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2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6

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Posted: 10/3/2013 8:06 AM

2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69) vs. Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02). Time 3:37 p.m. CT. TBS, ESPN radio and KMOX.

Cards lineup: Carpenter 4, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Molina 2, Freese 5, Adams 3, Jay 8, Kozma 6, Kelly 1.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
Follow both Brian and TCN on Twitter

Last edited 10/6/2013 1:02 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 10/4/2013 9:28 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


will be wild
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Posted: 10/4/2013 10:08 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 




---------------------------------------------
--- hardheaded wrote:

will be wild

---------------------------------------------

I'd hope he (Kelly) throws strikes.
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Posted: 10/4/2013 7:20 PM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


i think this is a 4-3 game either way

hope we can hit better than we have all year against liriano
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Posted: 10/4/2013 8:47 PM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


Tough enough to face Liriano but on the road our chances look slim playing in tHat atmosphere against one hottest pitchers over the last two months.
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Posted: 10/4/2013 10:58 PM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


will be interesting to see how pit plays when they are the favorite.  seems the whole world expects them to win game 3.

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Posted: 10/4/2013 11:14 PM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


No brainer here. Win just once in Pittsburgh and our Cards advance to the next round to play for the NL pennant. It is hope that they have learned something from their miserable play on the Pirates home field this year. If they have not, then they deserve to be watching the NLCS with the rest of we posters.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 12:32 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



DTFlush234 wrote: Tough enough to face Liriano but on the road our chances look slim playing in tHat atmosphere against one hottest pitchers over the last two months.
Last 10 reg season starts:
4-4
4.78 ERA
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Posted: 10/5/2013 5:03 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


we aren't beating liriano. this will be a blowout.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 9:51 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



pugsleyaddams wrote: No brainer here. Win just once in Pittsburgh and our Cards advance to the next round to play for the NL pennant. It is hope that they have learned something from their miserable play on the Pirates home field this year. If they have not, then they deserve to be watching the NLCS with the rest of we posters.
You are assuming that Wainwright will beat Cole in game 5.  I'm not.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 10:54 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 




---------------------------------------------
--- Catman61 wrote:


DTFlush234 wrote: Tough enough to face Liriano but on the road our chances look slim playing in tHat atmosphere against one hottest pitchers over the last two months.
Last 10 reg season starts:
4-4
4.78 ERA

---------------------------------------------

Starts at home this season:
8-1 W-L
1.47 ERA
26 BB/72 K
.174 Opp Avg
0.96 WHIP

That's not accounting his wild card start versus the Reds.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 10:58 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


I didn't see the game.  I was at school and it was over by the time I got home.  I did look at the box score and read recaps so I know what happened.  I didn't come to this forum or any other Cardinals forum yesterday because I knew what I would encounter and I wasn't in the mood.

Yesterday was a disappointing loss for sure.  A win would have put us in a strong position and assured us at least another home game.  But it didn't happen.  Losses happen in baseball, even postseason losses.  Players play badly or run into bad luck.  Managers make the wrong decisions.  Umpires make bad calls.  These things happen to all teams, no matter how good they are.  Greinke and the Dodgers got beat yesterday despite all the hype about how awesome their pitching staff was.  It happens.

I'm just curious.  Does all the bitching and moaning and complaining and proclamations of doom make those of you who do it feel better?  Is it a reverse psychology thing?  I'm serious, because for the life of me I don't understand it.  I would have to be committed to a room with bars on the windows if I approached every disappointment that way.

We can still win this thing.  The boys will just have to dig deep for that Cardinal determination and grit.  They will have to be disciplined.  Playing at PNC Park has been a bugaboo for the Cards this season, but that doesn't mean it has to continue.  Liriano can be beat.  The key is to lay off that slider out of the zone and force him to throw more hittable pitches.  Other teams with less talent have had success against him.  They knew what to do and they did it.  Our guys just have to not repeat the mistakes of the past.

