With the emergence of youngsters Lynn, Kelly, Rosenthal and Miller, what would you predict for next year's starting rotation?  To those four, add Garcia, Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Westbrook.  How do you see this working out?  I myself have a hard time seeing Westbrook in the mix (don't know anything about his contract, though).  And how big do we go with the checkbook in Lohse's case?

Just curious to hear others' thoughts on the topic.
peace
brosky

Westbrook was re-signed for 2013 (for $8.5M IIRC, I have no idea if it includes a NTC). Lohse will NOT be back in 2013 (although I would like to see the Cardinals making him a qualifing offer, but I doubt they will). Hope Garcia is fully recovered by ST. I like having all the options available for the rotation. Maybe they will rotate the youngesters between the rotation and the bullpen to limit their innings.

I think you pencil in:  Wainwright, Lynn, Westbrook

Then I think you expect only 1 of Carp and Garcia to be healthy (hopefully both).

The last spot goes to the best of Miller, Rosenthal, and Kelly in spring training competition.  Those that don't make it will be a welcomed addition to the bullpen.

If we have an abundance of good fortune and everyone is healthy and competing at a high level in spring training, then I would pursue a trade, preferably to upgrade the middle infield.  Garcia I would want to shop first, due to injury and guaranteed contract status (even though it's team friendly, it becomes very team unfriendly if he blows his shoulder out).

Westbrook gets $8.75 in 2013, with a $9.5 mutual option for 2014. This contract is an extension of his previous contract, which had included an $8.5 mutual option for 2013 and a full no trade clause.

The Cardinals don't pay that kind of money to a middle reliever, so he will be in the rotation if healthy. Later, when teams have starters going down, there is the possibility of a trade involving a buyout of his no trade clause.

IMO, at the time his contract was extended, less was known about how the young starters would pan out this early. Miller was still a question due to his issues earlier at Memphis. Carp was an unknown. Waino's post recovery effectivness was still in question due to inconsistency. A lot has changed since then.

This a big if, but what if Waino pitches the next year like he did this year.  Even with Carp's contract expiring the same year, we'd still have Kelly, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, and Rosenthal.  Would we still give Adam the big money he deserves, or do we let him walk?  (This is all assuming that we don't trade some of our surplus pitching in the offseason.)

Cochise22 wrote: This a big if, but what if Waino pitches the next year like he did this year.  Even with Carp's contract expiring the same year, we'd still have Kelly, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, and Rosenthal.  Would we still give Adam the big money he deserves, or do we let him walk?  (This is all assuming that we don't trade some of our surplus pitching in the offseason.)

Obviously I don't have anything to lean on, but I would think Wainwright offers significant value in terms of mentoring our young guys and that aspect in combination of his talent level is why I want him re-signed.  

I see him taking over the Carp role as the big game pitcher and the guy you look to as an example for preparation.  I want that leader and competitor at the top of the rotation and I would be willing to pay up for it even if his production next year is much like 2012.  If that is the case, hopefully the cost will be a little more team friendly.

Due to injury these things are most difficult to project. I know we have some fairly large dollars tied up to them in 2013, but I'd like to envision a rotation without Westbrook and Garcia in it. I think there's a strong liklihood that Wacha is going to make his grand appearance in a Cardinal uniform sometime around the 2013 All Star break. By next July, 5 of the 6 should be from this list:


Waino
Carp
Lynn
Rosenthal
Miller
Wacha

This thread reminds me of the Braves plight some 15, or so, years back when Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux were up for expensive contract negotiations and they, simultaneously, had some exciting young pitchers surfacing on their farm.  They, ultimately, opted to resign their big 3 which turned out to be fortunate.

I've got a bad feeling about Garcia.  His shoulder is issue #1, by a wide margin, and then his head is #2.  That stated, it wouldn't be the first time an MLB pitcher was in his late 20's or early 30's before getting his act together (Gibby and Lohse come to mind.).

Please point me to a profile of Wacha; I'd google it but don't have his first name.  Thanks in advance.

Brosky wrote: Please point me to a profile of Wacha; I'd google it but don't have his first name.  Thanks in advance.

His first name is Michael, but "Wacha Cardinals" should work just fine.

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--- Domeboys wrote:

Brosky wrote: Please point me to a profile of Wacha; I'd google it but don't have his first name.  Thanks in advance.

His first name is Michael, but "Wacha Cardinals" should work just fine.

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!
That works or simply Google " future multiple CY Young award winner".

I'd rather see the Cards use the money to lock up Wainwright long term (and/or improve the middle infield) than re-sign Lohse.

blingboy wrote: Westbrook gets $8.75 in 2013, with a $9.5 mutual option for 2014. This contract is an extension of his previous contract, which had included an $8.5 mutual option for 2013 and a full no trade clause.

