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2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12

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Posted: 9/8/2013 10:48 PM

2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


Joe Kelly (8-3, 2.74) vs. Tyler Thornburg (1-1, 2.08). 7:15 PM CT. FOX Sports Midwest and KMOX.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 9/9/2013 7:24 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that the team, in conjunction with Major League Baseball and Bank of America (#troopthanks), is offering all active and retired military, as well as all emergency first responders free tickets to the Wednesday, September 11th and Thursday, September 12th games vs. Milwaukee to commemorate the 12th Anniversary of September 11, 2001.

Active and retired members of the military, as well as emergency first responders may go to cardinals.com/heroes to obtain up to six free tickets to each of the games with the print-at-home option. The offer extends to any active or retired member of the United States Armed Services, as well as any individual who works directly as a first responder (police, firefighter or emergency service personnel), any individual who works for an emergency first responder agency or any individual who has an immediate family member who serves as an emergency first responder or serves in the military.

The military offer is in addition to the club’s daily game policy to provide a free ticket any active member of the U.S. Armed Forces.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 9/12/2013 7:30 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


The only other time the Cards (85-60) were 25 games over .500 in 2013 was after a Lance Lynn win vs. the Phillies on July 25 (62-37).

Cards magic number to clinch playoff berth is nine (combo of StL wins and Nats losses).
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Last edited 9/12/2013 7:51 AM by Domeboys

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Posted: 9/12/2013 9:00 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


Let's go Joe Kelly!  Hopefully Kozma gets the start today given Kelly's GB rate was north of 60% the last two games.  Kelly played with fire his last start, but the one before on 9/1 had decent peripherals so I hope he builds off that one by having a solid K/BB rate to go with all the ground ball outs.  Looking into his pitch F/X data, it seems like he performs better when his change up makes up a higher percentage of his pitches (at the expense of his slider).  I've mostly thought of Kelly as a 2 seam fastball type of guy, but I'll have to take a closer look at his change to see if it's more of an out pitch, or if it's more to set up his fastball (or both I guess).
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Posted: 9/12/2013 9:55 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


The ump at 1B last night will be behind the plate tonight. Hope his eyesight is better.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 10:42 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


All the games are big right now... tied with the dodgers, 2.5 behind the braves with the pirates staying strong right on our heels 1 back.

This is fun... lol... it helps that our schedule has set up nicely.  Seattle is next and they're horrible....outside of their top 2 pitchers.  Iwakuma will be tougher the first game.  Glad we're missing king felix though...
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Posted: 9/12/2013 11:04 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



brianpnoonan wrote: All the games are big right now... tied with the dodgers, 2.5 behind the braves with the pirates staying strong right on our heels 1 back.

This is fun... lol... it helps that our schedule has set up nicely.  Seattle is next and they're horrible....outside of their top 2 pitchers.  Iwakuma will be tougher the first game.  Glad we're missing king felix though...
Actually 2 back of ATL
for home field over the Dodgers or Braves, the Cards will have to finish 1 game ahead as we lost the season series to both teams.

Both COL (3-7) & SEA (3-8) are struggling in Sep but COL does have a good home record (41-31 .569)
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Posted: 9/12/2013 12:28 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


I would settle for finishing ahead of LA, so we can start our NLDS series with them at home rather than on the road.  If we were to finish ahead of both LA and ATL, we'd still be at home, but playing the winner of CIN/PIT, which would be presumably better, since we'd then get the HFA over the winner of LA/ATL in the NLCS.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 1:40 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


The sabermetricians like crdswmn have me worried about Kelley. My eyes tell me he has looked great, but sabermetrics don't lie, so..thanks to that, I am now gonna watch waiting for the other shoe to drop. :)
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Last edited 9/12/2013 1:42 PM by NJGiants11

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Posted: 9/12/2013 1:52 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


Kelly acknowledged that he has been gving up too many hits and walks.  He specifically commented on that following his last start against the Pirates.

There should be no regression if Kelly makes the necessary adjustments.  It is no more a given that the "other shoe will drop" than that Kelly adjusts.  It is probably equally likely that either scenaro occurs.
KBoyer14HOF
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Posted: 9/12/2013 2:32 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 2:37 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



blingboy wrote: It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
plus a little luck

like a few others here, i think kelly's going to improve in the next month or so.... for whatever my opinion is worth.  combine that with some lesser opponents and he could look remarkably similar to his performances in the last month or two (with a lower WHIP to compensate).
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Posted: 9/12/2013 2:47 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



brianpnoonan wrote:
blingboy wrote: It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
plus a little luck

like a few others here, i think kelly's going to improve in the next month or so.... for whatever my opinion is worth.  combine that with some lesser opponents and he could look remarkably similar to his performances in the last month or two (with a lower WHIP to compensate).
Agreed with Noonan and Bling.  Kelly is not a 2.74 ERA pitcher (due to luck), but I believe he is better than a typical 1.4 WHIP due to his coolness when runners are on.  In otherwords, I think his strand rate should be better than average (but not quite as high as luck has driven it to this point).  I think Kelly has the stuff to strike out batters at a slightly higher rate, which will help everything.  The BB rate is something to keep an eye on as sometimes there's only so much a pitcher can do to improve his control.  Step 1 is acknowledging it which Kelly has done so I'm hoping for good things in the future.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:07 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


Weaker opponants might help reduce the WHIP. Since Kelly rejoined the rotation he has started 11 times, and 7 of those vs very tough teams. Dodgers, Reds, Atlanta (twice), Pirates (three times). Even so, over the span of those 11 starts he reduced his ERA from 3.86 to 2.74.

Let's see how it goes tonight. Hopefully, the O will wake up a bit earlier this time.

