Posted: 11/1/2013 10:17 AM
1) Jhonny Peralta (Free Agent)
· 32 years old to start next season.
· Hit .303 with a .358 OBP, 11 home runs and 3 stolen bases in 448 PAs this year.
· Finished year on suspension due to steroids use.
· Above-average defensively at SS. Slightly lower than Kozma.
· FA so a likely 3yr/$33M contract.
No chance of being offered arbitration. Peralta has a career .268 BA and had a .374 BABIP last year. In 2012, he had a .239 BA and a .308 BABIP. His batted ball data suggest he improved his LD%, but definitely not enough to raise a BABIP up almost 70 points.
Here's a profile piece if you want to read more:
2) Alexei Ramirez
· Hit .284 with a .313 OBP, 6 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 674 PAs this year.
· Above-average defensively at SS. Better than Kozma and may stay there.
· Will be in the 3rd year of a 4-year extension, $9.5M in 2014, $10M in 2015 and a $10M Option for 2016.
Cost beyond salary:
Ramirez had some leg issues early in the 2013 season. Regardless, the White Sox were demanding someone of the likes of Carlos Martinez for him during the trade deadline.
Likely trade: With Abreu signed, the White Sox likely won’t need Matt Adams anymore. I could see the Cardinals giving up someone like Siegrist and Lynn for him. I don’t know what else they’d want.
3) Stephen Drew (Free Agent)
· 31 years old to start next season.
· Hit .253 with a .333 OBP, 13 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 501 PAs this year.
· Struggled at beginning of this year dealing with a concussion.
On Fangraphs, Dave Cameron suggests that he will be very unlikely to get offered arbitration and if he did, he would likely accept. On Fangraphs FA tracker, Drew is the #13 best free agent this year. *** check that, Drew will be offered arbitration, so he will, in fact, cost a draft pick now ***
4) J.J. Hardy
· Hit .263 with a .301 OBP, 25 home runs and 2 stolen bases in 644 PAs this year.
· Above-average defensively at SS. Better than Kozma.
· Will be in the 3rd year of a 3-year extension, $7M in 2014.
Baltimore generally is pretty finicky about trading their high-priced talent (Tejada, Bedard)
Likely trade: I could see a Lance Lynn and David Freese trade working out. Freese could play 3B and Freese/Machado would be better than Machado/Hardy offensively. Machado’s injury complicates this though.
5) Erick Aybar
· 30 years old to start next season.
· Hit .271 with a .301 OBP, 6 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 589 PAs this year.
· Average defensively at SS. Likely worse than Kozma
· 3rd year of a 5yr/$40M extension. Has $8.5M due in 2014-2016.
Aybar is durable and hits well for a SS with a career .277 BA and about 7-8 HR a year. His speed is declining as is his range, but it’s not a steep decline. Hardy and Peralta have shown that defense can even be improved upon as you hit your 29-31 age range.
Likely trade: Likely not one as Aybar is a SS for the Angels and they have zero replacements in the pipeline. An Angel’s blog mentioned Wacha by name in this article as a pipedream:
6) Asdrubal Cabrera
· 28 years old to start next season.
· Hit .242 with a .299 OBP, 14 home runs and 9 stolen bases in 562 PAs this year.
· Far below-average defensively at SS.
· Only one year left on his 3 year extension and it’s at $10M.
When the Cards asked about him last off season, the Indians demanded Rosenthal plus more prospects on top of that. The Indians have a great SS coming up in Lindor and would likely just keep Cabrera until then, especially considering Lindor back injury this past season.
Likely trade: They will likely want a guy like Lynn or Kelly perhaps. No need for Wong or Adams here and no way the Cardinals trade a young, upside pitcher.
7) Elvis Andrus
· 25 years old to start next season.
· Hit .271 with a .328 OBP, 4 home runs and 42 stolen bases in 698 PAs this year.
· Far above-average defensively at SS. Better than Kozma.
