DMENS wrote: We CRUSH Latos. That trend should continue. Meanwhile, the Reds offense is sputtering.

crdswmn wrote:
I'm wary of making predictions based on past performance against a certain pitcher.  The Cardinals have had success against Latos, but that doesn't mean they will every time.  The Reds offense has cooled off, but they are motivated by their desire to knock us out of the playoffs, and our offense is not consistent.  Anything can happen and I will be nervous about the outcome.

DMENS wrote:

crdswmn wrote:
I'm wary of making predictions based on past performance against a certain pitcher.  The Cardinals have had success against Latos, but that doesn't mean they will every time.  The Reds offense has cooled off, but they are motivated by their desire to knock us out of the playoffs, and our offense is not consistent.  Anything can happen and I will be nervous about the outcome.

But you are more apt to make a prediction based on an abstract concept of the Reds being motivated to beat their rival? I'm not guaranteeing a victory or anything, just pointing out that Latos has a bad track record against the Cardinals.

It's strange how we cower at the thought of Bud Norris because of his ability to pitch so well against us, then when we have a favorable matchup, discount the same sort of history as if it doesn't matter. It works both ways. And that's not a comment directed at you specifically, just a thought on the mental gymnastics people use to temper their own expectations for the hometown team.

crdswmn wrote:
I don't buy into the Bud Norris thing either.  And yes, I think sometimes players  up their play a notch or two with the right motivation.  How do you explain the  Cubs' ability to lose 100 games, but play us like it's the World Series?  And they do it consistently.

RatsBuddy wrote: Whats the weather like in St. Louis, whats the forecast for the game tonight?

Rat

DMENS wrote:

crdswmn wrote:
I don't buy into the Bud Norris thing either.  And yes, I think sometimes players  up their play a notch or two with the right motivation.  How do you explain the  Cubs' ability to lose 100 games, but play us like it's the World Series?  And they do it consistently.

Do you think we've hit Latos so well before because he wasn't motivated then? Is he now so much more motivated that he will be able to distance himself from a 1-4 record / 10.24 ERA? Maybe he has a good day and we have a bad one, but it isn't far fetched to like our odds.

Also, it might seem like the Cubs play us as if it were the World Series, but over the last four years we have gone 36-27 against them. So that motivation hasn't exactly churned out a glorious track record. Even though the human element of motivation does play a significant role, I'll still take matchup over motivation any day.

As bad as the Cubs have been in the last 4 years, 27 losses to them to me is a significant amount----way more than talent should have dictated.

And I don't think motivation plays into Latos' performance against us, good or bad.  I think that on any given day, factors such as better pitching mechanics and external factors such as weather and even umpiring can create a situation where a pitcher can defy his past record.   Are the chances high that the Cardinals will have continued success against Latos?  Sure.  Is it a given?  Heck no.

crdswmn wrote:

DMENS wrote:

crdswmn wrote:
I don't buy into the Bud Norris thing either.  And yes, I think sometimes players  up their play a notch or two with the right motivation.  How do you explain the  Cubs' ability to lose 100 games, but play us like it's the World Series?  And they do it consistently.

Do you think we've hit Latos so well before because he wasn't motivated then? Is he now so much more motivated that he will be able to distance himself from a 1-4 record / 10.24 ERA? Maybe he has a good day and we have a bad one, but it isn't far fetched to like our odds.

Also, it might seem like the Cubs play us as if it were the World Series, but over the last four years we have gone 36-27 against them. So that motivation hasn't exactly churned out a glorious track record. Even though the human element of motivation does play a significant role, I'll still take matchup over motivation any day.

As bad as the Cubs have been in the last 4 years, 27 losses to them to me is a significant amount----way more than talent should have dictated.

And I don't think motivation plays into Latos' performance against us, good or bad.  I think that on any given day, factors such as better pitching mechanics and external factors such as weather and even umpiring can create a situation where a pitcher can defy his past record.   Are the chances high that the Cardinals will have continued success against Latos?  Sure.  Is it a given?  Heck no.

bucknutjake wrote: This is the clincher.

cardinalnationhouston wrote:

bucknutjake wrote: This is the clincher.

Umm, four word thread?

crdswmn wrote:

DMENS wrote: We CRUSH Latos. That trend should continue. Meanwhile, the Reds offense is sputtering.

I'm wary of making predictions based on past performance against a certain pitcher.  The Cardinals have had success against Latos, but that doesn't mean they will every time.  The Reds offense has cooled off, but they are motivated by their desire to knock us out of the playoffs, and our offense is not consistent.  Anything can happen and I will be nervous about the outcome.

cardinalnationhouston wrote: How fitting is it that Carpenter is starting the potential clincher? He was in this position last year and we all know what happened. This is our guy right here even though he is just getting back. I am calling this one 5-2 for St.Louis with Holliday getting the big knock.