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Trade Matt Holliday????

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Posted: 11/20/2012 10:53 AM

Trade Matt Holliday???? 


It has been a little quiet around here lately as should be expected with very little happening BB wise this month. I thought it would be a good time to point out the Elephant in the room for the upcoming Winter meetings. Now before i get accused of hating on Matt let me say that i was one that wanted him here and he has done a good job for the most part. Problem is we need him to be great for $18 Million a year. I doubt anyone will say his time here has been great. Also Holli plays the game hard, smart and when he is hurt. He is one of the guys i would most like to hang with and have a beer in the entire league. He has a lot of value! He also has a lot of value to other teams.

I am leery of Holliday going forward with his bad back and injuries that seem to linger lately for him. Having to sit him down at the most important time of the year was a harbinger of things to come IMO. Lets not forget he was not on the field at the end of game 6 v.s Texas in 2011 either. Matt has been absolutely brutal in the playoffs for St.Louis. No one can argue that he has not been awful both at the plate and in the field in the playoffs. He had one huge series v.s Milwaukee in 2011 that bumps his numbers a whole lot. In the other 5 series he has played he was no factor at all. This has been huge in our playoff losses b/c he hits #3 and has killed many rallys. To me we have a player that is great sometimes but invisible when he is needed the most, has a re-occurring back injury and makes big bucks that could be used elsewhere. With Tavares waiting in the wings do not be shocked to see Matt Holli moved at the Winter meetings. O.k, let the flaming begin. I am sure i will be burned for saying this but if you think about it a power hitting left fielder is not as hard to replace as some other positions and we already have ample power on this club.

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:08 AM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


I see nothing in this about how the 2013 Cardinals could be better as a result, perhaps because such a claim would be difficult to demonstrate.
Brian Walton
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  • UncleDenny
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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:10 AM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


I would listen if teams are interested. There are always free agent outfielders which are available. It doesn't sound like the Cardinals are in much of a mood to revamp this off season. They are talking depth moves and a lefty reliever.
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  • ballfive
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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:11 AM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


Trade Holiday?  Yes.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:21 AM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



Domeboys wrote: I see nothing in this about how the 2013 Cardinals could be better as a result, perhaps because such a claim would be difficult to demonstrate.
This is about getting better going forward more so than being better in 2013. The money could be spent to bring in a SS and strengthen the bench. It would give MOz wiggle room with regards to upgrading the starting pitching even. Not to mention the players you could net in return. Are you looking for specific names i would like to see in a Cards uniform Domer?

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:39 AM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


Are we that spoiled by having seen a perfect player recently that we consider a top 5 outfielder in baseball to be just kinda "meh"?  This guy has gone 4, 5, 11, 11 in terms of WAR for all outfielders over the past 4 years.  Since coming too the Cardinals, all he's done is hit .302/.385/.517/.903 with 26HR and 93 RBI per year, on average.

That's not good.  That's great.  That's fantastic.  A player who averages a .900 OPS?  

In terms of "not being worth his salary," fangraphs has his monetary value at $26.5MM, $22.5MM and $23MM over the past 3 years.  He is outperforming his contract.  It's pretty unusual to trade a player who is a top 5-10 player at his position, and who is worth almost 50% more than you're paying him.

Last edited 11/20/2012 11:39 AM by JimJim15

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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:53 AM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



JimJim15 wrote: Are we that spoiled by having seen a perfect player recently that we consider a top 5 outfielder in baseball to be just kinda "meh"?  This guy has gone 4, 5, 11, 11 in terms of WAR for all outfielders over the past 4 years.  Since coming too the Cardinals, all he's done is hit .302/.385/.517/.903 with 26HR and 93 RBI per year, on average.

That's not good.  That's great.  That's fantastic.  A player who averages a .900 OPS?  

In terms of "not being worth his salary," fangraphs has his monetary value at $26.5MM, $22.5MM and $23MM over the past 3 years.  He is outperforming his contract.  It's pretty unusual to trade a player who is a top 5-10 player at his position, and who is worth almost 50% more than you're paying him.
Thank you.  The Holliday bashing nonsense is just getting on my last nerve.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 12:02 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


Way to go CNH.  Turn up the amperage!

For the "right" players, definitely.

Matt's raw numbers are fairly impressive.  But that's never been the question/issue.  Timelieness, has been (with some of us).  And, as you point out, his position does not require a stout defensive presence and, IMO, he would be the most vulnerable if Taveras were deemed ready.

If other organizations are as impressed with his numbers as some of us, he should be able to net some value.  However, noting that he had 3 IBB's in 2012 (Beltran had 15), I imagine their respect has limitations.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 12:07 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



crdswmn wrote:
JimJim15 wrote: Are we that spoiled by having seen a perfect player recently that we consider a top 5 outfielder in baseball to be just kinda "meh"?  This guy has gone 4, 5, 11, 11 in terms of WAR for all outfielders over the past 4 years.  Since coming too the Cardinals, all he's done is hit .302/.385/.517/.903 with 26HR and 93 RBI per year, on average.

That's not good.  That's great.  That's fantastic.  A player who averages a .900 OPS?  

