blingboy wrote: ". . . yet another in a long line of deals signed more on the basis of past performance than realistic future expectations."

Quote from the article linked in the 'Worst Contracts' thread. It was in reference to Ryan Howard but could have applied to most of them.

If Wainy does sign, I am certain the dollars will exceed the value of realistic future expectations. But that is how it is when you want to sign an established top performer. I'm just not as sure as others that Mr. DeWitt will be willing to overspend by enough to get it done.

Obviously negotiation being “put on hold” is not good news.  But I think it is perfectly understandable.

Both sides are looking where they think/hope they be at the end of the current contract and more importantly what Wainwright’s value will be. 

Right now Wainwright is coming off of a recovery year when he didn’t have his best stuff, very understandable the first year back from TJS.  Most pitchers have considerable improvement in their second year back from TJS, so Wainwright should be confident that should he reach free agency healthy, he should get contacts in line with what the top pitchers are getting or will be getting next offseason (maybe even more than this off-season).

The Cardinals are looking at a gaggle of high ceiling pitching prospects and trying to figure out what they have in them. 

Right now it is anybody’s guess what the circumstances will be at the end of 2013, so each side has a different view.

Let me ask you, at the end of 2013 what would you want the Wainwright and the Cardinals to do if being optimistic (if not totally realistic) the best case scenario happens (which I give a 10% chance) and all the pitchers do well in 2013?

If Wainwright pitches like he did in 2009 & 2010, he would have earned top FA money, he would be 32 to he cannot expect the term of King Felix, but why wouldn’t he expect the AAV and at least four years?  That is $100,000,000 dollars.

Now if Garcia health holds up and he pitches up to his ability, and the other young pitchers pitch up to their expectations/abilities, the Cardinals will have:

Garcia, Lynn, Miller, Rosenthal, Kelly ready to contribute in the MLB rotation with Martinez and Wacha knocking on the door.  
 

How much would and for how long would you be willing to sign Wainwright, with five others experiences young pitchers (plus Westbrook available, with a mutual option, as a veteran influance) ready and two in the wings?

Domeboys wrote: I understand where you are coming from, but what fans, message board posters and the media think does not really matter. The system in place greatly encourages players to seek the highest dollar on the open market whenever possible. Teams are making a lot of money and the players rightfully want a share. Any loyalty on either side is tempered by economic reality.

blingboy wrote: crdswmn, I hate to break it to you, but the game of baseball in the 60s, which you remember so fondly, was an abomination.  The great game had been ruined by the likes of misers such as Rickey trading beloved stars over a few bucks, and all manner of other travesties.  I know this for a fact, and have it on good authority, because I have been listening to old, old school fans lament the fact since the 60s.

I fret about it too, especially in the winter. But when the ump says play ball it all goes away, at least for a few hours.

mudville wrote:
I'm still apprehensive about giving a pitcher 100M when he has not yet proven that he is all the way back from an injury. Everyone is assuming that he is 100% and that will stay healthy. I want Wainwright to stay here. But I'd like to see him at 10-4 by the All Star break, then start talking in earnest about a huge contract. So many signings are motivated by fear rather than good sense.

PadsFS wrote:

mudville wrote:
I'm still apprehensive about giving a pitcher 100M when he has not yet proven that he is all the way back from an injury. Everyone is assuming that he is 100% and that will stay healthy. I want Wainwright to stay here. But I'd like to see him at 10-4 by the All Star break, then start talking in earnest about a huge contract. So many signings are motivated by fear rather than good sense.

Wainwright's second half completely sold me. His ERA went down to 3.28, his WHIP went down from 1.35 to 1.13 and his K/9 stayed relatively stable.  His fastball was evenly spread with a max of 94 all through 2012, which was the speed it left off at in 2010.


       The numbers don't lie.

       Thanks for posting this.