This November/December, we'll have to make decisions on a few guys on whether to add them to the 40 man roster or not due to the Rule 5 draft.

Here is the general rule on who is eligible to be selected:

– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years
or

– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years

Important Dates
- November 20, 2012: Deadline to protect a player from the Rule 5 draft
- December 6, 2012: Rule 5 draft takes place

We had 5 openings for players we could protect from the Rule 5 Draft. We got there by:
- Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman declaring for free agency
- Jorge Rondon added to the 40 man roster
- Kyle McClellan released
- Outrighting Brian Anderson, Adam Reifer, and Steven Hill off of the 40 man roster
- Brandon Dickson released

Candidates protected by adding to the 40 man roster:
Michael Blazek
Eric Fornataro
Keith Butler
Kevin Siegrist

Its further complicated due to the AAA and AA portions. The same guys are eligible for it too, except they need to be at a lower level than the portion they are being drafted in. For example, to be protected from the AA portion, be positioned on the AA roster. To be protected from the AAA portion, be on the AAA roster. The only protection from the MLB portion is to be placed on the 40 man roster.

Candidates vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft: (* by the ones we might worry about)
Nick Addition
Ildemaro Vargas * (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)
Deryk Hooker (could be lost in AAA portion)
Jesus Montero (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)
Kevin Thomas *
Scott Gorgen *
Jermaine Curtis
Yunier Castillo
Anthony Ferrara * (could be lost in AAA portion)
Scott McGregor (could be lost in AAA portion)
Xavier Scruggs
Chris Swauger
Robert Stock * (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)
Chris Corrigan (could be lost in AAA portion)
Richard Castillo (could be lost in AAA portion)
Jose Almarante (could be lost in AA or AAA portion)
Nick Greenwood
Audry Perez *

The next yr (2013 Rule 5 Draft) is where it will really get tricky, due to the following being eligible:
Anthony Garcia
Oscar Tavaras
Starlin Rodriquez
Greg Garcia
John Gast
Tyler Lyons
Colin Walsh
Hector Hernandez
Boone Whiting
Aiden Lucas (studly reliever at A+)
Iden Nazario (studly lefty reliever at A+)
Mike O'Neill
Dean Kiekhefer (good lefty reliever at A+)
Adam Melker
Justin Wright (good lefty reliever at AA)
Cody Stanley
Jordan Swagerty
Seth Blair

Minor League Free Agents of note (in minors for 6 yrs, could be signed by anyone if not added to the 40 man)
Jorge Rondon (re-signed and added to the 40-man)
Tommy Pham (re-signed but not added to 40-man)
Eugenio Velez
Rainel Rosario (could be lost in a minor league portion)
Luis De La Cruz (could be lost in a minor league portion)
Jose Garcia
Brian Anderson (Outrighted off 40 man roster)
Roberto Espinoza
Ray Kruml
Lance Zawadzki
Cedric Hunter
Kleininger Teran
Lou Montanez
Jamie Romak (re-signed but not added to the 40-man)
Matt Young

Released
Nick Derba

(I may have overlooked someone who probably isn't someone to worry about anyway, or mixed up a guy when he was eligible)

Notice how many of the guys eligible for Rule 5 2013 will be in AFL for 2012.

To make it worse, anyone who is a candidate for the 2012 rule 5 draft but not protected then and still in the system who have a breakout year in 2013 is again eligible for the 2013 rule 5 draft again and in need of protection if we are to keep them. There are a few others for 2013, but those are the most notable.

To make further room for them, whoever is left from Eduardo Sanchez, Barrett Browning and Victor Marte will be in play to be removed next year. You'll also have the following projected to be coming off 40 man: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal, Maikel Cleto (if 2013 don't work out), Skip Schumaker, Fernando Salas (if his 2013 is like 2012) and Shane Robinson.

The point is to think about who we might have to add in the off season, and who will have to be removed for them. As well as using that same basis to think about the 2013 Rule 5 draft since there will be so many quality guys there.

And thats before worrying about when Kolton Wong, Michael Wacha or anyone else who drafted more recently and when they might be ready (who many project for 2014) and how they fit into the roster and around all the guys mentioned for protection from rule 5 and the players already on the roster.

We really have a loaded farm system

I am more concerned with Gorgen than Thomas

I think Ildemaro Vargas is also eligible for rule 5 which is not a worry but next year I think he would be a 6 year free agent and is far too far away to make the Cardinal roster at the end of the season next year.

Bibona has been released by the Cardinals.

adding Ildemaro Vargas to list.

i think gorgon will be fine if on AAA roster. then whoever will have to add him to mlb active 25 and he'll have to remain there all yr. don't like the odds of that. but if he's on AA roster, mark it down for him to be picked in AAA portion.

