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Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development

Posted: 11/1/2013 11:23 AM

Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


We pretty obviously have an unprecendented group of five young, amazing pitchers.

I'd like to look at their development and innings loads here:

Siegrist, 24 years old:
Siegrist seemed to hit a wall at the end of 2013, but managed to pitch pretty well in the playoffs with a 3.00 ERA over 6 innings. His load was 73 innings after two years of 100+ innings. I don't think his role will change so he seems just fine

Rosenthal, 23 years old:
Rosenthal had 135 innings in 2011 and 140 innings in 2012, but was limited to relief this year and wound up with just 87 innings, albeit in high leverage situations. I would say he will probably be right back where he started last year with regards to the innings and that's unfortunate from a development standpoint.

Miller, 23 years old:
Miller didn't pitch but an inning in the playoffs and had 174 innings on the year, up from 154 last year and 140 from the year before. Miller was said to have "14 innings" left. I think that the plan was to use Wacha in the NLDS and NLCS game 2, and sub Miller in from there if needed, but Wacha was just too good to pull honestly. Either way, Miller should be good for a 190-200 innings limit next year and hopefully he doesn't wear out like this year when his K rate dropped.

Wacha, 22 years old:
Wacha got 180 innings this year after just 137 last year and 141 the year before that. He pitched so well up until that final start that he just couldn't come out. He is a star and honestly, I really hope they protect him next year. He probably shouldn't get more than 180-190 innings as we saw his fastball velocity decline in those last two starts pretty significantly.

Martinez, 22 years old:
Martinez is a little behind the rest of the group with 85, 116, and 121 innings in the last three years. They likely will push him to about 150-160 innings next year. He is certainly a gem of a pitcher.

Last edited 11/1/2013 11:23 AM by PadsFS

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Posted: 11/1/2013 11:27 AM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



PadsFS wrote: We pretty obviously have an unprecendented group of five young, amazing pitchers.

I'd like to look at their development and innings loads here:

Siegrist, 24 years old:
Siegrist seemed to hit a wall at the end of 2013, but managed to pitch pretty well in the playoffs with a 3.00 ERA over 6 innings. His load was 73 innings after two years of 100+ innings. I don't think his role will change so he seems just fine

Rosenthal, 23 years old:
Rosenthal had 135 innings in 2011 and 140 innings in 2012, but was limited to relief this year and wound up with just 87 innings, albeit in high leverage situations. I would say he will probably be right back where he started last year with regards to the innings and that's unfortunate from a development standpoint.

Miller, 23 years old:
Miller didn't pitch but an inning in the playoffs and had 174 innings on the year, up from 154 last year and 140 from the year before. Miller was said to have "14 innings" left. I think that the plan was to use Wacha in the NLDS and NLCS game 2, and sub Miller in from there if needed, but Wacha was just too good to pull honestly. Either way, Miller should be good for a 190-200 innings limit next year and hopefully he doesn't wear out like this year when his K rate dropped.

Wacha, 22 years old:
Wacha got 180 innings this year after just 137 last year and 141 the year before that. He pitched so well up until that final start that he just couldn't come out. He is a star and honestly, I really hope they protect him next year. He probably shouldn't get more than 180-190 innings as we saw his fastball velocity decline in those last two starts pretty significantly.

Martinez, 22 years old:
Martinez is a little behind the rest of the group with 85, 116, and 121 innings in the last three years. They likely will push him to about 150-160 innings next year. He is certainly a gem of a pitcher.
True and if we just had some consistent offense to go along with them we'd have a dynasty.  Junior, Mo, make it happen.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 11:28 AM

RE: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


One thing that strikes me as odd about the "innings limit" for Miller is that Wacha ended up pitching more innings than Miller this year. Miller pitched 17 more innings than Wacha last year so, in theory, he should have been able to pitch quite a few more than Wacha this year.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 11:36 AM

RE: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



forsch31 wrote: One thing that strikes me as odd about the "innings limit" for Miller is that Wacha ended up pitching more innings than Miller this year. Miller pitched 17 more innings than Wacha last year so, in theory, he should have been able to pitch quite a few more than Wacha this year.

Like I said, I think Matheny got handcuffed due to Wacha's outstanding performance. He had to ride Wacha's arm after that Pittsburgh game, then after the LAD series, he couldn't bench him in the WS....it is odd though.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 12:27 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


I hope we don't have an Atlanta-like run coming where the pitching is good enough to make the playoffs, but the lineup isn't nearly good enough to win titles. That's exactly what it seemed like this season.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 12:45 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


Wacha is a star?  Martinez is a gem?

Well, i beg to differ.  Wacha may eventually become one and Martinez might have nasty stuff. 

Having said that, Wacha had a 3-4 really good starts late in the year but i dont believe that automatically makes him a star.  Lets seem him prove it long term.  And Martinez was dominating at times but i dont think he has reached gem status yet.

However, i hope you turn out to be correct.  Its just that at this point i think there are too many people jumping the gun with regards to our young pitchers.  All you can say at this point is that the future looks bright.  They've done, for the most part, pretty well so far but there is a long, long road ahead.

Rat
 

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Posted: 11/1/2013 12:47 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



SD70Mac wrote:
 I hope we don't have an Atlanta-like run coming where the pitching is good enough to make the playoffs, but the lineup isn't nearly good enough to win titles. That's exactly what it seemed like this season.


