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2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27

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Posted: 8/25/2013 8:05 PM

2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


Joe Kelly (5‐3, 3.01) vs. Mat Latos (13‐4, 2.93). 7:15 PM CT. FOX Sports Midwest, MLB Network and KMOX.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
Follow both Brian and TCN on Twitter

Last edited 8/25/2013 8:08 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 8/26/2013 4:15 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


Statistically Kelly looks like a guy really ripe for significant regression. He's got an awfully low K/9 rate (5.19), high BB/9 rate (3.63), and really low BAbip (.261). His ERA is an astonishing 2.25 while his xFIP is an ominous 4.37.

At the same time, in live action Kelly looks like the real deal. I was very impressed with what I saw at the ballpark last Thursday against Atlanta and I'm very eager for this start to see how he looks against Cincinnasty.
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Posted: 8/26/2013 4:18 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



DMENS wrote: Statistically Kelly looks like a guy really ripe for significant regression. He's got an awfully low K/9 rate (5.19), high BB/9 rate (3.63), and really low BAbip (.261). His ERA is an astonishing 2.25 while his xFIP is an ominous 4.37.

At the same time, in live action Kelly looks like the real deal. I was very impressed with what I saw at the ballpark last Thursday against Atlanta and I'm very eager for this start to see how he looks against Cincinnasty.
That's too bad because I like him.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 7:17 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


Mighty Joe is coming into his own. He and Wainy will give the Walts a spanking.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 8:48 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



DMENS wrote: Statistically Kelly looks like a guy really ripe for significant regression. He's got an awfully low K/9 rate (5.19), high BB/9 rate (3.63), and really low BAbip (.261). His ERA is an astonishing 2.25 while his xFIP is an ominous 4.37.

At the same time, in live action Kelly looks like the real deal. I was very impressed with what I saw at the ballpark last Thursday against Atlanta and I'm very eager for this start to see how he looks against Cincinnasty.



Kelly seems a LOT like Kyle Lohse to me.

He has much better peripherals as a reliever (8.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) but much worse results, 3.61 ERA in his career, 4.26 ERA this year as a reliever.

He gets a lot of groundballs as a starter as well. Another thing I noticed is that last year, he was 96-97 as a reliever and 94-95 as a starter, while this year he is roughly 95 across the board. Perhaps a good sign of his development?
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Posted: 8/27/2013 9:42 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


aaaa, it's so good to wake up in 1st place!!!  excited to see Kelly keep things moving tonight against dusty and the reds.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 11:26 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



DMENS wrote: Statistically Kelly looks like a guy really ripe for significant regression. He's got an awfully low K/9 rate (5.19), high BB/9 rate (3.63), and really low BAbip (.261). His ERA is an astonishing 2.25 while his xFIP is an ominous 4.37.

At the same time, in live action Kelly looks like the real deal. I was very impressed with what I saw at the ballpark last Thursday against Atlanta and I'm very eager for this start to see how he looks against Cincinnasty.
Ha, ha, Kelly is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his last seven starts. That's all that matters right now, not a bunch of goobadee goop stats. He is gaining confidence with every start and need only improve his location to become a young man headed to a great career as a staring pitcher. What hurler on this team has an arm that is more alive than Kelly's? Tremendous movement on fast ball that touches 97, nasty breaking ball. Yeah, he may have a bad outing, but, has Wainwright and certainly Lynn, who just must, it seems, give up a crooked number in an inning every time he starts, and that is a 3 or 4, not just a 2.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 11:36 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


yup, it was those same goobadee goop stats that said westbrook was not the pitcher his traditional stats said he was.  how'd that turn out?

I like kelly, a lot.  but he's not pitched as well as his traditional stats have indicated.  he has been a huge boost to this team when we really needed him, but he is going to regress.  not b/c he can't keep up this awesome streak, but b/c the awesome streak isn't as awesome as it seems to be.

if you don't like the advancced stats, that's fine.  i'd love to have a discussion about them and why they aren't a true measure of performance.  but to dismiss them as gobadee goop does nothing to further that discussion, and is insulting to those of us who started out with traditional stats, did the research, and have embraced the saber stats.

xFIP is a wonderful, reliable tool showing a baseline for the expected effectiveness of a pitcher.  it is far from goobadee goop.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 11:40 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



duckymedwick7 wrote: yup, it was those same goobadee goop stats that said westbrook was not the pitcher his traditional stats said he was.  how'd that turn out?