A for Effort CardzZilla but I think you are making it too confusing by worrying about the AAA and AA portions of the draft.   If the Cards want to keep a player they seldom have trouble from exposing him to those portions of the draft.  

I see it as the Cards having 1 free slot (Lohse and Berkman's spots opening up and then minus one with McClellen coming off the 60 day DL.

That spot goes to Fornataro.

I then look at who else I would want to keep and how many spots I need to open up to keep them.

I think the Cards will definitely want to protect
Gorgen
Seigrest

That would require 2 more spots which I would obtain by releasing Gaub and non-tendering McClellen

Beyond that, I think they might think about Butler or Blazek but I dont expect them to choose to protect them.   And would be surprised if they were taken in the rule 5 draft as well.

Note:  Pham, Jose Garcia, and Rondon are all I believe minor league FA's if not placed on the 40 man roster.  They would not be subject to the rule 5 draft.  If the Cards want any of them I would hope they would sign them as minor league FA's and not put them on the 40 man roster.  


Eventually the Cards will probably have to open up 1 or 2 more spots on the 40 man roster if they hope to sign any FA's but there are plenty of candidates.  

Summary: very few spots open on the 40 man roster but also very few guys not on the roster that need protecting.

You will also need to add Richard Castillo to that list of potential Rule 5 draftees in the 2012 off season. Castillo still harnesses that swing and miss curve but only sits in the mid-to-high 80s he likely won't be protected.

CariocaCardinal wrote: A for Effort CardzZilla but I think you are making it too confusing by worrying about the AAA and AA portions of the draft.   If the Cards want to keep a player they seldom have trouble from exposing him to those portions of the draft.  

I see it as the Cards having 1 free slot (Lohse and Berkman's spots opening up and then minus one with McClellen coming off the 60 day DL.

That spot goes to Fornataro.

I then look at who else I would want to keep and how many spots I need to open up to keep them.

I think the Cards will definitely want to protect
Gorgen
Seigrest

That would require 2 more spots which I would obtain by releasing Gaub and non-tendering McClellen

Beyond that, I think they might think about Butler or Blazek but I dont expect them to choose to protect them.   And would be surprised if they were taken in the rule 5 draft as well.

Note:  Pham, Jose Garcia, and Rondon are all I believe minor league FA's if not placed on the 40 man roster.  They would not be subject to the rule 5 draft.  If the Cards want any of them I would hope they would sign them as minor league FA's and not put them on the 40 man roster.  


Eventually the Cards will probably have to open up 1 or 2 more spots on the 40 man roster if they hope to sign any FA's but there are plenty of candidates.  

Summary: very few spots open on the 40 man roster but also very few guys not on the roster that need protecting.

It will be interesting to see if the organization trys to re-up Pham's minor league contract he's still has a lot of upside but is one of those prospects that can't stay healthy.

Edited first post for clarifications sake and to adjust the 2012 candidate list.

The reason why mentioned the the minor league portions was for the sake of completism.

Regarding Carioca mentioning McClellan being non tendered, that will not open a slot for someone due to his being on the 60 day DL makes it so he does not count against the 40 man roster at all currently. However, if the front office decides to have him return, then that is one less spot for rule 5 candidate selections.

I think we'll have 4 openings coming from Gaub, Lohse, Berkman, Marte and Browning being removed, but you cannot count 1 of them due to the impending placement of Chris Carpenter back onto the 40 man roster from the 60 day DL.

I edited my picks above for who I think will be protected to Butler, Fornataro and Siegrist. What they do with the final opening is hard to say. Maybe keep one of the guys eligible to be removed? Or add another guy from the 2012 list (people marked with a * probably best bets)? Or open a 2013 guy to win it in spring training? (I do like the idea of Lyons or Gast being given a shot to win the 2nd Left reliever opening) Or a free agent?

Btw, I really dont know how minor league free agency works.

IIRC, don't the guys on the 60-day DL go back on the 40-man roster once the regular season is over?  They may have to non-tender McClellan pretty quickly if that's true.

What they may do with him is release him and then quickly re-sign him to a minor-league deal with an invitation to ST, with language in the contract that gives him, say, $1.1MM if he is healthy and earns a spot on the ML roster next spring, essentially a split minor/major contract if that would allow them to keep him without using a spot on the 40-man. 

The reason I suggest that they don't want to lose him outright, but neither do they want to sink another $2.5MM in him by allowing him to go to arbitration.  His agent is Steve Conte, and not Scott Boras, so he might be willing to do something like that to stay with the Cards, since I doubt he's going to get a straight major-league offer from anyone else.

