As some may recall I did a study of the Baseball America 2007 prospect ratings a year ago using Baseball Reference's stats. I went deeper than the top 30 ranked by BA to include all qualifying prospects in the respective systems that played on domestic minor league teams in 2006 or earlier. The Cardinals organization was ranked 23rd among the 30 major league teams.

I have updated the study to include the 2012 season. While I am not a rabid fan of the modern stats I feel that cumulative positive WAR is the best measure of the quality of the prospects. I will examine other factors in later posts.

The Cardinals were 12th among the 30 major league teams after the 2011 season with a cumulate positive WAR of 46.5. They increased the WAR to 61.1 in 2012 and still rank 12th. They overtook the Tigers and Athletics but fell behind the Dodgers and Brewers.

With a WAR of 14.6 Brendan Ryan continues to be the top Cardinal prospect from 2007. Colby Rasmus is a distant second at 6.8. Jon Jay follows at 6.6. There are a fair number of prospects in other organizations that have a WAR above 15.0. You could conclude that while the pundits clearly undervalued the Cardinal system at that time they were correct that the Cardinals had a fair number of major league prospects but few if any high impact players.

Some statistical data follows but it is also important to note that Baseball Reference has apparently tweaked their formulas resulting in adjustments in prior year's WAR results. Ryan Braun benefited around 4 points from the change and several others 3-5 points. Generally WAR increased in the majority of the cases but the Cardinals numbers decreased 17 times out of 30 changes. Rasmus, Craig, Gregerson, Narveson, Schumaker and Perez were hardest hit while Ryan benefited most from the change. My conclusion is that the adjustments are a move toward more accuracy so I am not making a case that the adjustments punished the Cardinals.

Now on to some numbers. First total cumulate WAR.

1. Red Sox  - 113.3
2. Reds      - 105.9
3. Rockies  -   95.9
4. DBacks  -   95.6
5. Braves  -    93.3
10. Giants  -   63.5
11. Dodgers  - 61.5
12. Cardinals - 61.1
13. Athletics - 56.7
14. Tigers  -    54.3
29. Marlins -    25.2
30. Orioles -    20.1

In looking to the future it is important to examine the respective growth for each team during the 2012 season. The Cardinals were 14th in WAR growth in 2012.

1. Braves   -   28.8
2. Brewers -   26.4
3. Rockies -   21.8
4. Reds     -   20.7
12. Angels -   15.3
13. Twins  -   14.5
14. Cardinals - 13.8
15. Mariners -  12.6
16. Phillies -     11.5
29. Orioles   -   -.3
30. Athletics  - -3.4

The above numbers include the tweaking from previous years which inflate the Brewers 2012 results as both Braun and Gallardo picked up a fair number of points.

The improvement in WAR seemed to have little effect on performance on the field as the Reds, Yankees and Cardinals were the only three of the eight division playoff teams that were in the top 15 improvements. As you can see the Orioles and Athletics were dead last.

Always a cool read. Thanks for the effort.

You think the Braves regret that Tex Trade right about now?

Since they didn't win with Tex I'm sure they would rather have the 27.0 points amassed by Andrus, Harrison and Feliz.

I was being sarcastic, but yeah that trade really has to hurt. They can look on the bright side and at least say they didn't throw Medlen in there also.

Sooner, thank you for sharing your work.