Maybe this does not deserve its own thread, but since things are slow around here right now, i thought this would make for some great discussion. I am talking about Vladimir Guerrero in St Louis as opposed to Matt Holliday.

Looking at Vlad's last 2 healthy seasons (2007 and 2008), and comparing them to Matt Holliday's last 2 healthy seasons, 2008, 2009, we see that Vlad has been as good, probably slightly better offensively than Matt.

'

Matt Holliday -

2008

AB 539 - Avg - .321, HR - 25 RBI - 88 K - 104 OPS - .947

2009

AB 581 - Avg - .313, HR - 24 RBI - 109 K - 101 OPS - .909

Vlad Guerrero -

2007

AB 574 - Avg - .324, HR - 27 RBI - 125 K - 62 OPS - .950

2008

AB - 541 - Avg - .303, HR - 27 RBi - 91 K - 77 OPS - .886

2009 (post all star break numbers)

AB - 207 - Avg - .300, HR - 11 RBI - 29 K - 31 OPS - .844

The point here is that TLR is an expert at using veteran players of this age and caliber of player. If we sign Holliday, we will be stuck paying 18 million dollars a year at the end of this contract for a player probably performing less than what Vlad can right now. In 2010 will .MH out perform Vlad, probably. But 5+ years for MH, or 2-3 years for Vlad at a discounted rate, you have to take Vlad IMO.

MH Strikes out more than Vlad. MH seems to strike out at the most in-opportune times. Despite his great #s in St Louis, I can't remember how many times down the stretch he came up with RISP in a close game and took strike 3 and just flopped. It happened in the playoffs too. MH seems to already be declining at age 30. When Vlad was 30 years old he was putting up eye popping #s. .337 avg, 39 home runs, 111 RBI....those are Pujols like #s. Would anyone be dissapointed if in 2010, Pujols hits .337 with 39 HRs?

Word is that Vlad can't play the OF anymore.   If he could I'd consider him at the right price - since he can't it makes the point mute.

Seriously, Phil?  Vlad?  His career is about 1 injury from being over.  He already is pretty much only a DH.

And since when is Holliday declining?  His STL OPS was higher than his career year in 2007.  Throw out Oakland numbers.  That's the 2nd biggest pitchers park in the league to San Diego, and he was adapting to a new league with new pitchers.  Yes, he was terrible in 3 NLDS games, but that doesn't cancel out what he brings to the team for the other 162 games.

Vlad played two games in right filed in 2009; the last one was on July 7 when he hurt his knee fielding a routine base hit to right field and went on the DL for four weeks.

His baserunning looked absolutely painful after he returned in August.

No thanks!

This is sure to get me impailed by the Colby Crowd, but I would rather see STL acquire an exceptional fielding fleet-footed CF, move Rasmus to one of the corners if we believe that he can develop into a solid hitter, instead of spending millions on oft injured sluggers. Better OF defense would bolster our pitching staff. Too many balls landed on the grass this year.

I think discussing who would man left field in the event the Cards are unable to re-sign Matt Holliday would be a better use of this thread. 

Vlad vs. Holliday is no comparison.  Vlad vs. Craig at least has some discussion merit.  I think Jason Bay would be a good plan B.

rbdrdbrd wrote:

This is sure to get me impailed by the Colby Crowd, but I would rather see STL acquire an exceptional fielding fleet-footed CF, move Rasmus to one of the corners if we believe that he can develop into a solid hitter, instead of spending millions on oft injured sluggers. Better OF defense would bolster our pitching staff. Too many balls landed on the grass this year.

yeah, that's not going to happen.  Colby is our CF for the forseeable future.  Not sure why you don't think he'll be an above-average to great CF though.  I didn't think our OF defense was that bad this year.  Duncan was bad, but he's gone.  Ludwick's nothing special, but I don't think his defense hurt us.

To the guy who suggested Jason Bay, how much cheaper than Holliday do you think he'll go for?  I doubt it's that much.  Holliday is the better player, but Bay is an All-Star too.  If we are priced out of the Holliday market, then I doubt we'd be able to sign Bay.

Two Things

1) If Vlad has bad knees why would we want a guy who could only pinch hit for the price we would have to pay for him.

2) Colby is the center fielder of the future period. He has great range and a strong though inconsistent arm. That will improve with time. And he started to hit southpaws a little better late in the season

And I consider Ludwick a better than average right fielder. He makes the plays and has a strong arm. I'm not sure what you are looking for.

I expect the Red Sox to try hard to retain Bay. He is ideal for that park both offensively with the short left field and the small ground to cover is also to his advantage as he doesn't have a lot of range.

