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Cole Hamels

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Posted: 08/07/2014 4:52 PM

Cole Hamels 


Cole Hamels claimed off waiver by unidentified team

"This doesn't mean Hamels is going to be traded. The Phillies have an incredibly steep price for their ace and had no offers before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. This is a procedural move as much as anything. Plus, Hamels has a limited no-trade clause, so he could block a trade to any team other than the Angels, Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees."



Hamels would be expensive. Could that be the Padres and would they go for him? At the very least I hope he stays out of the NL West.


 

Last edited 08/07/2014 4:54 PM by ultratvfan

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Posted: 08/07/2014 5:11 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


You're asking that rhetorically, right?

Because you, me, everyone here, already know the answer to that question.
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Posted: 08/07/2014 5:29 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


Yes.

I know it is wishful thinking. But we can dream.



UPDATE!

He was claimed by the Cubs.



 

Last edited 08/07/2014 5:35 PM by ultratvfan

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Posted: 08/07/2014 6:59 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


Devil's advocate here …. I give it a 0.44% chance in a pre-Winter Meetings trade. There is logic (albeit a real stretch).

1. Phils will not trade Hamels to the Cubs now … will wait for an open season with all the teams in play.  Window for the Cubs now is just a few more hours and the Phils are asking for a haul of top tier prospects.

2. With the departures of Headley, Street, et. al and even after the arbitration decisions .. the Padres will have about $25 MM to spend if the Padres do go to the $100MM mark in 2015 as was reported a couple of days ago. More room in 2016 with Quentin / Benoit / Venable off the books.

3. Although the Padres need some middle of the order impact bats … are there any real IMPACT middle order bats on the market … probably not.

4. Hamels is an IMPACT #1 SP … bundled with Ross, Kennedy, Cashner, and Hahn the Padres would have one of the best SP staffs in MLB.

5. So would the Padres make the inquires on Hamels (Padres are one of the teams that he does not have a no trade block) … probably yes.

Now the specifics of a trade:

a. Hamels is under contract for 5 more years (through age 35) at about $22.5 MM per year … risk yes.

b. IF (and these are the big IFs) …. IF the Phils would eat $7.5MM for each of the next 5 years the contract would effectively be $15MM / year … a bargain for a pitcher like Hamels …. the Phils want top prospects and IF they would take Hedges (or Grandal), Wisler, Liriano, and a lower level prospect like Eflin that may be worth it for the Padres to create a shut down SP staff. 

c. The key for the Phils is finding a team that would give better prospects and take more of the contract … possible but not a certainty.

So, a 0.44% chance … but it would be a statement move by the ownership. Bet that the current hitters produce bolstered in 2015-16 by Renfroe, Dickerson, Asencio, et. al plus some lower profile short term bats to fill the voids. Can't find the impact bats … get the impact pitcher.

Last edited 08/07/2014 7:00 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 08/07/2014 7:08 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



FENN68 wrote: Devil's advocate here …. I give it a 0.44% chance in a pre-Winter Meetings trade. There is logic (albeit a real stretch).

1. Phils will not trade Hamels to the Cubs now … will wait for an open season with all the teams in play.  Window for the Cubs now is just a few more hours and the Phils are asking for a haul of top tier prospects.

2. With the departures of Headley, Street, et. al and even after the arbitration decisions .. the Padres will have about $25 MM to spend if the Padres do go to the $100MM mark in 2015 as was reported a couple of days ago. More room in 2016 with Quentin / Benoit / Venable off the books.

3. Although the Padres need some middle of the order impact bats … are there any real IMPACT middle order bats on the market … probably not.

4. Hamels is an IMPACT #1 SP … bundled with Ross, Kennedy, Cashner, and Hahn the Padres would have one of the best SP staffs in MLB.

5. So would the Padres make the inquires on Hamels (Padres are one of the teams that he does not have a no trade block) … probably yes.

