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Padres Going to Arbitration

Posted: 01/17/2012 8:37 AM

Padres Going to Arbitration 


As of now the Padres still have 11 players up for arbitration (out of about 100 left in MLB)...an unusually high count. Today is the filing date for arbitration numbers.  It will be interesting to see the new FO strategy...historically they tried to get a settlement done before the exchange of figures...and certainly worked to avoid going to arbitration.  Is the current FO taking a tougher stance and more willing to go into the arbitration hearings?
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Posted: 01/17/2012 8:56 AM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: As of now the Padres still have 11 players up for arbitration (out of about 100 left in MLB)...an unusually high count. Today is the filing date for arbitration numbers.  It will be interesting to see the new FO strategy...historically they tried to get a settlement done before the exchange of figures...and certainly worked to avoid going to arbitration.  Is the current FO taking a tougher stance and more willing to go into the arbitration hearings?
After the years most of these guys had...why not?
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 01/17/2012 9:14 AM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 


Thatcher signs for $700K.
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Posted: 01/17/2012 9:29 AM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 



DaveyPinstripes wrote:
FENN68 wrote: As of now the Padres still have 11 players up for arbitration (out of about 100 left in MLB)...an unusually high count. Today is the filing date for arbitration numbers.  It will be interesting to see the new FO strategy...historically they tried to get a settlement done before the exchange of figures...and certainly worked to avoid going to arbitration.  Is the current FO taking a tougher stance and more willing to go into the arbitration hearings?
After the years most of these guys had...why not?
Timing wont get any better to get some of these guys inked....
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Posted: 01/17/2012 10:03 AM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 


189167_woot.gif
FENN68 wrote: Thatcher signs for $700K.





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Posted: 01/17/2012 10:16 AM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 


Looks like we signed four of the most important.....other than Quentin that is.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 01/17/2012 3:28 PM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 


Only guys going to arbitration will be Richard and Moseley. And I bet even they get re-upped.

It wouldn't be surprising if they don't though. They're both coming off season-ending injuries.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 01/17/2012 4:53 PM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 


Nine of the eleven have signed.  Just for amusement, I compared the signing price to a model that MLBTR uses to predict the arbitration price....signed - prediction = over(under):

Quentin 7,025 - 6,600 = +425
Headley 3,475 - 3,000 = +475
Stauffer 3,200 - 3,000 = +200
Volquez 2,237 - 2,300 = (   63)
Hundley 2,000 - 1,600 = +400
Venable 1,475 - 1,800 = (325) 
Gregerson 1,550 - 1,300 = +250
Baker 750 -    800 = (   50) 
Thatcher 700 -    800 = (100)

TBD
Richard 2,000 
Moseley 1,800

Net...slightly over but the model was decent.  Appears that the Padres were OK with going over rather than fight.
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Posted: 01/17/2012 5:10 PM

Re: Padres Going to Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: Nine of the eleven have signed.  Just for amusement, I compared the signing price to a model that MLBTR uses to predict the arbitration price....signed - prediction = over(under):

Quentin 7,025 - 6,600 = +425
Headley 3,475 - 3,000 = +475
Stauffer 3,200 - 3,000 = +200
Volquez 2,237 - 2,300 = (   63)
Hundley 2,000 - 1,600 = +400
Venable 1,475 - 1,800 = (325) 
Gregerson 1,550 - 1,300 = +250
Baker 750 -    800 = (   50) 
Thatcher 700 -    800 = (100)

TBD
Richard 2,000 
Moseley 1,800

Net...slightly over but the model was decent.  Appears that the Padres were OK with going over rather than fight.
Gotta get to the mid 50's somehow right
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Posted: 01/18/2012 9:28 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 9:43 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 



USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.
Funny thing about his away #'s at a power position is that they look very similar to Mr. Padre himself don't they ? Makes you wonder why some are in such a hurry to get rid of him doesn't it ?
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Posted: 01/18/2012 10:36 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 



TPichierri wrote:
USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.
Funny thing about his away #'s at a power position is that they look very similar to Mr. Padre himself don't they ? Makes you wonder why some are in such a hurry to get rid of him doesn't it ?
I doubt the Padres are in a hurry to trade him....$3.475MM and three years of control probably seems like a good deal considering the shortage of quality 3B in the ML.  This is where we toss in "if they are overwhelmed by an offer"...that might change. That would be easier to consider IF Gyorko lives up to his hype AAA to start the season.  Actually, the same reasons the Padres would be happy to keep him (salary / control) coupled with this non-PETCO performance and lack of quality alternatives at 3B for other MLB teams should make him a highly sought after trade target either at the trade deadline or next winter.

A lot could happen between now and the trade deadline with other teams.  Two teams that might come knocking are Detroit (especially with V Martinez out for the season) being a real contender and a major hole at 3B and Philadelphia who appear to be concerned with Polanco at age 36 holding down 3B (don't know why but just are).  Actually, given the V. Martinez situation...maybe Detroit comes around sooner.  If the Padres don't move Headley during the season...more teams should be interested in the winter with still two years control at a value price.