Rule 5 Eligibles are:
Additon
Todd
Greenwood
Derba
Swauger
Butler
Hooker
A. Perez
Tartamella
Scruggs
McGregor
Richard Castillo
Siegrist
Gorgen
Delgado
Fornataro
K. Thomas
Blazek
Curtis
Kruml
Corrigan
Ferrara
Russell
Almarante
Jon Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
Swinson
Ahmady
Villanueva
Stock
Luis Mateo
Virgil Hill
Pasen
Y. Castillo
Montero
Vargas
Roberto Reyes

6 yr. free agents usually don't factor in to Rule 5 eligibility because it would be foolish for a team to draft a guy and then have to keep them on the 25 man roster all season when they could just sign them to a minor league deal and invite them to spring training.
Our 6 yr. free agents are: Espinoza (wasn't active all yr.)
Rondon
Peterson
Velez
Jose Garcia
Hunter
Montanez
Matt Young (the old one)
Pham
Romak
Luis DeLaCruz
Rosario
David Medina (invited to Instr. L. so wonder if he has been re-signed)
Juan Castillo (not sure as he was signed in July of 06 but didn't play until 07)

Jmodene1 wrote: IIRC, don't the guys on the 60-day DL go back on the 40-man roster once the regular season is over?  They may have to non-tender McClellan pretty quickly if that's true.

What they may do with him is release him and then quickly re-sign him to a minor-league deal with an invitation to ST, with language in the contract that gives him, say, $1.1MM if he is healthy and earns a spot on the ML roster next spring, essentially a split minor/major contract if that would allow them to keep him without using a spot on the 40-man. 

The reason I suggest that they don't want to lose him outright, but neither do they want to sink another $2.5MM in him by allowing him to go to arbitration.  His agent is Steve Conte, and not Scott Boras, so he might be willing to do something like that to stay with the Cards, since I doubt he's going to get a straight major-league offer from anyone else.

Yep.

easy remedy. release gaub or browning, then you have as much time as you want to figure out mcclellan.

cardzZilla wrote: easy remedy. release gaub or browning, then you have as much time as you want to figure out mcclellan.

They'll likely do that anyway, but as I say, releasing McClellan and signing him to a minor-league contract keeps him around all winter.  Waiting until December to non-tender him means someone else gets cut, and the longer we wait on getting him re-signed, the greater the risk someone else gives him a minor/major contract like I suggested above.

nice finds uncledenny. i named most of them in the 1st post, but not all. i missed alot due to my main resource was looking at draft results on the cardinal official site i currently link to in my sig.

Don't see much in the major league phase of Rule V to be concerned about but we may be clobbered in the minor league phase. They don't have to keep the minor league draftees at the same level, so they could pick up a guy at AAA or AA and send them out to A ball without losing them.

The only 6 year free agents I would like to retain are Rondon and Pham.

Also hate to give up the catchers Castillo and De la Cruz. Catchers often take quite a bit of time to develop and both had a good 2012.

The most likely to be protected, in my opinion, are Eric Fornataro, Keith Butler, Kevin Siegrist, Starlin Rodriguez and Audry Perez. Keep in mind, Jeff Luhnow is on the prowl and would jump on one of these if left unprotected. By good authority, I was told that several teams were interested in including Perez in a deal with the Cards because of shortage of catchers in their system. A pitcher in the Cardinal system also indicated to me that Perez was the best catcher in the organization other than Derba and Tartamella (who don't hit enough to warrant consideration). Also, Bryan Anderson is out of options, and Cards will need someone at Memphis to call up in case of injuries. The others I mentioned are just too good to risk losing. There are a few organizations that could keep a player on their 25 man since they aren't likely to contend (such as the Cubs or Astros).

i dont think starlin is eligible until next yr. he only been in baseball 4 yrs.

UncleDenny wrote: The most likely to be protected, in my opinion, are Eric Fornataro, Keith Butler, Kevin Siegrist, Starlin Rodriguez and Audry Perez. Keep in mind, Jeff Luhnow is on the prowl and would jump on one of these if left unprotected. By good authority, I was told that several teams were interested in including Perez in a deal with the Cards because of shortage of catchers in their system. A pitcher in the Cardinal system also indicated to me that Perez was the best catcher in the organization other than Derba and Tartamella (who don't hit enough to warrant consideration). Also, Bryan Anderson is out of options, and Cards will need someone at Memphis to call up in case of injuries. The others I mentioned are just too good to risk losing. There are a few organizations that could keep a player on their 25 man since they aren't likely to contend (such as the Cubs or Astros).

I still hear raves from scouts out of Perez's defense behind the plate as well.

Starlin Rodriguez was signed at age 19, so he is eligible after 4 yrs.

i'm hoping there something in the rules we don't know that will keep starlin off the list.

btw, something i forgot about w/ mclellan. right at end of yr, berkman removed from 40 man due to free agency. that will make up for whatever with kyle and will give us all the time in the world to make a decision on him.