Now the specifics of a trade:

a. Hamels is under contract for 5 more years (through age 35) at about $22.5 MM per year … risk yes.

b. IF (and these are the big IFs) …. IF the Phils would eat $7.5MM for each of the next 5 years the contract would effectively be $15MM / year … a bargain for a pitcher like Hamels …. the Phils want top prospects and IF they would take Hedges (or Grandal), Wisler, Liriano, and a lower level prospect like Eflin that may be worth it for the Padres to create a shut down SP staff. 

c. The key for the Phils is finding a team that would give better prospects and take more of the contract … possible but not a certainty.

So, a 0.44% chance … but it would be a statement move by the ownership. Bet that the current hitters produce bolstered in 2015-16 by Renfroe, Dickerson, Asencio, et. al plus some lower profile short term bats to fill the voids. Can't find the impact bats … get the impact pitcher.
The more I've thought about this, the more I think the Pads would do this to make a splash with the new GM.  I disagree on the return though.  I think less given the Price deal.  More like Hahn, Hedges, Spagenberg, and Cordero.

 

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Posted: 08/07/2014 11:20 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


I think there's a 99.99% probability that you spent 100% too much time coming up with your 0.44% chance.

Last edited 08/07/2014 11:21 PM by LevelAgain

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Posted: 08/08/2014 12:11 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 


I don't know if any one knows this or not, but Hamels is from San Diego.


 
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Posted: 08/08/2014 3:31 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 





---------------------------------------------
--- FENN68 wrote:

Devil's advocate here …. I give it a 0.44% chance in a pre-Winter Meetings trade. There is logic (albeit a real stretch).

1. Phils will not trade Hamels to the Cubs now … will wait for an open season with all the teams in play.  Window for the Cubs now is just a few more hours and the Phils are asking for a haul of top tier prospects.

2. With the departures of Headley, Street, et. al and even after the arbitration decisions .. the Padres will have about $25 MM to spend if the Padres do go to the $100MM mark in 2015 as was reported a couple of days ago. More room in 2016 with Quentin / Benoit / Venable off the books.

3. Although the Padres need some middle of the order impact bats … are there any real IMPACT middle order bats on the market … probably not.

4. Hamels is an IMPACT #1 SP … bundled with Ross, Kennedy, Cashner, and Hahn the Padres would have one of the best SP staffs in MLB.

5. So would the Padres make the inquires on Hamels (Padres are one of the teams that he does not have a no trade block) … probably yes.

Now the specifics of a trade:

a. Hamels is under contract for 5 more years (through age 35) at about $22.5 MM per year … risk yes.

b. IF (and these are the big IFs) …. IF the Phils would eat $7.5MM for each of the next 5 years the contract would effectively be $15MM / year … a bargain for a pitcher like Hamels …. the Phils want top prospects and IF they would take Hedges (or Grandal), Wisler, Liriano, and a lower level prospect like Eflin that may be worth it for the Padres to create a shut down SP staff. 

c. The key for the Phils is finding a team that would give better prospects and take more of the contract … possible but not a certainty.

So, a 0.44% chance … but it would be a statement move by the ownership. Bet that the current hitters produce bolstered in 2015-16 by Renfroe, Dickerson, Asencio, et. al plus some lower profile short term bats to fill the voids. Can't find the impact bats … get the impact pitcher.

---------------------------------------------


So......you're telling me there's a chance!

m.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/08/2014 9:10 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 



FENN68 wrote:

b. IF (and these are the big IFs) …. IF the Phils would eat $7.5MM for each of the next 5 years the contract would effectively be $15MM / year … a bargain for a pitcher like Hamels …. the Phils want top prospects and IF they would take Hedges (or Grandal), Wisler, Liriano, and a lower level prospect like Eflin that may be worth it for the Padres to create a shut down SP staff. 

We'll see what the team ends having available to spend since I expect some guys (perhaps expensive) to not be on the roster as well in 2015. As far as this return...it seems steep, but I also think it would be worth it, if you take out Wisler. Remember what prospects have been worth recently in deals? Going to trade two potentially top 50 prospects plus a former top prospect as well (who may break back into top 100)? I think they can get a little more creative.