I would guess a low probability that he gets moved this year... evaluate Gyorko in AAA and, maybe, some ML time....then make the call....unless they are "overwhelmed" and the risk is worth it.  It all about building the best roster not the qualities of one player.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 11:27 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote:
TPichierri wrote:
USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.
Funny thing about his away #'s at a power position is that they look very similar to Mr. Padre himself don't they ? Makes you wonder why some are in such a hurry to get rid of him doesn't it ?
I doubt the Padres are in a hurry to trade him....$3.475MM and three years of control probably seems like a good deal considering the shortage of quality 3B in the ML.  This is where we toss in "if they are overwhelmed by an offer"...that might change. That would be easier to consider IF Gyorko lives up to his hype AAA to start the season.  Actually, the same reasons the Padres would be happy to keep him (salary / control) coupled with this non-PETCO performance and lack of quality alternatives at 3B for other MLB teams should make him a highly sought after trade target either at the trade deadline or next winter.

A lot could happen between now and the trade deadline with other teams.  Two teams that might come knocking are Detroit (especially with V Martinez out for the season) being a real contender and a major hole at 3B and Philadelphia who appear to be concerned with Polanco at age 36 holding down 3B (don't know why but just are).  Actually, given the V. Martinez situation...maybe Detroit comes around sooner.  If the Padres don't move Headley during the season...more teams should be interested in the winter with still two years control at a value price.

I would guess a low probability that he gets moved this year... evaluate Gyorko in AAA and, maybe, some ML time....then make the call....unless they are "overwhelmed" and the risk is worth it.  It all about building the best roster not the qualities of one player.
Lets hope Fenn.......I'd just be really happy with Headley if he can figure out a way to cut way down on the K's and get that loop out of his swing
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Posted: 01/18/2012 11:40 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


Gyorko in AAA for the start of 2012?  They sure have him on the fast track.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 11:56 AM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


No problem with Headley being around at least another year. 3B around the league are pretty terrible and as long as he's cheap, there's no reason to be in a hurry to move him. When it comes to his bat, what he lacks in power he makes up for in consistency...he's at least a .290 BA / .380 OBP hitter when he really gets going...and we need that kind of guy in the lineup, regardless of what position he plays. He's very solid in the field and (for now) his contract is certainly worth what he brings to the table.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 12:46 PM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


I don't get Gyorko in Triple-A. Maybe for a couple of weeks before he gets called up, if he's for sure going to be called up. But even if they trade Headley you give Guzman, Darnell, Forsythe some more looks IMO.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 12:56 PM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


If you really want to know how Gyoko is going to hit, then leave him in the league that has the best pitching, and park that most closely resembles how Petco plays.....until you want to call him up.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 2:07 PM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 


I wouldn't be surprised to see Gyorko start the season in AA...more about who may get bumped to AAA than whether Gyorko is ready (or not ready) for AAA.  Even if Darnell is ticketed for the OF in AAA, they may have to deal with both Forsythe and Belnome in Tucson (one at 2B and one at 3B?) to start the season.  That would give Gyorko more AA ABs (he only had a partial season) although I do think they would want him to get some AAA time before a ML call-up.  PCL pitching may be bad (much to do with the ballparks) but still a step ahead of AA pitching....note that very few position players make the successful jump from AA to the ML.

Either way...if Gyorko is what he appears to be as a hitter...he should be ready to contend for a ML 3B slot in 2013....start or mid-season.  Hopefully he makes it a tough decision for the Padres.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 2:13 PM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: I wouldn't be surprised to see Gyorko start the season in AA...more about who may get bumped to AAA than whether Gyorko is ready (or not ready) for AAA.  Even if Darnell is ticketed for the OF in AAA, they may have to deal with both Forsythe and Belnome in Tucson (one at 2B and one at 3B?) to start the season.  That would give Gyorko more AA ABs (he only had a partial season) although I do think they would want him to get some AAA time before a ML call-up.  PCL pitching may be bad (much to do with the ballparks) but still a step ahead of AA pitching....note that very few position players make the successful jump from AA to the ML.

Either way...if Gyorko is what he appears to be as a hitter...he should be ready to contend for a ML 3B slot in 2013....start or mid-season.  Hopefully he makes it a tough decision for the Padres.
Dunno FENN. If the Rizzo trade is any indication of how Byrnes handles "QB controversies" then we may end up moving Gyorko for the Koji Uehara.

I'm kidding...kind of.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 01/18/2012 3:15 PM

RE: Padres Going to Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: PCL pitching may be bad (much to do with the ballparks) but still a step ahead of AA pitching....note that very few position players make the successful jump from AA to the ML.


It seems widely accepted that AA pitching is superior to AAA, and that it's the guy that can't blow mid to high 90's that are in AAA, not the majority of quality power arms.
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