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little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again

Posted: 3/22/2013 7:21 AM

little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


if he's going to retain a spot on the team, he has to hit....especailly with Matt Adams at 1st base (with lineup changes..Craig to OF)) and and Oscar (almost ready)

I know it's spring training and
Cards just upped John Jay's salary...and he can field, but

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Posted: 3/22/2013 7:46 AM

RE: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


You say "again." When were the other times Jay was not hitting? Whenever they were, he recovered, right?

You think Jay is going to lose his spot on the team over spring training results? Then Beltran and Holliday should really worry as they have even lower batting averages.

His salary increase was extremely modest. His pay is tiny compared to the established stars.

There is no "h" in his name. Jon Jay.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Last edited 3/22/2013 7:49 AM by Domeboys

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Posted: 3/22/2013 9:43 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


What part of "Spring Training results mean squat" don't people understand?  banghead
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Posted: 3/22/2013 11:03 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


He should be fine. The only guy I can recall who had shown over a few seasons that he was a good hitter and then lost the ability to hit, other than it being due to advanced age, was Garrett Atkins. He was a solid hitter with power for the Rockies for a few seasons, then suddenly seemed to just lose it.

And he never got it back. He went to Baltimore and still couldn't hit, and I don't think he's even playing anymore.
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Posted: 3/22/2013 11:32 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


I guess you-all forgot he didn't hit at the end of the season (last year/2012), nor in the 2012 playoffs...

simply cannot have a lead off player not getting on base (one way or the other).....Carpenter gets on base, the spot can be filled...

all this is emphasized because of the development of Matt Adams, and Oscar (and resultant line-up changes associated with getting those two players on the field)....
those “two boys” are going to hit, and when they are struggling they will drive the ball to the fence resulting in more opportunities….

Jon Jay struggles, it’s a weak fly ball or a weak grounder….
I get the arbitration numbers and signing him to a reasonable contract (3.25Mill or something),  but

 

I love Jon Jay,
but I will love him more it he’s on 2nd base ready to rock…lead off player has to get on base

Last edited 3/22/2013 11:33 AM by hardheaded

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Posted: 3/22/2013 11:46 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



hardheaded wrote:

I guess you-all forgot he didn't hit at the end of the season (last year/2012), nor in the 2012 playoffs...

simply cannot have a lead off player not getting on base (one way or the other).....Carpenter gets on base, the spot can be filled...

all this is emphasized because of the development of Matt Adams, and Oscar (and resultant line-up changes associated with getting those two players on the field)....
those “two boys” are going to hit, and when they are struggling they will drive the ball to the fence resulting in more opportunities….

Jon Jay struggles, it’s a weak fly ball or a weak grounder….
I get the arbitration numbers and signing him to a reasonable contract (3.25Mill or something),  but

 

I love Jon Jay,
but I will love him more it he’s on 2nd base ready to rock…lead off player has to get on base


I agree with your premise. A lead-off hitter should get on base.  Jay has a pretty big hole in his game in that he has a 6.5% BB rate...below average.  However, this really only affects him when he isn't hitting.

He is just the kind of player that is gonna look really good when he's on and really bad when he's off.

He has improved his OBP in other, unconventional ways, such as getting hit by pitches (15 last year) and putting himself in better position to score by stealing bases (19) and perhaps sacrificing himself a lot.

He had a .373 OBP last year so I think he deserves a little slack here.
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Posted: 3/22/2013 1:04 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


Point "very much" taken, but
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:13 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



bicyclemike wrote: He should be fine. The only guy I can recall who had shown over a few seasons that he was a good hitter and then lost the ability to hit, other than it being due to advanced age, was Garrett Atkins. He was a solid hitter with power for the Rockies for a few seasons, then suddenly seemed to just lose it.

And he never got it back. He went to Baltimore and still couldn't hit, and I don't think he's even playing anymore.
Another one was Chone Figgins. He was just released again the other day.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:16 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



PadsFS wrote: He had a .373 OBP last year so I think he deserves a little slack here.
You made the point very well, but here is a point of reference to help drive it home. The collective leadoff men across the National League last season (including Jay) had a .318 OBP.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:47 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


Jay gets hit by pitches a lot.  That booty of his is quite a large target.  tongue
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:49 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



Domeboys wrote:
PadsFS wrote: He had a .373 OBP last year so I think he deserves a little slack here.
You made the point very well, but here is a point of reference to help drive it home. The collective leadoff men across the National League last season (including Jay) had a .318 OBP.

