Free Trial Ad
Why Subscribe?
  • Player/Prospect News
  • Exclusive Insider Info
  • Members-Only Forums
  • Exclusive Videos
  • Subscribe Now!
InboxChat RoomChat Room (0 fans in chatroom)
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
  Page of 3  Next >

Luhnow

Posted: 7/15/2014 12:43 PM

Luhnow 


Has any one else been following this Brady Aiken saga in Houston?

The situation is really getting pretty interesting, as it appears the Astros have overspent their budget and are trying to avoid penalties by getting Aiken for much cheaper than the initial deal.

After reading some of the details around the situation and the comments from Aiken's adviser, things turning into a pretty bad situation in Houston. You have to wonder what Luhnow's status is in Houston at this point. If this situation continues and the team whiffs on a first-overall selection or they ended up getting a max penalty for going too far over slot, which appears to be a real possibility; that is going to view poorly on Luhnow and his staff. This is a just a month after their internal communications system was hacked and released for all the world to see.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 2:11 PM

Re: Luhnow 


For Houston, losing the top pick in this year's draft means they'll get a (potentially non-injured one) in net years draft (2nd overall)

Seems like a smart bet to me if the reports questioning his health are true.

The Nix deal hasn't been finalized yet so they won't go overslot, but would be losing the Nix pick as well which hurts.

Are Aiken (injured) and Nix worth next year's #2 pick?
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 2:13 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Also, their first rounder for next year is likely going to be around #2 so they'd be getting the #2 & #3 picks.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/15/2014 2:35 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Luenow isn't going anywhere. Houston is better than they were last year and will only get better.

 Suggested U. of Illinois mascots

Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 2:56 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Sounds like Houston is saying there is problems and the Kid and his doctors are saying there isn't any issues with his arm....

Is Houston trying to drive his price down by saying he is hurt?  If so doesn't look like he or his advisers are buying it at all.  Looks like Houston could be in some trouble because even the players association is looking into all of this since they said they have an agreed on deal, but won't let Nix sign it.  So will be interesting to see what happens,
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 2:58 PM

Re: Luhnow 



PadsFS wrote: For Houston, losing the top pick in this year's draft means they'll get a (potentially non-injured one) in net years draft (2nd overall)

Seems like a smart bet to me if the reports questioning his health are true.

The Nix deal hasn't been finalized yet so they won't go overslot, but would be losing the Nix pick as well which hurts.

Are Aiken (injured) and Nix worth next year's #2 pick?
Will be interesting to see if he actually is injured or not....Aiken's doc's say he is 100% fine in one thing I read...so...
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 3:29 PM

Re: Luhnow 


The involvement of the Players Association is what I find interesting. If they operated within the rules and didn't take part in any shady negotiation, then I'm sure they will be fine. But, if the Players Association gets involved and finds they came to a mutual agreement on a contract number, then Houston could be trouble. Losing Aiken and picking up the No. 2 pick for next year would be no problem, but it does seem suspicious that a $6.5 million offer dropped to $5 million and then to the base minimum required for the franchise to redeem a pick in 2015. Then there is the whole Nix deal, which was reportedly agreed on and then not agreed on. It's just an odd situation.

I'm not suggesting Luhnow be fired, but I would imagine if this turns out poorly for the Astros management may not be pleased. The team has been involved in some pretty bizarre and unique stories this season, neither of which reflect well on the Astros front office, but again this is all dependent on how this Aiken situation shakes out. If the Player's Association finds nothing and the team incurs no penalties then it's all water under the bridge.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/15/2014 4:16 PM

Re: Luhnow 


One of the things I found interesting in Rosenthal's article was the very careful parsing of words by both sides:

The core issue in the dispute is the condition of Aiken’s left arm.


The Astros, at a time of mounting concern about elbow injuries to pitchers, believe that Aiken’s physical revealed a “significant abnormality” in the area of his elbow ligament, according to major-league sources.


Close, however, said that Aiken not only is asymptomatic, but also touched 97 mph in his final start before the draft.



Now, "significant abnormality' doesn't necessarily mean he's injured.  It could mean he's deemed a higher risk for injury.

And Close isn't saying there's no 'abnormality', merely that his client is 'asymptomatic'.  In other words, isn't feeling any ouchies, etc.

To me, below is the crux of the article -

Baseball people often say that the arm of every pitcher has some imperfection that would be revealed by an MRI. The Astros, in the opinion of some agents and union officials, are using a perceived flaw with Aiken’s elbow as a way to manipulate the draft.




link

Tough times don't last long but tough people do -

Darryl Kile

Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 4:56 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Yeah, that is a slippery slope for Houston to take to justify their concerns. By that logic team's could claim a pitcher with a funky delivery is a higher risk of injury due to mechanical flaws and use it as negotiation leverage. That's not really playing fair with the players.

I'm also curious if Aiken could file suit against the Astros if he ends up without a contract? The Astros have made it quite public they have concerns about the healthy of his elbow, which would could hurt his earning power if he goes unsigned and becomes a free agent. This is just a weird situation. Guys have decided not to sign before, but it was a simple situation of the player's demands not being met. This is a situation where the franchise has tried to drive down his value by mentioning health information. That is another slippery slope that the Astros are navigating.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/15/2014 5:30 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Very interesting topic you bring up KylMss. Potentially there are a lot of issues going on here, not the least of which is as you point out, how does this reflect on Luhnow's character and leadership.

Since Luhnow left an impression on the Cardinals during his tenure there, we have sort of a legacy interest in his career.

