FENN68 wrote: As of now the Padres still have 11 players up for arbitration (out of about 100 left in MLB)...an unusually high count. Today is the filing date for arbitration numbers.  It will be interesting to see the new FO strategy...historically they tried to get a settlement done before the exchange of figures...and certainly worked to avoid going to arbitration.  Is the current FO taking a tougher stance and more willing to go into the arbitration hearings?

DaveyPinstripes wrote:

FENN68 wrote: As of now the Padres still have 11 players up for arbitration (out of about 100 left in MLB)...an unusually high count. Today is the filing date for arbitration numbers.  It will be interesting to see the new FO strategy...historically they tried to get a settlement done before the exchange of figures...and certainly worked to avoid going to arbitration.  Is the current FO taking a tougher stance and more willing to go into the arbitration hearings?

After the years most of these guys had...why not?

FENN68 wrote: Thatcher signs for $700K.

FENN68 wrote: Nine of the eleven have signed.  Just for amusement, I compared the signing price to a model that MLBTR uses to predict the arbitration price....signed - prediction = over(under):

Quentin 7,025 - 6,600 = +425
Headley 3,475 - 3,000 = +475
Stauffer 3,200 - 3,000 = +200
Volquez 2,237 - 2,300 = (   63)
Hundley 2,000 - 1,600 = +400
Venable 1,475 - 1,800 = (325) 
Gregerson 1,550 - 1,300 = +250
Baker 750 -    800 = (   50) 
Thatcher 700 -    800 = (100)

TBD
Richard 2,000 
Moseley 1,800

Net...slightly over but the model was decent.  Appears that the Padres were OK with going over rather than fight.

USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.

TPichierri wrote:

USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.

Funny thing about his away #'s at a power position is that they look very similar to Mr. Padre himself don't they ? Makes you wonder why some are in such a hurry to get rid of him doesn't it ?

FENN68 wrote:

TPichierri wrote:

USMC53 wrote: At 3.475 Million, Headley could be nice trade bait in July. Not too bad a price tag on a guy who hit .330/.399/.465 on in all parks not named Petco last year. We could get something nice in return as the contenders are looking for a bat next summer.

Funny thing about his away #'s at a power position is that they look very similar to Mr. Padre himself don't they ? Makes you wonder why some are in such a hurry to get rid of him doesn't it ?

I doubt the Padres are in a hurry to trade him....$3.475MM and three years of control probably seems like a good deal considering the shortage of quality 3B in the ML.  This is where we toss in "if they are overwhelmed by an offer"...that might change. That would be easier to consider IF Gyorko lives up to his hype AAA to start the season.  Actually, the same reasons the Padres would be happy to keep him (salary / control) coupled with this non-PETCO performance and lack of quality alternatives at 3B for other MLB teams should make him a highly sought after trade target either at the trade deadline or next winter.

A lot could happen between now and the trade deadline with other teams.  Two teams that might come knocking are Detroit (especially with V Martinez out for the season) being a real contender and a major hole at 3B and Philadelphia who appear to be concerned with Polanco at age 36 holding down 3B (don't know why but just are).  Actually, given the V. Martinez situation...maybe Detroit comes around sooner.  If the Padres don't move Headley during the season...more teams should be interested in the winter with still two years control at a value price.

I would guess a low probability that he gets moved this year... evaluate Gyorko in AAA and, maybe, some ML time....then make the call....unless they are "overwhelmed" and the risk is worth it.  It all about building the best roster not the qualities of one player.

FENN68 wrote: I wouldn't be surprised to see Gyorko start the season in AA...more about who may get bumped to AAA than whether Gyorko is ready (or not ready) for AAA.  Even if Darnell is ticketed for the OF in AAA, they may have to deal with both Forsythe and Belnome in Tucson (one at 2B and one at 3B?) to start the season.  That would give Gyorko more AA ABs (he only had a partial season) although I do think they would want him to get some AAA time before a ML call-up.  PCL pitching may be bad (much to do with the ballparks) but still a step ahead of AA pitching....note that very few position players make the successful jump from AA to the ML.

Either way...if Gyorko is what he appears to be as a hitter...he should be ready to contend for a ML 3B slot in 2013....start or mid-season.  Hopefully he makes it a tough decision for the Padres.

FENN68 wrote: PCL pitching may be bad (much to do with the ballparks) but still a step ahead of AA pitching....note that very few position players make the successful jump from AA to the ML.