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Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections)

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Posted: 6/7/2014 2:43 PM

Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


BIG TEN

Ohio State 10.5

Michigan State 9.5

Wisconsin 9.5
Iowa 8.5

Michigan 8

Nebraska 8

Penn State 8

Maryland 6.5

Minnesota 6.5

Northwestern 6

Illinois 5

Indiana 5

Rutgers 4.5

Purdue 3.5


Read more: http://thegazette.com/subject/sports/iowas-footbal l-over-under-number-is-20140605#ixzz33z3rKHQy

The CR Gazette took this from bettingtalk.com

It looks like Wisconsin v. Ohio St for the Big Ten championship game. Glad we got  this is over.  . . .  Now we can start chirping about 2015.

Getting back to 2014 for a moment. My thoughts are that Wisconsin and MSU are overrated, and I hate to jinx anyone, but Iowa and Michigan might be underrated.
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Posted: 6/7/2014 2:54 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


You know over/unders aren't meant to be a prediction, right? They're meant to get $ placed on both sides.

Head Full of Doubt, Road Full of Promise
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Posted: 6/7/2014 2:59 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


Nebraska jumps out to me, and I'd take the over. I don't think they'll lose more than 3 road games, and their toughest home games are Miami and Minnesota.

Head Full of Doubt, Road Full of Promise
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Posted: 6/7/2014 3:31 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


These numbers are not even money.   if you like the over with ohio st, you have to put up $150 to win $100.     You can put any number next to any team  but the moneyline is the key.
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Posted: 6/7/2014 11:46 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 



IAhawk15 wrote: You know over/unders aren't meant to be a prediction, right? They're meant to get $ placed on both sides.
This couldn't be further from the truth.
"Here's how I think of my money -- as soldiers -- I send them out to war everyday. I want them to take prisoners and come home, so there's more of them." - Kevin O'Leary
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Posted: 6/8/2014 1:18 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


Take the under on Wisconsin.

They will probably win 8 maximum this year.

The division is Iowa's to lose.
U-Rah-Rah   Wis-Con-Sin
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Posted: 6/8/2014 5:53 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 



847badgerfan wrote: Take the under on Wisconsin.

They will probably win 8 maximum this year.

The division is Iowa's to lose.
Please don't say this.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v639/faststick2021/IowaApexJerseyshot.jpg
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Posted: 6/8/2014 8:30 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


So it is said. So it is done.

I've been wrong on Iowa for about the last 10 years. One of these time I'll get it right.
U-Rah-Rah   Wis-Con-Sin
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Posted: 6/9/2014 5:08 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 



draftnik12 wrote:
IAhawk15 wrote: You know over/unders aren't meant to be a prediction, right? They're meant to get $ placed on both sides.
This couldn't be further from the truth.
"They're meant to get 100% of the money on the overs"

There, I made it further from the truth tongue

In fairness, books differ in their approaches from line to line and book to book.  The more they think the public is on the wrong side, the more comfortable they are taking especially heavy action against that side (and the reverse is true if the think the public is on the right side).

Also worth noting: when you have -110 lines, there's a lot of leeway in terms of what kind of action split will be profitable for a book (not to mention that books will get to hold your money for around 6 months if you bet win totals right now).  Consider a relatively even line, Minnesota, and let's say that it's at -110 each side (apparently it's actually --115 each side, per betting talk which is even higher vig).  Here are some potential bet splits assuming -110 on each side:


50% split
No matter what happens (other than a push which at half win totals is impossible) the book makes their vig.  So if there's effectively $550 to win $500 on each side, the book pays $500 and makes $550 for a net of $50.  That's a nice profit.

55% action on the over
So let's say that there's $605 to win $550 on the over, and $495 to win $450 on the under.  If the over hits, the book makes 495 and pays 550 for a net loss of $55.  If the under hits, the book makes 605 and pays 450 for a net gain of $155.  That's basically 3:1 odds.  Unless the book totally thinks they blew it, 3:1 odds is a great place to be and there's no real incentive to need to get it any closer to 50-50 than that.  And to clarify, the Vegas book is actually -115, which makes it a 182.5 gain vs 32.5 loss, which is better than FIVE to one, and that's STILL ignoring the time value of your money.

60% action on the over
So let's say that there's $660 to win $600 on the over, and $440 to win $400 on the under.  If the over hits, the book makes 440 and pays 600 for a net loss of $160.  If the under hits, the book makes 660 and pays 400 for a net gain of $260.  That's close to 2:1 odds.  Which is still a pretty solid position for what theoretically amounts to a tossup line (and again, the Vegas book is actually -115, which makes it a 290 gain vs 140 loss, which is better than 2:1)

70% action on the over
Now you get just a bit trickier for the book, at least at -110, where you get a 470 win vs 370 loss.  Still, at -115 it's 505 vs 355, which is still nearly 1.5 to 1, hardly a bad spot.  And 70-30 is a REALLY large split for almost any kind of bet.

So basically, unless the action is REALLY skewed to one side of the other, the vig makes it a pretty cushy spot for a book to be, especially when you use higher vig points.  So there really isn't all that much incentive to "equalize" betting lines, especially when a book has action on a large number of different, largely independent, lines at the same time.

If absolutely everyone was betting Minnesota for some reason, and that became a huge chunk of their business for the year, then yes, there's more of an incentive to be more responsive to bets so that at least you didn't get a huge skew over or under.  But when it's just one of very many bets at the same book, it just doesn't matter all that much whether or not action is equal or even close to equal.
 
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Posted: 6/9/2014 5:56 PM

Re: Las Vegas Over/Under (2014 Win projections) 


Nebraska at 8....where'd they get number?
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