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Another Arm Bites the Dust

Posted: 08/15/2014 12:41 PM

Another Arm Bites the Dust 


http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/aug/15/padres-max-fried-tommy-john-surgery/

Max Fried to undergo Tommy John.

How does that Hedges, Fried, +1 or 2 prospects for Stanton sound now?

Padres Baseball: Waiting until next year since 1969.

Last edited 08/15/2014 12:42 PM by UncleBolt

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Posted: 08/15/2014 1:02 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


Oh No! We suck again!
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Posted: 08/15/2014 1:08 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



UncleBolt wrote: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/aug/15/padres-max-fried-tommy-john-surgery/

Max Fried to undergo Tommy John.

How does that Hedges, Fried, +1 or 2 prospects for Stanton sound now?
Oh, is that an offer that was actually on the table?
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Posted: 08/15/2014 1:08 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


There's only one solution to this.

MLB must legalize bionics.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 1:37 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


As much as I love having a Farm full of great prospects it just doesn't make sense to expect even 5% of them to be great major leaguers.
Trade them for "proven" players whenever it makes sense.
By that I mean for guys we need.....who we can afford to at least keep for a bit......who aren't huge injury risks,etc...
For example...even Hedges.
Even if he does turn out to be a great defensive Catcher.....how well can we really expect him to produce at the plate?
Pitchers?......either they get hurt or they implode when they hit El Paso.
Keep the hitters(because we really can't replace them easily)(and by hitters I mean the Lirianos,Renfroes etc..) but if you get a chance to trade pitchers in A,or AA who have good value,I just think it's smart business.
As we have mentioned many times we can sign FA pitchers if needed.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/15/2014 1:50 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


Even though I saw that coming a mile away it still sucks to see it happen to one of our best arms. I hope he can recover.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 2:26 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


Preller must be wondering what he got himself into.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 3:35 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



ChargersWinII wrote: Preller must be wondering what he got himself into.
I can't imagine Preller didn't know about this before he took the job.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 4:58 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



Moldenke wrote:
ChargersWinII wrote: Preller must be wondering what he got himself into.
I can't imagine Preller didn't know about this before he took the job.


The problem is there are big questions remaining at this point. Cashner, Alonso are two big questions. Will they ever play again? How much? Do you trade them and get what you can or wait and hope they build more trade value? Alonso can be good when he's healthy...just like Cashner.

And then you have perennial question marks in Luebke, Casey Kelly, Erlin, and Wieland. WTH is going on with them? What do you do with them exactly? When do you cut bait?

Of course there's all the bloated contract players...Venable, Gyorko (this year), Quentin, Maybin, and Johnson. Did I miss anyone? Do you just keep them all while they drain your organization?

It all resembles a stagnant stinky cess pool.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 5:31 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



ChargersWinII wrote:
Moldenke wrote:
ChargersWinII wrote: Preller must be wondering what he got himself into.
I can't imagine Preller didn't know about this before he took the job.


The problem is there are big questions remaining at this point. Cashner, Alonso are two big questions. Will they ever play again? How much? Do you trade them and get what you can or wait and hope they build more trade value? Alonso can be good when he's healthy...just like Cashner.

And then you have perennial question marks in Luebke, Casey Kelly, Erlin, and Wieland. WTH is going on with them? What do you do with them exactly? When do you cut bait?

Of course there's all the bloated contract players...Venable, Gyorko (this year), Quentin, Maybin, and Johnson. Did I miss anyone? Do you just keep them all while they drain your organization?

It all resembles a stagnant stinky cess pool.
You're wondering if Cashner and Alonso will ever play again?
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Posted: 08/15/2014 5:37 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



Moldenke wrote:
ChargersWinII wrote:
Moldenke wrote:
ChargersWinII wrote: Preller must be wondering what he got himself into.
I can't imagine Preller didn't know about this before he took the job.


The problem is there are big questions remaining at this point. Cashner, Alonso are two big questions. Will they ever play again? How much? Do you trade them and get what you can or wait and hope they build more trade value? Alonso can be good when he's healthy...just like Cashner.

And then you have perennial question marks in Luebke, Casey Kelly, Erlin, and Wieland. WTH is going on with them? What do you do with them exactly? When do you cut bait?

Of course there's all the bloated contract players...Venable, Gyorko (this year), Quentin, Maybin, and Johnson. Did I miss anyone? Do you just keep them all while they drain your organization?

It all resembles a stagnant stinky cess pool.
You're wondering if Cashner and Alonso will ever play again?


Full seasons...Yes.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 6:27 PM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


I'm with you Fred.