The Cardinals don't pay that kind of money to a middle reliever, so he will be in the rotation if healthy. Later, when teams have starters going down, there is the possibility of a trade involving a buyout of his no trade clause.

IMO, at the time his contract was extended, less was known about how the young starters would pan out this early. Miller was still a question due to his issues earlier at Memphis. Carp was an unknown. Waino's post recovery effectivness was still in question due to inconsistency. A lot has changed since then.

Does Westbrook have a no trade clause with this contract?  I thought that was just conjecture.

PadsFS wrote:
Does Westbrook have a no trade clause with this contract?  I thought that was just conjecture.

Good point.  The previous contract, which included a mutual option at $8.5 for 2013 did have a no trade clause according to Cot's.  This new deal is termed 'an extension', but the 2013 salary has been increased to $8.75 in addition to adding on a 2014 mutual option.  So I guess the no trade clause could have been dropped for 2013.  Perhaps that is what the extra .25 was for.

This situation is NOTHING like that of the Braves trio of Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux. We could only dream of a bullpen of that caliber. Heck, so could anyone else for that matter.

MagnoliaCardFan wrote: This thread reminds me of the Braves plight some 15, or so, years back when Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux were up for expensive contract negotiations and they, simultaneously, had some exciting young pitchers surfacing on their farm.  They, ultimately, opted to resign their big 3 which turned out to be fortunate.

I started this thread with some questions but I do have an opinion of my own.  I'd like to see Lohse, Wainwright, and Carp atop next year's rotation, but that leaves the dilemma of how to deploy those four or five terrific young arms we are developing. I'd rather figure that out, though, than trying to depend on Garcia and Westbrook.  Of course I don't know what contractual headwinds may be involved.

dropping a seed....

In the spirit of this thread....

3 of 5 starters will be waino, westbrook, carp (pencil them in the starting five out of ST), I think Garcia will be on the mend and Lohse not resigned

2 of 5 from Lynne, Kelly, Rosenthal, Miller, Boggs (lynne in the lead for the first spot)


But, I feel like the question is really about how we can most productively use the excess of pitching we have because we seem to have a stockpile already with guys like Wacha and Martinez lurking.  A trade should be looked at...not to derail the thread at all, and hopefully in the ven diagram of threads this fits; Jurickson Profar for Shelby Miller heads up comes to mind.  (7 and 6 on MiLB prospect list, respectively).  The Rangers want pitching help in a big way, and are stocked at MI. This is one example.  

The point is our excess pitching makes us a trade fit with a lot of teams i would imagine...i hope they kick the tires this winter with teams who have cheap MI talent and i think doing so helps address our surplus' and needs.



EDIT: put this idea in the trade thread as i just noticed it was being touched on there.

I don't mind the idea of a trade to fill some holes with all-star talent ... MI is an obvious one at the big league level... but keep in mind we've got some guys at AA who could surprise and make the team as well (wong and garcia).

my point with this is... don't trade just to trade... if you're getting an all-star that's one thing, but still... miller and rosenthal and martinez have awful high ceilings to just randomly throw out trade ideas.

what's that mean?  yeah, kick the tires... you never know... but it's not like our MI cupboard is bare here.

eaststl wrote: dropping a seed....

In the spirit of this thread....

3 of 5 starters will be waino, westbrook, carp (pencil them in the starting five out of ST), I think Garcia will be on the mend and Lohse not resigned

2 of 5 from Lynne, Kelly, Rosenthal, Miller, Boggs (lynne in the lead for the first spot)


But, I feel like the question is really about how we can most productively use the excess of pitching we have because we seem to have a stockpile already with guys like Wacha and Martinez lurking.  A trade should be looked at...not to derail the thread at all, and hopefully in the ven diagram of threads this fits; Jurickson Profar for Shelby Miller heads up comes to mind.  (7 and 6 on MiLB prospect list, respectively).  The Rangers want pitching help in a big way, and are stocked at MI. This is one example.  

The point is our excess pitching makes us a trade fit with a lot of teams i would imagine...i hope they kick the tires this winter with teams who have cheap MI talent and i think doing so helps address our surplus' and needs.

EDIT: put this idea in the trade thread as i just noticed it was being touched on there.

I made the same suggestion some time back (Miller for Profar) and it was shot down.  I made the same point about their prospect standing too.  Ultimately, I don't think Texas would risk a possible downgrade (from Profar to Miller) unless Profar had an undesireable character issue.

However, if Miller and Kozma have strong showings in spring training, Texas might do a 2 for 1.  But then I doubt that StL would do it.  Bottom line... I don't see Profar becoming a Cardinal any time soon.  But I wouldn't mind if I was wrong.

To stay on the thread topic a little bit, I would like to see the Cardinals offer Lohse a qualifying contract... and I wouldn't mind if he accepted.

I am afraid that Garcia will miss a big chunk of the 2013 season... if not the whole season.