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ANY restricted FA in 2015??

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1447 posts this site

Posted: 08/28/2014 10:08 AM

ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


If Pads don't make a late run, I was thinking I really wanted them to have no better than 10th worst record = last "protected" 1st round pick.... thought being that having a protected pick AND competitive balance pick after 1st round would put us in really good position to go after a restricted FA costing only our 2nd round pick...

.... but is there anyone decent at all that is going to fall in this category this year?
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Posted: 08/28/2014 11:30 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



brianmcon wrote: If Pads don't make a late run, I was thinking I really wanted them to have no better than 10th worst record = last "protected" 1st round pick.... thought being that having a protected pick AND competitive balance pick after 1st round would put us in really good position to go after a restricted FA costing only our 2nd round pick...

.... but is there anyone decent at all that is going to fall in this category this year?
That is only an issue if the Padres try to sign a FA who received (and declined) a qualifying offer … about $15MM for 2015. Not going to be a whole lot of those guys on the market … and fewer that are actually worth signing. Not the most compelling FA class (except for a few SP). If they sign a FA or two …  probably not that major.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 12:11 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


Not many impact, franchise-changing, type free agents this year. Having said that, there are quite a few players that could realistically be signed and improve this team.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 4:11 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


We desperately need an outfielder( you pick the position)that can play every day, against both left and right handed pitchers. Of course, he needs to be good too.

With $15 million bucks to spend, we should be able to find someone who fits that description.
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Posted: 08/29/2014 6:34 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



WindsorUK wrote: We desperately need an outfielder( you pick the position)that can play every day, against both left and right handed pitchers. Of course, he needs to be good too.

With $15 million bucks to spend, we should be able to find someone who fits that description.
Might want to look at the 2015 FA list …. don't think you will find any candidates who fit that description.  Nelson Cruz (34) is the most productive but if he would settle for $15MM he would just stay with Baltimore (where he is successful and a playoff team) … would need to go greater than $15MM and multi-year (risk at his age). Maybe Cuddyer (35) but only 34 games in 2014 and 101 in 2012 … was good but age may be catching up … the next Quentin? After that ???? worth $15MM … at a lot of use to be and never was type players. Would be a stretch to dish that out for Melky Cabrera (30) who will also get a multi-year deal from a contender (like a Toronto resign) but in PETCO (vs. Toronto) would not see that much power which moots his value.

I expect that Cruz and Cabrera will get those $15MM qualifying offers … resulting in signing will be a loss of a draft pick.

Last edited 08/29/2014 6:36 AM by FENN68

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Posted: 08/29/2014 7:47 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


I don't like the idea of another injury risk but what Cuddyer brings with the bat is
exactly what we need.RH bat with great contact rate(BA) with some power.
Also.... Injury history/age would keep cost and length of contract reasonable.
I would not be upset if he were in the lineup next year....





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
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Posted: 08/29/2014 8:12 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



FENN68 wrote:
WindsorUK wrote: We desperately need an outfielder( you pick the position)that can play every day, against both left and right handed pitchers. Of course, he needs to be good too.

With $15 million bucks to spend, we should be able to find someone who fits that description.
Might want to look at the 2015 FA list …. don't think you will find any candidates who fit that description.  Nelson Cruz (34) is the most productive but if he would settle for $15MM he would just stay with Baltimore (where he is successful and a playoff team) … would need to go greater than $15MM and multi-year (risk at his age). Maybe Cuddyer (35) but only 34 games in 2014 and 101 in 2012 … was good but age may be catching up … the next Quentin? After that ???? worth $15MM … at a lot of use to be and never was type players. Would be a stretch to dish that out for Melky Cabrera (30) who will also get a multi-year deal from a contender (like a Toronto resign) but in PETCO (vs. Toronto) would not see that much power which moots his value.