I'm not sure who we can get. Holliday will have to settle for a discount for us to land him and it doesn't look too promising. If we can solidify third base we could be looking at a platoon of Craig and yes Rick Ankiel. Ankiel's 09 will not project him into big money and I would not be suprised to see him sign a one year contract with the Cardinals. We will know soon.

Craig and even Joe Mather are the wild cards here. If Mather is healthy he could have a big comeback in 2010. He certainly didn't do any thing in 09 to indicate that he will be back in the majors but stranger things have happened and he is a very good athlete. Craig has done nothing but hammer the ball for three straight years and he is an adequate outfielder.

What about going out and getting carl crawford. If tampa does not exercise his option, he can be had for probably cheaper than Holliday. He is a pure hitter and he adds speed to the lineup. TLR could find all kinds a places in the lineup to use him. I would also like to see Ludwick traded to free money up to make a run at Lee. If this team is going to beat the phillies, you need multiple lefties in the rotation.  

desmetlax12 wrote:

I think discussing who would man left field in the event the Cards are unable to re-sign Matt Holliday would be a better use of this thread. 

 

Vlad vs. Holliday is no comparison.  Vlad vs. Craig at least has some discussion merit.  I think Jason Bay would be a good plan B.

I just think signing Holliday is as likely as the ol snowball in hell scenario, and with the limited number of real good OF's coming onto the free agent market this year Bay will probably be reeled back in by the BoSox. 

Everyone's next best case prediction is Allen Craig in left........This would quite possibly be doable if not for the fact that Mo has already made it fairly clear that David Freese will be given every opportunity to win the 3rd base position.  Either one of these moves individually would seem quite plausible to me but having watched TLR this past year, incorporating both of these rookies into Tony's lineup seems like a longshot.............I most definately could be wrong but it just seems like a reach.  And if it is a reach then Allen seems like the odd man out of that scenario because it appears Freese is in like Flynn. 

Vlad is on the downhill side of his career and looks pretty fragile to me so I can't fathom him being in the mix...........Abreu?....................maybe. 

I would LOVE Abreu.  He's a downgrade defensively, but he would be a perfect no. 2 hitter in front of Albert.  Career OBP > .400.  I'm tired of crappy OBP from no. 2 hitters.  Would Abreu move to LF or Ludwick to LF?  Both have plus arms but are a little lacking in the range (especially Abreu).

I'm all for Allen getting a spot on the big league roster in 2010, but with Glaus, Khalil, and maybe others coming off the books, we have some money to spend.  Maybe DeRosa accepts arbitration and we use DeRosa/Freese/Allen to start 3B/LF?

Many seam to be doubting are ability/willingness to sign everyone- Holliday, Pineiro, DeRosa, Smoltz, Ankiel, etc.  We have to spend some money on someone.

JDiesel5 wrote:

 

rbdrdbrd wrote:

...

...

 

To the guy who suggested Jason Bay, how much cheaper than Holliday do you think he'll go for?  I doubt it's that much.  Holliday is the better player, but Bay is an All-Star too.  If we are priced out of the Holliday market, then I doubt we'd be able to sign Bay.

Why is Holliday the better player?  Four separate polls ranked Bay higher.  Individually and Collectively.  By that, Bay would be the one to pursue or even overpay.

MagnoliaCardFan wrote: Why is Holliday the better player?  Four separate polls ranked Bay higher.  Individually and Collectively.  By that, Bay would be the one to pursue or even overpay.

I really am not sure how those poles work, but Holliday is generally considered a better a defender than Bay (by a pretty good margin), and Holliday had the better OPS+ this season (142 to 132) and career (133 to 132).  Holliday is a year and half younger than Bay,

So either those rankings aren't park adjusted, or they just rely on the wrong stats, but Holliday is the better player, no matter what those poles say.

And if MLB GM's are going by those rankings, then the MArlins should trade Hanley Ramirez to Tampa for Ben Zobrist, and Mo needs to ship off Wainwright for Javier Vasquez (and Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia are worse than both of them).

I don't think those rankings tell us much of anything, other than what kind of season they had last year (using the wrong stats, at that).  And that is not how one decides value of a player.

AustinCardinal wrote:

 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote: Why is Holliday the better player?  Four separate polls ranked Bay higher.  Individually and Collectively.  By that, Bay would be the one to pursue or even overpay.

 

 

I really am not sure how those poles work, but Holliday is generally considered a better a defender than Bay (by a pretty good margin), and Holliday had the better OPS+ this season (142 to 132) and career (133 to 132).  Holliday is a year and half younger than Bay,

 

....

 

Defensively, is Bay that bad?  Holliday hasn't shown that he's that good. 

