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Faith in Kelly
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Posted: 01/25/2013 9:43 AM
Faith in Kelly
So with the discussion on ME I was looking more into Kelly's stats and what he did (For Tarantula lol). I was even more impressed. Look at what he did compared to other ASU QB's who played as Sophomores.
Taylor Kelly's Stats as a Sophomore (first year with playing time) 241/359 67%, 3039 total passing yards, 29 TD's, 9 Int, 233 y/g, Team Record 8-5
Jake Plummer's Stats as a Sophomore (second year of starting) 159/294 54%, 2179 total passing yards, 15 TD's, 9 Int, 198 y/g, Team Record 3-8
Andrew Walter's Stats as a Sophomore (2nd year starting, was Freshman All PAC) 274/483 57%, 3877 total Passing yards, 28 TD's, 15 Int, 277 y/g, Team Record 8-6
Rudy Carpenter's Stats as a Sophomore (2nd year starting, Hon Men Fresh All American) 184/332 55%, 2523 total passing yards, 23 TD's, 14 Int, 194 y/g, Team Record 7-6
Looking at those stats I think we have a bright future. Especially with the guys we have as back ups and with Dobbs coming in.
Kelly not only outperformed them statistically, but the team had a higher winning percentage. The only person who may have better stats was Walter. But that's when only looking at total passing yards and yards per game. Kelly had better percentage, and touchdown to interception ratio. And most of those guys played significantly as Freshman.
Next year is going to be a fun year for ASU fans. A solid team playing against some good competition. September can't come quick enough.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 9:47 AM
Re: Faith in Kelly
The more telling statistic would be what happens with those guys Junior year.
Knock on wood, I'm just glad we've got a returning starter for the first time in five seasons.
Carpenter Sullivan, Oz, Szac Threet Oz Kelly
We've had 6 starters in five years...
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Representing ASU in the Roaring Fork Valley!
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Posted: 01/25/2013 9:56 AM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Notice, I did not include rushing stats in there. Kelly ended up with over 500 yards rushing, average nearly 4 yards a carry. While Jake the Snake rushing stats his sophomore year was -92 (yes, negative) yards total. For some reason I am not sure if that is correct, but thats the number I found.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 10:37 AM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Those are great! He's really only second to A-Dub in passing yardage, and that's because of Koetter's super pass heavy system. I'd wager to say Kelly had more rushing yardage on his own than the entire ASU team did that season. (Or close to it)
As for the junior years, with Jake we still had a very young team that went a respectable 6-5 that year and got hosed in the au game that would've made it 7-4. Walter was the sole bright spot for us in 2003 where we had no defense, no running game, no nothing really. We lost a good chunk of Snyder's recruits in 2002 including Suggs and started seeing the full effect of DK's recruiting. Carpenter had a similar story losing pretty much his entire supporting cast except his receivers. That line in 2008 was beyond pathetic and having Rich Olsen as an OC didn't help.
I think for TK, with Coyle, Grice, DJ, and most of the line returning, he'll be in decent shape, far better than his predecessors, especially if someone can step up at receiver. It also doesn't hurt having an awesome defense returning on the other side of the ball.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 11:46 AM
RE: Faith in Kelly
Hard to imagine anyone not having anything but complete faith in TK. That man has worked his ass off to get where is is and has played great for us.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 12:19 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Well thank you for starting a thread on my behalf, I am flattered. My opinion won't change with some stats. In the big games, his play was poor. In games against bad teams, he played well. Norvell did a good job of play calling for him; Low risk, high percentage throws, and when they leave our WRs in 1-on-1, take a shot deep. Still has below average arm strength, but to his credit it appeared as if they worked on the read option with him during the bowl practices, because he was MUCH better on that than he had been in the last 3-4 games.
