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No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term

Posted: 11/12/2013 10:46 AM

No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


If the Cardinals deal Adams, or any of the great young pitching..... they are making a huge mistake and are going to be lacking in run differential overall in 2014. 

2013 HR's carried over to 2014
Andrus - 4 (for the stolen base lovers out there, he had a +34 which is in some peoples eyes equal to 8.5 HR's, but when you consider he only had a total of 25 extra base hits(Kozma only had 4 less), in my opinion he better steal way more than that!  So I'm not going to factor that in)
Carpenter - 11
Holliday - 22
Craig -13
Molina -12
Freese - 9
Jay - 7
Taveras? - 15 is fair I think?...

That is 93, add 10 from the bench and that's 103 HR's from the whole team!  (last year was only 125 total)
103 would put them at 29th in the league last year, beating out only Miami who lost 100 games.  Andrus' defense and base running would not make up for anywhere close to enough runs that it would cost when you factor in losing Adams and a solid pitcher who's innings would go to a lesser pitcher.  

However, they have plenty of money to sign FA's, if they sign Peralta (2/16M), Granderson(3/45M) and Mark Reynolds(1/6M) for 2014 and A. Diaz (5/45M) for 2015 and beyond it would look like this..... 
Carpenter - 11
Peralta - 11
Holliday - 22
Craig -13
Adams - 25 is realistic
Molina -12
Granderson - 25 (what Stemer, who is VERY conservative, has up for 2014)
Freese - 9 
Reynolds as PH/3B/1B - 18 (in 400 AB's is what Stemer projects, once again he's conservative)
Rest of bench (with Taveras included starting in June) - 20? 

-161 HR's compared to 103, and yes, that more than makes up for a few extra K's and not as good of a defense when you consider the overall run differential
-Giving up a good pitcher that would have to be replaced by a lesser pitcher
-Giving up Adams and his power
-Much more long term flexibility and this fits easily into the payroll even without using the TV money
-Starting Oscar's arb clock when he could use a little more time in AAA anyways after a lost year
-Bottom line is (and no one can disagree with this, if you take runs produced - runs given up you come out with a number that is the overall run differential which produces wins) trading Adams and Lynn, or Miller for Andrus is not going to end up as a better run differential overall.

For comparison's sake, if they trade for Tulo and $134M into his mid/late 30's and give up Adams and a ton of great pitching.....
Carpenter - 11
Jay -7
Holliday - 22
Tulo - 28 (Stemer projection, based on hitting in Coors)
Craig -13
Molina -12
Freese - 9
Taveras - 15
Rest of bench - 10
That would be 127 total, but they have also lost a lot of young great pitching, Matt Adams and probably more...

Just say no to the trade Mo, sign Peralta, Granderson, Diaz and Reynolds and still have a stocked farm system with tons of young pitching.  

Side note, if a team wants Lynn or Kelly, which I'm sure plenty do (Waino, Wacha, Miller, Garcia, Lynn or Kelly, CMart, Gast, Lyons, Whiting would still be left, any other team can only dream to have that) they could deal either or even both for a very good young, lower level power hitting prospect and make the farm even stronger and keep the Cards in contention for the next decade and more!  With FA pitchers who aren't as good as those two going through the roof, see Lincecum 2/35M, Santana will get 5/75, Jackson got 4/54 from the Cubs etc, etc, etc., I have no doubt that a team on the brink of contending would give up a true power hitting OF or 3B prospect in A or A+ (Keep in mind, Holliday's contract is up in 3 years).
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Posted: 11/12/2013 11:16 AM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


No trades is usually a good strategy when you have a lot of young talent. Stan Musial adopted that approach in 67 with great results.

On the other hand Frank Lane and Devine under pressure from Gussy traded away a lot of good young players with poor results.

I think the trick in our current situation is to trade those players that others have a higher opinion of than we do. Don't know who that would be but we do have too many starting pitchers if you ever have too many.