In terms of "not being worth his salary," fangraphs has his monetary value at $26.5MM, $22.5MM and $23MM over the past 3 years.  He is outperforming his contract.  It's pretty unusual to trade a player who is a top 5-10 player at his position, and who is worth almost 50% more than you're paying him.
Thank you.  The Holliday bashing nonsense is just getting on my last nerve.
It would be great if he actually did some research before bashing Holliday.

Since 2009 (the year the Cards acquired him) Holliday has been top 10 hitter (he's had the 8th highest OBA, 7th WRC+, 9th highest OBP, the 8th highest WAR). He's been pretty great. His production is exactly what 18 Million a year buys. 

Please research before you make claims. It isn't that hard.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:01 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


To trade Holliday, you would have to overwhelm me with a deal that includes a solid veteran or two at a position I need to fill, and a couple of blue chip prospects.

 

I don't care about Holliday's post season numbers, because those are generally random. You don't make wise deals based on what a guy has done in the post season because that has no bearing on where you need to be personnel-wise in the present. Post season numbers mainly come in when looking back on a guy's career, not looking forward to assess your club's needs.

 

 

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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:53 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


Makes no sense at all, we all know you hate Holliday CHN, but this just makes no sense.  Why on gods green earth would we want to trade our best hitter...
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:19 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



TCRedbird wrote: Makes no sense at all, we all know you hate Holliday CHN, but this just makes no sense.  Why on gods green earth would we want to trade our best hitter...
This is the best question of the bunch TC. I will argue that Matt has been awful when needed most in the playoffs. Not just bad but awful and being he is supposed to be "the guy" on this team and hits #3 it is significant. Also Tavares is about ready, Cards have comparable bats to pick up the slack( Craig, Freese, Molina and Beltran all have right handed power) so his production would not be missed as much as some may think IMO.Matt makes about 18 a year so his departure could provide an awful lot of salary relief which could be used in other areas. His back is a BIG concern to me b/c if he could not go in the most important games of the year that is a huge red flag. No one here has anything but respect for Holl, we all know if he could have played he would have. The reason you trade him now is that you can sell high on a guy that i believe is on the downspin now who HAS value and a big contract. It all depends on the return of course but i am not suggesting he be given away. I am sorry that Crdswmn and 5129 think this is a "bash Holliday" thread as opposed to joining the conversation with a legit argument as to "why not". I mean other than he is a good hitter with great OPS and all that in the regular season. Magnolia is dead on with his assessment, but he read past the first sentence.

GO CARDS!
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:25 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


I agree Matt has been worth the money. But if the Cards have the chance to not pay him $17M a year for the next 4 years I think they should take it.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:33 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



blingboy wrote: I agree Matt has been worth the money. But if the Cards have the chance to not pay him $17M a year for the next 4 years I think they should take it.
Why?  If they have the chance to not pay Molina 15M for the next 5 years, should they take that too?
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Posted: 11/20/2012 5:04 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



cardinalnationhouston wrote:
TCRedbird wrote: Makes no sense at all, we all know you hate Holliday CHN, but this just makes no sense.  Why on gods green earth would we want to trade our best hitter...
This is the best question of the bunch TC. I will argue that Matt has been awful when needed most in the playoffs. Not just bad but awful and being he is supposed to be "the guy" on this team and hits #3 it is significant. Also Tavares is about ready, Cards have comparable bats to pick up the slack( Craig, Freese, Molina and Beltran all have right handed power) so his production would not be missed as much as some may think IMO.Matt makes about 18 a year so his departure could provide an awful lot of salary relief which could be used in other areas. His back is a BIG concern to me b/c if he could not go in the most important games of the year that is a huge red flag. No one here has anything but respect for Holl, we all know if he could have played he would have. The reason you trade him now is that you can sell high on a guy that i believe is on the downspin now who HAS value and a big contract. It all depends on the return of course but i am not suggesting he be given away. I am sorry that Crdswmn and 5129 think this is a "bash Holliday" thread as opposed to joining the conversation with a legit argument as to "why not". I mean other than he is a good hitter with great OPS and all that in the regular season. Magnolia is dead on with his assessment, but he read past the first sentence.
??? Read my post again I actually supply evidence. You, again, just run your mouth, providing 0 reasoning. I think me listing a bunch of evidence showing that he's one of the 10 best hitters in baseball since 2009 is a pretty legit argument. You on the other hand are basing your argument on 67 postseason plate appearances (his bad '09 playoffs and '12 playoffs) I'm basing my argument on more 2000 plate appearances ...but yah I'm the one with an illegitimate argument...

Ok tell me now how I'm wrong? You want to trade one of the best hitters in baseball for virtually no reason, other than he's had a some rough postseason series and he makes a salary commensurate with his production. This isn't the first time you've spoken ill of him either. It sounds like basing to me.

