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WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why

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Posted: 8/31/2014 8:57 PM

WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


The Toppers are coming off an impressive win. The  Illini struggled against Youngstown State, a  NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (formerly known as Division I-AA) team. The game is at Illinois, and they are a Big Ten team. Exposition is welcome.

BTW, I have seats in Section 109. Is anyone else going?

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Posted: 8/31/2014 10:04 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I think we shouldn't be deceived into thinking that since Youngtown almost beat Ilinois that WKU will come in and man-handle the Illini.  I believe Illinois had a D1 transfer at QB that had a bad game but still pulled it out in the 4th quarter. 

The "ifs" in this game for me are:
1. If WKU's OL can give Doughty time to throw we can expect our offense to be very effective.  No way we have 700 yards ever again.  However, I think it's realistic to believe we can score 35 against Illinois if all cylinders are firing. 

2. If WKU can get pressure on the Illinois QB it will be key in giving our Dee confidence.

3. If we can score early it will give us a good confidence boost. 

If I am being optimistic I would predict a narrow victory for WKU by the score of  35-31. 

If I stick with my early season  prediction I would predict a WKU loss by the score of  31-24.
--Legalism says God will love us if we change. Jesus says He will change us if we surrender to His Love --
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Posted: 9/1/2014 10:39 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I'm optimistic, but I remember the let-down against Tennessee last year.  This team isn't playing MAC talent at home.  It's Big 10 talent on the road.  If we can remained focused this week, then we can pull out a victory.  If we let everyone pat us on the back, then we're in for a long day on Saturday.  I would love a win, but  I've got to go with the Illini in this one.  

Illinois-------------------------34

Hilltoppers-------------------27
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Posted: 9/1/2014 11:52 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


One thing I've noticed just being around the team and watching the game friday is that they are a reflection of the QB. Doughty has been through a long career and has learned a ton of lessons. The way the team played friday night is a reflection of that maturity. I don't doubt for a second that the letdown against UT last year has been discussed to no end by the coaching staff and players this week. I don't think we are the type of team thats going to have a letdown this year.

The only way Illinois beats us is going to be by just being the better team. But I do not believe they are the better team, so I'm going WKU 38-Illinois 27.
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Posted: 9/1/2014 12:17 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why Post Rating (1 vote)


I know this is a prediction thread but it's a FOOTBALL TOPIC..something very rare so I will go ahead and be a ass (as usual) and ask...

why do we fans always make excuse to why for our team and the opponent?

Western played over their heads. Well of course no one expected 700 yards but but Brandon Doughty did hit on 64% of his passes last year and that number probably goes up to 68% if our receivers catch the ones that hits them right in their hands. So instead of connecting on 46 passes Brandon Doughty connects on 38 passes based on his average game from last year.

As for Brandon Doughty INTs last year ...he had 2 bad games (8 of his 14 int) early in the season running a totally new offense and here's a excuse. Half of those were not Doughty fault. Other than those 2 games Brandon Doughty didn't give up the ball any more than Cato who had a int in 8 games and 2 in 1 of those

I for one think Allen is a better runner than his numbers on Friday...Ill couldn't get off the field because they could stop YTST on the ground

As for Ill's qb having a bad game...I must have watched a different game. He hit 63% of his passes, 285 yards, 4 tds and no int. The no int is really out of the norm considering he had 7 in 131 attempts @OSU

Ill was 8-15 on 3rd down, hit 63% of their passes, only 1 turnover, so they didn't play a bad game.

I picked this game as a loss but honestly only because of Ill returning I believe 10 defensive starters. But I don't believe they played that much "under" their ability and Western played that much "over" ours. As for the UT game last year....


comparing Tenn to Ill even in a down period is about like comparing Western in basketball to EKU there is that much difference in their programs. We might lose this game but if it does it will not be because of a overwhelming difference in talent from BG to Ill. Nope it will be because Western made mistakes.

Same pick as last week
Western 31
BG/ILL 24

Last edited 9/1/2014 12:20 PM by garysbrain

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Posted: 9/1/2014 1:59 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


For a team on our schedule to beat us this year they will have to score 40 pts or more.
IL will not be that team.
WKU 41
IL 24

Go Big Red!
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Posted: 9/1/2014 2:27 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


We might as well stay home because Illinois will destroy us on Saturday according to Ricky Widmer. 