I expect that Cruz and Cabrera will get those $15MM qualifying offers … resulting in signing will be a loss of a draft pick.
Well, IF we're out of it (LAD win this series, 9 games out of WC on Sept 1st), I'd rather see us sitting in that #11 (or lower) protected pick than #12 or higher, but the weak Sept schedule has me thinking we're going to end up right in middle around #14-15.
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Posted: 08/29/2014 9:00 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



MrPadre19 wrote: I don't like the idea of another injury risk but what Cuddyer brings with the bat is
exactly what we need.RH bat with great contact rate(BA) with some power.
Also.... Injury history/age would keep cost and length of contract reasonable.
I would not be upset if he were in the lineup next year....
At what cost? Not sure what "reasonable" is dollar wise but would not expect him (given the 4 DL stints this year) to get anything more than a one year deal.
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Posted: 08/29/2014 12:30 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


We should definitely open up the wallet for the 36 year old, breaking down OF coming from Coors Field.
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Posted: 08/29/2014 2:09 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


No won't happen, Byrnes is gone.

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Posted: 08/29/2014 2:59 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



FENN68 wrote:
WindsorUK wrote: We desperately need an outfielder( you pick the position)that can play every day, against both left and right handed pitchers. Of course, he needs to be good too.

With $15 million bucks to spend, we should be able to find someone who fits that description.
Might want to look at the 2015 FA list …. don't think you will find any candidates who fit that description.  Nelson Cruz (34) is the most productive but if he would settle for $15MM he would just stay with Baltimore (where he is successful and a playoff team) … would need to go greater than $15MM and multi-year (risk at his age). Maybe Cuddyer (35) but only 34 games in 2014 and 101 in 2012 … was good but age may be catching up … the next Quentin? After that ???? worth $15MM … at a lot of use to be and never was type players. Would be a stretch to dish that out for Melky Cabrera (30) who will also get a multi-year deal from a contender (like a Toronto resign) but in PETCO (vs. Toronto) would not see that much power which moots his value.

I expect that Cruz and Cabrera will get those $15MM qualifying offers … resulting in signing will be a loss of a draft pick.
Yikes! That looks terribly bleak........I guess the new GM will have to work the phones to get us that every day outfielder.

All I know is I'm sick and tired of Bud shifting guys in and out of the lineup, on a daily basis, because these guys( supposedly) aren't good enoguh ball players to play every day.

Liriano.so far at least, looks as if he belongs. Smith just signed an extension, so he'll be around next year at least. That leaves 1 spot open....no more Venables( although I'm happy with Will as our 4th outfielder), Maybin(just get rid of him), Amarista( he's a middle infielder for crying out loud!),Almonte( nothing special) Medica or Goebert( both should be 1st baseman). Hell, Bud's now talking about having Peterson play outfield in the Arizona fall league. JESUS! Stop this nonsense and just get an outfielder.
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
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Posted: 09/11/2014 8:21 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


With 17 games in a row left after last off day, Pads are sitting at #11 (last protected draft pick)... at moment in a group of 3 teams:  Phillies, Pads, Reds.  Phils are @ #10 with tiebreaker (worse record last yr) over us, we hold tiebreaker over Reds, who have 2 more wins.

Rangers locked into #1, Astros get #2 for screwing up last yr, Rox & Dbacks look like locks for #3-4.  Pads unlikely to fall (climb?) any lower than #7.  Real issue would be 12 or higher removing option of signing an RFA such as:

Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera once again presents quite an interesting free agent case, as Mike Petriello of Fangraphs explores. Heading into his age-30 season, Cabrera is very well-placed in the upcoming free agent market, and Petriello thinks that a three or four-year deal makes sense in spite of Cabrera’s baggage. Some clubs will be willing to forgive his previous PED issues, and Petriello notes that a qualifying offer may not be a major impediment if teams with a protected first-round pick — he suggests the Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Padres, and potentially the Reds and Mets — make a run at Cabrera. Ultimately, his value could settle somewhere in the range of three years and ~$40MM up to Curtis Granderson‘s four-year, $60MM deal.


