nathanleopoldjr wrote: They are not going to do anything at SS or 2nd in the off season.  Furcal is under contract and Descalso played well enough so they won't do anything there.  I think the lineup is already set for next year.  I think the rotation will be very weak next year with Carpenter and Garcia with fragile arms, Wainwright being only a shadow of what he used to be, Westbrook being pedestrian and Lynn probably not being a starter at all.  2013 will be a frustrating year and probably not see the Cardinals in the playoffs.  The owners are waiting until 2014 when they'll have Taveras, Miller, Rosenthal, etc. ready to play and they will have eliminated some big contracts.

If the team were going to be up against its payroll budget this off-season, I might agree with at least the first portion of the above screed.

But with Berkman, Lohse, McClellan, and perhaps even Rzep coming off the books, there's going to be plenty of dough for bringing in veteran backups at shortstop and outfield.

Rotation woes? I can't see it, Nate. Even sans Lohse, you've got 8 guys for 5 slots right now, if my math is right. Lessee: Carp, AW, Garcia, Lynn, Westbrook, and the three kids you apparently didn't notice were excellent during their MLB debuts this year: Kelly, Miller and Rosie. (I'll grant that Joe K. should be a bullpen arm, if his troubles vs. lefties persist.) And down on the farm, you've got a pair of guys who were quite effective in AA at age 20, in Wacha and Martinez. By mid-2013 it's completely plausible that one or both of them will be succeeding at Memphis, and able to contribute league-average innings as an MLB starter, in a pinch (not unlike Joe Kelly this year).

The starting pitching will be solid-to-outstanding; have no fear.

And Taveras? He'll be ready to take over RF if and when Beltran's knees get balky next year -- even if it happens in Spring Training. The 20-year-old is a masher.

Allen Craig gets hurt? Call up Matt Adams. Trouble at 2nd base? If Matt Carpenter doesn't have the glove for a keystone role, well, by midyear Kolten Wong could well be ready.

In sum, the Birds are as well-positioned for 2013 as any team in the Senior Circuit...and much better than all but 2 or 3.

Domeboys wrote: Unless it is a situation where a deal is required due to an unhappy camper, trying to predict trades is almost impossible.

Agree.  2B seems like the most likely position for the team to be different next year though, wouldn't you agree?

BobReed, surely what matters isn't how much talent the Cards have waiting in the wings, but whether they will use it.

For example, what is Taveras the masher going to do for us if Beltran's knees aren't balky enough to put him on the DL, but his production isn't what a contender needs from a corner outfield spot? You can't tell me the Cards are going to sit Carlos and his contract no matter what Taveras is OPSing in Memphis.

If Carp, Waino, Westbrook and Garcia are healthy and putting up 9-14 years what are Miller, Rosenthal, Kelly, Martinez and Wacha going to do for us? Helluva middle relief, but that's it.

blingboy wrote:

Domeboys wrote: Unless it is a situation where a deal is required due to an unhappy camper, trying to predict trades is almost impossible.

Agree.  2B seems like the most likely position for the team to be different next year though, wouldn't you agree?

Yes and LH relief, perhaps. Hoping they pass on next year's J.C. Romero, though.

BobReed wrote:

nathanleopoldjr wrote: They are not going to do anything at SS or 2nd in the off season.  Furcal is under contract and Descalso played well enough so they won't do anything there.  I think the lineup is already set for next year.  I think the rotation will be very weak next year with Carpenter and Garcia with fragile arms, Wainwright being only a shadow of what he used to be, Westbrook being pedestrian and Lynn probably not being a starter at all.  2013 will be a frustrating year and probably not see the Cardinals in the playoffs.  The owners are waiting until 2014 when they'll have Taveras, Miller, Rosenthal, etc. ready to play and they will have eliminated some big contracts.

If the team were going to be up against its payroll budget this off-season, I might agree with at least the first portion of the above screed.

But with Berkman, Lohse, McClellan, and perhaps even Rzep coming off the books, there's going to be plenty of dough for bringing in veteran backups at shortstop and outfield.

Rotation woes? I can't see it, Nate. Even sans Lohse, you've got 8 guys for 5 slots right now, if my math is right. Lessee: Carp, AW, Garcia, Lynn, Westbrook, and the three kids you apparently didn't notice were excellent during their MLB debuts this year: Kelly, Miller and Rosie. (I'll grant that Joe K. should be a bullpen arm, if his troubles vs. lefties persist.) And down on the farm, you've got a pair of guys who were quite effective in AA at age 20, in Wacha and Martinez. By mid-2013 it's completely plausible that one or both of them will be succeeding at Memphis, and able to contribute league-average innings as an MLB starter, in a pinch (not unlike Joe Kelly this year).