I'd prefer it if you two debbie downers didn't derail my thread.

Either way, you, specifically, couldn't be more wrong:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...0&sort=16,d

Top, as in #1, offense in the entire national league.

Could be a fluke though, right?

Last year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...0&sort=16,d

guess not...

Now let's talk about Shelby Miller!

Start another thread if you want to bitch about the offense not showing up and how terrible they are, etc...
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Posted: 11/1/2013 12:54 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



RatsBuddy wrote:

Wacha is a star?  Martinez is a gem?

Well, i beg to differ.  Wacha may eventually become one and Martinez might have nasty stuff. 

Having said that, Wacha had a 3-4 really good starts late in the year but i dont believe that automatically makes him a star.  Lets seem him prove it long term.  And Martinez was dominating at times but i dont think he has reached gem status yet.

However, i hope you turn out to be correct.  Its just that at this point i think there are too many people jumping the gun with regards to our young pitchers.  All you can say at this point is that the future looks bright.  They've done, for the most part, pretty well so far but there is a long, long road ahead.

Rat
 


Good points. I'm not going to debate the definition of *star* and *gem* or *ace* with you, because, quite frankly, we just disagree completely on this.

The thing is, and it's a wonderful thing, we don't necessarily need any of these pitchers to turn to stars. Say they were all taking a train ride up to Chicago next week to see the spectacular model railroad exhibit at the Botanical Gardens there. If the train they were on derailed and they all got rebar thrust into their forearms, we'd still be pretty set in the rotation. Not as good, but solid at least.

With Wainwright, Lynn, Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, and Gast, we have the "veteran" or "solid" foundation that can allow these guys to not be like the mid-90's Mets' prospects and feel all that pressure from the organization to succeed.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 12:57 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



PadsFS wrote:

With Wainwright, Lynn, Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, and Gast, we have the "veteran" or "solid" foundation that can allow these guys to not be like the mid-90's Mets' prospects and feel all that pressure from the organization to succeed.

I agree, this is also a very good point.  Makes me wonder what job, if any, Chris Carpenter might have with regards to our young staff.

Rat
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Posted: 11/1/2013 1:18 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



RatsBuddy wrote:
PadsFS wrote:

With Wainwright, Lynn, Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, and Gast, we have the "veteran" or "solid" foundation that can allow these guys to not be like the mid-90's Mets' prospects and feel all that pressure from the organization to succeed.

I agree, this is also a very good point.  Makes me wonder what job, if any, Chris Carpenter might have with regards to our young staff.

Rat

I'd like to see him as an assistant pitching coach or something. I don't think they should fire anyone to make room for him, but moreso squeeze him in somewhere. You almost have to right?

If he wants to pitch, I'd offer him a job replacing Mujica/Axford in the bullpen. I bet he would be a pretty great relief pitcher, if healthy.

Last edited 11/1/2013 1:20 PM by PadsFS

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Posted: 11/1/2013 2:04 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


Nice look at the innings pitched Pads.  Although he's not a young guy, I'd like the Cards to be careful with Wainwright as well.  He threw 276 2/3 innings this year eek, which amazingly was slightly higher than Carp in 2011.  He did this only one year after his post Tommy John recovery season so hopefully the strain wasn't too much.  

The good thing is, we have a surplus of arms that could be used as a 6th starter if we wanted to give some guys in our rotation a little break now and then.

Hopefully people don't expect too much from Wacha next year.  We all see the talent, but there's a book on him now and next year will be all about him learning to make adjustments while continuing the development of his curveball.  I expect him to be good, but not lights out.  Maybe by the end of the year he will grow into a dominating role, but he'll have plenty of work to do.

I think Shelby should be good as long as he's mentally strong and he isn't affected negatively by how he was used (or not used) this past post season.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 2:07 PM

Re: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 



PadsFS wrote:
RatsBuddy wrote:
PadsFS wrote:

With Wainwright, Lynn, Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, and Gast, we have the "veteran" or "solid" foundation that can allow these guys to not be like the mid-90's Mets' prospects and feel all that pressure from the organization to succeed.

I agree, this is also a very good point.  Makes me wonder what job, if any, Chris Carpenter might have with regards to our young staff.

Rat

I'd like to see him as an assistant pitching coach or something. I don't think they should fire anyone to make room for him, but moreso squeeze him in somewhere. You almost have to right?

If he wants to pitch, I'd offer him a job replacing Mujica/Axford in the bullpen. I bet he would be a pretty great relief pitcher, if healthy.
In some of the post season interviews it sounded like Carp had accepted the fact that his pitching days are behind him.  I would like to see him in the organization somewhere, and maybe he starts out as a roaming pitching instructor where you could sprinkle his knowledge around the farm.  That would also give the organization an opportunity to evaluate where he might fit best at.  Regardless, I think he'll be part of the organization next year in some capacity.
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Posted: 11/1/2013 3:58 PM

RE: Fab 5 Inning Loads & Development 


I honestly think Carp's most valuable where he was at this year, mentoring and in the ear of the young MLB pitchers who have already made it to the Cardinals. While he could be valuable for others on the farm I would much rather have him with people who have already made it and work to improve them.
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