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Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me

Posted: 2/22/2013 8:59 AM

Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


Why we're not re-signing this guy?  I just don't get it and I could use input from some wiser heads.  Carpenter gone.  Lynn, cross our fingers.  Is Garcia completely healthy?  Westbrook is Westbrook.  Wainwright of course is aces.  The three or four youngsters are very talented, but still unproven at major league level.

Is it a signing, contract problem?  Why not do what it takes to hedge our bets by signing a proven big league pitcher? Wasn't Lohse our best and most consistent starter last year?   What is Mo's position on this and is it likely to change?

Thanks in advance.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:11 AM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



Brosky wrote: Why we're not re-signing this guy?  I just don't get it and I could use input from some wiser heads.  Carpenter gone.  Lynn, cross our fingers.  Is Garcia completely healthy?  Westbrook is Westbrook.  Wainwright of course is aces.  The three or four youngsters are very talented, but still unproven at major league level.

Is it a signing, contract problem?  Why not do what it takes to hedge our bets by signing a proven big league pitcher? Wasn't Lohse our best and most consistent starter last year?   What is Mo's position on this and is it likely to change?

Thanks in advance.
Will lose the draft pick and we don't need him.  Keep the money for Wainwright.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:40 AM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



crdswmn wrote: Will lose the draft pick and we don't need him.  Keep the money for Wainwright.
Well said. That's the best and quickest way to sum up the answer.

Also see: the long list of young talented arms itching make the bigs their home. We can probably match or come close to Lohse's production for a fraction of the cost with these guys, meaning the cost of adding Lohse is too high.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:40 AM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


I doubt there is anybody on this site with more confidence in Lohse than me. I think Lohse will have another great (but less than All-Star / Ace level) season in 2013. I think the Cardinals would be better off with Lohse in the rotation in 2013 (although for 2014 and beyond it would better to rely on the kids in 2013).

Having said that, I do not see a match between Lohse and the Cardinals. In the most extreme circumstance, the Cardinals would not want to sign Lohse for more than two seasons (unless they give up any hope of signing Wainwright), and I can't see Lohse signing for less than three years.

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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:48 AM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


At some point you have to play your young talent.  If you aren't going to play guys because they are unproven at a major league level then they will never play.  Lohse had a career year and it is possible that if we sign him to one year then we may never get anything for him if he doens't reproduce those numbers.  The bigger thing than the pick is 1.7mil that gets added to your draft purse, this allows you to draft and sign guys that others wont have the resources to do.  It's time to let these young guns throw, the Cards are correct in thier approach.  We had 17 guys in our minors that have thrown 95+mph.  Let em throw, they have a higher upside than Lohse ever will!
Brosky wrote: Why we're not re-signing this guy?  I just don't get it and I could use input from some wiser heads.  Carpenter gone.  Lynn, cross our fingers.  Is Garcia completely healthy?  Westbrook is Westbrook.  Wainwright of course is aces.  The three or four youngsters are very talented, but still unproven at major league level.

Is it a signing, contract problem?  Why not do what it takes to hedge our bets by signing a proven big league pitcher? Wasn't Lohse our best and most consistent starter last year?   What is Mo's position on this and is it likely to change?

Thanks in advance.

“Make sure you have a different opinion and people will talk about you”

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Posted: 2/22/2013 10:03 AM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


Our current payroll obligations, assuming we have to pay Carp, are around $113 million for 2013. It has been stated that ownership wants to keep payroll in the $115 million range for this year.

Do you think Lohse would take a contract for $2 million this year? I don't either. End of story, unless we free up payroll space elsewhere.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 11:04 AM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


Let's check back in 15 years and see if you're correct. I do hope you are.

Lohse was one those guys in the day. Sure he never lived up to the billing but he's had some decent seasons 3 of the last 5 years.

---------------------------------------------
--- tillerjustin wrote:

At some point you have to play your young talent.  If you aren't going to play guys because they are unproven at a major league level then they will never play.  Lohse had a career year and it is possible that if we sign him to one year then we may never get anything for him if he doens't reproduce those numbers.  The bigger thing than the pick is 1.7mil that gets added to your draft purse, this allows you to draft and sign guys that others wont have the resources to do.  It's time to let these young guns throw, the Cards are correct in thier approach.  We had 17 guys in our minors that have thrown 95+mph.  Let em throw, they have a higher upside than Lohse ever will!
Brosky wrote: Why we're not re-signing this guy?  I just don't get it and I could use input from some wiser heads.  Carpenter gone.  Lynn, cross our fingers.  Is Garcia completely healthy?  Westbrook is Westbrook.  Wainwright of course is aces.  The three or four youngsters are very talented, but still unproven at major league level.

Is it a signing, contract problem?  Why not do what it takes to hedge our bets by signing a proven big league pitcher? Wasn't Lohse our best and most consistent starter last year?   What is Mo's position on this and is it likely to change?

Thanks in advance.