I would think this is definitely a situation that could end up being settled in a court of law, or at least law suits filed resulting in settlements reached before they get to court. If that's the case, it will not reflect well on Luhnow.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 5:50 PM

Re: Luhnow 


There's no rule that you have to sign a draft pick to an at- slot deal.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/15/2014 6:14 PM

Re: Luhnow 


As I stated earlier, plenty of picks have failed to sign due their contract demands not being met. This is different, because Houston has made it public they have concerns about the health of his elbow. If he goes unsigned and becomes a free agent, those public concerns could drive down his earning potential, especially if it is just a perceived issue. If licensed and credible doctors say his elbow is sound and the Astros are saying they don't think they are correct, then you Aiken may have legal grounds to file a suit.

If he hits the open market and finds teams using this elbow issue as leverage against him in negotiation, it could open a big can of worms for Houston.

Medical information is very sensitive, which is why teams are so protective about when and how they release injury information.

You also have to remember the Astros have exclusive negotiation rights on Aiken. This kid can't just go find his contract someone else. He's not on the free market. That's where collective bargaining issues come into play and where professional sports are allowed exemptions from typical business laws. He is very much at the mercy of the Houston Astros and if they take part in unfair negotiations, you better believe the law can come into the place. This is why the Players Association exists, to make sure franchises and owners operate fairly with the players.

Last edited 7/15/2014 6:23 PM by KylMss

Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/18/2014 4:32 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Deadline is today. Brady Aiken among trio of top picks Astros fail to sign because of Aiken's extensive negotiations. Could be a bolt from the blue for both sides in the end for not coming to an official agreement. But if I'm Houston ownership I wouldn't be too happy after all this and especially given Appel's difficult time transitioning into pro ball.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/18/2014 6:30 PM

Re: Luhnow 


Does anybody know much about how Luhnow's first 1st round pick, Carlos Correa, is panning out. I know he is out for the year with a broken leg. I also know he hit well in the mid-levels. Is he looking like a ML shortstop?
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/18/2014 11:22 PM

Re: Luhnow 



blingboy wrote: Does anybody know much about how Luhnow's first 1st round pick, Carlos Correa, is panning out. I know he is out for the year with a broken leg. I also know he hit well in the mid-levels. Is he looking like a ML shortstop?
I don't see enough games or read around baseball worldwide to know if he can be a ML shortstop. This can help:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?arti cleid=23518
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/19/2014 6:38 AM

Re: Luhnow 


Thanks DT.  

For anyone else with any interest here is what I found on point of the stuff open to BP non-subscribers.

"Correa was torching the High-A California League to the tune of a .325/.416/.510 triple-slash line as a 19-year-old. Reports of his inevitable switch to third base have softened some, with a number of evaluators now buying into the talented Puerto Rican prep product at least beginning his major league career at the six spot."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?arti cleid=24070

The cited article is one of a set of three non-subscriber articles comparing Correa, Luhnow's 2012 1st round pick, and Byron Buxton, the guy Luhnow passed on to take Correa. With this year's bust, and last year's guy flopping around, I had wondered how Correa was doing.  It seems like Buxton being out all year coupled with Corea's strong showing before going down has maybe dampened any heat there may have been about passing on Buxton.
It seems like both guys should easily be in the upper levels next season.

Last edited 7/19/2014 6:48 AM by blingboy

Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/19/2014 12:17 PM

Re: Luhnow 


With Luhnow, it won't all be about those top picks.

From 2005 to 2007, the first three Cardinals drafts overseen by Luhnow produced 24 future major leaguers, the most of any team during that period.

For instance, AJ Reed is killing it so far as is their other top pick Derek Fisher.

McCullers was another top draft choice plus Fontana and he had some guys in the system to work with already such as DeShields and Springer.

Not to mention, the haul he got from the Phillies for Pence (Singleton, Santana) and some of the other trades netting guys like Oberholtzer, Peacock, Clemens, Zeid, Cosart, Fowler, and Carter.

He should have a pretty long leash and he will have a huge payroll to work with.

Last edited 7/19/2014 12:18 PM by PadsFS

Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 7/19/2014 1:48 PM

Re: Luhnow 



PadsFS wrote: 

Not to mention, the haul he got from the Phillies for Pence (Singleton, Santana) and some of the other trades netting guys like Oberholtzer, Peacock, Clemens, Zeid, Cosart, Fowler, and Carter.


Lunhow was still with Cardinals when Pence was traded to Phillies in 2011.. Wade was still GM then..

DT   Right now today who would you rather have? Buxton and Bryant or Correa and Appel?
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/19/2014 3:12 PM

Re: Luhnow 



Teufelshunde4 wrote:
PadsFS wrote: 

Not to mention, the haul he got from the Phillies for Pence (Singleton, Santana) and some of the other trades netting guys like Oberholtzer, Peacock, Clemens, Zeid, Cosart, Fowler, and Carter.


Lunhow was still with Cardinals when Pence was traded to Phillies in 2011.. Wade was still GM then..

DT   Right now today who would you rather have? Buxton and Bryant or Correa and Appel?
I'm no scout or prospect writer. But without glancing at Correa and Appel I would go with Buxton and Bryant. Correa will be an everyday shortstop and probably a perennially All-Star while Appel's stuff has diminished greatly many are saying he'd be lucky to make it as back-end starter. Buxton and Bryant have the potential to be impact the game and be contend for MVP's annually.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 7/19/2014 5:39 PM

Re: Luhnow 


This is the #1 pick in the draft. Pitiful job by the Astros here and we would be livid if the Cards were left with nothing like they are now.
Reply | Quote
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
  Page of 3  Next >