isn't going to light it up or take chances to extend even a small lead.


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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:24 AM

Re: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


I think the Defensive philosophy had changed a bit.  The team is taking less risk now than last season.  The pass defense looks like they are playing safer in coverage and not giving up big plays.  The negative impact, to playing smarter coverage, results in players not jumping routes and going after as many INT's.  

The improved offense has played a large part in the change of defense philosophy.  The Niners do not need to risk defensive lapses to help the offense generate points.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:57 AM

Re: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


The number of plays per game, specifically running plays, has a huge influence on the scores the 49ers are putting up. This isn't a high-octance offense that goes 80 yards in 4-5 plays very often. They are in the top-3 for fewest plays per game this year, as they were last year, and in the top-3 for percentage of running plays on offense. That's a recipe for lower PPG.

They are more efficient on offense, overall, which has helped cover for the slips in overall defensive efficiency, +/- differential, and the field positions/ST.  There was criticism a year ago that they got 'lucky' a bit on their way to 13 wins, and that, given the 'evening out' of that luck, they would slip in the standings (as low as to 7-8 wins by some calculations, as many of you probably remember). The improved efficiency and evened out other stats, though, is far more sustainable, so.. yes, they have improved, even though the final record and some of the stats may not entirely reflect it.

I do think the defense needs to get more consistent pressure on the QBs if they want to have another deep run in the playoffs, but that's something they can worry about once they've made it to the playoffs.
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Posted: 11/15/2012 8:25 PM

RE: Points Per Game 2011 vs 12 


i believe we should be around 7 or 8 in top...the glaring lack of to's makes the defense look bad imo...i think this defense and the team might be better than last year
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