Anybody know if Yadi is back and if Rosenthal will be in the house?
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:20 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



desmetlax12 wrote:
brianpnoonan wrote:
blingboy wrote: It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
plus a little luck

like a few others here, i think kelly's going to improve in the next month or so.... for whatever my opinion is worth.  combine that with some lesser opponents and he could look remarkably similar to his performances in the last month or two (with a lower WHIP to compensate).
Agreed with Noonan and Bling.  Kelly is not a 2.74 ERA pitcher (due to luck), but I believe he is better than a typical 1.4 WHIP due to his coolness when runners are on.  In otherwords, I think his strand rate should be better than average (but not quite as high as luck has driven it to this point).  I think Kelly has the stuff to strike out batters at a slightly higher rate, which will help everything.  The BB rate is something to keep an eye on as sometimes there's only so much a pitcher can do to improve his control.  Step 1 is acknowledging it which Kelly has done so I'm hoping for good things in the future.
You gotta love these Kelly naysayers. Hey there friend, luck is preparation meeting opportunity. Kelly has been the best starter on the staff for several weeks now. Of course, when he does have a bad outing, I am sure you will be one of the first to jump on here and crow.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:23 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


I need to look into it a little more to analyze it closer but Kelly gives up more hits and walks with 2 outs then he does with either 0 or 1 out. In addition, he has only allowed 1 home run with 2 outs in the inning. It could be a situation where he allows runners but they can't score because of the limited number of outs remaining in the team's at bat.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:43 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



ageelaw wrote:
desmetlax12 wrote:
brianpnoonan wrote:
blingboy wrote: It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
plus a little luck

like a few others here, i think kelly's going to improve in the next month or so.... for whatever my opinion is worth.  combine that with some lesser opponents and he could look remarkably similar to his performances in the last month or two (with a lower WHIP to compensate).
Agreed with Noonan and Bling.  Kelly is not a 2.74 ERA pitcher (due to luck), but I believe he is better than a typical 1.4 WHIP due to his coolness when runners are on.  In otherwords, I think his strand rate should be better than average (but not quite as high as luck has driven it to this point).  I think Kelly has the stuff to strike out batters at a slightly higher rate, which will help everything.  The BB rate is something to keep an eye on as sometimes there's only so much a pitcher can do to improve his control.  Step 1 is acknowledging it which Kelly has done so I'm hoping for good things in the future.
You gotta love these Kelly naysayers. Hey there friend, luck is preparation meeting opportunity. Kelly has been the best starter on the staff for several weeks now. Of course, when he does have a bad outing, I am sure you will be one of the first to jump on here and crow.
Hey troll, do you want to actually provide any insight to why you think Kelly is so great or what about his pitching allows him to sustain his results?  You've quoted me a few times now without offering any real analysis other than to say "Kelly has been the best pitcher on the staff".  You're also going down the path of trying to make me out to be some kind of Kelly hater when I'm actually a big fan of his, but I am also realistic about his capabilities and results.

By the way, you can replace "luck" with "random variation" if that makes you feel any better.  And if it swings the other way where the "random variation" goes against him and he has a bad outing, I'll be quick to point to that as being the reason (as I did with his last start regarding his hits being higher than it should have been due to bad luck).
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:44 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


An interesting stat would be how often a pitcher allows more than 2 hits/walks per inning. It seems like Kelly seldom lets opponants get on a roll and the innings get out of hand. Other starters have had problems with giving them in bunches which is where the damage is inflicted. Lynn, Miller and Wainwright have all had problems with that at various times.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 3:58 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 



ageelaw wrote:
desmetlax12 wrote:
brianpnoonan wrote:
blingboy wrote: It is not just about how many hits and walks he gives up, but when. Kelly has shown the ability to not get rattled, and as a result the hits and walks do not come in clumps, but tend to be spread out. That is why he has an ERA of 2.74 even though his WHIP is 1.407. The concern about regression assumes that all 1.4 WHIPs are the same, which is not the case. There is an element related to the personal make-up of the individual which the stats cannot factor in.
plus a little luck

like a few others here, i think kelly's going to improve in the next month or so.... for whatever my opinion is worth.  combine that with some lesser opponents and he could look remarkably similar to his performances in the last month or two (with a lower WHIP to compensate).
Agreed with Noonan and Bling.  Kelly is not a 2.74 ERA pitcher (due to luck), but I believe he is better than a typical 1.4 WHIP due to his coolness when runners are on.  In otherwords, I think his strand rate should be better than average (but not quite as high as luck has driven it to this point).  I think Kelly has the stuff to strike out batters at a slightly higher rate, which will help everything.  The BB rate is something to keep an eye on as sometimes there's only so much a pitcher can do to improve his control.  Step 1 is acknowledging it which Kelly has done so I'm hoping for good things in the future.
You gotta love these Kelly naysayers. Hey there friend, luck is preparation meeting opportunity. Kelly has been the best starter on the staff for several weeks now. Of course, when he does have a bad outing, I am sure you will be one of the first to jump on here and crow.
Nobody is going to "crow". What I would like to see from Kelly are less walks and hits. Instead of having to make a quality pitch over and over to get out of trouble, how about making the same quality pitch to not get in trouble. Looking for improvement from him tonight he cannot keep this up. Putting base runners on constantly is a recipe for disaster. He will not keep getting out of those jams unscathed forever. I am rooting for him. I have since last year and I appreciate all he has done so far but I am not blind to his shortcomings.
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Posted: 9/12/2013 4:15 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 146 thread: Brewers at Cards, Thu 9/12 


I think Bling and forsch are onto something, although I have no stats to back it up. I too think the other team gets 1 on after 1 out, then the 2nd after 2 outs, and this could be a very unique varaition to why he strands more than the average pitcher.
 photo 891f3be8.jpg

Last edited 9/12/2013 4:16 PM by NJGiants11

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