Guy has PED baggage, so may be wrong guy, but IMO fits profile of what team needs:  top of order proven consistent vet bat that knows how to get on base & have a professional AB.
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Posted: 09/11/2014 11:50 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 



Moldenke wrote: We should definitely open up the wallet for the 36 year old, breaking down OF coming from Coors Field.
My point being that we are NEVER gonna get a top bat who is completely healthy........so where to you guys intend to improve offensively?
If,because of his injury history,he will sign a one year deal......where's the risk?
If we can do it for Josh Johnson when our pitching is good why not Cuddyer when we "desperately" need offense?

I'm not saying he would be ideal but we need bats and they will be hard to entice to this team.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 09/11/2014 11:51 AM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


Melky does seem legit without the roids, doesn't he. But I wonder if the Padres ownership would dare go down that road again. There's comes a point when the product your selling looks tainted (via past roiders/PED users) and begins to lose basic credibility as an honest franchise (or whatever the worst-case scenario is). Really seems like the owners would be at least somewhat nervous about getting another guy with roid use in his past - especially knowing what penalties might await if he goes back on roids (potentially wasting a lot of money). Of course they are desperate for hitting.
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Posted: 09/11/2014 4:52 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


Don't think it is either Melky's PEDs or Cuddyer's injuries that will be the limiting factor … it is the terms of the contract required to get them to sign.

With Melky … he is basically a LF these days (been in LF for 3 years now) and if the reports are valid will potentially get a deal in the 4 year / $60 MM range (give or take on the dollars). With Smith (the Padres best hitter in LF/RF and under contract for 2 more years) a signing would effectively block Liriano from playing time and even put up a delay in the arrival of Renfroe. Could that $15MM / year be put to better use trying to fill a different position … Padres have a lot of spot to upgrade? Would adding Melky with that contract make the Padres a playoff team or just a better .500 ball club? 

Same logic with Cuddyer (although he could probably handle 1B) … no idea what the Rockies (or any other team is going to put on the table) and would worry a bit about inflated Colo stats.

I would guess that the owners are a bit skeptical of the risk / reward analysis presented by the previous GM … therefore a bit less willing to go that route with Preller (if that is Preller's thinking) … consider:

1. New owners buy the club in August of 2012 … payroll of $55MM … W-L record of 76-86 (.469)
2. New owners allow Byrnes to add $17MM to the payroll to $72MM … W-L record of 76-86 (.469) … no improvement
3. New owners allow Byrnes to add $18MM to the payroll to $90MM  (highest Padre payroll ever by about $17MM) …. if the Padres go 9-8 in their last 17 games they will have a W-L record of 76-86 … no improvement
4. In two years they added $35MM to the payroll (+64%) and have gotten no improvement

That alone should make them question the logic behind signing any of the current bigger ticket Padres which in turn should make them re think the signing strategy on future players. Maybe Preller has a better evaluation scheme that did Byrnes … but whether it was Quentin / Johnson as injury rebounds, Benoit / Street as back of the pen RP on a team than has no offense, Headley as a rebound candidate in his walk year, or the early extension of Maybin, Hundley, Luebke, and Gyorko. Basically that is a lot of money tossed out with no team improvement. Taking a risk is one thing … having those risks constantly fail is just failure and gets someone fired.

So, just guessing, but I think the length and price of contracts for Cabrera and Cuddyer will not fit into the longer plans of the Padres and would not get them to be a playoff team in 2015. On the other hand, I have noticed that Johnson has been with the team (rehabbing) almost the entire season post-surgery … the Padres should have a real good idea on his recovery status and if it is looking good … for $4MM in 2015 it may be worth picking up allowing for potentially trading one of the existing SP for a hitter.

Last edited 09/11/2014 4:54 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 09/11/2014 5:34 PM

Re: ANY restricted FA in 2015?? 


If I was the Padres I would sign Melky and put him in the outfield for now. We could always teach him 1B later on when needed. Can Melky play 3B at all?

I'm sure there's a spot for a .300 hitter in this line up. Of course he'll be expensive but if you want to win you have to start acquiring players that are consistent producers.
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