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Pete Kozma apology thread
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Posted: 9/30/2012 4:51 PM
Pete Kozma apology thread
I admit it. I am one of the guys that gave up on him. I did a mock up for a prospect list in preparation for our community voting. I didn't even put Kozma on the list...which went up to 50.
But now, wow. He has become one of the more exciting position players.
We all have heard since his run that his minor league stats just did not point to what he is doing now. But apparently there is one. He led Memphis in RBI's. With a bad batting average to do that, that tells me he was very clutch down there. And he has definitely been clutch for the big league team since given the starting position too.
Thank you Pete and I hope you'll accept my apologies for doubting you. Hope you get many many more to think the same thing with continued good play.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 5:01 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
I'm a huge Kozma fan!
Thank you seniors for your hard work and dedication. Champions in our minds, and champions in our hearts.
12-0
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Posted: 9/30/2012 5:01 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Let's just hope he's not a flash in the pan. It would be very nice if he turned out, like Placido Polanco before him, one of those who's better in the majors than he was in the minors - but guys like that are not very common at all.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 5:34 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
I never would have expected so much from him. Still kind of expect him to come back to earth, but want to enjoy as long as he's carrying the Cards on his shoulders...And hope to be proven wrong for a long, long time.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 5:36 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Gagliano wrote: I never would have expected so much from him. Still kind of expect him to come back to earth, but want to enjoy as long as he's carrying the Cards on his shoulders...And hope to be proven wrong for a long, long time. +1 he's always had talent... he's definitely picking the right time to put a lot of it together. |
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Posted: 9/30/2012 8:50 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
This is fun seeing Kozma play well. I also admit that I've never been a big fan of his, and it's not even his fault. I've always been down on him because we could have had Procello with that pick and so I've taken my frustration out on Pete. Now I really like the kid.
Not only is it good to see him play well at the big league level, but I like the fact that Matheny put him out there. This is exactly what I thought the club should have done with Tyler Greene down the stretch in 2010, although they would have played him at third base. Instead we went with Felipe Lopez, who got so bad defensively that we went out and got Pedro Feliz, who could not hit at all.
I think had Tony still been at the helm, for all the good things he did, we would have gone out and gotten a guy like Cesar Izturis for the stretch run and Pete would have never seen the field.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 9:08 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Koz is making the scout who argued for his selection look good. IIRC, the scout was swayed by his exceptional performance in the state playoffs where he felt that Pete rose to the occasion as a leader as opposed to it being a random performance.
I'm with Mike in that I blame him, fairly/unfairly for blocking the selection of Porcello. IF......we do indeed make the playoffs and do well, even bring home the 12th gold ring, that would be a sweet irony for Koz. And us!
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Posted: 9/30/2012 11:08 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Porcello is 9-12 with a 4.68 ERA now. Career wise he is 47-42 with a 4.57 ERA. Hardly numbers to pay the megabucks he was asking for.
Kozma improved his OPS almost 100 points at Memphis in 2012. He definitely looked more comfortable than in 2011. I'm still amazed that they had Jackson playing shortstop and Kozma at 2nd base. Sounds like Matheny and Pop Warner were on a different page.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 11:35 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
SoonerinNC wrote: ...Kozma improved his OPS almost 100 points at Memphis in 2012... I'm still amazed that they had Jackson playing shortstop and Kozma at 2nd base. I will start by saying I am pleasantly surprised by Kozma's results as a major leaguer to date. However... On your first point, his OPS improved 76 points from 2011 when his OPS was so bad it was 91 points lower than the second-to-worst qualifier in the entire 16-team PCL. This season, he was only third from the bottom of the league, with Bryan Anderson moving into the PCL OPS cellar this year.  On your second point, when were you first amazed by that? Your words seem to imply you saw this ahead of time.
Last edited 9/30/2012 11:43 PM by Domeboys
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Posted: 9/30/2012 11:46 PM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
I'm happy for the team that Kozma is playing well. However, I will not get excited by Kozma until he can show he can sustain this level of play or close to it for a significant period of time. One month is not nearly long enough. His history in the minor leagues leads me to believe that he will regress eventually. I am ALWAYS wary of small sample size surges.
If he manages to sustain it, then I will be very happy. I just have my doubts.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 12:13 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Domeboys wrote:
SoonerinNC wrote: ...Kozma improved his OPS almost 100 points at Memphis in 2012... I'm still amazed that they had Jackson playing shortstop and Kozma at 2nd base. I will start by saying I am pleasantly surprised by Kozma's results as a major leaguer to date. However...