I'm really not inclined to agree to a trade where more than one potentially high impact talent is given away.

The Rangers seem to be the best possibility. They have two shortstops and no matter how often they denying that one is available that situation will not last much longer. They also always need pitching and particularly pitchers who can keep the ball in the park.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 12:24 PM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


Which Diaz are we talking about?

I still don't think much of Peralta's defense, and am suspicious of his offense now that he's supposedly clean.  Granderson is on his way down; even before he was hurt his OBA was cratering.  Reynolds K's way too much to be an effective player, which is why he's been bouncing around so much.  Both of these guys are all-or-nothing guys, which is the *last* thing we should be looking at.  Sooner we trade for Adam Dunn, unless Gorman Thomas is still available.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 12:39 PM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


In general I favor a "no trade" approach most of the time. I do like deals when you have a guy that is fairly high in value at a position where you have depth, and can get quantity as well as young quality for him.


A perfect scenario like that might be Allen Craig in a year or two. Now I love Craig and would hate to lose him, but if ends up being primarily a first baseman and Adams looks to be the real deal, you could probably deal Craig next year and get a decent player and two or three good prospects from the right organization.

Craig will be 30 next year, so it would be almost a perfect time to make a deal if the opportunity is there. But of course if we deal Adams this winter, then you probably can't deal Craig in the next couple of years.

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Posted: 11/12/2013 1:41 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


Adopting a blanket no trade stance would not be a wise approach for any club. Nor would trading away important pieces of the team's future without significant return. As in anything, trying to find the proper middle ground is the challenge.

Only one thing is sure. No matter what is done - trading or standing pat - some segment of individuals will find fault with it.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
Follow both Brian and TCN on Twitter

Last edited 11/12/2013 1:41 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 11/12/2013 2:03 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


Even if Mo does nothing at all, the complexion of the team will be different next season. The likely emergence of Wong and Taveras as regulars changes things. So does the possible arrival of Garcia and maybe O'Neill as supporting cast. The array of newbie pitchers will be less new, and a couple of new newbies will likely emerge.

It will be a different team and, given the depth of pitching, it is hard to imagine a scenario where it is not competitive. Seen in that light, Mo's time frame for making moves he may want to make is not limited to this winter. He can wait. He would need a thick skin if he waits, to tolerate the fault finders.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:01 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


I was with you until Mark Reynolds... he is terriblebanghead.  He was cut by the Indians for a reason.

We wouldn't be near as good without timely trades.  Edmonds Rolen Freese Holliday Wainright all were good for the team long term.  Just have to find the right ones to pull the trigger on.

“Make sure you have a different opinion and people will talk about you”

Last edited 11/12/2013 3:27 PM by tillerjustin

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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:18 PM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



Jmodene1 wrote: Which Diaz are we talking about?

I still don't think much of Peralta's defense, and am suspicious of his offense now that he's supposedly clean.  Granderson is on his way down; even before he was hurt his OBA was cratering.  Reynolds K's way too much to be an effective player, which is why he's been bouncing around so much.  Both of these guys are all-or-nothing guys, which is the *last* thing we should be looking at.  Sooner we trade for Adam Dunn, unless Gorman Thomas is still available.
I put A. Diaz because I've seen his name spelled 3 different ways.  I believe the most common so far is Aledmys Diaz.  He's the Cuban kid that was suspend until February because he actually tried to be older than he actually was.  

Granderson is on his way down I'm sure, but he can't be any worse than Jon Jay in CF and he also has some power, in the 7 or 8 hole his K's wouldn't be as big of a deal and then be followed up by Freese or Reynolds is my thinking.