Look on the bright side.  Even if Liriano beats them again, it's Charlie Morton going in Game 4.  The Cards have beaten him, even in PNC Park.  We can get it back to Busch and Waino.  And Cole will not be the "mystery pitcher" then.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:29 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


^ This isn't complicated. For sure, there's a lot of bitching and moaning after important losses -- on most message boards. Sports involve emotion, passion, and personal attachment. People handle the disappointment in different ways, not all of them good. If you let this sway your mood, then you're not handling it the best either.

Cards have a serious challenge now with the road environment and Liriano staring at them. Cards are a resilient bunch though and I believe they will steal at least one at PNC to win it or bring it back to Busch.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:48 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



EuroWolf wrote: ^ This isn't complicated. For sure, there's a lot of bitching and moaning after important losses -- on most message boards. Sports involve emotion, passion, and personal attachment. People handle the disappointment in different ways, not all of them good. If you let this sway your mood, then you're not handling it the best either.

Cards have a serious challenge now with the road environment and Liriano staring at them. Cards are a resilient bunch though and I believe they will steal at least one at PNC to win it or bring it back to Busch.
Fantastic post. This is not the only corner of the World where complaining happens. I am amazed we have spent as much time as we have on the subject. As far as the game goes i for one am not ready to shovel dirt on the Cardinals. I would not be surprised if Kelly does not out duel Liriano in this one. In the past this has been a very resilient team with their backs to the wall, Washington and Atlanta found that out last year. I think we have them right where we want them guys. Cards have shown in the past all they need is one good break to win. A blown call, botched play or can of corn is all it will take. I say they get it and win this one 4-3. If they do Pitt will be in a really tough spot not being able to go to Cole or Burnett for game 4 and still having to beat Waino at Busch.

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:49 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 




---------------------------------------------
--- Peanut82 wrote:

we aren't beating liriano. this will be a blowout.

---------------------------------------------


Thanks for the analysis
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:51 AM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



EuroWolf wrote: ^ This isn't complicated. For sure, there's a lot of bitching and moaning after important losses -- on most message boards. Sports involve emotion, passion, and personal attachment. People handle the disappointment in different ways, not all of them good. If you let this sway your mood, then you're not handling it the best either.

Cards have a serious challenge now with the road environment and Liriano staring at them. Cards are a resilient bunch though and I believe they will steal at least one at PNC to win it or bring it back to Busch.
It wasn't about swaying my mood.  I had a difficult day at school, so my mood was affected by that.  Coming to a known negative environment after that is the essence of masochism.  That is just smart mental health management.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:56 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 




---------------------------------------------
--- crdswmn wrote:

I didn't see the game.  I was at school and it was over by the time I got home.  I did look at the box score and read recaps so I know what happened.  I didn't come to this forum or any other Cardinals forum yesterday because I knew what I would encounter and I wasn't in the mood.

Yesterday was a disappointing loss for sure.  A win would have put us in a strong position and assured us at least another home game.  But it didn't happen.  Losses happen in baseball, even postseason losses.  Players play badly or run into bad luck.  Managers make the wrong decisions.  Umpires make bad calls.  These things happen to all teams, no matter how good they are.  Greinke and the Dodgers got beat yesterday despite all the hype about how awesome their pitching staff was.  It happens.

I'm just curious.  Does all the bitching and moaning and complaining and proclamations of doom make those of you who do it feel better?  Is it a reverse psychology thing?  I'm serious, because for the life of me I don't understand it.  I would have to be committed to a room with bars on the windows if I approached every disappointment that way.

We can still win this thing.  The boys will just have to dig deep for that Cardinal determination and grit.  They will have to be disciplined.  Playing at PNC Park has been a bugaboo for the Cards this season, but that doesn't mean it has to continue.  Liriano can be beat.  The key is to lay off that slider out of the zone and force him to throw more hittable pitches.  Other teams with less talent have had success against him.  They knew what to do and they did it.  Our guys just have to not repeat the mistakes of the past.

