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5 games to go
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Posted: 2/21/2013 6:56 PM
5 games to go
Not counting the SEC tournament. How many do we need to win to ensure a berth in the NCAA tournament?
I think only Miss. State at home is a pretty sure bet at this point unless we suddenly start 'getting it'; we might win at Georgia. Right now I would be surprised if we win at Arkansas or beat either Florida or Missouri at home. If we finish out 2-3 we would have an 11-7 SEC record, possibly good enough to get a decent seed in the conference tournament and get another win or two there. I think the most likely scenario right now is that we go about 3-4 from here out and finish 21-12. What kind of seed does that get us in the big show? Better than an 11 or 12?
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/21/2013 7:53 PM
Re: 5 games to go
Honestly, I think we have to go 3 of 5, and win at least 1 game in the SEC Tourney...that would give us a finishing record of 22-10, and probably get us inside the top 40 RPI, and about a 10 or 11 seed.
I think what it is all going to boil down to is, how many teams win their Conference Tourney that wouldn't have got an at large bid, if there are a bunch of surprise team, it cuts the number of at large teams, and UK my not even make the tourney. If teams win their conference tourney that would have got at large bids anyway, UK will get in, and will likely be inside of a 10 seed.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 8:18 PM
Re: 5 games to go
^^^This...
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Posted: 2/21/2013 10:51 PM
Re: 5 games to go
I think the SEC will get a minimum of 4 teams in the NCAA tourney, with 5 more likely. Currently the conference has 7 of the top 64 teams in Sagarin's ratings (where UK is 26th) and 4 in Pomeroy's (36th). We're 46th in rpi; 41st in ESPN's bpi.
The selection committee usually has already pretty well decided what they're going to do before the conference tourneys are over. Of course upset winners in those tournaments can throw a monkey wrench into the works, but they rarely seem to involve teams from the conferences with multiple invitees that weren't already securely in the tournament. It usually just causes them to shuffle some seeding.
Looking at the remaining games for some of the other contenders in the league, I think we'll probably end up no worse than 5th. That should get us in even in the event of an unexpected conference tournament champion imo, but that's pretty unlikely. Since the SEC went to 12 teams in 1992, it's only been won 3 times by teams that weren't one of the top 4 seeds. That feat will get even more difficult with the change to the top two seeds getting "double byes" with the new 14 team format.
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/21/2013 11:48 PM
Re: 5 games to go
Not that this has anything to do with anything, but I'd like to see bubble teams from the traditional power conferences get at least one of the slots in the play-in games instead of Cheyney State vs. Slippery Rock every year. Those teams are always fodder for a No. 1 seed in the 1 vs. 16 game.
However, a middle of the pack team from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC or whoever would stand a puncher's chance of knocking off a No. 1 seed when advancing from the play-in to their 1 vs. 16 game. Not to mention games like Arkansas vs. Purdue or Ole Miss vs. Maryland are a lot more intriguing than Cal Poly San Luis Obispo vs. Morgan State.
Now, I don't know that I liked that idea a year ago ...
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Posted: 2/22/2013 4:23 AM
Re: 5 games to go
IMO it's gotta be 4-1 at least. And the loss can't be another butt spanking. Win one of the two VS Fla or Mizzou, and win the other 3. It's either that or win the SEC Tourney. With Cal beating Oregon tonight, that last 4 in, first 4 out line is gonna change nightly. We need a quality win like that, and UM or UF are all we have to hang our hats on.
"It's a mere moment in a man's life between an All-Star Game and an Old-Timers Game." - Vin Scully |
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Posted: 2/22/2013 8:25 AM
Re: 5 games to go
This is exactly right. If we don't beat missou or fla.....send us home because there is zero chance of us getting in.
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--- lfbj00 wrote:
IMO it's gotta be 4-1 at least. And the loss can't be another butt spanking. Win one of the two VS Fla or Mizzou, and win the other 3. It's either that or win the SEC Tourney. With Cal beating Oregon tonight, that last 4 in, first 4 out line is gonna change nightly. We need a quality win like that, and UM or UF are all we have to hang our hats on.
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"ALL IN"
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Posted: 2/22/2013 10:19 AM
Re: 5 games to go
The power conference bubble teams get a 12 seed and a play in game at that spot. Winner plays a 5 seed. The small conferences get the 16 seed play in game. floridacat wrote: Not that this has anything to do with anything, but I'd like to see bubble teams from the traditional power conferences get at least one of the slots in the play-in games instead of Cheyney State vs. Slippery Rock every year. Those teams are always fodder for a No. 1 seed in the 1 vs. 16 game.