Senario to think about, let's say the top of the order just put a run on the board and there are two on and one out with the 7 and 8 spots coming up.... would you rather have Jay who might get a single or more than likely pop up or weakly ground out and then a Kozma strike out or foul pop up...... or would you rather have Granderson who could hit a 3 run HR followed by Reynolds who could hit a 3 run HR, at least if they don't strike out they will give the bottom of the order a chance to score.  I vote for the latter.   I'm not saying they will be middle of the order bats or should be, but for the 7 and 8 holes, they are perfect.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:26 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



Domeboys wrote: Adopting a blanket no trade stance would not be a wise approach for any club. Nor would trading away important pieces of the team's future without significant return. As in anything, trying to find the proper middle ground is the challenge.

Only one thing is sure. No matter what is done - trading or standing pat - some segment of individuals will find fault with it.
Very true, and I agree we should not have a 100% no trade stance, but what I think people on here and other sites are forgetting, they aren't exactly trading "prospects" like when Brett Wallace (AA at the time??) was traded for Holliday, but for a proven major league pitcher who in his rookie season posted an ERA just above 3 and with 15 wins, and a rookie batter who in half of a season of PA's hit 17 HR's with 52 RBI's.  A few years ago fans would have burnt down Busch if there was talk of trading one of those, but now the Cards are so rich with talent that everyone is undervaluing them.  
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:33 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



tillerjustin wrote: I was with you until Mark Reynolds... he is terriblebanghead.  He was cut by the Indians for a reason.

We wouldn't be near as good without timely trades.  Edmonds Rolen Freese Holliday Wainright all were good for the team long term.  Just have to find the right ones to pull the trigger on.
Edmonds - Adam Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield
Rolen - Polanco, Timlin and Bud Smith
Freese - Highly declining Edmonds
Holliday - Brett Wallace
Wainwright - Was us giving up talent to get prospects

None of the players involved on the Cards side were even close to as valuable as Miller, CMart or Adams.
 
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Posted: 11/12/2013 4:02 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


We get it...

As a side note, what a player did last year is not always a good predictor of what they will do next year.  We know we have good bats in Craig, Adams, Holliday, Carp and Yadi, with Wong and Taveras being strong possibilities.
"It is by the goodness of God that in our country we have those 3 unspeakably precious things: freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, & the prudence never to practice either of them." Mark Twain

Last edited 11/12/2013 5:02 PM by Beopig

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Posted: 11/12/2013 4:59 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



Domeboys wrote: Adopting a blanket no trade stance would not be a wise approach for any club. Nor would trading away important pieces of the team's future without significant return. As in anything, trying to find the proper middle ground is the challenge.

Only one thing is sure. No matter what is done - trading or standing pat - some segment of individuals will find fault with it.
True. My philosphy, if you want to call it that, has always been that if you have a winning club, then be cautious in dealing as you probably have more downside risk than upside.

But if your team is medicore or sub-.500, the downside risk is not so great and you might want to be more aggressive in putting a deal together.

The trick is when your team is in that 85-win area, where you need maybe one more key player to make the jump to the 90-win mark.

But then again, there is so much that can happen in any given season so you are never dealing in absolutes.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 5:10 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



Beopig wrote: We get it...

As a side note, what a player did last year is not always a good predictor of what they will do next year.  We know we have good bats in Craig, Adams, Holliday, Carp and Yadi, with Wong and Taveras being strong possibilities.
Well just be thankful I did it in another post..... and out of those guys you listed, who is going to hit more than 20 HR's besides Holliday and Adams in 2014?  If Adams is traded for a weak offensive SS the answer is Holliday.
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Posted: 11/12/2013 10:42 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



CardsInChitown wrote:
tillerjustin wrote: I was with you until Mark Reynolds... he is terriblebanghead.  He was cut by the Indians for a reason.

We wouldn't be near as good without timely trades.  Edmonds Rolen Freese Holliday Wainright all were good for the team long term.  Just have to find the right ones to pull the trigger on.
Edmonds - Adam Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield
Rolen - Polanco, Timlin and Bud Smith
Freese - Highly declining Edmonds
Holliday - Brett Wallace
Wainwright - Was us giving up talent to get prospects

None of the players involved on the Cards side were even close to as valuable as Miller, CMart or Adams.
 