The starting pitching will be solid-to-outstanding; have no fear.

And Taveras? He'll be ready to take over RF if and when Beltran's knees get balky next year -- even if it happens in Spring Training. The 20-year-old is a masher.

Allen Craig gets hurt? Call up Matt Adams. Trouble at 2nd base? If Matt Carpenter doesn't have the glove for a keystone role, well, by midyear Kolten Wong could well be ready.

In sum, the Birds are as well-positioned for 2013 as any team in the Senior Circuit...and much better than all but 2 or 3.

I agree about the good young arms.  But Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia, Westbrook are all in the rotation by default.  Now if injuries occur or some of them suck then the young guys will get a shot and I'm all for that.  The rotation will be nowhere near "outstanding"  Don't make me laugh.  It might be solid but that's all.  Finally, just because there is money available doesn't mean the owners are going to spend it.  2013 will be a yawn for Cardinal fans and we'll probably watch other teams in the playoffs (Reds, Giants, Phillies, Nationals, Braves, Dodgers will give us the five playoff teams).  Cardinals will be on the outside.  I think 2014 or 2015 will be the Cardinal's year but not 2013.

when made this topic, thought more of it as a "reflect on this recent season" thing.

thought a projecting the 2013 topic as a different topic could be cool, but didnt know how it'd jive with the rules around the "acquisitions topic"

It was a very strange year. The numbers say this team is as good s any, but the hot and cold tendency was weird. I think they missed the steadying influence of Berkman in the lineup. Likewise the starting pitching was an adventure this year. Sometimes they were very, very good, and at others they were shaky. It was an exciting year. Sorry they fell short but so did 27 other teams, and we were the last one eliminated. I will be watching the 2006 and 2011 DVDs this winter.

Matt getting a shot at 2B if his work this winter turns him into a candidate for the position. Taveras may be in the running for CF with Jay moving to backup replacing Skip. Furcal is questionable at best, so Jackson and Kozma will get a look, a very long look, next spring. Our young arms fill in the holes which could very well include at least Garcia and his balky shoulder, and maybe Carpenter if his stuff doesn't dial it up a notch or two. If Matt Adams makes the team out of ST, then the bench will have some pop no matter who is sitting out that day, and give Mike a chance to rest both Holliday and Beltran on a regular basis.

Enjoyed this year and looking forward to next year.

blingboy wrote: BobReed, surely what matters isn't how much talent the Cards have waiting in the wings, but whether they will use it.

For example, what is Taveras the masher going to do for us if Beltran's knees aren't balky enough to put him on the DL, but his production isn't what a contender needs from a corner outfield spot? You can't tell me the Cards are going to sit Carlos and his contract no matter what Taveras is OPSing in Memphis.

If Carp, Waino, Westbrook and Garcia are healthy and putting up 9-14 years what are Miller, Rosenthal, Kelly, Martinez and Wacha going to do for us? Helluva middle relief, but that's it.

So you are taking a pessimistic approach and saying that our current players will not be injured, but will suck. 

I don't see any reason to believe that, if healthy, Carpenter, Beltran, Wainwright, Garcia won't be above-average. That's just never happened before in their entire careers.

I didn't mean it that way.

I think that our hot young starters and Taveras will not replace any money guys who end up struggling through rather poor years, even if it costs us a postseason.

That's not to say I think they will all suck. I hope not at least.

But a 9-14 Carp or Waino who is healthy is not going to be sent off to sit in the pen along with their big salary, that will just never happen. So just because we have all these hot arms does not mean we will have a dominant rotation. How dominant our rotation is depends on how dominant the four money guys are.

blingboy wrote: I didn't mean it that way.

I think that our hot young starters and Taveras will not replace any money guys who end up struggling through rather poor years, even if it costs us a postseason.

That's not to say I think they will all suck. I hope not at least.

But a 9-14 Carp or Waino who is healthy is not going to be sent off to sit in the pen along with their big salary, that will just never happen. So just because we have all these hot arms does not mean we will have a dominant rotation. How dominant our rotation is depends on how dominant the four money guys are.

If our starting 5 are Waino, Carp, Garcia, Westbrook and Lynn, we have a couple of injury concerns and 3 solid pitchers.

Carp is an injury concern because he hasn't been quite the same since coming back.  However, I think with a full spring training to get ready, we will see the Carp of old.  At his age, he will be slowing down to a #2 type of starter.

Waino had a rough year, overall.  However, it was his 1st year back from TJS.  The 2nd year is usually better and I look for him to be the ace of old.

