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2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread

Posted: 9/13/2009 9:07 PM

2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Since everyone wants to talk about starting this thread but no one wants to seem to do it, I'll start and volunteer to moderate this thread as I did last year.  Gagliano has agreed to assist me.   If anyone else wants to step forward and take the reigns they are more than welcome.  At a minimum, we could use a 3rd co-monitor as there may be some periods where I am traveling.

For those of you new to The Cardinal Nation let me explain how this works.   This is I believe the 4th year that the community has developed their own end of season prospect list.  It is a "top 50", well, because that's what we decided on at the time.  It is different than the "top 40' list that is put together by The Cardinal Nation staff in that this is done by a community vote.   The process is basically we start with choosing the number 1 prospect and after approximately a 48 hour period we will tabulate the votes, declare who the #1 prospect is and then repeat the process in choosing the subsequent prospects.   People are free (even encouraged) to cordially editorialize and try to influence others as this has the effect of educate all of us about the particular merits of a prospect.

The community has agreed that eligibility will include all players in the Cardinals system that have not either pitched more than 50 innings in the majors or has more than 130 major league at bats.

For discussion on eligibility and other misc thoughts related to the top 50 voting, go to this thread


I will keep a running tab of this list years list here.

#1 Jaime Garcia
#2 Shelby Miller
#3  David Freese
#4 Daryl Jones
#5 Lance Lynn
#6 Blake Hawksworth
#7 Allen Craig
#8 Eduardo Sanchez
#9 Daniel Descalso
#10 Adam Ottavino
#11 Robert Stock
#12 P.J. Walters
#13 Tyler Greene
#14 Jon Jay
#15 Bryan Anderson
#16 Mark Hamilton
#17Richard Castillo
#18 Casey Mulligen

#19 Nick Additon

#20 Pete Kozma

#21 Tyler Henley

#22 Arquimedes Nieto

#23 Scott Bittle

#24  Aaron Luna

#25  Fransisco Samuel

#26  Steven Hill

#27 Mike Parisi

#28 Scott Schneider

#29  Adron Chambers

#30 Thommy Pham

#31 Cutler

#32 Ferrara

#33 Robinson

#34 Salas

#35 Swinson

#36 De La Cruz

#37 Reifer

#38 Adams

#39 Solano

#40 Kopp

#41 Kelly

#42 Hearne

#43  Conely

#44 Smith

#45 Gorgen

#46 Jackson

#47 G. Hernandez

#48 Ryde Rodriguez

#49 Luis Mateo

#50 Niko Vasquez

 






For reference, this last years (2009) list

2009 Community Prospect List

#1 Colby Rasmus
#2 Chris Perez
#3 Brett Wallace
#4 Brian Anderson
#5 Daryl Jones
#6  Jess Todd
#7 Jaime Garcia
#8 David Freese
#9 Mitchell Boggs
#10 Jon Jay
#11 Adam Ottavino
#12 Jason Motte
#13 Pete Kozma
#14 Richard Castillo
#15 Clayton Mortensen
#16 Allen Craig
#17 Niko Vasquez
#18 P.J. Walters
#19 Josh Kinney
#20 Francisco Samuel
#21 Nick Additon
#22 Lance Lynn
#23 Adam Reifer
#24 Tyler Greene
#25  Roberto De La Cruz
#26  Tyler Herron
#27  Shaun Garceau
#28  Fernando Salas
#29  Deryk Hooker
#30 Steven Hill
#30A Mark Worrell  *originally voted number 30 but removed from the list due to being traded.
#31 Scott Gorgen
#32 Mark Diapoules
#33 Nick Stavinoha
#34 Jon Edwards
#35 Arquimedes Nieto
#36  Shane Robinson
#37  Luke Gregerson
#38 Domnit Bolivar
#39 Jarret Hoffpauir
#40 Donovan Solano
#41 Aaron Luna
#42 Tyler Henley
#43 Jose Martinez
#44 Gerardo Mannbel
#45 Shane Peterson
#46 Ryde Rodriguez
#47 Frederick Parejo
#48 Tony Cruz
#49 Blake Hawksworth
#50 Amaury Marti

Last edited 1/6/2010 7:47 PM by CariocaCardinal

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Posted: 9/13/2009 9:14 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I'll start off with my vote.