Adams is not that good. They need to make trades and big ones if necessary to get a SS 3rd baseman and center fielder.  Freese, Kozma and Jay must not be in the lineup on opening day.  Trades MUST be made!
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Posted: 11/14/2013 3:46 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


I am always amazed when fans use the word "must" when discussing trades . . . "we must make" "we must protect" etc. The "must" if there is one is that the Cardinals must try to make the team better overall and not weaken it.
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Posted: 11/14/2013 4:02 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



DwaininAztec wrote: I am always amazed when fans use the word "must" when discussing trades . . . "we must make" "we must protect" etc. The "must" if there is one is that the Cardinals must try to make the team better overall and not weaken it.
Agreed, but would you agree that they "must not start" 2014 with Kozma/Descalso/Jackson/G. Garcia, as possible options to play the Reds on opening day though?  That in my opinion is one of your "must's".... I'd even rather them sign B. Rizzle (Brendan Ryan)!
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Posted: 11/14/2013 5:06 PM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



CardsInChitown wrote:
DwaininAztec wrote: I am always amazed when fans use the word "must" when discussing trades . . . "we must make" "we must protect" etc. The "must" if there is one is that the Cardinals must try to make the team better overall and not weaken it.
Agreed, but would you agree that they "must not start" 2014 with Kozma/Descalso/Jackson/G. Garcia, as possible options to play the Reds on opening day though?  That in my opinion is one of your "must's".... I'd even rather them sign B. Rizzle (Brendan Ryan)!

I don't agree.  Once again, that is an absolute.  There are ways to improve the team without improving SS.  Garcia could be the solution at SS.

Once you follow the premise that we MUST have someone other than Kozma/Descalso/Jackson/G. Garcia at SS, we could easily a bad move for the team that actually weakens the team in some other way.  It could be from giving up someone, like a SP or 2, in a trade.  It could be from making it harder to sign a free agent to shore up some area of need.  It could be from making it harder to sign our young talent to rich contracts in a few years.

Therefore, for me, there is never a situation where we MUST make a move for someone outside the organization.
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Posted: 11/15/2013 7:18 AM

RE: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 



forsch31 wrote:
CardsInChitown wrote:
DwaininAztec wrote: I am always amazed when fans use the word "must" when discussing trades . . . "we must make" "we must protect" etc. The "must" if there is one is that the Cardinals must try to make the team better overall and not weaken it.
Agreed, but would you agree that they "must not start" 2014 with Kozma/Descalso/Jackson/G. Garcia, as possible options to play the Reds on opening day though?  That in my opinion is one of your "must's".... I'd even rather them sign B. Rizzle (Brendan Ryan)!

I don't agree.  Once again, that is an absolute.  There are ways to improve the team without improving SS.  Garcia could be the solution at SS.

Once you follow the premise that we MUST have someone other than Kozma/Descalso/Jackson/G. Garcia at SS, we could easily a bad move for the team that actually weakens the team in some other way.  It could be from giving up someone, like a SP or 2, in a trade.  It could be from making it harder to sign a free agent to shore up some area of need.  It could be from making it harder to sign our young talent to rich contracts in a few years.

Therefore, for me, there is never a situation where we MUST make a move for someone outside the organization.

GET OUTTA MY HEAD FORSCHSTER!! Haha....well said.

Last edited 11/15/2013 7:18 AM by PadsFS

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Posted: 11/15/2013 7:23 AM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


unless we are trading Jon Jay or David Freese, to buy a short stop -as an example
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Posted: 12/2/2013 7:16 PM

Re: No Trade is the Best Trade for the Cards Long Term 


I had not revisited this post in a few weeks, but Mo must have read this and then signed Peralta.  Great, perfect actually, move from an overall organizational standpoint for the Cards.  Now that the Cardinals are not in a "desperate situation" for a SS, I could still see them moving Lynn, Kelly, or another expendable player for a very good prospect.
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