However, a middle of the pack team from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC or whoever would stand a puncher's chance of knocking off a No. 1 seed when advancing from the play-in to their 1 vs. 16 game. Not to mention games like Arkansas vs. Purdue or Ole Miss vs. Maryland are a lot more intriguing than Cal Poly San Luis Obispo vs. Morgan State.
Now, I don't know that I liked that idea a year ago ... If history does actually repeat itself, I am sooo getting a pet dinosaur!
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Posted: 2/22/2013 2:50 PM
RE: 5 games to go
Lunardi having us in his 'First 4 Out' list is a ploy to gain hits. Come on guys, if Selection Sunday was this Sunday, we are in. see the numbers posted previously in this thread. We are easily in the tourney, the media just likes a story, and 'Kentucky is on the bubble! OMG!' is a story that gets clicks.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:37 PM
RE: 5 games to go
Bracketology, what a gimmick. Lunardi has no more of an idea of what will happen than anyone here would if they sat down with the stats and sites, possibly less. Wasn't there a study after last year's seedings came out where he was ranked somewhere down around 30th in terms of accuracy of his predictions among the "experts"? A quick glance at what he has today shows he only has 3 SEC teams even in the tournament--Florida, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Ridiculous.
The SEC now has 14 of the NCAA's 64 biggest money makers. It has the defending champions in both men's basketball and football. Last year 4 teams received bids, 50% of whom made it to the Elite 8, and the league has added two teams since then--one of which was also in the tournament last year.
You guys that think we have to finish 4-1 to get in, how many SEC teams do you see in the tournament?
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/22/2013 6:13 PM
RE: 5 games to go
He may not get the seeds right...but it's in the upper 90's in terms of % when predicting which teams get in. Right now we are an average team that outside of Ole Miss has shown no ability to beat any tourney teams. Since we lost Noel, the Ole Miss win really doesn't count in the eyes of the committee...they need to see us beat somebody without him. So why would they put us in over a team like Cal who has shown that on any given night they can knock off a few teams? I think the only thing we have going for us right now is reputation...we are a team that will bring viewers to the games and give the commentators something to talk about. IMO, for us to deserve a bid, we need to go 4-1 and a win the conference tourney, or 3-2 and two wins...preferably with one over Missouri, Florida, or another against Ole Miss. |
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Posted: 2/22/2013 10:03 PM
RE: 5 games to go
He may not get the seeds right...but it's in the upper 90's in terms of % when predicting which teams get in.
I'm not sure that's anything to brag about. My 10 year old son could probably get at least 60 teams right just before the pairings are announced. Lunardi's stuff a month out is junk, pure and simple.
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/22/2013 10:31 PM
RE: 5 games to go
You can say what you want about Lunardi, but he's missed a grand total of 6 teams making the field in the last 4 NCAA Tournaments, and one of those was Arizona in 2009. And there wasn't a human being anywhere that had them going except the committee. I don't give a rats toosh if he seeds them correctly, but he does give a pretty accurate feeling of who is in and out. Right now we are out, and deservedly so. We can right that, but we've gotta beat SOMEBODY of merit. And to answer your SEC question,...RIGHT NOW, 3 may be stretching it. Fla and Mizzou are in, but Ole Miss isn't a lock in my eyes. And the only other possibilities are us and Bama.
"It's a mere moment in a man's life between an All-Star Game and an Old-Timers Game." - Vin Scully |
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Posted: 2/22/2013 11:37 PM
RE: 5 games to go
I don't give a rats toosh if he seeds them correctly
I don't either, but you guys are missing my point. Those results are based on his last bracket, the one he does right before the selections are announced. Pretty much everyone knows who is in and who isn't at that point, so almost naming them all isn't really that big of a deal.
We're still a month out at this point. All I'm saying is people on internet sites all over give him way to much credence at this point in the season simply because he's on ESPN. He's just guessing like everyone else right now.
Don't panic
Last edited 2/22/2013 11:39 PM by CatFansince73
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Posted: 2/22/2013 11:40 PM
Re: 5 games to go
Lunardi is a guesser, like everyone else.
Now I know why people hate UK. |
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Posted: 2/22/2013 11:43 PM
Re: 5 games to go
If it makes you guys feel any better, the Bracket Project has UK as an 11 seed right now.
Sorry. I didn't mean for this to devolve into a discussion of the merits of Joe Lunardi. I was just trying to get a feel for where everyone thinks we stand and what we need to do to ensure a spot in the NCAA tournament. To that end, I think we need to win at least 2 remaining regular season games and one in the SEC tournament, to finish out 3-4. I think that gets us in. I remain surprised that so far everyone seems to think we need to almost win out even though we're currently in 3rd place.
Don't panic
Last edited 2/22/2013 11:49 PM by CatFansince73
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Posted: 2/23/2013 12:33 AM
Re: 5 games to go
Not counting the SEC tournament. How many do we need to win to ensure a berth in the NCAA tournament?