Look on the bright side.  Even if Liriano beats them again, it's Charlie Morton going in Game 4.  The Cards have beaten him, even in PNC Park.  We can get it back to Busch and Waino.  And Cole will not be the "mystery pitcher" then.

---------------------------------------------

You dont think they would go to cole on short rest against waino?
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Posted: 10/5/2013 11:58 AM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



grayssportsalmanac wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- crdswmn wrote:

I didn't see the game.  I was at school and it was over by the time I got home.  I did look at the box score and read recaps so I know what happened.  I didn't come to this forum or any other Cardinals forum yesterday because I knew what I would encounter and I wasn't in the mood.

Yesterday was a disappointing loss for sure.  A win would have put us in a strong position and assured us at least another home game.  But it didn't happen.  Losses happen in baseball, even postseason losses.  Players play badly or run into bad luck.  Managers make the wrong decisions.  Umpires make bad calls.  These things happen to all teams, no matter how good they are.  Greinke and the Dodgers got beat yesterday despite all the hype about how awesome their pitching staff was.  It happens.

I'm just curious.  Does all the bitching and moaning and complaining and proclamations of doom make those of you who do it feel better?  Is it a reverse psychology thing?  I'm serious, because for the life of me I don't understand it.  I would have to be committed to a room with bars on the windows if I approached every disappointment that way.

We can still win this thing.  The boys will just have to dig deep for that Cardinal determination and grit.  They will have to be disciplined.  Playing at PNC Park has been a bugaboo for the Cards this season, but that doesn't mean it has to continue.  Liriano can be beat.  The key is to lay off that slider out of the zone and force him to throw more hittable pitches.  Other teams with less talent have had success against him.  They knew what to do and they did it.  Our guys just have to not repeat the mistakes of the past.

Look on the bright side.  Even if Liriano beats them again, it's Charlie Morton going in Game 4.  The Cards have beaten him, even in PNC Park.  We can get it back to Busch and Waino.  And Cole will not be the "mystery pitcher" then.

---------------------------------------------

You dont think they would go to cole on short rest against waino?

No, she means Cole will be pitching the game on regular rest, thanks to the off-day on Tuesday.  He will have had Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday off.  So Cole will probably go on four days' rest and Waino on five.  Unless Hurdle decides to give Burnett another chance.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 1:31 PM

Re: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 


Just for fun, I went and did some research on Liriano.  I picked out the worst game he had at home and compared it to the best game he had at home against the Cardinals.  I chose not for wins v. losses, but number of ER in innings pitched.  Liriano's worst game at home was actually a win for him because his offense scored a lot of runs.  It was a game in June against the Giants that the Pirates won 12-8.  Liriano gave up 4ERs in 6 innings.  His best game against the Cardinals was in August and it was a 5-0 shutout.

I looked at the Pitch fx data for both games.  Just as I suspected, the difference was that the Giants didn't swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, while the Cardinals did.   Most of the pitches the Giants did swing at out of the zone were borderline.  The Cardinals, OTOH, swung at 7 pitches that were way out of the strike zone, a few so far out they needed their own zip code.  When you consistently do that, you are not going to get any hittable pitches.  The Giants got a number of hittable pitches and capitalized.

You have to believe that with all the data at their disposal, the Cardinals hitters know this.  Why they consistently did it anyway, only they know.
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Posted: 10/5/2013 2:19 PM

RE: 2013 NLDS Game 3 thread: Cards at Bucs: Sun 10/6 



DTFlush234 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- Catman61 wrote:


DTFlush234 wrote: Tough enough to face Liriano but on the road our chances look slim playing in tHat atmosphere against one hottest pitchers over the last two months.
Last 10 reg season starts:
4-4
4.78 ERA

---------------------------------------------

Starts at home this season:
8-1 W-L
1.47 ERA
26 BB/72 K
.174 Opp Avg
0.96 WHIP

That's not accounting his wild card start versus the Reds.
OK, but you said last two months NOT his home splits
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