However, I don't think SD entertains this simply based on something Preller said in his press conference. He emphasized the need for the Padres to bring in more talent but to also subsequently recognize their "window of opportunity". At that point he said he expects ownership to come in and give the extra resources necessary (kind of like the DBacks did this year--bumped payroll to $110MM--to go for it). Just doesn't seem like the moment in which he'd try and trade a few top prospects. I'd look at free agency or rebound trade targets. That is, unless he sees our top prospects as entirely overrated.

Anyways, like you said, aint gonna happen.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 10:03 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 



DaveyPinstripes wrote:
FENN68 wrote:

b. IF (and these are the big IFs) …. IF the Phils would eat $7.5MM for each of the next 5 years the contract would effectively be $15MM / year … a bargain for a pitcher like Hamels …. the Phils want top prospects and IF they would take Hedges (or Grandal), Wisler, Liriano, and a lower level prospect like Eflin that may be worth it for the Padres to create a shut down SP staff. 

We'll see what the team ends having available to spend since I expect some guys (perhaps expensive) to not be on the roster as well in 2015. As far as this return...it seems steep, but I also think it would be worth it, if you take out Wisler. Remember what prospects have been worth recently in deals? Going to trade two potentially top 50 prospects plus a former top prospect as well (who may break back into top 100)? I think they can get a little more creative.

However, I don't think SD entertains this simply based on something Preller said in his press conference. He emphasized the need for the Padres to bring in more talent but to also subsequently recognize their "window of opportunity". At that point he said he expects ownership to come in and give the extra resources necessary (kind of like the DBacks did this year--bumped payroll to $110MM--to go for it). Just doesn't seem like the moment in which he'd try and trade a few top prospects. I'd look at free agency or rebound trade targets. That is, unless he sees our top prospects as entirely overrated.

Anyways, like you said, aint gonna happen.
that "window of opportunity" is a tough one to deal with … purely an evaluation of the roster by the decision makers … and in this case the owners are the only ones that matter … getting into their minds is not easy although from the time they took over through last winter and to a degree what the appear to be saying now they may think the Padres are closer than most fans. Right or wrong .. it is what they think that will make decisions.

They could look at the strength of the roster … SP … and see Kennedy a FA after 2015, Cashner a FA after 2016 (and apparently not eager to sign an extension) … and Benoit an old FA after 2016. That is ML talent … might consider it quite a leap to assume that the pitching prospects will come in and achieve that success in anything close to the near term … so that window may get pushed out for 3-5 years from a pitching perspective.

On the other hand, the best IMPACT player available could be Hamels … who would be controlled for 5 years and who would create a elite SP staff in 2015 while the "window of opportunity" (in their minds) is open the widest. His addition would not preclude them for filling some positional needs with lower cost "bounce back" players.

So, if the dollars can be worked out, the price for 5 years of an IMPACT player / All-Star top of the rotation pitcher is 2-3 of the Padres top prospects who have yet to prove anything on the ML stage, not out of the question for this ownership. As easy as it is to project Hedges, Wisler, and Liriano as future stars … just as easy to see Hedges as a .200 ML hitter, Wisler a mid-rotation SP, and Liriano as a serviceable MLer with a average bat that strikes out too much. The odds are normally against any group of top prospects all delivering their up side … so if reality makes the owners think only one would achieve his full potential and the others would be nothing special … maybe giving the prospects is less of a concern.

Phils at this stage are looking more at a return like Samardzija … a top 10 (Russell), a major prospect in the come in McKinney, Strailey, plus and probably not eat any money. Doubt the get that …. since few teams have that wealth of prospects (and would be willing to trade them) plus have the budget to take the contract. Add that Hamels has a no trade clause to about 20 teams:

  • Limited no-trade protection (may block trades to 20 clubs each season); (for 2014, may block deals to all clubs except Atlanta, Boston, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, San Diego, St. Louis, Texas and Washington)


Phils will "play" with this one but should settle for less by either eating a big chunk of the contract (and get a better haul in prospects which is their prime target) or, less likely, focus on moving the contract and forgoing the better prospect quest.  Given those teams (if they will be in play for Hamels) most have the resources to take more contract and some have the prospect inventory … making a Padre bid difficult unless they put up the better prospects.