On your first point, his OPS improved 76 points from 2011 when his OPS was so bad it was 91 points lower than the second-to-worst qualifier in the entire 16-team PCL. This season, he was only third from the bottom of the league, with Bryan Anderson moving into the PCL OPS cellar this year.
On your second point, when were you first amazed by that? Your words seem to imply you saw this ahead of time. Yea, he still hit .223 over 948 plate appearances in AAA... in a hitters league no less (albeit Memphis's ballpark isn't the hitters haven of some others in that league). We're still talking about a player who's highest OPS in a minor league season is .702, who has OPS'd above .650 once in the last four years. And that holds a career .652 OPS in 2,752 plate appearances in the minor leagues. I am enjoying his production and this team would likely be looking up at the Dodgers without the play of Kozma in September. But, I'm not going to get carried away about projecting him as even a MLB utility player going forward until he has a sustained stretch of more than a couple weeks. I'd still prefer Jackson going forward than Kozma and it isn't close. Also numbers in September usually scare me. I believe there have been multiple articles done about reading too much information into September statistics in baseball, specifically with call ups.
Last edited 10/1/2012 12:16 AM by Cardsfan914
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Posted: 10/1/2012 6:55 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Cardsfan914 wrote:
Domeboys wrote:
SoonerinNC wrote: ...Kozma improved his OPS almost 100 points at Memphis in 2012.... I will start by saying I am pleasantly surprised by Kozma's results as a major leaguer to date. However.... Yea, he still hit .223 over 948 plate appearances in AAA... in a hitters league no less (albeit Memphis's ballpark isn't the hitters haven of some others in that league).
We're still talking about a player who's highest OPS in a minor league season is .702, who has OPS'd above .650 once in the last four years. And that holds a career .652 OPS in 2,752 plate appearances in the minor leagues.
I am enjoying his production and this team would likely be looking up at the Dodgers without the play of Kozma in September. But, I'm not going to get carried away about projecting him as even a MLB utility player going forward until he has a sustained stretch of more than a couple weeks. I'd still prefer Jackson going forward than Kozma and it isn't close.
Also numbers in September usually scare me. I believe there have been multiple articles done about reading too much information into September statistics in baseball, specifically with call ups. All of this is true. BUT, he's been performing in pressure situations--as opposed to a mop-up role--when some of our higher profile players have not. IMO, his late season heroics have earned him a long look in spring, if nothing else. W/o his clutch performance, our wildcard slot is iffy. Maybe he's a baseball version of John Havlicek.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 7:19 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
The day he was drafted was pretty ugly on this board. Not many Kozma fans.
I'm very happy that he's doing well but am waiting for more sustained success over a far longer period.
Tough times don't last long but tough people do - Darryl Kile |
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Posted: 10/1/2012 9:55 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
crdswmn wrote: His history in the minor leagues leads me to believe that he will regress eventually. I am ALWAYS wary of small sample size surges. There is nothing, yet, to convince me that Kozma can come even close to maintaining this pace either. I too am going to rely on the larger sample size. Six seasons in the minors tells me that this isn't normal and a regression is likely. After 2,752 minor league PA's there really hasn't been anything to get excited about. Others have documented that quite well around here before. What adds to my skepticism is that his BAbip this year is very high -- .417. Now the sample size for that number is small (71 PA's) but it is still unsustainable. His success has been rooted in crushing line drives and keeping those hits away from the outfielders. However, players will have surges and slumps and the fact that Kozma is surging now is huge. If he can continue to be a threat at the plate then I feel much better about our chances this post-season, assuming we get there. He is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and on top of it all he is succeeding in high leverage situations. I do have confidence that he can keep this up for a while longer, just not enough to anoint him the future of the infield.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 10:17 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
DMENS wrote:
crdswmn wrote: His history in the minor leagues leads me to believe that he will regress eventually. I am ALWAYS wary of small sample size surges. There is nothing, yet, to convince me that Kozma can come even close to maintaining this pace either. I too am going to rely on the larger sample size. Six seasons in the minors tells me that this isn't normal and a regression is likely.
After 2,752 minor league PA's there really hasn't been anything to get excited about. Others have documented that quite well around here before. What adds to my skepticism is that his BAbip this year is very high -- .417. Now the sample size for that number is small (71 PA's) but it is still unsustainable. His success has been rooted in crushing line drives and keeping those hits away from the outfielders.