Last edited 11/20/2012 5:08 PM by stlcards5129

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Posted: 11/20/2012 5:28 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



cardinalnationhouston wrote:
TCRedbird wrote: Makes no sense at all, we all know you hate Holliday CHN, but this just makes no sense.  Why on gods green earth would we want to trade our best hitter...
This is the best question of the bunch TC. I will argue that Matt has been awful when needed most in the playoffs. Not just bad but awful and being he is supposed to be "the guy" on this team and hits #3 it is significant. Also Tavares is about ready, Cards have comparable bats to pick up the slack( Craig, Freese, Molina and Beltran all have right handed power) so his production would not be missed as much as some may think IMO.Matt makes about 18 a year so his departure could provide an awful lot of salary relief which could be used in other areas. His back is a BIG concern to me b/c if he could not go in the most important games of the year that is a huge red flag. No one here has anything but respect for Holl, we all know if he could have played he would have. The reason you trade him now is that you can sell high on a guy that i believe is on the downspin now who HAS value and a big contract. It all depends on the return of course but i am not suggesting he be given away. I am sorry that Crdswmn and 5129 think this is a "bash Holliday" thread as opposed to joining the conversation with a legit argument as to "why not". I mean other than he is a good hitter with great OPS and all that in the regular season. Magnolia is dead on with his assessment, but he read past the first sentence.

CNH - A couple of reasons I don't trade Holliday, unless as I said above I am overwhelmed by an offer, is that one, you never make a deal using post season results as a major factor.  Anyone that puts that into the mix as a reason for making a deal is asking for trouble.

Second, Holliday is one of those guys that brings value in addition to his numbers, and his numbers hold up on their own quite well. But he's also a positive influence with the young guys, in the clubhouse, and on the field in the way he plays the game.

Third, our club is in a position to win now. I can't see how you could get equal value in return for dealing Holliday. What you could get is potential, and maybe you think about a deal for potential if the club was in more of a rebuilding mode. And you're talking that way when you say "Tavarez is almost ready", like we should be thinking about a couple of years down the road.

We aren't the Astros, Cubs, or even the Pirates, where we are more interested in guys who are "almost ready". We're going to take the field in 2013 thinking that we can win the division.  We want mostly guys who have been there before, and especially .900+ OPS guys who have been there. 

Bottom line, the risk in dealing him is far too great at this point in time given the ball club's personnel and Holliday's career.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 6:48 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


Yadi is not replaceable.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 7:01 PM

RE: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



blingboy wrote: Yadi is not replaceable.
Sure he is, just not with anyone that is as good as he is for less money.

Can't replace Holliday for the same reason.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 8:13 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 



cardinalnationhouston wrote:
TCRedbird wrote: Makes no sense at all, we all know you hate Holliday CHN, but this just makes no sense.  Why on gods green earth would we want to trade our best hitter...
This is the best question of the bunch TC. I will argue that Matt has been awful when needed most in the playoffs. Not just bad but awful and being he is supposed to be "the guy" on this team and hits #3 it is significant. Also Tavares is about ready, Cards have comparable bats to pick up the slack( Craig, Freese, Molina and Beltran all have right handed power) so his production would not be missed as much as some may think IMO.Matt makes about 18 a year so his departure could provide an awful lot of salary relief which could be used in other areas. His back is a BIG concern to me b/c if he could not go in the most important games of the year that is a huge red flag. No one here has anything but respect for Holl, we all know if he could have played he would have. The reason you trade him now is that you can sell high on a guy that i believe is on the downspin now who HAS value and a big contract. It all depends on the return of course but i am not suggesting he be given away. I am sorry that Crdswmn and 5129 think this is a "bash Holliday" thread as opposed to joining the conversation with a legit argument as to "why not". I mean other than he is a good hitter with great OPS and all that in the regular season. Magnolia is dead on with his assessment, but he read past the first sentence.
It is beyond stupid to want to trade a guy based on such small sample size.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 8:42 PM

Re: Trade Matt Holliday???? 


If we could be confident that Adams would be productive at first base we could then move Craig to left field which is his best defensive position. Then we could go after some quality middle infielders with Holliday. Texas would be a possibility. We would also have to get some quality prospects. Even though Holliday had a rough season in terms of performance in the close games (1-2 run losses) I am not that wild about trading him but as some have said if the right deal came along I would not be against it.

After watching Tavares on the net most of the season I saw marked improvement in both his baserunning and defense in center field. I think he could develop into a plus center fielder. It appears that he is faster than the pundits project. That leaves the question about what we would do with Jay who has developed into a plus defensive center fielder and is becoming a pretty effective leadoff hitter.

Mo has a minefield to negotiate in terms of making the right decisions about when and how to integrate our top prospects into the system without losing overall effectiveness. Players like Miller, Rosenthal, Adams, Wong and Taveras have come along for years and to everyone's suprise didn't live up to their hype. On the other hand sometimes a group like that became the core for great success.

Trading an established star like Holliday is filled with pitfalls when you trade for up and coming prospects. On the other hand trading young prospects like Miller, Adams and Martinez could turn out like the trades the Red Sox and Tigers made for journeyman middle relievers giving up John Smoltz and Jeff Bagwell. Of course those were sort of all in moves to try to win now.

Even if Mo stands pat we could be in for a few soft performances while the young guys get the experience and seasoning to become star players.
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