Garcia is the 2nd injury concern.  I have a feeling that he will not pitch more than 2 months with the team.  I think his shoulder will need surgery before 2013 is over.

Westbrook and Lynn will both provide up and downs.  Westbrook will struggle to give us more than 6 innings but usually keeps us in the game.  Lynn can provide some gems and also some real duds.

If Lynn struggles, I think we will see Miller, Rosenthal or Kelly take over for him.  If Carp, Waino or Westbrook struggles, they will get the benefit of the doubt to pitch through the issues.  Westbrook would have the shortest rope of the 3 if a change becomes necessary.

Yes, 2012 was indeed a good year; in fact, I'd say it was (cue Sinatra) a verrry good year. Regular season, solid B. Playoffs, I'd go B+.

And as far as next year's rotation being "outstanding" or not... well, perhaps it depends upon one's definition of the word. For instance, this year's Redbirds had the National League's 3rd-best starting pitcher ERA.

Is 3rd-best, in a 16-team league, "outstanding?" I'd say so.

Losing Kyle Lohse's numbers will hurt, of course. But shouldn't Wainwright be better, perhaps much better, a year further out from surgery? Shouldn't Carp contribute more, and Lynn be more polished with a season of experience under his belt? And if Garcia is unavailable for any meaningful length of time, don't Miller and Rosenthal appear ready to step in and provide at least above-average innings?

Put another way: can any of the pessimists out there name 4 or 5 other N.L. rotations that they'd rather have, going forward? I see Washington. The Phillies, maybe -- but only if Halladay returns to form. And that's about it. For me, anyway.

Honestly, though -- because the Redbirds are better-stocked with starter depth -- the chance for mediocrity is less in St.Louis than anywhere else in the Senior Circuit. (And the same could be said for the 2013 offense, for that matter.)

The notion that a poor performer would be permitted to remain in the rotation for more than 10 or 12 starts... well, I can't see it happening. Garcia, Westbrook, or Lynn would be yanked from their slot. And Wainwright and Carp, if 80-90% healthy, simply will not be below average pitchers. Their talent and smarts preclude it. ;)

BobReed wrote: Yes, 2012 was indeed a good year; in fact, I'd say it was (cue Sinatra) a verrry good year. Regular season, solid B. Playoffs, I'd go B+.

And as far as next year's rotation being "outstanding" or not... well, perhaps it depends upon one's definition of the word. For instance, this year's Redbirds had the National League's 3rd-best starting pitcher ERA.

Is 3rd-best, in a 16-team league, "outstanding?" I'd say so.

Losing Kyle Lohse's numbers will hurt, of course. But shouldn't Wainwright be better, perhaps much better, a year further out from surgery? Shouldn't Carp contribute more, and Lynn be more polished with a season of experience under his belt? And if Garcia is unavailable for any meaningful length of time, don't Miller and Rosenthal appear ready to step in and provide at least above-average innings?

Put another way: can any of the pessimists out there name 4 or 5 other N.L. rotations that they'd rather have, going forward? I see Washington. The Phillies, maybe -- but only if Halladay returns to form. And that's about it. For me, anyway.

Honestly, though -- because the Redbirds are better-stocked with starter depth -- the chance for mediocrity is less in St.Louis than anywhere else in the Senior Circuit. (And the same could be said for the 2013 offense, for that matter.)

The notion that a poor performer would be permitted to remain in the rotation for more than 10 or 12 starts... well, I can't see it happening. Garcia, Westbrook, or Lynn would be yanked from their slot. And Wainwright and Carp, if 80-90% healthy, simply will not be below average pitchers. Their talent and smarts preclude it. ;)

Agreed. Any objective assessment of our club for 2013 would come to the conclusion that barring major injuries, we'll compete for the division, and at least a wild card spot, in 2013. Whether we get there or not can't be guaranteed, but we should compete.

First, out of the starting eight, and just using our lineup down the stretch and in the post season, has five potential all stars in it (catcher, first base, third base, left field, right field).

The starting rotation has one potential all star (Wainwright), and perhaps more based on top-of-their-game production as Westbrook, Carpenter, Garcia and Lynn have all been very good, great in Carpenter's case.

The closer is a potential all-star, and the bullpen is pretty deep from the right side - although truthfully if Rosenthall and Miller don't crack the rotation I would prefer them starting in Memphis. I suppose one guy could spend a year at the big league level in the bullpen, sort of like Wainwright in 2006, or Matt Morris when he came back from surgery, but long term I'd rather us groom them as starters. We need to shore up the left side a little more though - something more reliable than a JC Romero.

The great thing about the club right now is that it does not need an overhaul, but rather more of a tweaking. And even if you went with what you have, you're probably going to be pretty good.