I think that speaks to how pitiful it is that some managers stick to their guns with guys that clearly shouldn't lead off anymore. Such as Matheny did with Furcal and Dusty Baker did with Stubbs/Cozart also.

Jay is a good lead off.  If Jay's hitting continues to flounder into May, perhaps we could shift him down in the lineup. As Hardheaded mentioned, middle infielder Matt Carpenter would be a fantastic table setter and if it comes to Taveras moving up to the MLB, then he could take some of the CF duties from Jay at that time.

Taveras, though, has similar BB% issues, even getting worse from A-ball to AA-ball to AFL-ball. Also he has been worse at walking in spring training compared with AA. 

A-ball - 9.2%
AA-ball - 7.9%
AFL-ball - 0%
SP Train - 5.2%

Caveat: 7.9% is right around average so he should be fine. Also, Taveras knocks the crap out of the ball hitting .386, .321, .307, and .296 at each of these stops...WITH power.

I'm really excited to see how he performs in AAA with Adams hitting behind him in the lineup (if Adams stays down)

Nothing has been better than having the WBC take Beltran out and allowing Taveras some much needed ML spring training exposure.
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Posted: 3/22/2013 4:40 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


From MLB.com:

Matheny attributed Jay's struggles at the plate this spring -- he is hitting just .208 -- to shifts in Jay's mechanics. Matheny said Jay has been trying to shorten his swing somewhat, and that's been Jay's focus more so than putting up strong Spring Training numbers.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 3/22/2013 7:05 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


I am somewhere in the middle of this topic.  I love Jon Jay.  I have no doubt he will hit and get on base again.  And I am pretty sure he isn't going to lose his roster spot to Oscar Taveras.

However, I do think I would make Shane Robinson our regular CF until he cools off. In other words, ride the hot hand while it's hot.  I think he has earned it.
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Posted: 3/23/2013 12:22 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


Shane is having a great spring and I'm sure he's going to make the roster over tavarez but the time is now for jay to make his mark. I think he's a talent but his Postseason have left a sour taste in the mouth of many fans. He's a key in this season on offense being a success.getting on base in front of the table setters is key

 Suggested U. of Illinois mascots

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Posted: 3/23/2013 1:20 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


A rather virulent case of "what have you done for me lately" going on here.

Jon Jay is the center fielder.  Shane Robinson is his backup.  And that's not going to change anytime soon.
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Posted: 3/23/2013 6:43 AM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



hardheaded wrote: Point "very much" taken, but

There is no but's about it, if you are going to go off Spring training results the Cards are in a world of trouble this year....

Jay is fine, plus who actually is good enough to play CF that is on the Cards roster right now that is better
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Posted: 3/24/2013 1:20 PM

RE: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


Considering his road split of .224/.289/.301/.590 I think he still has a lot to prove. If he hits .231 in June and July like last season, Oscar will be playing center and Jay will be the 4th OF.
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Posted: 3/24/2013 1:29 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


Not likely.

And, FWIW, Jay has been on base all three times today so far.
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Posted: 3/24/2013 1:41 PM

RE: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 



mbusapp wrote: Considering his road split of .224/.289/.301/.590 I think he still has a lot to prove. If he hits .231 in June and July like last season, Oscar will be playing center and Jay will be the 4th OF.

Man, .224! That's awful....how about his road splits from 2011?

.305/.360/.431/.791

Or how about 2010?

.287/.333/.395/.729

yeah....nothing to see here...he is streaky though, I'll give you that.
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Posted: 3/24/2013 1:48 PM

Re: little concerned; John Jay not hitting, again 


I think that while the Cards would like Jay to hit a little more on the road than he did last season, they're more concerned with his keeping up the stellar defense.

We've got a long history of great defensive center fielders, from Terry Moore and Curt Flood to Willie McGee and Jim Edmonds... and I'm glad we've got Jay out there.  I spent too many years in the 1970's watching the likes of Jose Cardenal, Jose Cruz (before he was a star for Houston), Willie Crawford and Tony Scott trying to handle CF for us, and I think it's no coincidence that in the 1950's and 1970's, when we didn't have great defensive center fielders, the Cards struggled.
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