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All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half

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Posted: 7/17/2013 11:06 AM

All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


Now that we have two days of no baseball, this would be a good time to talk about expectations for the second half.

It's trade season, and that topic will occupy most people for the next couple of weeks.  Honestly, I don't expect the Cardinals to do much in the trade market.  I think it will be like last season, one off the radar trade for a minor piece, and that's it.  I don't think Mozeliak has the will or the stomach for a splashy trade involving top prospects.  And frankly, neither do I.  I don't think we have a glaring need.

I think the angst over the starting pitching is a little over done.  Lynn and Miller are likely to bounce back in the second half.  The fifth starter issue can be solved internally.  Our bullpen is fine.  A trade for a bench bat may be all that is necessary.

I don't necessarily agree with the argument that the overabundance of arms will require some of them to be traded.  Things like that tend to work themselves out. There is already a fifth spot to fill, and I have a feeling that Westbrook's elbow troubles are not over. 

It's going to be an interesting second half, and I am looking forward to it.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 11:27 AM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I was thinking about starting a thread like this myself but your timing is perfect. I have the complete opposite opinion as you know about the starting pitching. Had an ominous dream last night about Lynn's next start. He gave up a 7 spot in the 2nd inning. I am very worried about both Miller and Lynn. Lance is hit or miss but takes an awful lot of pitches to get through his innings. Miller has a high water mark of slightly more than 150 IP. He is currently at 105 and has not looked good in his last few starts. We just don't know about Carp yet, i think he is the key. Even if he comes back i imagine his innings will be built up slowly putting more pressure on the bullpen. I put nothing past that guy though and it would not surprise me if he pitches the rest of the season in St.Louis. A starting pitcher is needed more than anything IMO but i do not expect it to be a high end guy that is acquired. I think it could be a steal if we acquire De La Rosa. Colorado may feel grateful for us giving them Boggs and Ottavino basically for free.

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 7/17/2013 11:39 AM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I think it all depends on price and who's available.

If someone like Tulo is available and we don't have to give up anything overly major (or it's something we feel we can swallow)?

Uh... yeah.  He fills what is by far the biggest hole on this team and all it costs is essentially the money we saved from pujols.  We should have enough young talent the next 3-4 years to balance it out.

There are almost always ways to improve your team.  Even if we don't have an obvious major hole, having a stud #2 behind wainright might be another way to go.  Heck, i could see us grabbing a stud bullpen arm if the price is right.  Seems to me like running out rosie and mujica every other day is going to get old really, really quick.  Could put siegrist or someone else in that role internally too.  I do know that Matheny is going to have to bend a bit to get some guys some rest down the stretch regardless.  I want these guys healthy in that stretch in august/sept when we play the pirates, braves, and cinci virtually everyday.

As always, it depends on price.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 11:56 AM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I don't know what to expect from the Cards in the trade market, but I think I tend to side with crdswmn that the Cards will be pretty quiet.  However, it's funny to look back at the Mujica trade as being a minor piece and now he turns out to be an all star closer!  Honestly at the time I saw it as somewhat of a salary dump of a minor leaguer with a major league contract and we were just happy to get someone in return that could be on a major league roster.  That could go down as one of Mo's best trades.

I think the story of the second half will be if the Cards can continue their clutch hitting as that has been the driving factor for our run production given a lower level of home runs.  The approach seems right, lets just hope the opposing pitchers don't figure something out to slow the Cards bats down.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 1:24 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


A thought on the trade front... it's possible someone is interested in Salas which is why he got called up again.  Wanted to see him against big league hitters.

Reality is we do have a lot of young arms and Salas is further on the arb clock.

Don't see any reason why they wouldn't be anything but impressed with Butler so far.  The "regular work" thing is valid, but not THAT valid.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 1:29 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



brianpnoonan wrote: A thought on the trade front... it's possible someone is interested in Salas which is why he got called up again.  Wanted to see him against big league hitters.

Reality is we do have a lot of young arms and Salas is further on the arb clock.

Don't see any reason why they wouldn't be anything but impressed with Butler so far.  The "regular work" thing is valid, but not THAT valid.
Was a call up of Salas announced?  I didn't see it.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 1:35 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I thought i remembered seeing it somewhere, but now that you ask I didn't see anything official, so take it with a grain of salt.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 1:42 PM

RE: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I'll start things off by going on vcation. No computer, no smart phone. Don't plan on watching any TV or listening to radio for a week and a half. I'll reconnect just before the trade deadline.

Last edited 7/17/2013 1:53 PM by blingboy

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Posted: 7/17/2013 1:46 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


We are in a nice position where we can be "picky" about making a deal. The club is strong enough to where we could very well win without doing anything, yet you always are looking to see if something might give you a bit of an edge.

At this point in time, Colorado is going to be more in the "buyers" camp than "sellers", so I don't see Tulo or De La Rosa going anywhere. What will make or break them could be their 10 games coming off the break, where they play the Cubs, Marlins and Brewers at home. They feel they can win perhaps 8 of those 10 and be right there and make a push for the west division title, as that division is there for the taking right now although everyone expects the Dodgers to be the hot team in the second half.

If the Rockies come out and go even 5-5 on this homestand, they might change their mindset and become sellers, but still it would take a monumental effort to pry Tulo away.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:00 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


Cards have a big hole at SS and it needs to be filled.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:12 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



TCRedbird wrote: Cards have a big hole at SS and it needs to be filled.
I completely agree. Do you think Kozma might hit better off the bench and strengthen our depth or should he be included in any trade. Any chance he could hit for Jay and then play an inning or two in center? Could he be the right handed bench bat we are searching for?

