I'm seeing the Pujols situation come up again with Adam Wainwright with a great deal of the same language from Mo.  He's talking about they are going to go into the negotiation not based on past performance but on future projected output.  If the offer is then lowball in the players eyes that is essentially the GM saying we don't think you will be as successful over the next 4-5 years as you were the first 6.

My question is this should the fact that some players over perform their initial contract allow them to ask the team to overpay with the first contract in Free Agency. Wainwright has never been a "bad" boy or trouble maker.  He could have demanded a new contract after 2009 or 2010 but he didn't.  It's possible that Wainwright won't be as good statistically in the next 4-5 years as he was in the last 4-5 but does that mean he's not worth what he's asking for?  Isn't there a ton of value in having a warhorse in the rotation that the young pitchers can look up to and see how to go about their business.  Wainwright had Carpenter.  Who will our young guys have in the future if Wainwright leaves next year?  He's recently said that it's in the Cardinals best interest to get him wrapped up now rather than try to wait till he hits the open market.  I love the Cardinals but I'm not a huge fan of the business model that says get the most out of the players while they are still cost controlled but not be willing to overpay even a bit to keep them around after they are no longer cheap.  I agree with the Pujols situation because that was just stupid money but with the other contracts pitchers are getting now days and into the future 5 years for 100 for Wainwright will be a barigin.

The interview where Waino said that was pretty straight forward...  Maybe a hint of posturing on Waino's part.. But also a ton of confidence as well..  He has a point that IF he go's out and has a Cy Young caliber season it will cost the Cards more... That is so very true..

It will work itself out in the end....  I to hope Waino and Cards find a way to make it work for both parties...

i think mo and ownership has shown a willingness to give large contracts to very special players.  holliday's caused many of us to scratch our heads, yet now looks like a deal, and yadi's deal was a big time deal as well.

i think we get the deal done with aw, b/c he's not expecting 8 years, as pujols was.  i believe the sides will come together on a 4/80 - 5/100 deal before he ever hits free agency.

if he does hit free agency, i think he'll sign for 4/100-5/125 type of money.  it is in the cards best interest to get this taken care of sooner rather than later.

I don't pay much attention to what either side says publicly either preceding or during the negotiation process because I very much doubt whether public statements accurately reflect what's really going on behind the scenes.

Wainwright didn't produce 'ace' stats last season, his first after TJ surgery.  I didn't expect him to but he's going to want to be paid as an ace.  Will he return to ace form?  I can understand if St. Louis adopts a 'wait-and-see' attitude. 

But any move St. Louis makes regarding Waino carries risk.  If they commit now the Cardinals run a real risk of locking in a pitcher that doesn't return to ace form but is being paid like an ace.  If they 'wait-and-see' the Cardinals risk watching the tab rise during the season if Waino returns to being 'Waino is bueno'.

And then there's the clubhouse impact of possibly not signing him, as scadder's OP points out.  Given the real need for a credible vet to mentor the young guns, plus what I think is the likelihood of Wainwright improving on his 2012 performance, I expect St. Louis to get him re-signed.

Even if Wainwright doesn't quite perform like *an* ace, he's still *our* ace.

Wondering how much the Cardinal put into intangibles such as the effect that the pitcher has on other pitchers? Wouldn't you love for Wainwright to mentor the young guys coming up now and Martinez and Wacha next year?

scadder21 wrote: Wondering how much the Cardinal put into intangibles such as the effect that the pitcher has on other pitchers? Wouldn't you love for Wainwright to mentor the young guys coming up now and Martinez and Wacha next year?

Can already envision that Wainwright already is playing the role as a mentor for some of the young pitching prospects. Wainwright mentoring Wacha would be very interesting given that both are similar types of pitchers. Wouldn't hurt for Wacha to learn and improve his curve by watching Wainwright.

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--- scadder21 wrote:

Wouldn't you love for Wainwright to mentor the young guys coming up now and Martinez and Wacha next year?

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To be honest, I don't really know? I know Waino is a whale of a pitcher, but have no idea what kind of a mentor he'd be....or if he even has the desire to take on that role. As for Mr. Wacha, we may be getting a glimpse of him before 2014.

It is an excellent point made about the difference between being a good player and a good mentor. Folks too often just assume they are one and the same. Certainly one has to have some success before being qualified to lead. Yet, there is a difference between leading by example and leading through interaction.

Further, it is a lot easier to mentor others when your own house is in order. Wainwright has had a rough couple of years and likely has spent most of his energy trying to get back to his former level of performance. Then, there is that contract coming up...

Here is another dimension to consider. A recent article contrasted the roles that Carp and Wainwright played - bad cop vs. good cop. The bad cop role is a much tougher one to carry out, IMO. One can't move from being Mr. Nice Guy to Mr. Tough Guy overnight.

We already know that Wainwright personally took Miller under his wing last year and over the winter. He challenged him to a bet to see who could gain the most muscle or keep the most muscle depending on what each needed going into the next year. They then communicated all winter via text about their progress. We also know that during the last baseball season Wainwright had Miller text him after each of starts to tell him what worked during that start, what didn't work and any lessons from it.

Wainwright many times has contributed his success to being mentored by Carp and he seems to be giving back by mentoring Miller now. We already know that Carp is/was mentoring Trevor Rosenthal also.

