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Bowl Picture - Week 11

Posted: 11/11/2012 8:22 AM

Bowl Picture - Week 11 


A few games went our way, and a few teams keep their bowl hopes alive. It really is going to be down to the wire on whether or not all eligible Sun Belt teams get a game.

ACC - 8 slot
Four teams are in. Miami is likely in. VA Tech, GA Tech, and Wake Forest all still have a chance, but looking at their schedules, it's probably unlikely that any of them make it. Maryland and Virginia are pretty much toast. Worst case scenario is they are one short, best case 3 short.
Open - Military, Independence

Big 12 - 8 slots
They'll have 8 teams on the dot. With a BCS at large bid, they'll be one short.
Open - Heart of Dallas

Big East - 6 slots
Three teams are in, and that could potentially be it. Syracuse looks good after an upset over Louisville. After that, Pitt, UConn, and USF all have 6 slots and USF/Pitt play each other. They have a max of 6 eligible, but likely 4. I'll say that one of Pitt/UConn/USF sneaks in.
Open - Beef O' Brady's

Big Ten - 8 slots
Lots of help here this week. Five are in, with four teams still alive. Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, and Iowa all face uphill climbs to eligibility. One of Indiana/Purdue is definitely out as they play each other. Two probably get in. 
Open - Little Caesar's

CUSA - 6 slots
Three teams are in. SMU is likely. Loser of Marshall/Houston next week is out. Rice is likely out. They could very well leave two slots open, but I think the winner of Marshall/Houston sneaks in.
Open - Military

Independents
Navy and BYU make their respective bowl games. Notre Dame gets a BCS at large. Army/CUSA leaves the Military slot open as mentioned above.

MAC - 3 slots
Six teams are eligible with a chance for one more. Miami/CMU play next week, and the loser is out. They will have either 3 or 4 extra teams.
Open - none

Mountain West - 5 slots
Nothing crazy here. They'll hit 5 on the button unless Air Force finds a way to lose to Hawaii.
Open - none

Pac 12 - 7 slots
Seven teams are in with Arizona State and Utah fighting for eligibility. Arizona State should beat Wazzu to get in, but Utah needs to win out against Arizona and Colorado. They get an at large bid to BCS, so they'll hit 8 on the money. If Utah makes it in, they have an extra team.
Open - none

SEC - 9 slots
Eight teams are in. Vandy's comeback win over Ole Miss was huge, as Ole Miss now has to beat Miss State or LSU to get eligible. Missouri has the easiest road, while Tennessee must beat Vandy to stay alive. Arkansas is likely out. I think one of Ole Miss/Tennessee makes it, making them even with an extra BCS slot. If Ole Miss / Tennessee doesn't they leave one open.
Open - none

Sun Belt - 2 slots
Four teams are in with a shot at six. Louisiana is certainly in and Troy has a chance.
Open - none

WAC - 1 slot
LA Tech, Utah State, and San Jose State are in. That's it.
Open - none

Extra teams
MAC - 4
SBC - 3 maybe 4
WAC - 2
PAC 12 - maybe 1

Open slots
Independence
Military  (x2)
Heart of Dallas
Beef O' Brady's 
Little Caesar's

There are plenty of scenarios where more slots could be open, or teams could fill them up. I think that as of right now, six slots will be open for 9 extra teams. LA Tech takes the Heart of Dallas spot, and the MAC has a backup agreement for Beef O Brady's, so they take that. That leaves Independence, Military (x2), and Little Caesar's for 3 Sun Belt teams, 3 MAC teams, and 1 WAC team. The Military takes one from MAC and SBC, and Little Caesar's takes SBC since it's already a MAC tie in. That leaves one SBC team, 2 MAC teams, and 1 WAC team fighting for Independence, which will take ULM. We're likely headed to Military in this scenario as Arkansas State and Louisiana would take the New Orleans/Go Daddy slots.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 8:41 AM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


Below is a cheering guide. We need all of these teams to lose in order to help our bowl chances. I've bolded teams that are on the fringe or likely out and would have a big impact to our at large chances. Teams that are likely in, like Missouri, I've listed but not bolded.