I had Miller #1 but based on Garcia's strong showing since coming back I have moved him to the top of the class.

#1 Jaime Garcia

Last edited 9/16/2009 6:19 AM by CariocaCardinal

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Posted: 9/13/2009 9:47 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Looks like I'm going to agree with Carioca for a bit.  I had Miller first, but Garcia's come back well.

Looking at last year's ranking, Garcia was 7th.  The only ones ahead of him then still remaining eligible are Anderson and Jones, both of whom slid a wee bit, I think.  Garcia was rated that low because of his elbow, but it sure looks like he's past it.  Garcia did turn 23 this July, but he's already been in the pros and I'd expect him to go there to stay before he turns 24.  A very good lefty starter would be a fine thing for our rotation....

So:

Garcia at 1 for me.
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Posted: 9/13/2009 10:10 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I'm one of those who think Garcia could become a solid #2 starter with his plus groundball rates and good K:IP ratio, but I think there's an outside shot that he eventually becomes a #1.  I see him right now as a #3 guy who could develop into a #2 relatively soon.  The fact that he's a lefty adds more points.

Do you go with a guy who's almost there as a major league starter or do you go with the kid with the higher ceiling?

I'm going to go with Shelby Miller as the #1 prospect.
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Posted: 9/14/2009 12:24 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Garcia
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Posted: 9/14/2009 1:27 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I have to go with Jaime Garcia for #1.  Garcia was successful throughout his time in the minor leagues.  He had a decent showing in his initial time in the majors.  Shelby Miller has a ton of potential, no one denies that, but I cannot rank him above a young, successful lefty starter with past success at many levels that is poised to make his impact on the major league rotation next year.

I need to see some professional success from Shelby before he supplants Garcia at #1.  Garcia took his potential and is about to realize it.  Hopefully I can say that about Shelby in next year's #1 voting.

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Posted: 9/14/2009 3:46 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I'm going to have to go with Garcia as well.  While I would love to rank Miller ahead of him for potential alone, which is basically all a prospect is, its hard to ignore Garcia's strong return from surgery.  He has the stuff to be a potential number 1 or 2 guy, and would probably put up 3 type numbers right now if he had the chance. 

Last edited 9/14/2009 3:49 AM by KetchamCards

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Posted: 9/14/2009 8:54 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I vote for Miller, because of the higher ceiling
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Posted: 9/14/2009 9:47 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I'm going with Garcia since he is still so very young, has already made the big leagues...had an injury and came back and contributed at a high level...

Miller is close but Garcia has already showed success and ability to be very good...#2 as his ceiling sounds right
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Posted: 9/14/2009 9:59 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Miller over Garcia by a hair.

It is closer for me, personally, than I thought it would be.

 




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Posted: 9/14/2009 11:55 AM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Garcia for me.

It seems like he hasn't lost a step in his return from surgery.  We don't know how long he pitched hurt so we really haven't seen what he can do at the major league level.  I think he could be at the top of the rotation which is where I expect Miller to end up at.  Since Garcia is already almost there, I gave him the nod.

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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:06 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I am having a VERY difficult time coming up with a #1 out of my personal top 5 which includes Mateo, Shebly Miller, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia, and.....well for the 5th spot I have like 3 or 4 others I'm thinking about, including Steven Hill (A darkhorse for top 5), De La Cruz, Daryl Jones, Allen Craig, David Freese, and Richard Castillo.

There are just so many propects that are clumped together that shouldn't be considered #1, but since we have taken a win now in 09 approach....there has to be a #1.

While a big part of me wants to vote for an up and comer like Lance Lynn, I'm just not sure the upside is there. On one hand he looks like an Adam Wainwright type horse on the mound. On the other hand, his stuff doesn't appear to be exceptional, so maybe he is a #3 in the future at best? Then there is Jaime Garcia, whose stuff is electric. But his past history is that of someone who has always hit a wall as a starting pitcher after just over 100 innings. My biggest question revolves around his stamina. Has he always had a weak ligament? Has the surgery completely fixed that issue? If so, can he pitch 160 big league innings in 2010 as our #5 starter, or even 160+ minor league innings with a-lot of success? Then again, Garcia looks good so far coming off of surgery. Miller has a HUGE ceiling, but with just what, 2 outtings this year, how can I rank him #1? Hill has a power bat from the C position, but he is not exactly young, and not exactly a defensive whiz. Allen Craig, same sort of scenario. Can he hit .270 with power in the big leagues? How much of Freese's "off" year are from injury? Was last year a career year for David? Then there is Richard Castillo. He has pitched  ALOT OF INNINGS for such a young age with mixed results. I still believe in his ceiling personally. I look at him as a top 5-10 prospect, but not #1. 