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:14 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


The big question is how does the Cardinal management regard the prospects. Would we have predicted that the first four pitchers to be brought up would be Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez from AA, John Gast and Tyler Lyons. I suspect that the Cardinal brass has a different impression than the pundits and the members on this board. I generally shudder when we talk of trading top prospects.

Brings to mind.

John Smoltz (66.5 WAR) for Doyle Alexander (1.6 WAR)

Jeff Bagwell (79.5 WAR) for Larry Anderson (4.2 WAR)

Lou Brock (45.4 WAR) for Ernie Broglio (-.9 WAR)

Steve Carlton (67.4 WAR) for Rick Wise (21.7 WAR)

Or way back

Mordecai Brown (53.7 WAR) for Jack Taylor (12.9 WAR)

Paul Derringer (33.9 WAR) for Leo Durocher (3.7 WAR)

or more recently

Dan Haren (30.2 WAR) for Mark Mulder (.6 WAR)

The trick is trading someone you evaluate less than the other team does for someone you evaluate higher than the other team. I think Walt J did a good job of that until the Haren trade and certainly at this point in time we did that in the Cox for Mujica trade.

Last edited 7/17/2013 2:16 PM by SoonerinNC

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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:15 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



cardinalnationhouston wrote:
TCRedbird wrote: Cards have a big hole at SS and it needs to be filled.
I completely agree. Do you think Kozma might hit better off the bench and strengthen our depth or should he be included in any trade. Any chance he could hit for Jay and then play an inning or two in center? Could he be the right handed bench bat we are searching for?
No he worse hitter than Jay.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:17 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



TCRedbird wrote: Cards have a big hole at SS and it needs to be filled.

They don't have a "big hole" at shortstop. More accurately, Kozma has been a "replacement player" so far in 2013. He hasn't hurt the team, but hasn't contributed a lot either. But on a team where you have the likes of Molina, Craig, Carpenter, Holliday and Beltran in your lineup, you can afford to have a replacement player somewhere. If it's short, you want a guy that can make all the plays and whatever you get at bat is a bonus. The Cardinals thrived for a couple of years with a guy like that in Dal Maxvill.

Pete hit that monsterous homer in Arizona back in April, and hasn't hit one since. That surprises me as I would have thought he'd have maybe half a dozen or so by now.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:17 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



SoonerinNC wrote: The big question is how does the Cardinal management regard the prospects. Would have predicted that the first four pitchers to be brought up would be Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez from AA, John Gast and Tyler Lyons. I suspect that the Cardinal brass has a different impression than the pundits and the members on this board. I generally shudder when we talk of trading top prospects.

Brings to mind.

John Smoltz (66.5 WAR) for Doyle Alexander (1.6 WAR)

Jeff Bagwell (79.5 WAR) for Larry Anderson (4.2 WAR)

Lou Brock (45.4 WAR) for Ernie Broglio (-.9 WAR)

Steve Carlton (67.4 WAR) for Rick Wise (21.7 WAR)

Or way back

Mordecai Brown (53.7 WAR) for Jack Taylor (12.9 WAR)

Paul Derringer (33.9 WAR) for Leo Durocher (3.7 WAR)

or more recently

Dan Haren (30.2 WAR) for Mark Mulder (.6 WAR)

The trick is trading someone you evaluate less than the other team does for someone you evaluate higher than the other team. I think Walt J did a good job of that until the Haren trade and certainly at this point in time we did that in the Cox for Mujica trade.
I'm generally not in favor of trading away top prospects unless we are blown away by an offer.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 2:37 PM

RE: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


I would not trade a top prospect for anyone who has turned 30 yrs old. Post-PED reality.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 3:00 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 




---------------------------------------------
--- SoonerinNC wrote:

The big question is how does the Cardinal management regard the prospects. Would we have predicted that the first four pitchers to be brought up would be Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez from AA, John Gast and Tyler Lyons. I suspect that the Cardinal brass has a different impression than the pundits and the members on this board. I generally shudder when we talk of trading top prospects.

Brings to mind.

John Smoltz (66.5 WAR) for Doyle Alexander (1.6 WAR)

Jeff Bagwell (79.5 WAR) for Larry Anderson (4.2 WAR)

Lou Brock (45.4 WAR) for Ernie Broglio (-.9 WAR)

Steve Carlton (67.4 WAR) for Rick Wise (21.7 WAR)

Or way back

Mordecai Brown (53.7 WAR) for Jack Taylor (12.9 WAR)

Paul Derringer (33.9 WAR) for Leo Durocher (3.7 WAR)

or more recently

Dan Haren (30.2 WAR) for Mark Mulder (.6 WAR)

The trick is trading someone you evaluate less than the other team does for someone you evaluate higher than the other team. I think Walt J did a good job of that until the Haren trade and certainly at this point in time we did that in the Cox for Mujica trade.

---------------------------------------------


OTOH, the prospects we gave up for Eckersley, Stottlemyre and McGwire pretty much faded into oblivion after the trade. Does anybody remember Steve Montgomery?
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Posted: 7/17/2013 3:55 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


How about the prospects we gave up for Matt Holliday?

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 7/17/2013 4:23 PM

Re: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 



cardinalnationhouston wrote: How about the prospects we gave up for Matt Holliday?

I don't even know who we gave up other than Brett Wallace, who hasn't done much.
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Posted: 7/17/2013 4:44 PM

RE: All Star break lull. Let's talk about the second half 


There was Dan Haren for Mark Mulder. Lets try to avoid something like that.
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