It just seems that Waino sees the value of passing it along and thus making the team better. I could be wrong but I just see Waino as being the of pitcher to push the young guys to work as hard and be as good as him because of his competitive spirit.

I agree with DT that Wacha has the most to learn from Wainwright because they are similar pitchers in terms of style.

Domeboys wrote: It is an excellent point made about the difference between being a good player and a good mentor. Folks too often just assume they are one and the same. Certainly one has to have some success before being qualified to lead. Yet, there is a difference between leading by example and leading through interaction.

Further, it is a lot easier to mentor others when your own house is in order. Wainwright has had a rough couple of years and likely has spent most of his energy trying to get back to his former level of performance. Then, there is that contract coming up...

Here is another dimension to consider. A recent article contrasted the roles that Carp and Wainwright played - bad cop vs. good cop. The bad cop role is a much tougher one to carry out, IMO. One can't move from being Mr. Nice Guy to Mr. Tough Guy overnight.

That is true but a lot of what young pitchers get from guys like Carp is watching how they do business and how they work towards each start.  We already know that Carp has had significant interactions with Rosenthal and that Wainwright has had significant interactions with Miller over the last year.  I don't necessarily think that anyone has to be a "bad cop" in order to get through to a pitcher although it may be necessary in some cases.

On a related note do we know if Carp was around the team any at all during 2007 and 2008? He missed most of both years but I'm not sure if he rehabbed and was with the team or if he wasn't around?

Agree. I did not mean to suggest that Wainwright hasn't helped others. In fact, I have already gone on record as saying that I believe that playoff-contending clubs need a staff leader and Wainwright is that man for the Cardinals.

The only really relevant question IMO is how that translates into money and years. Only the Cardinals and Wainwright know how they respectively put that into numbers.

I think it should add money and years to a contract. If you know he's in it for the long haul and that he will be the staff leader he's obviously going to do what's needed to make every other starter better. If you use Wainwrights money to bring in a pitcher for 2 years, and then after that 2 years bring someone else in for 3 it is less likely the the player brought in for 2 will be committed to improving the young players around him? A longer contract means an increased commitment to the team and the players on the team. If you continue to fill holes with stop gaps most likely those stop gaps won't be committed to anyone but themselves.

That's why I think 5 years 100 million is fair. He brings so much more to the table than just his start every 5 days.

We have no idea if the Cardinals haven't already offered five years, $100 million. Maybe they offered more, maybe less. Maybe Wainwright wants to see if he can get more by waiting. Maybe the team wants to see a full season of top-level performance before getting serious. It is all speculation at this point.

That's definitely true. We can assume that they are not close on a number because they have disengaged and are no longer negotiating. I believe the phrase was done talking now but not for good. I can see the Cardinals wanting to make sure that he's back for good. I can also see Wainwright knowing that once he proves he's back for good he has make himself quite a bit more money. Personally as a fan I rather trust that he's back and sign him for a little less than take the risk of him having a huge season and not being able to afford him.

scadder21 wrote: That's definitely true. We can assume that they are not close on a number because they have disengaged and are no longer negotiating. I believe the phrase was done talking now but not for good. I can see the Cardinals wanting to make sure that he's back for good. I can also see Wainwright knowing that once he proves he's back for good he has make himself quite a bit more money. Personally as a fan I rather trust that he's back and sign him for a little less than take the risk of him having a huge season and not being able to afford him.

Oh, I tend to agree with you, scadder.

Then again, we're not spending our own money either...

UConnCard wrote:

scadder21 wrote: That's definitely true. We can assume that they are not close on a number because they have disengaged and are no longer negotiating. I believe the phrase was done talking now but not for good. I can see the Cardinals wanting to make sure that he's back for good. I can also see Wainwright knowing that once he proves he's back for good he has make himself quite a bit more money. Personally as a fan I rather trust that he's back and sign him for a little less than take the risk of him having a huge season and not being able to afford him.

Oh, I tend to agree with you, scadder.

Then again, we're not spending our own money either...

With the rising salaries in baseball you would have to think over the long haul of that contract it could be be reasonable for someone the player of Wainwrights stature.  Many thought Holliday was overpayed but looking back on it now we see it was a wise business move because salaries have continued to grow. Will be the same in the next 5 years. So we can pay Wainwright now or pay less for a pitcher that gets you less value per dollar than Wainwright would.  I think it's safe to say that Wainwright is a better pitcher than and will age better than Zach Grienke yet he got how much?

Implicit in a lot of this discussion is an assumption that Wainwright's expectations are reasonable and all the Cards need to do is meet them and the deal is done. Real negotiations are not usually that straightforward.

Domeboys wrote: Implicit in a lot of this discussion is an assumption that Wainwright's expectations are reasonable and all the Cards need to do is meet them and the deal is done. Real negotiations are not usually that straightforward.

Exactly.  It could just as easily be that the Cards' expectations are reasonable and all Wainwright has to do is meet them and the deal is done.

Personally, I can't envision Adam leaving us.  Albert, yes - there's something about his makeup that led me to believe his leaving was always a possibility (it's the same something - and no, I can't really define it - that kept me from proclaiming him my "favorite Cardinal" despite his obvious excellence).  But Adam doesn't seem to have that same sense of himself that Albert seemingly has.