Follow me on Twitter @mister_mvp for as much news on ASU, AZ Cardinals, and local HS football as you can handle.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 12:43 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
Regardless of his skill set, he appears to be the best option we have at QB. I love that Norvell played to his strengths and minimized his weakness, that is a sign of a good coach as most players at every level need to be put in positions to shine at what they do best. How much more so with young inexperienced QBs which is what we would have had this year no matter who started.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:09 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
The stats that I care about are not the stats against bad teams like NAU, Illinios, WSU, etc, I'd like to see his stats against good teams. Just like Threet racked up stats against bad teams and stunk agaist good teams. But, I really don't care about stats, 3rd down conversion percent is key because it shows your QB can keep a drive alive not Comp %, and avoding INTs or Fumbles is key, after that you can worry about yards and TDs.
Eubank vs Kelly is really a no brainer, all I have to do is play the Oregon, UCLA, Oregon St, and USC games back and see with my own eyes Kelly can't win against good teams. Marion Grice and our D won the Arizona game, and Navy and WSU were just bad teams. Not saying Eubank would have done better than kelly (although I think his upside is way higher), but saying to stick with what did not work is bad.
The question is not if you can beat the bad teams, The question is can you beat the teams that are above you. Graham dropped the ball and kept Kelly the starter. I liked everything Graham did to that point, once he stuck to his guns and did not risk the QB change, he lost my respect. We'll see what happens. But Dobbs looking around, has alot to do with ASU living the Danny White dream instead of the Colin Kaepernick reality.
If Harbaugh looked at Stats,
70.2% completion percent with 1,737 and 13 td and 5 Ints in 10 games...in 2012
Alex Smith would still be the starting Qb of 49ers and they'd be home again, because Alex Smith was 1 for 13 on 3rd down conversions when it mattered in the NFC Championshp game last year.
Here is when I knew Kelly is Fools Gold....Rick Neuheisel loved him as much as Kevin Prince.
ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly: "For Taylor Kelly to come as far as he’s come, being considered the third of the three candidates in the spring, is one of the great stories in the conference this year. It’s not an accident; he’s played terrifically. You worried a little bit about him on the road and what that will do to his confidence after the Missouri game, because there were some chances to win that game with better throws and better decisions. But I think he came back and had a great game against Cal, especially when Cal cut the deficit to 3 and he went right down the field for a touchdown. And against, Colorado, who is outmanned right now, he showed he hasn’t slowed down. His numbers at home have been astronomical. If he has any kind of game and gets that crowd revved up, I think he’ll have a chance to re-create history. They’ll be calling him ‘Jake the Snake’ Kelly." The outcome: "I’m not ruling the Sun Devils out by any stretch of the imagination. They’re a really good team. I think the nation hasn’t given them the credit they deserve, partially because of the loss at Missouri and then Missouri’s subsequent failures, but I think ASU has got everything they need to be successful in this kind of game. … I’m taking ASU."
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:18 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
Sundevilnation wrote: Regardless of his skill set, he appears to be the best option we have at QB. I love that Norvell played to his strengths and minimized his weakness, that is a sign of a good coach as most players at every level need to be put in positions to shine at what they do best. How much more so with young inexperienced QBs which is what we would have had this year no matter who started. Without a doubt, that's why I gave Norvell so much credit. When he calls a game like that, it makes TK a real weapon.
Follow me on Twitter @mister_mvp for as much news on ASU, AZ Cardinals, and local HS football as you can handle.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:21 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Turn on USC, Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State. Abysmal. USC was a winnable game with the amount of turnovers we forced. If that second tipped screen pass against UA would have been intercepted like it should have been, we likely lose that game, as I believe we were trailing by 10(?) at that point. Not to mention he got Foster's head knocked off in the bowl game with that soft lob down the seam.
Follow me on Twitter @mister_mvp for as much news on ASU, AZ Cardinals, and local HS football as you can handle.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:25 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
DevilSinceMisConception wrote:. But Dobbs looking around, has alot to do with ASU living the Danny White dream instead of the Colin Kaepernick reality. I don't know what you mean? You bring up a high school QB who is being recruited by ASU, an ex ASU QB from the 70's, and a current NFL QB for the 49ers. Help me make the connection between them? Then you point out Smith 2012's stats compared with a 2011 game.
Second, how long has Smith played in the NFL now? How many years of experience does he have (including college)? You can't compare his situation to a Kelly.
I think you may be missing my point. My point is this. Taylor Kelly was a Sophomore this year, without any playing time experience as a freshman. He put those numbers up with that lack of experience and the lack of quality WR's.
