The Cardinals got FULL value out of what they paid Lohse, despite his two bad seasons, due to injury and misdiagnoses. Being able go get FULL value with over only 60% of the contracts term required well above anticipated mean return during the three healthy seasons. If the medical staff had been able to correctly diagnose the forearm condition when it first happened, they likely could have had another healthy productive year from Lohse. The extra year (a healthy 2010) may not have been as good as his 2012 season, but it likely would have been about the average of his 2008, 2011, & 2012 seasons. In which case the Cardinals would have gotten an excellent return out of Lohse.

Oqie11 wrote: The Cardinals got FULL value out of what they paid Lohse, despite his two bad seasons, due to injury and misdiagnoses. Being able go get FULL value with over only 60% of the contracts term required well above anticipated mean return during the three healthy seasons. If the medical staff had been able to correctly diagnose the forearm condition when it first happened, they likely could have had another healthy productive year from Lohse. The extra year (a healthy 2010) may not have been as good as his 2012 season, but it likely would have been about the average of his 2008, 2011, & 2012 seasons. In which case the Cardinals would have gotten an excellent return out of Lohse.

Fangraphs makes a decent attempt at equating WAR to dollars.  They evaluate Lohse's time as slightly team friendly with $47.6MM worth or WAR production compared to his compensation of $45.75MM.  However, he under performed his long term contract with only $33.7MM in WAR value compared to being paid $41MM.  The initial 1 year deal is what shifts his stay to being "full value" (at least in terms of fangraphs' analysis).  All in all, not bad.

I just saw on MLB Network, the Cardinals DID make Lohse a qualifying offer.

Oqie11 wrote: I just saw on MLB Network, the Cardinals DID make Lohse a qualifying offer.

Also in the P-D:

the Cardinals tendered a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to their own free-agent pitcher, Kyle Lohse. The bid — considered a formality to arguably the market’s second-most compelling starter — assures the Cards will receive draft compensation from the team that signs Lohse, who has seven days to accept or reject the offer. If he accepts, the Cardinals would owe him $13.3 million for 2013.

However, Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras,  hasn't prepared an elaborate presentation for his client merely to take a qualifying bid.  After constructing a 16-3 record and 2.83 ERA this season, Lohse probably will command a guaranteed four-year bid approaching a $15 million average annual value.

Hurdleheel wrote:

  

Is anybody else wondering if Carpenter will get it back. I know he rushed back to pitch to try and help the team. I really appreciate the fact the he is a big enough stud to do that, but I just have the feeling that we will never get back the Carp that we all know and love.

I wish Carp  nothing but the best, and will add that he is my favorite pitcher. Just being honest about my fears. 

Sometimes I hate that I see problems the way that I do.

Hurdleheel wrote:

Hurdleheel wrote:

  

Is anybody else wondering if Carpenter will get it back. I know he rushed back to pitch to try and help the team. I really appreciate the fact the he is a big enough stud to do that, but I just have the feeling that we will never get back the Carp that we all know and love.

I wish Carp  nothing but the best, and will add that he is my favorite pitcher. Just being honest about my fears. 

Sometimes I hate that I see problems the way that I do.

That dye was cast in 2011 when Carp pitched over 270 innings at an advanced age. Many of us knew THAT was the end for Carp and him pitching at all last year was extraordinary. My guess is that he will now retire and it is a real shame IMO. The bright side is even though it probably cost Carpenter many IP's it was the determining factor in bringing a WS crown to St.Louis. No way they win it all in 2011 without him.