SEC
Missouri
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Arkansas

Big 12
West VA
Iowa State
Baylor

Big 10
Michigan State
Indiana
Iowa
Purdue

Pac 12
Arizona State
Utah

ACC
Miami
VA Tech
GA Tech
Wake Forest
Maryland
Virginia

Big East
Syracuse
Pitt
South Florida
Connecticut

Mountain West
Air Force

Sun Belt
Louisiana
Troy
North Texas

CUSA
SMU
Houston
Marshall
Rice

MAC
Miami OH
Central Michigan

WAC/Indy - none


If NONE of the bolded teams made it, we'd have 65 bowl eligible teams at the end of the year. That gives you an idea of the breathing room we have at the moment for some of these fringe teams to slip in. You'll probably see two (of the bolded teams) more each from the Big 10 and ACC, and probably one more from CUSA. Then you start stretching it with another from the Big East and SEC. It's gonna be a close one, but I feel great about our chances right now.

The funny thing is that if GA Tech doesn't get eligible, we will have earned ourselves the Military bowl slot by keeping them out. If we got into a dogfight with another Belt team for one last slot, we'd better be bringing that up.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 9:24 AM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


This is a great thread with great research there. Thanks so much for this.

and now, my opinions... :-)

Since Troy beat Navy yesterday, the ASU game becomes crucial. If ASU wins, our game with Troy will be a showdown where they will be playing for their survival. It will be a major gut check game. If we win it, we send the home with nothing. I will be bringing a squad of people with me. Every middle fan needs to make that game. No excuses. It doesn't get any bigger than that for us right now.

Ark, Ole Miss and UT will probably not make it. Although I hate to say it, Vandy is playing pretty decent while I think UT just had their backs broken yesterday. Dooley is gone and they now know it. Mizzou getting in doesn't look good. They face Syracuse, who just upset UL and then they go up against A&M who just beat BAMA. All 4 question mark teams face huge odds of getting in.

I can't envision Ole Miss upsetting MSU or LSU. Arkansas also faces the same 2 teams in reverse order. They will be done as well.

In the CUSA, I think Houston, Marshall, and Rice won't get it. Marshall beats Houston but loses the next game to ECU. Houston is done. Rice gets beat by SMU.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 10:36 AM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


I'm fairly sure (from what I've heard) we'll be turning down an invite if we get one here at Miami.

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Posted: 11/11/2012 12:08 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


Here are the teams still fighting for a bowl spot and what they need to get to six wins:

Needs 1 more win

Missouri  - Syracuse, @ Texas A&M

Ole Miss - @ LSU, Miss St

Iowa St - @ Kansas, West Virginia

West Virginia – Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, Kansas

Michigan St – Northwestern, @ Minnesota

Arizona St – Washington St, @ Arizona

Miami – South Florida, @ Duke

GA Tech – Duke, @ Georgia

Wake Forest - @ Notre Dame, Vanderbilt

Syracuse - @ Missouri, @ Temple

Air Force – Hawaii, @ Fresno St

Louisiana – WKU, South Alabama, @ FAU

Troy – ASU, @ MT

SMU - @ Rice, Tulsa

 

Needs 2 more wins

Tennessee - @ Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Arkansas - @ Miss St, LSU

Baylor – Kansas St, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

Indiana - @ Penn St, @ Purdue

Purdue - @ Illinois, Indiana

Utah – Arizona, @ Colorado

VA Tech - @ Boston College, Virginia

Maryland – Florida St, @ North Carolina

Virginia – North Carolina, @ VA Tech

Pitt – Rutgers, @ South Florida

UCONN - @ Louisville, Cincinnati

North Texas - @ ULM, @ WKU

Houston - @ Marshall, Tulane

Marshall – Houston, @ ECU

Rice – SMU, @ UTEP

Miami OH - @ CMU, Ball St

Central Michigan – Miami (OH), @ UMASS

 

Needs 3 more wins

South Florida - @Miami, @Cincinnati, Pitt

Last edited 11/11/2012 12:10 PM by tyler90wm

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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:03 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


If we win out, surely one of NOLA or GoDaddy will take us right?