Trade Cashner and Alonso for anything you can get . Same goes for Maybin and Quentin.

I'm keeping Venable because he's cheap and when hot, can carry the team for a few weeks. And Gyorko looks much better now that his foot has healed: I'm keepjng him too.

As for the young pitchers, keep them until healthy, unless of course someone wants to give us someone healthy in return.

I hope the new GM looks into the organizations philosophy re: pitchers. It's obvious treating these guys with kid gloves isn't working. I say let them play long toss in the outfield, throw footballs, swim, stay away from the weight room, and ditch the pitch count.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 8:10 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


I'm always whining about consistency. So I want to ask you guys something.

Is it just me, or does it seem like baseball is much more volatile than it used to be. Lineups change more often. Players get hurt more often. Player performance fluctuates more.

I know it could just be my impression. So that's why I want to know what y'alls think.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 8:16 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



WindsorUK wrote: I'm with you Fred.

Trade Cashner and Alonso for anything you can get . Same goes for Maybin and Quentin.

I'm keeping Venable because he's cheap and when hot, can carry the team for a few weeks. And Gyorko looks much better now that his foot has healed: I'm keepjng him too.

As for the young pitchers, keep them until healthy, unless of course someone wants to give us someone healthy in return.

I hope the new GM looks into the organizations philosophy re: pitchers. It's obvious treating these guys with kid gloves isn't working. I say let them play long toss in the outfield, throw footballs, swim, stay away from the weight room, and ditch the pitch count.
At this stage the organization's philosophy re: pitchers is not better or worse than other organizations .. the TJ issues is rampant in all organized baseball (1/3 of ML pitchers have had TJ at some point in their careers). Texas (under Ryan) went with the work them hard and long (supposedly like the old days) and it has not helped them after a brief illusionary success. Remember a few years back the Padres were not having any major injuries with their pitchers and were getting praised … then for no apparent reason the pendulum went the other way.

I have sort of moved to the acceptance of the TJ surgeries and a large number of pitchers will lose a season to them … annoying yes but just now another factor in player development. Some will not recover but then again some would have never developed … some will recover and never develop … some will recover and become ML pitchers (Hahn for example). Let the bigger picture play out at the ML baseball level in addressing this issue … Padres need to focus on how to most effectively construct a roster (now and for the future) that recognizes this reality of baseball.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 8:35 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



LevelAgain wrote: I'm always whining about consistency. So I want to ask you guys something.

Is it just me, or does it seem like baseball is much more volatile than it used to be. Lineups change more often. Players get hurt more often. Player performance fluctuates more.

I know it could just be my impression. So that's why I want to know what y'alls think.
I see what you are seeing … and expect it to get more noticeable as time goes on … frustrating to we old timers.

1. With the trend towards the young, computer based FO personnel … the statistical benefit of match-ups and defensive shifts is difficult to ignore. Now these statistical based front offices have a growing role as GMs and key roles that direct the field manager on how to construct the line up … and if they don't go with that concept they get a manger who will. So I would expect more "pitcher - hitter" match ups, more line-up shifting to match the pitcher and the ballpark, and defensively significantly more player / situational shifting. 

2. Does appear that players are on the DL more often … not sure if that is because of more injuries (logic being that the year long training regiment and size increase in the players … even without steroids … may put too much strain on parts of the body that were not designed for that pressure) or if that is because the team is more "cautious" with the high cost assets combined with the players not feeling as compelled to risk a bigger injury by pushing themselves to play (in par at that could be from lack of real competition for their roster spot). We should see this trade to remain if not get worse.

3. As for more extreme fluctuations in performance … could be a function of both #1 and #2 above. There is something to be said for being in the line-up every day that normalizes the hot and cold streaks keeping players closer to their norm. If the player is either hot or cold and is out of the line-up that extreme lingers (statistically). 

The on the field game is really changing … will not likely reboot to the past.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 8:59 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



FENN68 wrote:
WindsorUK wrote: I'm with you Fred.

Trade Cashner and Alonso for anything you can get . Same goes for Maybin and Quentin.

I'm keeping Venable because he's cheap and when hot, can carry the team for a few weeks. And Gyorko looks much better now that his foot has healed: I'm keepjng him too.

As for the young pitchers, keep them until healthy, unless of course someone wants to give us someone healthy in return.

I hope the new GM looks into the organizations philosophy re: pitchers. It's obvious treating these guys with kid gloves isn't working. I say let them play long toss in the outfield, throw footballs, swim, stay away from the weight room, and ditch the pitch count.
At this stage the organization's philosophy re: pitchers is not better or worse than other organizations .. the TJ issues is rampant in all organized baseball (1/3 of ML pitchers have had TJ at some point in their careers). Texas (under Ryan) went with the work them hard and long (supposedly like the old days) and it has not helped them after a brief illusionary success. Remember a few years back the Padres were not having any major injuries with their pitchers and were getting praised … then for no apparent reason the pendulum went the other way.