However, players will have surges and slumps and the fact that Kozma is surging now is huge. If he can continue to be a threat at the plate then I feel much better about our chances this post-season, assuming we get there. He is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and on top of it all he is succeeding in high leverage situations. I do have confidence that he can keep this up for a while longer, just not enough to anoint him the future of the infield.
And then you have Waino....
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Posted: 10/1/2012 10:33 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
I just want to make sure you guys realize that your saying these things about Kozma based off 73 plate appearances. I'm gonna wager that his 1000+ PAs in the minors of below average offensive output is more indicative of his future in the big leagues. The guy is probably a .650 OPS major leaguer with a solid glove, this thread is ridiculous.
Last edited 10/1/2012 10:36 AM by stlcards5129
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:12 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
i always liked Kozma...and whiel i had to temper how much i liked him because of his minors stats...i always thought he deserved a shot...Jackson was the seemingly obvious choice when Furcal went down ...but i did think we should have given Kozma a shot at the SS position...if for no other reason that it woudl have given the organization indication whether he was worth retaining.... by never giving him a shot it would seem a waste to cut him loose...
I was/am a big Tyler Greene fan too...timing is always everything though...i think Tyler would be at SS had we not moved him...
Some seem to not want to get excited about Kozma until he shows he can keep it up.... to that i say why? I dont think anyone is anointing him the savior of the team or that Furcal wont get his job back next year becauseo f Kozma...
we need to be excited for this kid right now...maybe he is only a flash in the pan...but why waste our time waiting for him to fail instead of supporting with everything we have as long as it lasts (even if that is for a long time)
Descalso showed his flash in the pan late two years ago (maybe 3) and people were not thinking he could sustain his relevance either...but he has...
Kozma right now is the most exciting player on the team...and well worthy of the praise he gets right now.. he is not mid round lucky story...he is a 1st rd HS draft pick who seemed to have most of the tools to be a steady to good player....
some guys get bored (not that this is good) in the minors especially when they cant seem to ever get it going ...perhaps this little bit of a shot he is getting is the extra bit of focus and drive he needed to lock his tools in...
to me he seems a very viable solution as a backup to Furcal next year..and i think the battle between him and Ryan Jackson in Spring Training will be fun to watch because both are talented...throw Garcia in there too why not!
Shoudl we look for a veteran SS just in case? I think so....but if Koz keeps hitting like he is and being a steady glove...i think the money may shift to other needs in the offseason...
Kid is earning each start he gets...and he knows it...i like that attitude...plus it seems theo ther players are just as amped as the crowd to see him doing well... that is always an uplifting thing i think for the clubhouse when you have kids out of "nowhere" turning it on in the spotlight... will the opposition find Kozma's holes sooner or later? that remains to be seen...and how he reacts to that (and his first MLB slump which will happen at some point) will be the true tests for Pete
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:23 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
thejager wrote:
Some seem to not want to get excited about Kozma until he shows he can keep it up.... to that i say why? I dont think anyone is anointing him the savior of the team or that Furcal wont get his job back next year becauseo f Kozma... I think we are all very excited about what Kozma is doing and in no way intend to rain on his parade. What he is doing for the team right now is invaluable and I'm personally having a blast watching him play baseball. The skepticism is towards his ability to keep it going for an extended time.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:28 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
who cares about that right now? that seems like an offseason discussion...no reason to be skeptical right now...none at all.. just reasons to be excited.. DMENS wrote:
thejager wrote:
Some seem to not want to get excited about Kozma until he shows he can keep it up.... to that i say why? I dont think anyone is anointing him the savior of the team or that Furcal wont get his job back next year becauseo f Kozma... I think we are all very excited about what Kozma is doing and in no way intend to rain on his parade. What he is doing for the team right now is invaluable and I'm personally having a blast watching him play baseball. The skepticism is towards his ability to keep it going for an extended time. |
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:37 AM
Re: Pete Kozma apology thread
Jager
I'm happy the guy is hitting like he has. His hot streak right now might be one of the biggest reasons the Cards win the 2nd WC spot. Anyone who puts up a .900+ OPS over a handful of games is going to help the team win a few games. There's just too many things pointing to this output not lasting. His ISO right now is about 100 points higher than his career average, his BABIP is a ridiculous high at .408, his BA is 100 points higher than his career norm and his OPS is 300 points higher than his career average. I'm happy for the guy, but this is not going to last. It has no chance of lasting. Kozma could just as easily have a slash line of .112/.212/.222 over his next 73 PAs.
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