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Cliff Lee Trade Thread

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Posted: 7/30/2013 9:40 AM

Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


There seems to be enough smoke out there to start a Cliff Lee thread. I don't know what to make of it. He is obviously an elite pitcher but the cost would be tremendous. It would probably cost us Martinez, Kelly, Scrabble, and maybe another prospect, not to mention his $25 million salary and his advancing age (35?).

What do you guys think?
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Posted: 7/30/2013 9:50 AM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


I would like to have him...depends on cost really, but sounds to be like he staying out East.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 9:58 AM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


It would cost more than Martinez, Kelly, Scrabble etc. They want three or four of your best prospects so try Martinez, Wacha, and Wong plus you'll have to pay all the money left on the contract. Lee is an elite pitcher but the price is enormous and isn't worth even negotiating with the Phillies GM.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 10:04 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


I agree with DT.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 10:04 AM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


i honestly don't know where to begin and end a few of these discusions... let's be honest.  If we got lee... and a stud reliever (which they happen to have as well... papelbon)... we'd be hands down the Series favorite.

This might sound terrible, but i could live with that trade -- the first one proposed here -- ( if it was for lee AND papelbon or rollins.  I know rollins isnt what he was but he is still an upgrade (albeit expensive).

cash is a big, big consideration at that point though.

how big depends on how viable you think it is that we can trade lee in the offseason.  there's absolutely nothing that says we have to keep him past this year.

note:  i said live with... probably wouldn't be happy with it though.

Last edited 7/30/2013 10:05 AM by brianpnoonan

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Posted: 7/30/2013 10:20 AM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



DTFlush234 wrote: It would cost more than Martinez, Kelly, Scrabble etc. They want three or four of your best prospects so try Martinez, Wacha, and Wong plus you'll have to pay all the money left on the contract. Lee is an elite pitcher but the price is enormous and isn't worth even negotiating with the Phillies GM.
Phils are not going to get that package and not pay any of his salary.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 10:30 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


The rumored asking price is of course outrageous and nobody is going to bite on that yet. But it will come down. I just wonder how far it will come down. I actually am in a minority that believes (on a hunch) Mo wants Cliff Lee and is going to try and steal him just before the deadline if he can keep down the cost.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 10:43 AM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


Why is it that when fans "want" a player, they assume their players are sacred cows and everyone elses' are not worth a bucket of baseballs?  And they shouldn't have to give up their best prospects to get anyone?  Is it just homerism or naivete or what?

I am not proposing a trade for Cliff Lee.  But you can't get an elite player without giving up something valuable, you just can't.  Mo knows this, he even said as much to the PD the other day.  It isn't whether you have to give up top guys, it's how many.  Otherwise you never get anyone worth having.

If even one person thinks Mo can get Cliff Lee without giving up any one of Taveras, Wong, Wacha, or Martinez, you are living in a fantasy world.  If you want him, start with at least one of them (more likely two) and go from there. 

I wouldn't be sad if we didn't trade for him at all, but let's be realistic.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:05 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


Is your comment just a general rant or overflow from another thread? I don't see anyone making outlandish statements about the value of players in this particular conversation.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:11 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



DMENS wrote: Is your seemingly disgruntled comment overflow from another thread or something? I don't see anyone making unrealistic comments in this thread.
It is not a "disgruntled" comment, I don't know where you get that from.  It is a comment based on things I have been hearing since last night about trading for Cliff Lee.  Everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows to get him, and any GM who demands their sacred cows is an idiot. It doesn't work that way, that is all I am saying.  The Phillies are not going to take the players you want to get rid of, they will take the players you want to keep.

Last edited 7/30/2013 11:12 AM by crdswmn

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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:16 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


The problem for the Phillies is Lee's contract. They can have top prospects and pay part of the contract or they can have lesser quality prospects and be relieved of his contract. I don't see how they can get both but if a team is desperate enough maybe they will. I hope this not the case with the Cards.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:29 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


6 years of cost controlled Martinez and Wacha seems about equal value to 3 years of Cliff Lee at $25 million per year considering Cliff Lee has been a top 5 pitcher the last 5 years and shows no sign of declining this year. He has pitched over 200 innings every year in that stretch as well. A front end combination of Lee and Wainwright would be tremendous in the post season. A pitcher like Lee also helps to cement the rotation and preserve the bullpen.

The problem as I see it how much does he really help our world series odds this year? Let's assume we win the division, what would our world series chances be with our current team? A short series in baseball is a crap shoot. We would need to win 3 series to win the championship. If it is a 50/50 proposition to win each series our odds of winning it all would be 12.5%. Let's say adding Cliff Lee gives us a 60/40 edge in each series (I think that is a bit generous) we would be looking at a 21.6% chance to win it all. That is a 9% edge this year if you allow for my goofy math. Going forward in '14 and '15 the value of having Lee instead of Martinez and Wacha declines as Lee becomes less effective even if Wacha and/or Martinez never make it in the big league.

The real risk comes from the potential of Martinez and Wacha. Even if they don't become stars they have incredible value as league average starters with cost control for the next 5 years. They represent not only the ability to make up 2/5 of the rotation but also the flexibility to sign guys like Wainwright, Molina, and Craig to long term deals. Unless the payroll is raised significantly Lee may prevent guys like Miller or Tavares to be locked up long term in the coming years.

Looking at the rotation next year we could have Waino/Lee/Miller/Lynn/(Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, someone else?) That is top 5 in baseball, but I would contend that Waino/Miller/Lynn/ with two of Martinez, Wacha, Kelly, Lyons, Garcia, free agent could be just as good and have more depth.

