Posted: 9/16/2012 1:44 PM
– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four yearsor
– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five yearsImportant Dates- November 20, 2012: Deadline to protect a player from the Rule 5 draft- December 6, 2012: Rule 5 draft takes placeWe had 5 openings for players we could protect from the Rule 5 Draft. We got there by:- Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman declaring for free agency- Jorge Rondon added to the 40 man roster- Kyle McClellan released- Outrighting Brian Anderson, Adam Reifer, and Steven Hill off of the 40 man roster- Brandon Dickson releasedCandidates protected by adding to the 40 man roster:Michael BlazekEric FornataroKeith ButlerKevin Siegrist Its further complicated due to the AAA and AA portions. The same guys are eligible for it too, except they need to be at a lower level than the portion they are being drafted in. For example, to be protected from the AA portion, be positioned on the AA roster. To be protected from the AAA portion, be on the AAA roster. The only protection from the MLB portion is to be placed on the 40 man roster.Candidates vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft: (* by the ones we might worry about)Nick AdditionIldemaro Vargas * (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)Deryk Hooker (could be lost in AAA portion)Jesus Montero (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)Kevin Thomas *Scott Gorgen *Jermaine CurtisYunier CastilloAnthony Ferrara * (could be lost in AAA portion)Scott McGregor (could be lost in AAA portion)Xavier ScruggsChris SwaugerRobert Stock * (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)Chris Corrigan (could be lost in AAA portion)Richard Castillo (could be lost in AAA portion)Jose Almarante (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)Nick GreenwoodAudry Perez *The next yr (2013 Rule 5 Draft) is where it will really get tricky, due to the following being eligible:Anthony GarciaOscar TavarasStarlin RodriquezGreg GarciaJohn GastTyler LyonsColin WalshHector HernandezBoone WhitingAiden Lucas (studly reliever at A+)Iden Nazario (studly lefty reliever at A+)Mike O'NeillDean Kiekhefer (good lefty reliever at A+)Adam MelkerJustin Wright (good lefty reliever at AA)Cody StanleyJordan SwagertySeth BlairMinor League Free Agents of note (in minors for 6 yrs, could be signed by anyone if not added to the 40 man)Jorge Rondon (re-signed and added to the 40-man)Tommy Pham (re-signed but not added to 40-man)Eugenio VelezRainel Rosario (could be lost in a minor league portion)Luis De La Cruz (could be lost in a minor league portion)Jose GarciaBrian Anderson (Outrighted off 40 man roster)Roberto EspinozaRay KrumlLance ZawadzkiCedric HunterKleininger TeranLou MontanezJamie Romak (re-signed but not added to the 40-man)Matt YoungReleasedNick Derba(I may have overlooked someone who probably isn't someone to worry about anyway, or mixed up a guy when he was eligible)Notice how many of the guys eligible for Rule 5 2013 will be in AFL for 2012.To make it worse, anyone who is a candidate for the 2012 rule 5 draft but not protected then and still in the system who have a breakout year in 2013 is again eligible for the 2013 rule 5 draft again and in need of protection if we are to keep them. There are a few others for 2013, but those are the most notable. To make further room for them, whoever is left from Eduardo Sanchez, Barrett Browning and Victor Marte will be in play to be removed next year. You'll also have the following projected to be coming off 40 man: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal, Maikel Cleto (if 2013 don't work out), Skip Schumaker, Fernando Salas (if his 2013 is like 2012) and Shane Robinson.The point is to think about who we might have to add in the off season, and who will have to be removed for them. As well as using that same basis to think about the 2013 Rule 5 draft since there will be so many quality guys there.And thats before worrying about when Kolton Wong, Michael Wacha or anyone else who drafted more recently and when they might be ready (who many project for 2014) and how they fit into the roster and around all the guys mentioned for protection from rule 5 and the players already on the roster.We really have a loaded farm system
Last edited 11/20/2012 9:18 PM by cardzZilla