· Will be in the 3rd year of a 3-year extension, $6.5M in 2014. Starts an 8yr/$118M Extension after that.
Andrus had an off year this year due to a hip problem. He OPS’d .774 after the all-star break
Likely trade: I could see us dealing Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez to Texas for Andrus. We may have to include Matt Adams as well and take on a lesser player to even it out a bit, unfortunately.
8) Didi Gregorius
· 24 years old to start next season.
· Hit .252 with a .332 OBP, 7 home runs and 0 stolen bases in 404 PAs this year.
· Will be in the 2nd season so five years remaining, three arbitration years and two pre-arb salaries…CHEAP!!
Gregorius started out with Cincinnati and he OPS’d around .700-.750 at all his MiLB stops. He really, really slumped after the first three months of the season, batting around .207 in the second half. (Kozma’s level)
Likely trade: I could see us dealing Kevin Siegrist or Carlos Martinez to Arizona for Didi. They won’t want a 2B or 1B and it’s pretty clear that their rotation lacks some strikeout pitchers. They may even require a Miller or Wacha.
9) Nick Franklin
· 23 years old to start next season.
· Hit .225 with a .303 OBP, 12 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 412 PAs this year.
· Above-average defensively at SS.
· He’ll be in the 2nd pre-arb year, thus 5 years of control remaining, two of which are extremely cheap.
Franklin has above-average plate discipline and hit well in AA/AAA in the Mariners organization. (.320’s BA) Franklin is basically blocked at SS by Brad Miller so Franklin would be an ideal trade candidate. The M’s have him at 2B so including Wong would likely have to happen.
Likely trade: With Franklin manning 2B, you would have to include Wong in any such deal. Wong isn’t exactly good enough to acquire Franklin by himself so I could see a match with a second-tier starter included. I’d love to give a little more, say Adams or Lynn, and get Ackley back as well. Ackley is only going to be 26, but would be a heckuva super-utility and would give us a backup option if Freese or Jay falters next year (Ackley can play 2B or CF)
10) Chris Owings
· 22 years old to start next season.
· Hit .291 with a .361 OBP, 0 home runs and 2 stolen bases in 61 PAs this year.
· Average defensively at SS, but very young and athletic.
· Will still have rookie status going into next season similar to Kolten Wong.
Owings has 1,700 minor league plate appearances and has a 3.6% BB rate. That is atrocious. He killed the ball in AAA this year with a .837 OPS, but had a .384 BABIP. His LD rate was high so maybe that’s somewhat sustainable. He continued that high BABIP/BA in Arizona this past September with a .291 BA and a .356 BABIP.
Likely trade: Most people in Arizona think Owings, not Gregorius, is the long-term solution for SS for them. Prado at 3B and Aaron Hill at 2B means they would have little interest in Freese and Wong. I don’t think they’d want to take on the future salary of Lynn either so Martinez is the likely go-to prospect in this one if not more. They gave up Bauer for Gregorius last year so that’s probably the floor here.
11) Jurickson Profar
· 21 years old to start next season.
· Hit .234 with a .308 OBP, 6 home runs and 2 stolen bases in 324 PAs this year.
· Above-average defensively at SS, but very young and athletic.
Jurickson was the #1 prospect heading into 2013. The Rangers mishandled his development in my opinion, putting him at 2B, SS, 3B, and in the outfield as well as DH. He will still be expensive, but I think the not-for-sale label may be removed.
Likely trade: I think it will start with Miller. Then you’ll add in Adams and also probably Lynn. Perhaps a straight deal for Taveras would work, but I’d still bet they’d need a pitcher like Siegrist. I would be fine with anything that kept Wacha and Taveras on the team.
Last edited 11/1/2013 10:30 AM by PadsFS
Posted: 11/1/2013 10:29 AM
Updated:**** Added three new options ****
12) Starlin Castro
· 24 years old to start next season.
· Hit .245 with a .284 OBP, 10 home runs and 9 stolen bases in 705 PAs this year.
· Average defensively at SS.