If a deal for Lee involves two of Martinez, Wacha, and Wong I guess I would be fine with it (I haven't seen much of Wong so I didn't include him in the analysis above but it appears he has about equal value). If we had to give up more I would obviously be upset, less and I would be all in favor. I have an irrational infatuation with Tavares and wouldn't give him up for anyone not named Harper, Trout, Harvey, or Machado.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:56 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



crdswmn wrote: It is not a "disgruntled" comment, I don't know where you get that from.  It is a comment based on things I have been hearing since last night about trading for Cliff Lee.  Everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows to get him, and any GM who demands their sacred cows is an idiot. It doesn't work that way, that is all I am saying.  The Phillies are not going to take the players you want to get rid of, they will take the players you want to keep.
So to answer my question, it is in fact overflow from another thread. Careful with the words "everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows" because that obviously isn't true, and the attitude certainly hasn't manifested in this particular thread. While your point is correct, it is out of place in this discussion thus far.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 11:57 AM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


The Phillies have a load of undesirable contracts weighing down a sinking/aging franchise. 

*Utley comes off the books this year, but he'll be 35 so his marketability is suspect.
*Doc IS 36 and yesterdays superstar.
*Ryan Howard--probably no comment needed.
*Rollins contract is modest by comparison to the others; but his stats are modest too.
*Hamels will be 30 and about to be obscenely rich.  Performance is down.  He can recover; but given the enormity of his contract and my Biogensis (sp?) paranoia (juiced stats?), I'd stay away.
*Paplebon brings an amount of acclaimed clubhouse toxicity.
*Lee is still able to perform but, given he'll be 35, for how long?

IMO, the Phillies need to unblock payroll and aren't in a position to be choosey.

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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:00 PM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 


But Waino, Yadi, and Craig are signed to "long" term deals. Waino until 2018 and both Molina & Craig until 2017 with options for 2018.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:00 PM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



DMENS wrote:
crdswmn wrote: It is not a "disgruntled" comment, I don't know where you get that from.  It is a comment based on things I have been hearing since last night about trading for Cliff Lee.  Everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows to get him, and any GM who demands their sacred cows is an idiot. It doesn't work that way, that is all I am saying.  The Phillies are not going to take the players you want to get rid of, they will take the players you want to keep.
So to answer my question, it is in fact overflow from another thread. Careful with the words "everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows" because that obviously isn't true, and the attitude certainly hasn't manifested in this particular thread. While your point is correct, it is out of place in this discussion thus far.
Okay, fair enough.  Let me ask you this, would you give up at least one of Taveras, Wong, Wacha, or Martinez for Cliff Lee?  How about two?  Would you add Adams or Rosenthal into the mix?
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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:03 PM

Re: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 




---------------------------------------------
--- TCRedbird wrote:


DTFlush234 wrote: It would cost more than Martinez, Kelly, Scrabble etc. They want three or four of your best prospects so try Martinez, Wacha, and Wong plus you'll have to pay all the money left on the contract. Lee is an elite pitcher but the price is enormous and isn't worth even negotiating with the Phillies GM.
Phils are not going to get that package and not pay any of his salary.

---------------------------------------------

That's what Ruben Amaro is demanding.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:06 PM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



crdswmn wrote:
DMENS wrote: Is your seemingly disgruntled comment overflow from another thread or something? I don't see anyone making unrealistic comments in this thread.
It is not a "disgruntled" comment, I don't know where you get that from.  It is a comment based on things I have been hearing since last night about trading for Cliff Lee.  Everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows to get him, and any GM who demands their sacred cows is an idiot. It doesn't work that way, that is all I am saying.  The Phillies are not going to take the players you want to get rid of, they will take the players you want to keep.

I have no desire to trade for Cliff Lee. Hence, my other comment about Mozeliak unplugging his phone (turn it off assuming its a cell phone)
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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:07 PM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



crdswmn wrote:
DMENS wrote:
crdswmn wrote: It is not a "disgruntled" comment, I don't know where you get that from.  It is a comment based on things I have been hearing since last night about trading for Cliff Lee.  Everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows to get him, and any GM who demands their sacred cows is an idiot. It doesn't work that way, that is all I am saying.  The Phillies are not going to take the players you want to get rid of, they will take the players you want to keep.
So to answer my question, it is in fact overflow from another thread. Careful with the words "everyone wants Cliff Lee, but no one wants to give up their sacred cows" because that obviously isn't true, and the attitude certainly hasn't manifested in this particular thread. While your point is correct, it is out of place in this discussion thus far.
Okay, fair enough.  Let me ask you this, would you give up at least one of Taveras, Wong, Wacha, or Martinez for Cliff Lee?  How about two?  Would you add Adams or Rosenthal into the mix?
I would give up one of those possible 2 depending on how much $$ the Phils plan on covering, if they cover none I would start with martinez + 2-3 maybe 4 other specs.
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Posted: 7/30/2013 12:22 PM

RE: Cliff Lee Trade Thread 



crdswmn wrote: Okay, fair enough.  Let me ask you this, would you give up at least one of Taveras, Wong, Wacha, or Martinez for Cliff Lee?  How about two?  Would you add Adams or Rosenthal into the mix?
Well the question you are asking is the point of the thread and I've intentionally not commented anywhere on what mix of players I would be comfortable trading because I just don't know, nor am I informed enough to engage in an intelligible debate. So I'm not going to bite on your effort to single me out and poke holes in my opinion.

What I do understand is that it would likely take some combination of those guys to acquire Lee and what I'm watching for is not necessarily who but how many.
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