A lot of hypothetical here … but in reality not going to happen.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 10:17 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 



FENN68 wrote:
that "window of opportunity" is a tough one to deal with … purely an evaluation of the roster by the decision makers … and in this case the owners are the only ones that matter … getting into their minds is not easy although from the time they took over through last winter and to a degree what the appear to be saying now they may think the Padres are closer than most fans. Right or wrong .. it is what they think that will make decisions.

I took his referring to "recognizing the window of opportunity" and statement that things are going to be bumpy in the short term means he doesn't feel like that window is now, and his further (and obvious) claim that the Padres need serious infusion of talent, also adds to this probably. I guess we'll see how quickly he think he can close the gap. Excited to see how he operates/moves he makes. Sounds like there could be a little turnover.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 11:07 AM

Re: Cole Hamels 



DaveyPinstripes wrote:
FENN68 wrote:
that "window of opportunity" is a tough one to deal with … purely an evaluation of the roster by the decision makers … and in this case the owners are the only ones that matter … getting into their minds is not easy although from the time they took over through last winter and to a degree what the appear to be saying now they may think the Padres are closer than most fans. Right or wrong .. it is what they think that will make decisions.

I took his referring to "recognizing the window of opportunity" and statement that things are going to be bumpy in the short term means he doesn't feel like that window is now, and his further (and obvious) claim that the Padres need serious infusion of talent, also adds to this probably. I guess we'll see how quickly he think he can close the gap. Excited to see how he operates/moves he makes. Sounds like there could be a little turnover.
I do expect movement and some significant roster modifications … not likely he sits pat. Just tuck in the back of the mind that if you look at the Texas 25 man roster (plus the 13 DL players) … few (and none impact) were developed in the Texas system … all the key players were via trade / FA. If Preller is a product of the environment …. should see some dealing and might see a more liberal inclusion of prospects in deals to get more valuable returns.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 12:06 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


I would think he already has "some" familiarity with our Farm system.
If "I" can know a little about every Farm system...and alot about the Padres....and if I can know "alot" about every teams major league roster......all while holding down a 50 hour a week job "outside" of baseball AND raise three boys,you would think a ML Asst GM would know quite a bit about our ML team and at least have a working knowledge of our Farm.
I realize he needs to know "alot" more than that......but it's not like he doesn't know who/what Amarista is and he should at least know something about our top 20 prospects.
So,it shouldn't take him all that long to get up to speed IMO.

I wonder if these Asst GM's play fantasy baseball?
Seriously....In the extremely Deep league I'm in it pays to know entire 25 man rosters AND top 20 prospects and their ETA's.
Just curious.

On Hamels.....While it would be great,and as was said,far fetched that we would go after him,I would think A.J.'s first priority is going to be to improve the offense.
Yes.....another Ace would make us ALOT better....but,are we gonna give 2-3 top prospects to improve what is already,by far,the best part of our team?
I'd rather trade for an Adrian Beltre......or a Matt Kemp.....or sign Nelson Cruz......or,or.
Heck....let's trade for Troy Tulowitzki!(wink)





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/08/2014 12:42 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


Moneyball is doing what other teams are not to try to gain advantage. Right now that means trading prospects, therefore prospects are of higher value now even when they may never develop into all stars.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 12:44 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



MrPadre19 wrote: I would think he already has "some" familiarity with our Farm system.
If "I" can know a little about every Farm system...and alot about the Padres....and if I can know "alot" about every teams major league roster......all while holding down a 50 hour a week job "outside" of baseball AND raise three boys,you would think a ML Asst GM would know quite a bit about our ML team and at least have a working knowledge of our Farm.
I realize he needs to know "alot" more than that......but it's not like he doesn't know who/what Amarista is and he should at least know something about our top 20 prospects.
So,it shouldn't take him all that long to get up to speed IMO.

I wonder if these Asst GM's play fantasy baseball?
Seriously....In the extremely Deep league I'm in it pays to know entire 25 man rosters AND top 20 prospects and their ETA's.
Just curious.