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:03 PM
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:10 PM
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:33 PM
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:56 PM
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:58 PM
CariocaCardinal wrote: A for Effort CardzZilla but I think you are making it too confusing by worrying about the AAA and AA portions of the draft. If the Cards want to keep a player they seldom have trouble from exposing him to those portions of the draft. I see it as the Cards having 1 free slot (Lohse and Berkman's spots opening up and then minus one with McClellen coming off the 60 day DL.That spot goes to Fornataro.I then look at who else I would want to keep and how many spots I need to open up to keep them.I think the Cards will definitely want to protect GorgenSeigrestThat would require 2 more spots which I would obtain by releasing Gaub and non-tendering McClellenBeyond that, I think they might think about Butler or Blazek but I dont expect them to choose to protect them. And would be surprised if they were taken in the rule 5 draft as well.Note: Pham, Jose Garcia, and Rondon are all I believe minor league FA's if not placed on the 40 man roster. They would not be subject to the rule 5 draft. If the Cards want any of them I would hope they would sign them as minor league FA's and not put them on the 40 man roster. Eventually the Cards will probably have to open up 1 or 2 more spots on the 40 man roster if they hope to sign any FA's but there are plenty of candidates. Summary: very few spots open on the 40 man roster but also very few guys not on the roster that need protecting.
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:00 AM
Last edited 9/17/2012 12:05 AM by cardzZilla
Posted: 9/17/2012 6:58 AM
Posted: 9/18/2012 4:23 PM
Last edited 9/18/2012 4:26 PM by UncleDenny
Posted: 9/18/2012 4:37 PM
Last edited 9/18/2012 4:42 PM by UncleDenny
Posted: 9/18/2012 8:18 PM
Jmodene1 wrote: IIRC, don't the guys on the 60-day DL go back on the 40-man roster once the regular season is over? They may have to non-tender McClellan pretty quickly if that's true.What they may do with him is release him and then quickly re-sign him to a minor-league deal with an invitation to ST, with language in the contract that gives him, say, $1.1MM if he is healthy and earns a spot on the ML roster next spring, essentially a split minor/major contract if that would allow them to keep him without using a spot on the 40-man. The reason I suggest that they don't want to lose him outright, but neither do they want to sink another $2.5MM in him by allowing him to go to arbitration. His agent is Steve Conte, and not Scott Boras, so he might be willing to do something like that to stay with the Cards, since I doubt he's going to get a straight major-league offer from anyone else.
Tough times don't last long but tough people do -
Posted: 9/18/2012 10:38 PM
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:17 PM
cardzZilla wrote: easy remedy. release gaub or browning, then you have as much time as you want to figure out mcclellan.
Posted: 9/19/2012 10:35 PM
Posted: 9/20/2012 11:06 AM
Last edited 9/20/2012 11:08 AM by SoonerinNC
Posted: 9/20/2012 4:32 PM
Posted: 9/20/2012 7:25 PM
Posted: 9/20/2012 7:45 PM
UncleDenny wrote: The most likely to be protected, in my opinion, are Eric Fornataro, Keith Butler, Kevin Siegrist, Starlin Rodriguez and Audry Perez. Keep in mind, Jeff Luhnow is on the prowl and would jump on one of these if left unprotected. By good authority, I was told that several teams were interested in including Perez in a deal with the Cards because of shortage of catchers in their system. A pitcher in the Cardinal system also indicated to me that Perez was the best catcher in the organization other than Derba and Tartamella (who don't hit enough to warrant consideration). Also, Bryan Anderson is out of options, and Cards will need someone at Memphis to call up in case of injuries. The others I mentioned are just too good to risk losing. There are a few organizations that could keep a player on their 25 man since they aren't likely to contend (such as the Cubs or Astros).
Posted: 9/20/2012 9:52 PM
Posted: 9/22/2012 4:35 PM
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