Does he have room to improve. Sure he does. But when compared to where Jake Plummer, Andrew Walter, and Brock were at his age, there is a chance at a bright future with him.
And if I recall, people were beginning to question Graham putting ME in games, because it seemed Kelly was on a roll and ME would come in and we would lose that momentum. I thought the game plan there towards the end of the season worked out. Kelly is the QB and played the game. It situations of short yardage or goal line, ME came in. It worked. Where as the beginning of the season it seemed like they were trying to give ME more snaps during the games.
Now I also want to be clear. I am not trying to diminish ME with this thread, but point out I think we have something good with Kelly.
Last edited 01/25/2013 2:33 PM by sjpIV
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:49 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Here are some more stats on Kelly in terms of the quality of opponents. | vs. FBS Winning | 6 | 172 | 109 | 63.4 | 1194 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 | 134.64 | 28.7 | 199.0 | | vs. FBS Non-Winning | 6 | 169 | 117 | 69.2 | 1599 | 9.5 | 17 | 2 | 179.53 | 28.2 | 266.5 |
In 2012 vs those FBS teams with winning records (IE the better teams) he still had decent stats when compared to previous ASU QB's. 2012 game by game stats Now, you can see how against some of the tougher teams he did not perform as well. So you are correct with that. So, I hope thats one of the areas he improves on this year which I believe he will. But, I think it a little unfair to say his poor play against quality teams is entirely his fault. You should look at other factors. What was the play calling that game? How many times was he pressured, sacked, knocked down? Did the defenses have better coverage? Did our WR's have the droppsies those games? it happened This is probably last post on this subject. Hopefully we will have some bigger and better news to discuss. I am not claiming Kelly should be handed a Heisman trophy right now. I am just saying he is off to a great start.
Last edited 01/25/2013 2:53 PM by sjpIV
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Posted: 01/25/2013 2:51 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
sjpIV wrote:
DevilSinceMisConception wrote:. But Dobbs looking around, has alot to do with ASU living the Danny White dream instead of the Colin Kaepernick reality. I don't know what you mean? You bring up a high school QB who is being recruited by ASU, an ex ASU QB from the 70's, and a current NFL QB for the 49ers. Help me make the connection between them? Then you point out Smith 2012's stats compared with a 2011 game.
Second, how long has Smith played in the NFL now? How many years of experience does he have (including college)? You can't compare his situation to a Kelly.
I think you may be missing my point. My point is this. Taylor Kelly was a Sophomore this year, without any playing time experience as a freshman. He put those numbers up with that lack of experience and the lack of quality WR's.
Does he have room to improve. Sure he does. But when compared to where Jake Plummer, Andrew Walter, and Brock were at his age, there is a chance at a bright future with him.
And if I recall, people were beginning to question Graham putting ME in games, because it seemed Kelly was on a roll and ME would come in and we would lose that momentum. I thought the game plan there towards the end of the season worked out. Kelly is the QB and played the game. It situations of short yardage or goal line, ME came in. It worked. Where as the beginning of the season it seemed like they were trying to give ME more snaps during the games.
Now I also want to be clear. I am not trying to diminish ME with this thread, but point out I think we have something good with Kelly.
The Danny White Dream vs Collin Kaepernick was a play on words. Danny White is Mormon and White, Colin Kapenick is a bi-racial adopted kid that only got a scholi as a QB from Nevada, because other schools wanted him to play tight end. Kelly is white and I think is Mormon, Eubank was not recruited as QB early on by many schools until Wahsington Offered him. That's the connection. Kelly is a nice kid. He has the respect of the team. He is very good and elusive. He is very well prepared and quick with his decision. I have no doubt he will be a great QB in a wealer conference. Maybe he will prove everyone wrong and next year play well against good teams like Wisconsin, Stanford, etc. But if I had to guess, just like he admitted he played hurt this year and that is why his long balls were bad, he'll be hurt next year again and we'll have a losing record if Graham sticks with him as his QB. We have a tougher schedule next year, our out of conference schedule may leed to injuries that impact the conference play. Hope I am wrong, but his play vs good Pac 12 teams stunk, and it is hard to think you can get blown out at home by Oregon and look so bad and then next year play great. We'll see come fall.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 3:00 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Ok, one more post.