^^^^^^
Your original question CF73. I answered with a 4-1 record, and stated that the last 4 in/out would change almost daily. Never said anything about Lunardi specifically. I'm still standing by my numbers for us, as well as the SEC.
And as we speak, Jerry Palms from cbssports.com only has 2 SEC teams in and we ain't one of em. As well, USA Today has only 3 SEC teams in, with Alabama replacing Ole Miss. We are in the last 4 out along with the Rebels. We wanna play in the BIG tourney....don't lose!!!
"It's a mere moment in a man's life between an All-Star Game and an Old-Timers Game." - Vin Scully |
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Posted: 2/23/2013 8:47 AM
RE: 5 games to go
The bottom line is.....do any of you feel that UK deserves to be in the tourney??? They don't have one single quality win. Even if they beat missou tonight and finish 4-1, it is almost comical that a team who's best win would be against missou makes it in. I know they played a lot of games close against good teams but the bottom line is you have to win. I hope to god they get in and magically make some kind of run but I haven't even seen a glimmer of hope the entire season and that is just being realistic.
"ALL IN"
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Posted: 2/23/2013 10:40 AM
RE: 5 games to go
On their play and record, I do not believe UK deserves the tourney, but I would only exclude them by comparing their "at large" credentials with other prospects.
Last edited 2/23/2013 10:41 AM by Badinage
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Posted: 2/23/2013 11:23 AM
Re: 5 games to go
Mizzou fan here....on sheer talent alone you guys deserve to be in the field of 68. You have an elite coach as well. Hoping for a good game tonight, and I, for one, won't be all that upset if you guys win tonight. More of us that make it into the tourney the better. Personally, I think you guys are worrying needlessly. We can't seem to win on the road, and Florida is beatable. You guys are a much different team than you were earlier in the season. Your young guns have figured some things out.  |
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Posted: 2/23/2013 2:00 PM
Re: 5 games to go
If we finish the year 4-1 with a win tonight or against the gators i certainly think we will be in and deservingly so. This year is different than most years past. As some have said you cannot just look at ky alone, but compare Ky to the other 15-20 teams that are fighting to get in the tourny. There are a lot of teams that look very similar to ky on paper that will make it in.
I BLEED BLUE
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Posted: 2/23/2013 3:01 PM
Re: 5 games to go
What is the definition of a "quality win"? A win over a top 25 team? If that's the criteria for getting into the NCAA tournament you would only have about a 40 team field.
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/23/2013 5:38 PM
Re: 5 games to go
If we win tonight. We would be in the tournament if selection day were tomorrow. If we win at Arkansas we would be in extremely good shape. However I don't feel that Arkansas is must win, but we cannot lose to Georgia. If we beat Florida at Rupp as well as Missouri tonight we would be an absolute lock for the tourney.
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Posted: 2/23/2013 6:24 PM
Re: 5 games to go
Bama losing to LSU puts us back into a tie for 2nd in the conference if we can beat Missouri tonight. The conference tournament seeding might end up being pretty important to picking up another win or two, but the top four seeds all get double byes anyway. Unless we end up with the second seed we likely wouldn't get any opportunities for easy wins, but at the same time we would be well rested for whomever our opponent ended up being.
#1 will be Florida, but after that it's anyone's guess. The #2 seed (Bama holds the tiebreaker over us) plays the winner of the #7 v. #10 game. #3 would play the winner of the #6 v. #11/14, and #4 plays the winner of #5 v. #12/13. Currently there isn't a whole lot of difference between teams 2 thru 6.
Don't panic
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Posted: 2/23/2013 6:31 PM
Re: 5 games to go
CatFansince73 wrote: Bama losing to LSU puts us back into a tie for 2nd in the conference if we can beat Missouri tonight. The conference tournament seeding might end up being pretty important to picking up another win or two, but the top four seeds all get double byes anyway. Unless we end up with the second seed we likely wouldn't get any opportunities for easy wins, but at the same time we would be well rested for whomever our opponent ended up being.