This guys says   "Mark my words! The Bill Cubit offense will destroy the weak Western Kentucky defense!"
Illinois 63  WKU 28

http://writingillini.com/2014/08/04/illinois-football-2014-schedule-preview-western-kentucky-hilltoppers/
--Legalism says God will love us if we change. Jesus says He will change us if we surrender to His Love --
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Posted: 9/1/2014 2:46 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 



robjbrown99 wrote: I think we shouldn't be deceived into thinking that since Youngtown almost beat Ilinois that WKU will come in and man-handle the Illini.  I believe Illinois had a D1 transfer at QB that had a bad game but still pulled it out in the 4th quarter. 

The "ifs" in this game for me are:
1. If WKU's OL can give Doughty time to throw we can expect our offense to be very effective.  No way we have 700 yards ever again.  However, I think it's realistic to believe we can score 35 against Illinois if all cylinders are firing. 

2. If WKU can get pressure on the Illinois QB it will be key in giving our Dee confidence.

3. If we can score early it will give us a good confidence boost. 

If I am being optimistic I would predict a narrow victory for WKU by the score of  35-31. 

If I stick with my early season  prediction I would predict a WKU loss by the score of  31-24.
Toss up imo.  I'm def more optimistic after the first game, but my prediction before the season was about the same as yours.  

It will be interesting to see how Illinois tries to defend us, and how we adjust to it.  BGSU had 8 people in the box all night, so we just threw  to our mismatches.  I think one strength of our offense will be our versatility.  So if they play off the line, I'm optimistic that we can run the ball.

One prediction i will make with confidence.  If we can run the ball and set up play action, we will win.  I'm not trying to over hype our skill players on the outside, but I feel it's safe to say we'll be tough to stop if the opposing teams secondary starts peaking into the backfield.

I still feel like we could win with the air raid offense again this week, but we will be on the road and the likely hood of mistakes increase in hostile environments.  But I do have confidence in Coach Brohm to go with whatever's working.  Looking forward to it.  Go Tops!!
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Posted: 9/1/2014 3:57 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


Who wins?  I don't have a clue.  So many questions here.  My thoughts:

1.  Brohm had this game circled and had been laser focused on Bowling Green all summer.  I think WKU took Bowling Green more seriously than Bowling Green took WKU.  Unless he gets another summer vacation to prepare for Illinois Coach Brohm may not be able to slice them and dice them quite as effectively as he did the Falcons.

2.  WKU was good on Friday, but also a bit lucky.  The Falcons dropped a couple of home run passes early i the game Friday that woulda coulda shoulda been touchdowns.  If they had those two scores early then the whole psychology of the game would have been different.  Who knows... maybe they could have climbed back into the game and won it.  Add in the gamble to go on 4rth that could have been 3 points and that easily could have been a very different game.  

3.  A Big 10 team will be talented, even a bottom tier one.  Illinois will not be easy on the road.  I have no idea how they would compare to UK of last year. 

4.  I was reading the Louisville boards after we beat KY last year and some of their fans were recalling how the Petrino teams progressed when he was there before.  Some of them were expecting games like the one we had Friday to happen by the end of last season.  That never quite happened but I am wondering if this could be what to expect from the Petrino/Brohm offense, it just takes some time to install.  Once it gets rolling it really gets rolling.

TheHill banner by you.

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Posted: 9/1/2014 4:57 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


To answer you question   Yes on the offense...... We were built bor a west coast offense and to run the ball.... qB has been Thur 2 springs ..... And he has more weapons to throw too

 

i think the difference will be how we react to adversity.... We lead the whole way and no TO's.   Bgsu also had no TO..... I hope it will be much closer and our D will have to make a few big plays...... They did early which helped us to build the big lead

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Posted: 9/1/2014 5:13 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I enjoyed listening to Illinois coach press conference today.  He seems reasonable enough. 
At about the 14:00 minute mark he talks about Doughty, WKU program, mentions Jack Harbaugh. 
However, he then says there is not a lot of difference between our program and Youngstown State.
He didn't intend to slight us but if we aren't better than Youngtown State at this point in our FBS journey then we are heading in the wrong direction. 

http://www.fightingillini.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/090114aaa.html
--Legalism says God will love us if we change. Jesus says He will change us if we surrender to His Love --
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Posted: 9/1/2014 5:57 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why Post Rating (1 vote)


I remember the one drop by BG in the 1st qt but I don't recall another and that one play could have changed up the score but BG never showed they could stop us...

so it wouldn't have changed the out come. Then again I remember a sure TD by Western that was just as easy of a catch as the one by BG. To think any part of this win was luck is just crazy to me. Western Dominate a team about as much as we dominated S. Miss 2 years ago. I could play the what if game for Western also...