---------------------------------------------

 Suggested U. of Illinois mascots

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Posted: 2/22/2013 12:07 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


i do not think if the cardinals sign him that they have to give up a draft pick.from what i read only if he signs with another team.then again i might be wrong.
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  • UncleDenny
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Posted: 2/22/2013 12:12 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


I think the point is they would lose the draft pick that the other signing team would lose to them. They would not lose their own pick.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 12:19 PM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


Just to clarify, the Cardinals would not receive the draft pick that the club that signs Lohse would have to give up. That pick just evaporates. The Cardinals would receive a compensatory selection following the regular first round.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
Follow both Brian and TCN on Twitter

Last edited 2/22/2013 12:20 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 2/22/2013 1:27 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



UncleDenny wrote: I think the point is they would lose the draft pick that the other signing team would lose to them. They would not lose their own pick.
Correct, that was my point.  They will lose the draft pick they would get when another team signs him.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 2:48 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



Brosky wrote: Why we're not re-signing this guy?  I just don't get it and I could use input from some wiser heads.  Carpenter gone.  Lynn, cross our fingers.  Is Garcia completely healthy?  Westbrook is Westbrook.  Wainwright of course is aces.  The three or four youngsters are very talented, but still unproven at major league level.

Is it a signing, contract problem?  Why not do what it takes to hedge our bets by signing a proven big league pitcher? Wasn't Lohse our best and most consistent starter last year?   What is Mo's position on this and is it likely to change?

Thanks in advance.
Money!  The owners are not going to add another 12-15 million to this years payroll.  I think they are close to 115 now.  And they want to work the youngsters into the rotation.  Plus, don't confuse your desire to see a winner on the field with what the owners want.  Sure they want to win--with what we have.  They will make moves and sign guys to strengthen the team-they have in recent years and will do so again but it doesn't matter to them that the Cardinals might be headed for a bad season.  This could be a medicore season and at this point the owners aren't going to do anything about it.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:09 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



nathanleopoldjr wrote: ...This could be a medicore season and at this point the owners aren't going to do anything about it.
Wondering how many times we have read this kind of post over the years? I am guessing at least once each spring since "DeWallet" took over. Never spend enough. Never have a good enough team. No decent players in the pipeline. Don't want to win. It is a crying shame the Cards have such lousy leadership and a losing mentality.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
Follow both Brian and TCN on Twitter

Last edited 2/22/2013 3:53 PM by Domeboys

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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:11 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


A broken clock is right twice a day!!!
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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:16 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


These are all thoughtful answers but--hard as I try--I just don't find them convincing.  Starting rotation will include Wainwright (rock solid), Lynn (one good season, or should I say half-season),  Garcia (can we count on him being and staying healthy, not to mention he's inconsistent) Westbrook (maybe, although he's average at best, getting older, and may wind up in the bullpen.)  We're already for sure going to have one of our young guys in the rotation; if Garcia comes up lame, or another starter suffers an injury, we may have as many as two or three of the young guys in the rotation.  As much as I love these precocious lads, that's too much risk in my opinion.

Baseball Reference will show you how rock solid Lohse has been in his three healthy seasons for the Cards.  2011 and 2012 in particular.  Could there be a way for Mo to sign him to a 2-year deal?  After this season Beltran's money goes away.  I guess my position on this issue leaves me in a very small minority.  That's okay, I can live with it as I often find myself in this position.

Last edited 2/22/2013 3:17 PM by Brosky

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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:50 PM

Re: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


Brosky, would you be convinced by this argument:

Lohse doesn't want to play for a 1,2, or 3 year deal.  He wants 4 years if he can get it.  I think he makes a ton of sense for the Cards on a 1 year deal, and maybe at 2 years, but if his demands drop to that he'll make a lot of sense for a lot of other teams.  Teams that would be willing to pay up for the shorter service time.  Let's not forget that Lohse remains unsigned because of Lohse.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 3:58 PM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



Domeboys wrote: Just to clarify, the Cardinals would not receive the draft pick that the club that signs Lohse would have to give up. That pick just evaporates. The Cardinals would receive a compensatory selection following the regular first round.
I read where if Cleveland signed him we would get a 3rd rounder only.

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Posted: 2/22/2013 4:03 PM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 



619illinibooyah wrote:
Domeboys wrote: Just to clarify, the Cardinals would not receive the draft pick that the club that signs Lohse would have to give up. That pick just evaporates. The Cardinals would receive a compensatory selection following the regular first round.
I read where if Cleveland signed him we would get a 3rd rounder only.
If you read that, it is wrong. It could be that it is being confused with the pick that Cleveland would forfeit, as they have already signed two qualifying free agents.

No matter which of the other 29 teams Lohse signs with, the Cardinals would receive a compensatory selection following the regular first round.
Brian Walton
The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation blog
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Posted: 2/22/2013 4:06 PM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


It totally makes sense to bring Lohse back if it was simply a matter of signing him. But you start to add up the "costs" - a lost draft pick, opportunity cost of the money you would have tied up in him, younger guys looking like they might be ready to contribute - and in my opinion the negatives outweigh the positives.

Obviously in either case, sign or not, there is risk and uncertainty. But while I appreciate what Lohse did for us these last two seasons, I like the course management is taking on this one.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 4:08 PM

RE: Lohse: Somebody PLEASE explain to me 


If Lohse is willing to take a 1 year deal to get him to next year to try to get another longer deal who would be in favor? If so for how much money?
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