The reality is its a good situation we are in, if we are discussing who is the better QB. I would rather have that discussion then we have no one and someone needs to step up.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 3:13 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
sjpIV wrote:
DevilSinceMisConception wrote:. But Dobbs looking around, has alot to do with ASU living the Danny White dream instead of the Colin Kaepernick reality. I don't know what you mean? You bring up a high school QB who is being recruited by ASU, an ex ASU QB from the 70's, and a current NFL QB for the 49ers. Help me make the connection between them? Then you point out Smith 2012's stats compared with a 2011 game.
Second, how long has Smith played in the NFL now? How many years of experience does he have (including college)? You can't compare his situation to a Kelly.
I think you may be missing my point. My point is this. Taylor Kelly was a Sophomore this year, without any playing time experience as a freshman. He put those numbers up with that lack of experience and the lack of quality WR's.
Does he have room to improve. Sure he does. But when compared to where Jake Plummer, Andrew Walter, and Brock were at his age, there is a chance at a bright future with him.
And if I recall, people were beginning to question Graham putting ME in games, because it seemed Kelly was on a roll and ME would come in and we would lose that momentum. I thought the game plan there towards the end of the season worked out. Kelly is the QB and played the game. It situations of short yardage or goal line, ME came in. It worked. Where as the beginning of the season it seemed like they were trying to give ME more snaps during the games.
Now I also want to be clear. I am not trying to diminish ME with this thread, but point out I think we have something good with Kelly.
sjpIV, Look who you are trying to reason with. Kind of a waste of time.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." ~ Aristotle ~
"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds you sow." ~ Robert Louis Stevenson ~
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Posted: 01/25/2013 3:16 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
sjpIV wrote:
What was the play calling that game? How many times was he pressured, sacked, knocked down? Did the defenses have better coverage? Did our WR's have the droppsies those games? it happened
This is probably last post on this subject. Hopefully we will have some bigger and better news to discuss. I am not claiming Kelly should be handed a Heisman trophy right now. I am just saying he is off to a great start. USC game, his three picks were on a wide open curl route to Coyle (no pressure), the second was on a screen pass (intentional pressure), and the third was some weird floater pass as he was falling out of bounds.
Follow me on Twitter @mister_mvp for as much news on ASU, AZ Cardinals, and local HS football as you can handle.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 3:42 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
I'm not down on Kelly and think he's a good QB.
But you have to compare the systems each QB played in.
Plummer, Walter, and Carpenter all played in pro style systems. This means that they are the focal point of the offense with 5 step drop-backs resulting in difficult downfield passes because they stay in the pocket.
Kelly on the other hand plays in a zone read option offense. Each play gives Kelly exactly what the system is called options based off of Kelly's reads. He reads the defensive end on the opposite side of the potential run. If the defensive end holds containment then he can hand the ball off to the running back. If the defensive end crashes on the RB then Kelly can take it himself. On passing plays he goes through similar options, the first one that is open Kelly is supposed to take.
Brock played in a very similar offense last year created by Mazzone but it still had more pro style characteristics then our current one.
I don't mean to make it seem that this is an "easy" system to run. It is equally as difficult as a pro style system, but it just relates directly to what type of QB you have. Walter and Carpenter were both drop-back passers with strong arms and slow legs. Kelly has a below average arm compared to the other two but is a talented runner which helps him keep defenses honest to put him in a more fair playing ground. Plummer is a bit of a hybrid where he has a combination of the wheels (escaping ability) and arm strength and I believe he would succeed in both systems.
The point of a zone read option system is to take pressure off the QB and make it more simple. Leading to inflated stats compared to a pro style where the QB has more to worry about, like Peyton Manning for example.
Its the reason why a Quarterback with a much weaker arm (Kelly) was almost able to break the single season passing touch down record held by a quarterback with a much stronger arm (Walter) in a season where Kelly had much less talented WR corps. Miles, Ross, Ozier, and Coyle compared to Derek Hagan, Zach Miller and Terry Richardson.