   MY VOTE FOR #1 Wagner Mateo. I know he will not win, but considering NO OTHER CANDIDATE even comes CLOSE to a traditional top prospect, I believe the upside involved with Mateo makes him our most prized prospect. If the organization could protect one prospect from each level, AAA, AA, A+, A etc etc, out of those prospects, which one is most exciting? Not factoring in WHEN a player will contribute in the big leagues, but just how much they might contribute in the big leagues, I think no other player, including Shelby Miller can touch Wagner Mateo. Just take a look at the difference in bonus between the two. Mateo got more money to sign if I remember correctly. Based on what the organization thinks of thier newest guys, it seems as though Mateo has the top opinion IMO.

Drive by......

Expect More!

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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:13 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I don't really want to debate anyone's personal choice for this ranking (at least not yet), but...

There is so much that I want to say about that post, Phil.

I am seriously having a hard time biting my tongue.




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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:23 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


In case my above post gets overlooked due to length (some people just won't read a post from me more than 5 lines long), I want to bring up my concern about Garcia with a little more detail.

Back in 2007, Garcia was shut down in late July with a tired arm and or elbow soreness. Here is a link , and another link to older insider articles from 2007 regarding Garcia. He was shut down after pitching just over 100 innings.

Then in 2008, we have a similar occurrence. He started the year in top form after resting all offseason. His numbers started going south midway thru the year, then he was called up. Upon his callup, his innings were curtailed, probably keeping him "healthy" for a longer period of time, but ultimately delaying the inevitable, surgery. In 2008, he was shut down after pitching about 120 innings. His high as a pro was in his debut year of 2006 when he pitched 77.2 innings at QC as a 19 year old and then 60 innings at PB, also as a 19 year old.

So again, in case it gets overlooked, I really want to know opinions about the potential ability of Garcia to get to say 160 innings in 2010, either in the big leagues or AAA. Is his future REALLY as a starter if this trend continues? Will this trend continue of not getting above 140 innings? Does the TJ surgery fix the problem? Had the TJ surgery been done in 2008, would Garcia have been our answer to Todd Wellemeyer way back in June? Thoughts?

Drive by......

Expect More!

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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:31 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 



easton714 wrote: I don't really want to debate anyone's personal choice for this ranking (at least not yet), but...

There is so much that I want to say about that post, Phil.

I am seriously having a hard time biting my tongue.


I will be the first to admit that my understanding of our current top prospects is pretty low. Biting of the tongue is not necessary. I have questions, many of you probably have answers. My biggest question is concerning Jaime Garcia. I would have voted him #1, but obviously I have a big question concerning his ability to be a big league starter. If I had the answer to that question I could safely vote him #1. My reasoning behind giving Mateo the #1 vote has more to do with my lack of knowledge and questions about the other prosects than it has to do with my belief that Mateo is truely (as a 16 year old having never played pro ball) our #1 prospect at this point. I vote him #1 for that reason ultimately. Being honest with myself, I just don't have enough knowledge to safely say that I believe Miller (although he would be 2nd or 3rd in this case) to say he is our #1 prospect. There isn't much difference to me between Mateo in Miller other than Mateo got paid a little more in terms of a bonus. If Wagner Mateo was in the MLB draft, I have to believe he would have went higher than Shelby Miller. Millers overall "raw-ness" and tendency to walk batters possibly lead to my vote of Mateo over him (as well as bonus).

Easton, maybe you could help me figure out things over here before people start taking shots at me. Maybe I am un-qualified to vote for this thing, or maybe I am just willing to admit my lack of knowledge concerning a bona fide #1 Cardinal prospect. The upper level guys just don't seem to have that WOW factor that Mateo, and MIller could have. Garcia could have it very easily, BUT, what about his past arm issues? What about his past issues of wearing down about halfway thru the season. Just look at his game logs from 2008. The first 6-8 weeks of the season in AAA he was dynamite. He really started falling off the next several weeks before his call up. You have to admit, if Garcia profiled (because of stamina issues) as a long reliever/spot starter, he wouldn't get votes for #1.