I have sort of moved to the acceptance of the TJ surgeries and a large number of pitchers will lose a season to them … annoying yes but just now another factor in player development. Some will not recover but then again some would have never developed … some will recover and never develop … some will recover and become ML pitchers (Hahn for example). Let the bigger picture play out at the ML baseball level in addressing this issue … Padres need to focus on how to most effectively construct a roster (now and for the future) that recognizes this reality of baseball.
Nothing has worked so far.

Teams employ different strategies, but nothing seems effective so far.  Taylor Guerreri had thrown all of 100 innings over 2+ years with the Rays, and he went down.  Jameson Taillon threw 90% fastballs and he went down.  It just sort of seems unstoppable and inevitable.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 9:41 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


Could you imagine how good our rotation would have been if we had a healthy Luebke in there pitching as he did a couple years ago and a healthy Cashner?
Wow
Cashner-Ross-Kennedy-Luebke-Hahn.

I guess we need to just forget about these TJ guys and consider it a bonus if/when they return.
Nothing really else we can do.
If in a couple years we are seeing Luebke and Fried back on the mound then great.It will be a bonus.
I'm just hoping we see Erlin,Wieland,and Kelly at this point.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/16/2014 10:05 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



MrPadre19 wrote: Could you imagine how good our rotation would have been if we had a healthy Luebke in there pitching as he did a couple years ago and a healthy Cashner?
Wow
Cashner-Ross-Kennedy-Luebke-Hahn.

I guess we need to just forget about these TJ guys and consider it a bonus if/when they return.
Nothing really else we can do.
If in a couple years we are seeing Luebke and Fried back on the mound then great.It will be a bonus.
I'm just hoping we see Erlin,Wieland,and Kelly at this point.
Including Luebke, we have four guys who have missed significant time over the last two years that could be valuable starting pitchers in the majors right now.  It's crazy to think about.  That's not even including Johnson.

We could literally make a second, MLB-caliber rotation with guys who have had elbow problems since 2012.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 10:49 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 


If in the "old days" the line was "you never have enough pitching" … in the current day and age that is even more true … I guess volume is creeping up on quality as a factor in determining MiL stocking.  

Note looks like the LAD may now DL Ryu …. they had to trade for Corriea and Germano, two guy that are just guys pitching without much distinction.  The injuries to pitchers does also make a case … especially for mid-market teams … to not enter long term / big money contracts with pitchers …. the injury risk is too high and too unpredictable. I guess you shoot more for the Ross / Hahn profile of younger with controllable years with a low cost … if they get injured less of a roadblock to building out the roster but if a big ticket guy gets injured that could cripple the organization for years. Adds to the case for NOT trying to extend Cashner and move him sooner than later … in a year or two that may be the same issue with Ross. Save the extensions (speaking of the FA years here) to position players who at least have a lower probably of long term injury if they are healthy when they are extended.
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Posted: 08/16/2014 11:09 AM

Re: Another Arm Bites the Dust 



FENN68 wrote: If in the "old days" the line was "you never have enough pitching" … in the current day and age that is even more true … I guess volume is creeping up on quality as a factor in determining MiL stocking.  

Note looks like the LAD may now DL Ryu …. they had to trade for Corriea and Germano, two guy that are just guys pitching without much distinction.  The injuries to pitchers does also make a case … especially for mid-market teams … to not enter long term / big money contracts with pitchers …. the injury risk is too high and too unpredictable. I guess you shoot more for the Ross / Hahn profile of younger with controllable years with a low cost … if they get injured less of a roadblock to building out the roster but if a big ticket guy gets injured that could cripple the organization for years. Adds to the case for NOT trying to extend Cashner and move him sooner than later … in a year or two that may be the same issue with Ross. Save the extensions (speaking of the FA years here) to position players who at least have a lower probably of long term injury if they are healthy when they are extended.
Look at the Tigers and Verlander.  That's going to be the worst contract in baseball in pretty short order.

I think the best thing to do with pitchers is to get them and extend them until they're just north of 30 and then cut bait.  I feel like the market price for elite pitchers has got to come back down to earth eventually.  I'd rather pay a pitcher 30 million a year for 4 years than 20 a year for seven. 

But honestly I think mega contracts never work out to begin with.  Mike Trout is an exception because he signed it when he was like 20.
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