Us and stAte are pretty much the exact same distance from Mobile and they didn't travel dramatically better to the bowl than we did.

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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:06 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 



MTSUPiKapp wrote: If we win out, surely one of NOLA or GoDaddy will take us right?

Us and stAte are pretty much the exact same distance from Mobile and they didn't travel dramatically better to the bowl than we did.

Yes. I hope it's GoDaddy and I hope our Athletic Department sees the potential there to get some great things happening with returning to Mobile and bringing a bunch of fans for the basketball games. If I were the AD, I'd push for that one, if we get to that point.

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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:09 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


My projections IN RED for what it is worth?  Not worth much since Syracuse beat Louisville when I had picked UL.
tyler90wm wrote: Here are the teams still fighting for a bowl spot and what they need to get to six wins:

Needs 1 more win

Missouri  - Syracuse, @ Texas A&M-IN

Ole Miss - @ LSU, Miss St- OUT

Iowa St - @ Kansas, West Virginia-IN

West Virginia – Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, Kansas-IN

Michigan St – Northwestern, @ Minnesota-IN
Arizona St – Washington St, @ Arizona-IN

Miami – South Florida, @ Duke-IN

GA Tech – Duke, @ Georgia-OUT

Wake Forest - @ Notre Dame, Vanderbilt-OUT

Syracuse - @ Missouri, @ Temple-IN

Air Force – Hawaii, @ Fresno St-IN

Louisiana – WKU, South Alabama, @ FAU-IN

Troy – ASU, @ MT-OUT

SMU - @ Rice, Tulsa-IN

 

Needs 2 more wins

Tennessee - @ Vanderbilt, Kentucky-OUT

Arkansas - @ Miss St, LSU-OUT

Baylor – Kansas St, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St_OUT

Indiana - @ Penn St, @ PurdueOUT

Purdue - @ Illinois, Indiana-IN

Utah – Arizona, @ ColoradoOUT

VA Tech - @ Boston College, Virginia-IN

Maryland – Florida St, @ North Carolina-OUT

Virginia – North Carolina, @ VA TechOUT

Pitt – Rutgers, @ South FloridaOUT

UCONN - @ Louisville, CincinnatiOUT

North Texas - @ ULM, @ WKUOUT

Houston - @ Marshall, TulaneIN

Marshall – Houston, @ ECU-OUT

Rice – SMU, @ UTEP-OUT

Miami OH - @ CMU, Ball St_OUT

Central Michigan – Miami (OH), @ UMASS-OUT

 

Needs 3 more wins

South Florida - @Miami, @Cincinnati, Pitt-OUT

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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:11 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


I think there's a decent shot we go to GoDaddy. stAte will probably get a bowl somewhere else (Liberty if its open), and they played in Mobile last season, so they'll probably want a different team. I'd say there's a 90% chance we're in Mobile or DC. Who knows though, crazy things can happen, especially this bowl season. There could be alot of shuffling around MAC and SBC teams.

Last edited 11/11/2012 4:12 PM by MTowho

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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:13 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


ULL is going to New Orleans.  You can take that to the bank.  They will pass over #1 SBC for the 30,000 crowd of ULL. 
#1 will then go to GoDaddy unless it is set in one of the other bowls.  I an guessing MTSU is in Washington DC or Dallas.  WKU or ULM will get passed over.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:17 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


CBS Projections: http://www.cbssports.com/colle...wls/predictions


GoDaddy.com: ULM v Ohio
BBVA Compass: Troy v Toledo
Military: Louisiana v Arizona State
Little Caesars: WKU v Northern Illinois
New Orleans: Arkansas St v Kent State
Beef O Bradys: Middle Tenn v UCF