· Will be in the 3rd year of a 8-year extension, $5M due in 2014.
Cost beyond salary:
Castro certainly had some mental lapses the last few years. I think those are some issues that won’t necessarily come with him. Likely they were due to playing for one of the worst teams in baseball the last two years. The Cubs have Javier Baez, who is a star SS prospect and will likely be called up by July-August.
Likely trade: The Cubs want Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, or Tyrell Jenkins and a possible shortstop, likely Jackson or Kozma. I wouldn’t be opposed to this one bit honestly. Castro, in the right environment could be a star. I don’t think I would trade Miller plus Martinez, but some combination may work. Miller has already proven himself well this year and I think Martinez is destined for the bullpen so I think he would be the one I would move.
13) Jed Lowrie
· 30 years old to start next season.
· Hit .290 with a .344 OBP, 15 home runs and 1 stolen base in 662 PAs this year.
· Will be in the 3rd Arb of 3 and a free agent after 2014.
Lowrie is an interesting candidate. At first, I didn’t think the A’s would be up for trading their solid shortstop, but I didn’t realize top prospect Addison Russell, a shortstop, progressed so much in the 2013 campaign. Russell finished the year in AAA and is holding his own in the AFL. A June/July call-up is completely reasonable for the 20 year old now. The A’s also have Hiroyuki Nakajima, who spent the season at AAA Sacramento. Nakajima hit .283/.331/.367 for Sacramento, looking like a utility player. He could easily serve as the SS until Russell is ready (as could Lowrie though)
Likely trade: The A’s obtained Lowrie for a trade centered on Chris Carter, a Matt Adams type hitter. With Lowrie’s strong season in 2013, a similar package will likely be needed to pry him away, even though he is only a year from free agency. The A’s are built to win now and with Colon gone, they are likely looking for a solid starting pitcher as well as a promising bat. I don’t think Adams fits in well there with Brandon Moss. I’m not really sure what Lowrie would be worth though.
14) Brian Dozier
· 27 years old to start next season.
· Hit .244 with a .312 OBP, 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 623 PAs this year.
· Average defensively at SS. Moved to 2B after 2012 for Florimon.
· Will be in the 3rd and final pre-arbitration year.
Dozier got moved to 2B and was one of the Twins best players this past year. The Twins desperately need pitching and I think a guy like Dozier would be a good option to move. Plouffe could make a Matt Carpenter move and shift over to 2B. He played SS extensively in the minors. Then, the Twins could bring Sano up for the 3B position.
Likely trade: With Dozier age and skill set, I could see a Joe Kelly centered trade. The Twins will probably want a strike out pitcher though, so maybe Lynn would be a better fit. With Morneau gone, Matt Adams might be a fit in Minnesota also.
Last edited 11/4/2013 9:46 AM by PadsFS
Posted: 11/1/2013 10:34 AM
Posted: 11/1/2013 10:42 AM
desmetlax12 wrote: Wow, awesome analysis Pads! Thanks for putting that together!I agree with most of your assessments. I'm not as high on Gregorius as others, but I think I'm the outlier there. I wonder if Peralta will only get a 1 year deal in order to prove himself post PEDs. His improved LD rate that was a partial contributor to his BABIP increase may have been due to PED use. I'd be good for taking a flier on him if it's short term and it only costs us cash.Cabrera is the only one on that list that I would rule out immediately.What, no Tulo
No Tulowitzki. He is the most absurd talking point I've seen around here in a while. If he were completely healthy this year, but didn't perform like an MVP, there may have been a fit, but not now. Cardinals wouldn't want a injury-prone massive contract and Colorado wouldn't want to give up the best player in the NL.I don't really like Peralta as an option. He seems pretty unlikely to perform as well as certain fans and posters here would expect of him. I would see a .230 batting average and plus defense. Basically a combo of Descalso and Kozma.A big factor with a guy like Drew and Gregorius is that they are lefthanded so Peralta may play into our hands from that standpoint. Our lineup already struggles vs. lefties and our top three "prospects" Wong, Adams, and Taveras are all left-handed.