What if the reason BG scored 2 tds fairly easy was because Western just went up 28 points on them and we relaxed on defense. Hell just as soon as BG scored their 2nd td a 2 play td in the 3rd qt what did Western do? Scored then forced them into punting on 4 plays then we scored again.

Are we as good on offense as we showed on Friday? most likely no but we could be and that's scary it's scary even if we are in the same neighborhood good. But luck wasn't the reason we won or stomped the dog crap out of BG. A drop passed that should have been a td wasn't either.
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Posted: 9/1/2014 7:53 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


Well Gary I certainly hope that you are right and we are really as good as we looked Friday.  But something tells me we will come back to earth a little bit.  That's all.

TheHill banner by you.

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Posted: 9/1/2014 9:11 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


No way did we "relax" and let them score. It's just hard to hold an explosive talented team all night. They just finally clicked and made some plays. I do agree with you that they had no chance of holding us either. We could have scored every possession. It's just a matter of concentration. Dough try's metamorphosis into a poised senior should be our best recruiting tool ever. If I were our guys, I'd show QB recruits the UT game, then last Friday's after Brohms coaching. Not in the same hemisphere.

 

I'm not sure I agree with the popular opinion that Doughty "can't do it again." We'll play a lot of teams that are inferior to BGSU and I think he could easily replicate that. These were mostly relaxed easy throws with nice separation by receivers. The real question for me is, "Will Coach have as much respect for other teams." He left Brandon in all game out of respect for the Falcon's explosiveness. I think it was the right thing to do and not piling it on, personally.

 

dough-try? Freaking spell check!

Last edited 9/1/2014 9:13 PM by haskins

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Posted: 9/1/2014 10:14 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why Post Rating (1 vote)


That's OK we have a longggggggggggg drop to get back down to earth so I will take a "little bit". I understand what some of you are saying but I think it' takes away from the game this team played by trying to justify the way we won... on luck or the other team dropping a ball or missing a few tackles.  If that's the case BG must have got lucky also because tackles we made all game we started missing mid way through the 3rd qt after going up 28.

By some fans bring luck into this it takes away from a record setting game by BD. I have a honest question I would like someone to tell me the answer to...

what pass did BD make that any of you thought was a lucky pass? The passes I saw were the same ones he hit consistently over the last 3 or 4 games last year. With one difference...just about all of them were caught and gained yardage  in big chunks. Well was that because we have good receivers or lucky because BG missed the tackle?

If you said luck then how are some of you giving BG credit for their drives in the 2nd half? We made those tackles when the game was in doubt. We missed a lot when we dropped into a 3 man front. Is BD a 500 yard a game QB? I don't think so but he was on Friday and luck had nothing to do with any of his passes. What I saw was a QB that read the defense, made good decisions, stayed in the pocket till the pressure made him leave it but still made good decisions once he did.

Saturday is a new game but if we control Ill running game they will have a hard time keeping up with our 95 plays a game. The pace we play does not allow for many defensive changes and that right there had a lot more to do with BD having the night he had...than luck.

Go Tops!
WKUSlamDunk wrote: Well Gary I certainly hope that you are right and we are really as good as we looked Friday.  But something tells me we will come back to earth a little bit.  That's all.
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Posted: 9/2/2014 2:01 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


The 95 plays may be my favorite stat of the night. That's just absurd. If we can replicate that Brandon has a good chance to put up just crazy numbers all year. And if teams start keying on him then Leon and Ace will do it.
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Posted: 9/2/2014 8:18 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I agree with you gary.  It wasn't luck that we held them scoreless in the 1st quarter and that we put up almost 21 points in that time period.  it wasn't luck that our offensive line gave Doughty the time he needed. It wasn't luck that our guys were catching well thrown balls.  Some have pointed to the missed TD pass by BGSU but we also missed a for sure TD pass to Dangerfield. 

The only thing that may have resembled good luck was the fact that we fumbled the ball 3 times and recovered all 3 of them.  However, good fortune might be a term that I would use to describe our win.
We aren't going to throw 82% completion percentage every game and we aren't always going to get
that type of pass protection but the Toppers played hard and earned that win.  It wasn't luck or a fluke.
garysbrain wrote:

By some fans bring luck into this it takes away from a record setting game by BD. I have a honest question I would like someone to tell me the answer to...

what pass did BD make that any of you thought was a lucky pass?
--Legalism says God will love us if we change. Jesus says He will change us if we surrender to His Love --
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Posted: 9/2/2014 9:29 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I was out of town Friday, did Clemmons not even play Fri. night? If so that would our best OL missing......I hope if he did miss he is back Saturday....We made it look easy Fri night, its not like BD was throwing bombs down the field.....Have a feeling we might take more shots down the field Saturday...Do I think we will go over 700 yards again? Probably not, but with this type of system I think we will continue to put up some numbers....some of these CUSA teams are not known for defense, the toughest conf. defense might just be the first one vs. MTSU...