Drive by......

Expect More!

Last edited 9/14/2009 2:34 PM by philskill

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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:44 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


Ok, I'll be brief and comment on a few points.

First, you say Miller cannot be ranked number one after just two outings and then proceed to rank Mateo in that spot--a 16 year old who is not even allowed to suit up until next season.

Secondly, you compared signing bonuses, essentially, which is fine, but they were obtained under completely different scenarios.  Miller came out of the draft.  He could only sign with us.  His choices were to sign with us, go to college, or hold out and re-enter the draft next season.  Mateo was a free agent.  He could freely negotiate with every team.  There is no formula or anything, but I think spending $2.9MM on a draft pick says more about the player than spending $3.1MM on a free agent prospect.  Both say a lot, but one contract was negotiation without real leverage (other than going to college or JC) and the other was subject to the free market.

Thirdly, Steve Hill needs to prove he can catch before he gets even the slightest consideration as a top prospect.  If not, he is, maybe, Allen Craig--a utility player or platoon outfielder.


I am not going to go beyond that right now.  I am not intending to dispute specific players (at this point), but the reasoning(s) seem odd.

 




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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:53 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I can't really comment but from what i've seen I would go with Garcia.

also I would think that Tyler Greene would be in the top 10 at least

 Suggested U. of Illinois mascots

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Posted: 9/14/2009 2:57 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 



easton714 wrote:

Ok, I'll be brief and comment on a few points.

First, you say Miller cannot be ranked number one after just two outings and then proceed to rank Mateo in that spot--a 16 year old who is not even allowed to suit up until next season.

Thats a very good point about Miller/Mateo, one that I did not consider. I just assumed that most people assumed that Mateo was considered more valuable. I'm not sure what the percentages are for an 18 year old pitcher as opposed to a 16 year old position player, but I do know that the percentages for an 18 year old position player are better than an 18 year old pitcher making it. So that is another thing I took into consideration but failed to mention. If Mateo were the drafted player and miller the Dominican Free Agent, I would have still picked Mateo probably, despite the small difference in bonus simply because he is a position player. Something I am sure seems shaky as well, but in my case its the only thing I know of to determine who my personal #1 prospect is.

Secondly, you compared signing bonuses, essentially, which is fine, but they were obtained under completely different scenarios.  Miller came out of the draft.  He could only sign with us.  His choices were to sign with us, go to college, or hold out and re-enter the draft next season.  Mateo was a free agent.  He could freely negotiate with every team.  There is no formula or anything, but I think spending $2.9MM on a draft pick says more about the player than spending $3.1MM on a free agent prospect.  Both say a lot, but one contract was negotiation without real leverage (other than going to college or JC) and the other was subject to the free market.

Thirdly, Steve Hill needs to prove he can catch before he gets even the slightest consideration as a top prospect.  If not, he is, maybe, Allen Craig--a utility player or platoon outfielder.

THats another question that I have about our prospects. How highly should guys that are seemingly close to the big leagues, and currently showing plus power, should be ranked. Like Craig. He could fall anywhere from top 5 to top 20 to be honest. His season offensively has been terrific. But due to age and position concerns, will he ever even get a season in the big leagues in which he gets 500+ at bats, or will he go the JOhn Gall route? For every Garrett Jones type players there are probably 50 John Galls. Which one is Allen Craig/Steven Hill etc? Sometimes these type of players only get 1 shot in the bigleagues. Did Freese miss his 1 shot?


I am not going to go beyond that right now.  I am not intending to dispute specific players (at this point), but the reasoning(s) seem odd.

Thanx for in a sense helping me out with these points. I do prefer it when someone like you does this, as opposed to just ripping apart what I have to say. I'm not a know it all, especially about this stuff. I just take the information that I have and make the best choice, right or wrong.

Drive by......

Expect More!

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Posted: 9/14/2009 3:07 PM

Re: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 



philskill wrote:


Did Freese miss his 1 shot?



Nope.




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Posted: 9/14/2009 5:14 PM

RE: 2010 Community Top 50 Prospects Voting Thread 


I thought I would be in the minority with Garcia.
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