While you are referencing OPS+, it''s an OPS vs an MLB norm for the respective park.  Holliday's numbers are overly indulgent on his Coors numbers (tOPS+) when compared to his former, Rockie team mates such as Todd Helton and 'Tulo or even his current team mate, Pujols.  i.e., I don't think OPS+ adequately considers the park factor for his career numbers in light of the fact he'll have minimal exposure at Coors going forward.  That's not to say he isn't a good player but it is to suggest that he's a lesser MLB'er than Bay. 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote:

 

1. Defensively, is Bay that bad?  Holliday hasn't shown that he's that good.

 

2. While you are referencing OPS+, it''s an OPS vs an MLB norm for the respective park.  Holliday's numbers are overly indulgent on his Coors numbers (tOPS+) when compared to his former, Rockie team mates such as Todd Helton and 'Tulo or even his current team mate, Pujols.  i.e., I don't think OPS+ adequately considers the park factor for his career numbers in light of the fact he'll have minimal exposure at Coors going forward.  That's not to say he isn't a good player but it is to suggest that he's a lesser MLB'er than Bay.

1. Defensive metrics and scouting reports say the same thing - Holliday is better.

2. I have no idea why you are talking about.  That paragraph was as clear as mud to me.  Holliday did not play for Colorado this season, and he significantly out OPS+'ed Bay.

MagnoliaCardFan wrote:

 

AustinCardinal wrote:

 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote: Why is Holliday the better player?  Four separate polls ranked Bay higher.  Individually and Collectively.  By that, Bay would be the one to pursue or even overpay.

 

 

I really am not sure how those poles work, but Holliday is generally considered a better a defender than Bay (by a pretty good margin), and Holliday had the better OPS+ this season (142 to 132) and career (133 to 132).  Holliday is a year and half younger than Bay,

 

....

 

Defensively, is Bay that bad?  Holliday hasn't shown that he's that good.

 

While you are referencing OPS+, it''s an OPS vs an MLB norm for the respective park.  Holliday's numbers are overly indulgent on his Coors numbers (tOPS+) when compared to his former, Rockie team mates such as Todd Helton and 'Tulo or even his current team mate, Pujols.  i.e., I don't think OPS+ adequately considers the park factor for his career numbers in light of the fact he'll have minimal exposure at Coors going forward.  That's not to say he isn't a good player but it is to suggest that he's a lesser MLB'er than Bay.

Boston's park is also an extreme offensive ballpark according to park factor, while St. Louis is a neutral ballpark and Oakland is one of the most extreme pitchers parks out there. So you could say this year that Holliday had the tougher go around.

I'd take either, but really the defensive edge makes Holliday worth more to me. And really I don't think he'll get significantly more than Bay. Maybe more years (because he's younger) and 3-4 million more a year (because he's better defensively, is faster, and has a better career line).

Even in an extreme pitchers park like Oakland (which is close to being about as extreme a pitchers park as Coors is to a hitters park), Holliday wasn't that bad (.286/.378/.454/.831).

AustinCardinal wrote:

 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote:

 

1. Defensively, is Bay that bad?  Holliday hasn't shown that he's that good.

 

2. While you are referencing OPS+, it''s an OPS vs an MLB norm for the respective park.  Holliday's numbers are overly indulgent on his Coors numbers (tOPS+) when compared to his former, Rockie team mates such as Todd Helton and 'Tulo or even his current team mate, Pujols.  i.e., I don't think OPS+ adequately considers the park factor for his career numbers in light of the fact he'll have minimal exposure at Coors going forward.  That's not to say he isn't a good player but it is to suggest that he's a lesser MLB'er than Bay.

 

 

1. Defensive metrics and scouting reports say the same thing - Holliday is better.

 

2. I have no idea why you are talking about.  That paragraph was as clear as mud to me.  Holliday did not play for Colorado this season, and he significantly out OPS+'ed Bay.

1.  I have no idea about scouting reports but the defensive metrics need to be srutinized considering what we've seen in St. Louis.

2.  tOPS+ is how he does vs his personal mean.  In Holliday's case, he's a Pujolian talent at Coors but more like Clark Kent at sea level or larger stadiums.  His AL numbers were, certainly, pretty good but they were less than Bay's if you go by OPS+.

Cardsfan914 wrote:

 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote:

 

AustinCardinal wrote:

 

MagnoliaCardFan wrote:

....

 

 

....

 

...

 

...

 

Even in an extreme pitchers park like Oakland (which is close to being about as extreme a pitchers park as Coors is to a hitters park), Holliday wasn't that bad (.286/.378/.454/.831).

In 2009, Oakland's pitcher rating was 97, St. Louis 98, and Coors 106.  During Holliday's near MVP run, Coors was rated at 109.