#1 will be Florida, but after that it's anyone's guess. The #2 seed (Bama holds the tiebreaker over us) plays the winner of the #7 v. #10 game. #3 would play the winner of the #6 v. #11/14, and #4 plays the winner of #5 v. #12/13. Currently there isn't a whole lot of difference between teams 2 thru 6. I see Bama losing atleast 2 more games to Florida, and Ole Miss. I don't think it's an absolute certainty the Florida will be the #1. They still have to go to UT, I and could see them losing there. And they have to come to Rupp. I think we can be beat them in Rupp not saying we will, but it is possible. Plus Florida needs to avenge their loss to Arkansas. Maybe Arkansas can prove to be a bad match-up for Florida, and stuns them again. Not saying that will happen, but it could. If we beat Missouri tonight, and win on the road at Arkansas I believe when Florida comes to Rupp we will be playing for either a share of the SEC regular season title, or even an outright title. And the 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Last edited 2/23/2013 6:37 PM by RONDORAMA
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Posted: 2/23/2013 9:01 PM
Re: 5 games to go
Love your optimism! --------------------------------------------- --- RONDORAMA wrote: CatFansince73 wrote: Bama losing to LSU puts us back into a tie for 2nd in the conference if we can beat Missouri tonight. The conference tournament seeding might end up being pretty important to picking up another win or two, but the top four seeds all get double byes anyway. Unless we end up with the second seed we likely wouldn't get any opportunities for easy wins, but at the same time we would be well rested for whomever our opponent ended up being.
#1 will be Florida, but after that it's anyone's guess. The #2 seed (Bama holds the tiebreaker over us) plays the winner of the #7 v. #10 game. #3 would play the winner of the #6 v. #11/14, and #4 plays the winner of #5 v. #12/13. Currently there isn't a whole lot of difference between teams 2 thru 6. I see Bama losing atleast 2 more games to Florida, and Ole Miss. I don't think it's an absolute certainty the Florida will be the #1. They still have to go to UT, I and could see them losing there. And they have to come to Rupp. I think we can be beat them in Rupp not saying we will, but it is possible. Plus Florida needs to avenge their loss to Arkansas. Maybe Arkansas can prove to be a bad match-up for Florida, and stuns them again. Not saying that will happen, but it could. If we beat Missouri tonight, and win on the road at Arkansas I believe when Florida comes to Rupp we will be playing for either a share of the SEC regular season title, or even an outright title. And the 1 seed in the conference tournament. --------------------------------------------- |
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Posted: 2/23/2013 11:54 PM
RE: 5 games to go
Well, we started that out right. While the only "acceptable" loss remains Florida, any result short of losing the last 4 straight and we are in. The team that gutted out that win against Mizzou will go 3-1 to close it out. I hope they continue to show up and improve.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:18 AM
RE: 5 games to go
MikeR111 wrote: The bottom line is.....do any of you feel that UK deserves to be in the tourney??? They don't have one single quality win. Even if they beat missou tonight and finish 4-1, it is almost comical that a team who's best win would be against missou makes it in. I know they played a lot of games close against good teams but the bottom line is you have to win. I hope to god they get in and magically make some kind of run but I haven't even seen a glimmer of hope the entire season and that is just being realistic. Really? I would love to see your 9 through 13 seeds and how their credentials stack up...because there will be teams that get at large bids who don't have better credentials than UK. UK Boise St. Iowa St. UC California Akron Creighton Temple St Marys Charlotte Bucknell Louisianna Tech Lasalle Ole Miss Southern Miss Some of these teams will get 10 and 11 seeds.... which ones should get them before UK, I am interested to hear your take and why they are more deserving than UK
Last edited 2/24/2013 12:30 AM by MyTeam8Rings
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:25 AM
RE: 5 games to go
GabbleRatchet wrote: Well, we started that out right. While the only "acceptable" loss remains Florida, any result short of losing the last 4 straight and we are in. The team that gutted out that win against Mizzou will go 3-1 to close it out. I hope they continue to show up and improve. I hope you're right. I think we're seeing a new team identity emerging and hopefully it's one that won't lose to teams they shouldn't lose to--like Georgia. Praise heaven and Joe Lunardi! We're back in!  Don't panic
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Posted: 2/24/2013 9:54 AM
RE: 5 games to go
Guy, I am not seeding the tourney field......lol. I don't have time for that. My logic is that if you don't have a legit shot to win it all....then who cares. If they make it fine if they don't fine....they won't last very long unless they get very hot or lucky. --------------------------------------------- --- MyTeam8Rings wrote: MikeR111 wrote: The bottom line is.....do any of you feel that UK deserves to be in the tourney??? They don't have one single quality win. Even if they beat missou tonight and finish 4-1, it is almost comical that a team who's best win would be against missou makes it in. I know they played a lot of games close against good teams but the bottom line is you have to win. I hope to god they get in and magically make some kind of run but I haven't even seen a glimmer of hope the entire season and that is just being realistic. Really? I would love to see your 9 through 13 seeds and how their credentials stack up...because there will be teams that get at large bids who don't have better credentials than UK. UK Boise St. Iowa St. UC California Akron Creighton Temple St Marys Charlotte Bucknell Louisianna Tech Lasalle Ole Miss Southern Miss Some of these teams will get 10 and 11 seeds.... which ones should get them before UK, I am interested to hear your take and why they are more deserving than UK --------------------------------------------- "ALL IN"
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