I was not worried about our offense in year 2 and Friday night seemed to play out our offense is just fine...I expected to struggle with completely different offense last season, but this season our WR's have grown and the blocking down field by Dangerfield was really great and something that was missing last year..

As far as this Saturday goes, not sure about the other players but our leader of the team is BD and I would say he is ready and has moved on based on his Twitter feed...He said something to the effect of stop mentioning me on Twitter for game this past Friday, I have moved on to Illinois game....To me that is someone who is focused and being a true leader who learned last season you cannot get too high after a win......I think we will be ready Saturday based on BD's comments....

Wish we could repost all the smack talk about about basketball team when we faced the Illni in 2009 NCAA tournament...Basically it was Illinois was way too tall for us and would destroy us inside...We ran around their bigs all night that night and dominated them...\

Football season prediction I know I predicted a loss her but we keep the momentum going:

WKU 42

Illinois 39
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Posted: 9/2/2014 10:13 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


WKU wins 38-24
BD learned a lot from the Tenn game last yr. He will lead this team! Defense keeps improving.
Go Toppers!!!!
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Posted: 9/2/2014 11:53 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


I have already picked WKU 35 - Illinois 31 as my optimistic pick      
                             and   WKU 24 - Illinois 31 as my not so optimistic pick.


Having said that  I want to list three "ifs" for our defense then we can win this game.

If our defense
   can figure out how to make better open field tackles 
   can defend the "red-zone" effectively 
   can force at least one opportunistic turn over.
--Legalism says God will love us if we change. Jesus says He will change us if we surrender to His Love --
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Posted: 9/2/2014 2:41 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


Worst team in the Big Ten

WKU = 35
Illinois = 21
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Posted: 9/2/2014 4:46 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


Toe jam I thought that was OSU...... Don't you miss 1aa football. We be playing at wiu this weekend

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Posted: 9/2/2014 7:11 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 



garysbrain wrote: That's OK we have a longggggggggggg drop to get back down to earth so I will take a "little bit". I understand what some of you are saying but I think it' takes away from the game this team played by trying to justify the way we won... on luck or the other team dropping a ball or missing a few tackles.  If that's the case BG must have got lucky also because tackles we made all game we started missing mid way through the 3rd qt after going up 28.


I am not trying to say that we were lucky to win.  This was a blowout for crying out loud.  Brohm has a system that works, we have talented and experienced players that have worked very hard in the off season, and on Friday they executed that offense to pristine perfection.  That is not luck and the last thing I want to do is take away from what was a historic performance by our players and staff.

But when you set records like we did Friday it means everything went right.  Even Brohm said in the postgame that everything went our way Friday or something to that effect.  That won't happen every game, especially on the road against a P5.

I'm not even saying we can't or won't beat Illinois.  I think it is a tough call.  Should be a great game.

TheHill banner by you.

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Posted: 9/2/2014 8:16 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


if Doughty has time and doesn't hold the ball, scoring won't be a problem. i want to see the running game start better, and to get a better pass rush. if those happen, we should win.
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Posted: 9/3/2014 3:54 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


What is your prediction?
TheOriginalDiogenes wrote:

The Toppers are coming off an impressive win. The  Illini struggled against Youngstown State, a  NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (formerly known as Division I-AA) team. The game is at Illinois, and they are a Big Ten team. Exposition is welcome.

BTW, I have seats in Section 109. Is anyone else going?

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Posted: 9/3/2014 6:30 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


 

WKU is coming off a spectacular win that garnered national attention, primarily because of the passing blitzkrieg . The Illini struggled at home, trailing Youngstown State after three quarters before putting them away in the end. The game is on their field, but I am going with the hot hand (and my heart). Toppers 28-Illini 21.


BTW, I hope to see some of you at the game. Go Toppers!!! ;D ;D ;D
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Posted: 9/4/2014 10:25 PM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


WKU 24 UI 21

Much more of a ground game this Saturday. Allen and Wales combine for 160 yards. More play action out of the backfield and screens than in our game against BGSU.
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Posted: 9/5/2014 5:53 AM

Re: WKU v. Illinois-Who wins and why 


Allen and Wales run well, Mitchell Henry has big catches over the middle, Doughty is efficient with the ball, Taylor gets loose downfield a couple of times and the Toppers click for a 37- 21 win.
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