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2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15

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Posted: 10/11/2013 4:46 PM

2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Lance Lynn (1-1, 7.11) vs. Ricky Nolasco (post-season debut). 7:07 p.m. CT. TBS, ESPN Radio and KMOX.

Cards lineup: Carpenter 4, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Adams 3, Molina 2, Jay 8, Freese 5, Descalso 6, Lynn 1.

Descalso in for Kozma.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Last edited 10/15/2013 5:34 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 10/12/2013 1:48 AM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


With Lynn pitching multiple innings in relief in Game 1, this would seem to be Miller's start.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 10/12/2013 11:13 AM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Wrong. Matheny has announced that Lynn will get the ball in Game 4.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Posted: 10/12/2013 11:20 AM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


What's up with Miller? Injury, fatiguing, controlling his innings for the future, etc... You'd think someone whose going to receive legit ROY candidacy that would make one postseason start. Lynn's outing last night clearly got him this reward for Tuesday night.
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Posted: 10/12/2013 11:41 AM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



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--- DTFlush234 wrote:

What's up with Miller? Injury, fatiguing, controlling his innings for the future, etc... You'd think someone whose going to receive legit ROY candidacy that would make one postseason start. Lynn's outing last night clearly got him this reward for Tuesday night.

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At the news conference just a little while ago, Matheny says it was the plan all along to have Lynn only pitch a couple of innings (presumably counting as his between-starts bullpen) with Miller ready to take over from the 14th inning on. Clearly, Miller is the long man in this year's postseason rotation, and I'm not sure why.

As it is, Lynn threw 29 pitches (compared to 33 for Rosenthal) and will be going on 3 days' rest, albeit 3 days after those 29 pitches, not 3 days after a 124-pitch start like Kershaw did the other night. Of course, Lance Lynn is no Clayton Kershaw. Not sure he's even a Shelby Miller.

Last edited 10/12/2013 11:44 AM by Jmodene1

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Posted: 10/12/2013 12:13 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense
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Posted: 10/12/2013 12:47 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



grayssportsalmanac wrote: There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense

It's definitely the "elephant in the room" this post season. If you're going to have Shelby on the active roster but not use him, you need to get someone else active. It's ridiculous to play with a 24 man roster.

If Miller can't go, then I'd active Freeman and have another lefty in the bullpen you can go to.
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Posted: 10/12/2013 1:18 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 




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--- bicyclemike wrote:


grayssportsalmanac wrote: There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense

It's definitely the "elephant in the room" this post season. If you're going to have Shelby on the active roster but not use him, you need to get someone else active. It's ridiculous to play with a 24 man roster.

If Miller can't go, then I'd active Freeman and have another lefty in the bullpen you can go to.

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Like I said, he's the long man. If a guy gets knocked out early, we don't have to use 9 pitchers in 9 innings the way Maddon did the other day when he took Hellickson out after one full inning.
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Posted: 10/12/2013 9:11 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Here's a link to Matheny' comments on choosing Lynn over Miller. He basically said it has to do with "match-ups" (a good way to talk yourself in to making a bad decision in my opinion) and the fact that Miller does not have "high pressure" experience (oh, but Martinez, Wacha, Maness, etc do, eh Mike?).

I think this is classic "coach-speak", and something is going on. Maybe it's a discipline thing, I don't know.

Now in Mike's defense, he did say they were taking in all of the information and how guys pitched in September, etc, when making their decisions. I just think when you have a top of the rotation starter, which Matheny said Miller is, then you gotta use him if he's healthy.

http://www.rotoworld.com/recen...7/shelby-miller
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Posted: 10/12/2013 11:59 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Ok, so I decided to take a deeper dive in this Shelby/Lynn discussion since I thought it was fairly obvious that Shelby should get the start given his success this season.  The article BikeMike links to above mentions match ups and how they finished the season as factors.  First the match up, they both started against LA once this season (both in LA) and Lynn was clearly better.  6 innings, 9ks, 1 BB, no runs for Lynn.  Shelby pitched 5 1/3, 3 ks, 1 BB, and 3 runs.  Small sample size so I don't know how telling this really is, but I do admit Lynn did in fact fare better against LA.