Wouldn't mind it a bit.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 4:28 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 



MTowho wrote: CBS Projections: http://www.cbssports.com/colle...wls/predictions


GoDaddy.com: ULM v Ohio
BBVA Compass: Troy v Toledo
Military: Louisiana v Arizona State
Little Caesars: WKU v Northern Illinois
New Orleans: Arkansas St v Kent State
Beef O Bradys: Middle Tenn v UCF

Wouldn't mind it a bit.
ESPN's are completely different. Brad Edwards has Middle in the GoDaddy.com Bowl against Toledo and Mark Schlabach puts the Blue Raiders in DC against Utah. 

For what it's worth, they both have Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl and Edwards puts Western Kentucky in Hawaii, which would be so bittersweet. Yay! We finally made it to a bowl. Oh, it'll cost $7,000 to get there.


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Posted: 11/11/2012 6:38 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


Doubt it. ULL needs more wins and just went there last year.

---------------------------------------------
--- blueraider1992 wrote:

ULL is going to New Orleans.  You can take that to the bank.  They will pass over #1 SBC for the 30,000 crowd of ULL. 
#1 will then go to GoDaddy unless it is set in one of the other bowls.  I an guessing MTSU is in Washington DC or Dallas.  WKU or ULM will get passed over.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 11/11/2012 7:19 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


Just another tidbit - if you use the realtimerpi rankings of every team to decide who will win the rest of the games this year, there will be only 69 teams available for 70 slots.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 1:38 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 



MTowho wrote: Just another tidbit - if you use the realtimerpi rankings of every team to decide who will win the rest of the games this year, there will be only 69 teams available for 70 slots.
I still think if we get to 9-3 and the SEC is short we end up in Memphis.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 1:46 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 



mtsig wrote:
MTowho wrote: Just another tidbit - if you use the realtimerpi rankings of every team to decide who will win the rest of the games this year, there will be only 69 teams available for 70 slots.
I still think if we get to 9-3 and the SEC is short we end up in Memphis.
Rumor is Liberty Bowl officials, who were in attendance, loved them some Red Wolves after Arkansas State's last home game, which drew something upwards of 30k.

Last edited 11/12/2012 1:47 PM by MTowho

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Posted: 11/12/2012 2:55 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


Arkansas State to Liberty and ULL to NOLA are no brainers, especially now that ULM is unlikely to capture even a share of the conference title.

Had ULM won the title, NOLA could have made the prudent decision to take them even if ULL would bring a few thousand more fans, because if NOLA doesn't take the champion this year, they'll be contractually obligated to take them next year. 

That's going to be the real bugaboo in this whole deal is what NOLA does, do they take ULL which will bring more fans than anyone else in the conference which will lock them in to taking the champion next year sight unseen, or do they go ahead and take the champion this year if they feel they'll bring a decent crowd?

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Posted: 11/12/2012 3:17 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


I have it on good authority from a reliable source the MT will not be in the liberty bowl regardless of how the season plays out
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Posted: 11/12/2012 4:18 PM

Re: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


PiKapp
I agree with you on ULL and ASU....  Brad said ULL was there last year so not this year..I disagree they showed the bowl folks in NOLA why you want them back! If you pack the house with 25,000 to 30,000 plus you are getting the nod every time.  ULM gets killed with how they travel with nobody following.

Our Troy game is going to be critical to have a big crowd with so much on the line. 
1- playing for SBC Championship outright with a win (on to ASU)
2- bowl placement
3- get the monkey off our back (troy)
4- Troy may be playing to get their 6th win if they lose to ASU this week
5- RESPECT!!!

Everyone needs to help "Pack the House"
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Posted: 11/12/2012 4:48 PM

RE: Bowl Picture - Week 11 


I dunno. Everytime we have a big crowd the team seems to blow it.
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