This type of offense didn't really exist much back when Walter, Carpenter, and Plummer played. Chip Kelly at Oregon with Dixon and Rich Rod at WVU with Pat White were the big innovators behind this that brought it to the next level.
And like I said, whichever type of offensive personnel you have is the type of system you typically run. But it's been proven that QB stats have typically been inflated in the read option offenses.
For example guys like Darron Thomas and Marcus Mariota who put up HUGE stats at Oregon wouldn't be nearly as successful in a pro style system like USC or Stanford.
While guys like Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck who put up HUGE stats at USC and Stanford wouldn't be nearly as successful in a read option system like Oregon.
Now placing them side by side are Thomas/Mariota even half the QB's that Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck are?
If you look purely off their statistics they are...
Sr. Palmer: 3942 passing yards, 33 TD, 10 INT Sr. Luck: 3517 passing yards, 37 TD, 10 INT Fr. Mariota: 2677 passing yards, 32 TD, 6 INT Jr. Thomas: 2761 passing yards, 33 TD, 7 INT
That's comparing two of the all time great NCAA QB's against two Oregon system QB's and they still put up similar stats.
Last edited 01/25/2013 4:13 PM by CDD413
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Posted: 01/25/2013 4:29 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
Tarantula wrote: Turn on USC, Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State. Abysmal. USC was a winnable game with the amount of turnovers we forced. If that second tipped screen pass against UA would have been intercepted like it should have been, we likely lose that game, as I believe we were trailing by 10(?) at that point. Not to mention he got Foster's head knocked off in the bowl game with that soft lob down the seam. That pass was high but Foster also could have protected himself and knocked the ball down, going for the catch and not seeing the defender is more on Foster than Kelly since Foster is closer to the guy trying to hit him. Also, look up all the Saguaro Players, see the ones at ASU, Utah, UCLA, USC. KoKo our starting Center is the only one so far to play in Pac 12. And DJ was knocked silly in his final high school game by kids playing at a Small School just running the ball. Pretty sure he will at some point give up football because of concussions.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 4:38 PM
Re: Faith in Kelly
DevilSinceMisConception wrote:
Tarantula wrote: Turn on USC, Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State. Abysmal. USC was a winnable game with the amount of turnovers we forced. If that second tipped screen pass against UA would have been intercepted like it should have been, we likely lose that game, as I believe we were trailing by 10(?) at that point. Not to mention he got Foster's head knocked off in the bowl game with that soft lob down the seam. That pass was high but Foster also could have protected himself and knocked the ball down, going for the catch and not seeing the defender is more on Foster than Kelly since Foster is closer to the guy trying to hit him.
Also, look up all the Saguaro Players, see the ones at ASU, Utah, UCLA, USC. KoKo our starting Center is the only one so far to play in Pac 12. And DJ was knocked silly in his final high school game by kids playing at a Small School just running the ball. Pretty sure he will at some point give up football because of concussions. Dial up the ESPN broadcast to hear Brian Griese's comments after that play if you truly believe that was Kelly's fault. Mind you.. Griese was a former quarterback. He talked for a good minute about how poor of a decision that was by Kelly. Rule #1 as a QB- NEVER NEVER NEVER leave your WR out to dry. And that is exactly what Kelly did. What do you mean Foster knows better where the defender is? Foster is worried about running his route and looking back for the ball. Kelly is the one with his eyes downfield. Kelly sees the defender. Foster does not.
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Posted: 01/25/2013 5:19 PM
RE: Faith in Kelly
CDD413 wrote: I'm not down on Kelly and think he's a good QB.
But you have to compare the systems each QB played in. You also need to look at stats like yards per attempt (Kelly leads all) and yards per completion (Kelly trails all) for comparison sakes. TK benefitted from having a safety outlet more often than not. He makes the short throws very well but anything in the 12+ yard range starts to become more suspect. The good news is he can absolutely improve those medium and deep throws before next year We need him to do so and we need our WR corp to step up where they did not last season.
"When we won, we shook their hands and walked off the field like we've been there before. I'm really proud of the team, of the coaching staff. I'm proud to be a Sun Devil." B Magee
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