Now on to the more interesting discussion, how they finished the season.  I'll look at their September splits for this in which they both started 5 games.

Lynn  2.12 ERA,  10.92 K/9,  3.34 BB/9,  3.15 FIP  3.12 xFIP
Miller  2.76 ERA,   4.60 K/9,  3.99 BB/9,  4.24 FIP  5.17 xFIP

ERA wise it looks like they both dd pretty well, however the peripherals clearly point to Lynn having more dominate outings while Shelby's otherwise solid K/BB rate for the season dropped off significantly.  The FIP and xFIP numbers should give a decent idea of which way the ERAs may be trending.  Also, although Miller's BB rate increased over the season, his K/9 was consistently above 9 each month until it fell on its face in September.  Was it fatigue?  Injury?  Or just plain loss of effectiveness?  Whatever it is, Shelby did not finish the season with promising trends which may be what has Matheny spooked about using him in the postseason.

Last edited 10/13/2013 12:00 AM by desmetlax12

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Posted: 10/13/2013 12:08 AM

Re: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Good research, although it must be pointed out that Lynn's six-scoreless-inning outing in LA came with Ramirez on the DL, Puig in the minors, and Mattingly on the ropes. Then again, Miller's 3-runs-in-5-innings performance came that same weekend.
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Posted: 10/14/2013 5:52 AM

Re: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


I really wish we were starting Shelby.
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Posted: 10/14/2013 8:40 AM

Re: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 




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--- Brosky wrote:

I really wish we were starting Shelby.

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Hopefully we'll have a 3-0 series lead and it won't matter. Also hopefully, if Lynn struggles early, he won't have as long a leash as he had against Pittsburgh.
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Posted: 10/14/2013 3:21 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


Not a surprise and not for sure, but Mattingly hinting that if the Dodgers lose G3, he will start Greinke (not Kershaw, sorry) on short rest in G4.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Last edited 10/14/2013 4:28 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 10/14/2013 3:35 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 


brian wouldn't that be 2 days rest?  no way he can go in game 4 right, must be game 5?
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Posted: 10/14/2013 3:47 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 




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--- Domeboys wrote:

Not a surprise and not for sure, but Mattingly hinting that if the Dodgers lose G3, he will start Kershaw on short rest in G4.

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Did you mean greinke here? I read another report that said that even if they lose today nolasco will start game 4...i dont think there is any way that is true however...
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Posted: 10/14/2013 3:53 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



grayssportsalmanac wrote: There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense
Either that or MM just keeps on making stupid decisions....nothing stopped him from doing it all year so why stop now...
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Posted: 10/14/2013 4:07 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



TCRedbird wrote:
grayssportsalmanac wrote: There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense
Either that or MM just keeps on making stupid decisions....nothing stopped him from doing it all year so why stop now...
Shelby's peripherals took a nose dive in Sept.  His K% dropped from 24% to 12% and his walk rate went up.  His FIP was 4.24 and his xFiP was 5.17.  I'm guessing the stats guys in the FO think this is a worrisome trend and cautioned against starting him.

That's only speculation on my part but I can see how that would raise some red flags.
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Posted: 10/14/2013 4:18 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



TCRedbird wrote:
grayssportsalmanac wrote: There is obvs information mm has that we dont...this makes no sense
Either that or MM just keeps on making stupid decisions....nothing stopped him from doing it all year so why stop now...
Ha, ha, Cards had best record in the NL even though they played for a month without league's leading RBI man. Matheny is a candidate for Manager of the Year but we have a poster here who calls him stupid. Incredible! Obviously this poster missed his calling and should be running a major league club right now!
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Posted: 10/14/2013 4:28 PM

RE: 2013 NLCS Game 4 thread: Cards at Dodgers: Tue, Oct 15 



grayssportsalmanac wrote:

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--- Domeboys wrote:

Not a surprise and not for sure, but Mattingly hinting that if the Dodgers lose G3, he will start Kershaw on short rest in G4.

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Did you mean greinke here? I read another report that said that even if they lose today nolasco will start game 4...i dont think there is any way that is true however...
Yes, I meant Greinke. Thanks.
Brian Walton
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