Last edited 11/1/2013 10:47 AM by PadsFS
Posted: 11/1/2013 11:03 AM
PadsFS wrote: I don't really like Peralta as an option. He seems pretty unlikely to perform as well as certain fans and posters here would expect of him. I would see a .230 batting average and plus defense. Basically a combo of Descalso and Kozma.
I don't really like Peralta as an option. He seems pretty unlikely to perform as well as certain fans and posters here would expect of him. I would see a .230 batting average and plus defense. Basically a combo of Descalso and Kozma.
Posted: 11/1/2013 11:32 AM
Last edited 11/1/2013 11:32 AM by PadsFS
Posted: 11/1/2013 12:48 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 12:57 PM
man i really want didi....Mostly because hes a known glove with bat upside. If it costs martinez id say forget it...just go hardy..I think its important to at least feign that we are willing to go with koz...dont want to look desperate
Posted: 11/1/2013 1:15 PM
Last edited 11/1/2013 4:30 PM by Bworth
Posted: 11/1/2013 1:37 PM
PadsFS wrote: I can't really decide on the best option really. I'd like to stay away from a short-term commitment too, which hurts Peralta, but we are probably a better team with Peralta, Miller, and Adams than with Profar or Peralta, Wong, and Lynn rather than Franklin. I don't know. There is a "use the money in other ways" cost to factor in *against* Peralta also.
Posted: 11/1/2013 2:36 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 2:39 PM
KatieCubFan wrote: The Cardinals reportedly have inquired about Starlin Castro. Supposedly they didn't hang up the phone when the Cubs asked for Martinez, Miller and Jenkins.http://metsmerizedonline.com/2...g-pitching.html
Posted: 11/1/2013 2:47 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 3:07 PM
TCRedbird wrote: KatieCubFan wrote: The Cardinals reportedly have inquired about Starlin Castro. Supposedly they didn't hang up the phone when the Cubs asked for Martinez, Miller and Jenkins.http://metsmerizedonline.com/2...g-pitching.htmlProbable just had them on mute laughing their butts off......I am assuming it would be Martinez, Miller or Jenkins and as much of a head case as he is, i wouldn't offer Martinez or MIller for him.
Posted: 11/1/2013 3:23 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 3:24 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 3:39 PM
pugsleyaddams wrote: ------------------------------------------------ desmetlax12 wrote:Wow, awesome analysis Pads! Thanks for putting that together!---------------------------------------------Indeed, Pads! And this on the heels of Oqie's masterpiece yesterday. All of we veteran posters have become used to these epic gems during the months of Nov. and Dec. every year. For those new posters who may not know, on the days of Dec.30 & 31st every year, we vote for 'The Cardinal Nation Poster of the Year' award. The winner announced on Jan. 1st. So right after the WS concludes, we always without fail receive a barrage of utterly fantastic posts, such as the ones we've been treated to the past two days from Oqie and Pads. We call it our Fall Blitz as posters give it their final push in vying for this esteemed award. So all of you new guys better get yours in quick. Below is a list of previous winners:2012- DMENS2011- Forschster2010- DizzyDean172009- DizzyDean172008- Haltz2007- DizzyDean172006- Catman2005- Catman2004- Philskill
Posted: 11/1/2013 4:33 PM
KatieCubFan wrote: TCRedbird wrote: KatieCubFan wrote: The Cardinals reportedly have inquired about Starlin Castro. Supposedly they didn't hang up the phone when the Cubs asked for Martinez, Miller and Jenkins.http://metsmerizedonline.com/2...g-pitching.htmlProbable just had them on mute laughing their butts off......I am assuming it would be Martinez, Miller or Jenkins and as much of a head case as he is, i wouldn't offer Martinez or MIller for him.Yeah, I missed the "or" part of that. Why didn't Miller see much action in the playoffs?
Posted: 11/1/2013 5:06 PM
Posted: 11/1/2013 5:24 PM
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