I like kelly, a lot.  but he's not pitched as well as his traditional stats have indicated.  he has been a huge boost to this team when we really needed him, but he is going to regress.  not b/c he can't keep up this awesome streak, but b/c the awesome streak isn't as awesome as it seems to be.

if you don't like the advancced stats, that's fine.  i'd love to have a discussion about them and why they aren't a true measure of performance.  but to dismiss them as gobadee goop does nothing to further that discussion, and is insulting to those of us who started out with traditional stats, did the research, and have embraced the saber stats.

xFIP is a wonderful, reliable tool showing a baseline for the expected effectiveness of a pitcher.  it is far from goobadee goop.
The man used the phrase "goobadee goop".  What kind of discussion do you think you are going to have?

Last edited 8/27/2013 11:41 AM by crdswmn

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Posted: 8/27/2013 11:45 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


I choose to respect others even when they don't respect the things i believe in and feel are important.  you are free to mock him for his disrespect for saber stats.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 11:57 AM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



duckymedwick7 wrote: I choose to respect others even when they don't respect the things i believe in and feel are important.  you are free to mock him for his disrespect for saber stats.
You can call it mocking if you like, I call it experience.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 12:49 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 




---------------------------------------------
--- crdswmn wrote:


The man used the phrase "goobadee goop".  What kind of discussion do you think you are going to have?

---------------------------------------------

Haha!!! Priceless. You'd better never leave us, Crdswmn! Duckaroo.....tell me you didn't snicker just a titch on that one.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:22 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


The fact of the matter is that Kelly is a hot pitcher right now and all that matters is how he fares tonight, not a bunch of numbers that includes the times when he was a reliever and not getting much work. Obviously it seems that he was destined to be a starting pitcher and he is now getting his chance. And I deny the allegation that goobadee goop is a dumb phrase and I resent the alligator!excited
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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:23 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


I thought this would be the toughest game of the three to perhaps win.  Latos has been dealing and i'm sure he'll bear down after the Reds left the first game slip away.

Rat
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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:31 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:53 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


We might as well beat 'em again.  Kelly's confidence has to be sky high after his last five starts.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:54 PM

RE: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



ageelaw wrote: The fact of the matter is that Kelly is a hot pitcher right now and all that matters is how he fares tonight, not a bunch of numbers that includes the times when he was a reliever and not getting much work. Obviously it seems that he was destined to be a starting pitcher and he is now getting his chance. And I deny the allegation that goobadee goop is a dumb phrase and I resent the alligator!excited
Those numbers don't include times when he was a reliever. They are only for games he started. And no one is saying he will regress tonight. Anything can happen on any given night. But the fact of the matter is that Kelly has been thriving in spite of some highly obscure peripherals that mean more than just goobadee goop.

Only Jake Westbrook has a worse K/9, BB/9, or xFIP and no one has a lower BAbip. Those aren't made up numbers. They are real facts. What they tell us is that Kelly has pretty much been really lucky so far. If he doesn't correct the K and BB rates before that BAbip normalizes, luck is going to make the Ferrari look like a Geo.

Now don't get me wrong here, I'm not at all saying that Kelly is a bad pitcher. Only Adam Wainwright has left me feeling more confident about our chances to win on any given day. I also think Joe is better than the K and BB rates he's throwing right now. Those should improve. But he is on an unsustainable path and if they don't, he's in a lot of trouble.

(Interestingly, Lynn is the exact opposite story)
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Posted: 8/27/2013 4:55 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


Here's to burying the Reds tonight! Go Cards! biggrin

"Streamers rule! Long live the stream!" - Adam Copeland
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Posted: 8/27/2013 5:00 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 



RatsBuddy wrote: I thought this would be the toughest game of the three to perhaps win.  Latos has been dealing and i'm sure he'll bear down after the Reds left the first game slip away.
I agree Rat. I would be absolutely thrilled with a win against Latos. And the Reds would really be sweating if they had to head in to Wednesday facing a sweep with Wainwright on the mound. We've got a good chance tonight to really put the squeeze on them. Go Cards!
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Posted: 8/27/2013 5:56 PM

Re: 2013 MLB game 132 thread: Reds at Cards, Tue 8/27 


Interesting matchup with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball against another hot pitcher for the Reds himself but he also has a track record of it.
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