On Hamels.....While it would be great,and as was said,far fetched that we would go after him,I would think A.J.'s first priority is going to be to improve the offense.
Yes.....another Ace would make us ALOT better....but,are we gonna give 2-3 top prospects to improve what is already,by far,the best part of our team?
I'd rather trade for an Adrian Beltre......or a Matt Kemp.....or sign Nelson Cruz......or,or.
Heck....let's trade for Troy Tulowitzki!(wink)
Tulowiotzki is going to have the durability of Quentin in a few years.  Given the money and talent needed to acquire him, I wouldn't even sniff that as a GM.
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Posted: 08/08/2014 2:12 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



Moldenke wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: I would think he already has "some" familiarity with our Farm system.
If "I" can know a little about every Farm system...and alot about the Padres....and if I can know "alot" about every teams major league roster......all while holding down a 50 hour a week job "outside" of baseball AND raise three boys,you would think a ML Asst GM would know quite a bit about our ML team and at least have a working knowledge of our Farm.
I realize he needs to know "alot" more than that......but it's not like he doesn't know who/what Amarista is and he should at least know something about our top 20 prospects.
So,it shouldn't take him all that long to get up to speed IMO.

I wonder if these Asst GM's play fantasy baseball?
Seriously....In the extremely Deep league I'm in it pays to know entire 25 man rosters AND top 20 prospects and their ETA's.
Just curious.

On Hamels.....While it would be great,and as was said,far fetched that we would go after him,I would think A.J.'s first priority is going to be to improve the offense.
Yes.....another Ace would make us ALOT better....but,are we gonna give 2-3 top prospects to improve what is already,by far,the best part of our team?
I'd rather trade for an Adrian Beltre......or a Matt Kemp.....or sign Nelson Cruz......or,or.
Heck....let's trade for Troy Tulowitzki!(wink)
Tulowiotzki is going to have the durability of Quentin in a few years.  Given the money and talent needed to acquire him, I wouldn't even sniff that as a GM.
Yeah...that's what the "wink" was about........I realize he's risky.
Plus in the Division.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/08/2014 2:35 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



JC2400 wrote: Moneyball is doing what other teams are not to try to gain advantage. Right now that means trading prospects, therefore prospects are of higher value now even when they may never develop into all stars.
+1 … good catch … that is what the "insiders" are now suggesting also. I repeat my earlier comment, the Texas roster is built on trades and FA … not impact players from their farm system (which has been very good based on people who rate farm systems). Those excellent prospects when somewhere …. likely trades.

Given that most of us on this website are prospect oriented … might be in for a shock if the new FO is more "flexible" in considering moving top prospects if … in their minds … yields a better product now and in the long run. Just guessing … Preller may go in either direction depending on the mix of players … Texas made a prospect haul in trading a veteran like Texiera (2007) while Preller was in Texas  so not thinking he is anti-prospect given the return was key in some of their championship runs. Think every case will stand on its own merits … not follow a structured bias.

Last edited 08/08/2014 2:36 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 08/08/2014 2:51 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 


While I personally LOVE me some prospects.....and hate the idea of trading them,especially hitters,I am also usually the one saying "trade for proven major league players".
To do that you will have to give up prospects.
We used to not be in the position to do this.
We didn't have enough prospects that other teams wanted....but things are much different now.
Considering(i wonder what the actual numbers are) a high percentage of even "top" prospects never become more than a below average major leaguer,why not take advantage of their higher value while they are still top prospects?
If you send 3 of your top 10 guys away in a trade there's apretty good chance that "none" of them will be as good as the major leaguer you get in return.There's a decent chance that all three combined won't be.
But,you take that risk that you are giving up a Mike Trout as well.
I just think right now the cupboard is packed.....we could afford to "make some room" and trade a few for a proven player or two.
I'm excited to see if this is indeed what Preller does.
Also....considering how hard it is for us to lure hitters here via free agency,it only makes sense that we should take advantage of the Farm we've built to get us some bats.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/08/2014 3:18 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



MrPadre19 wrote:
I just think right now the cupboard is packed.....we could afford to "make some room" and trade a few for a proven player or two.
I'm excited to see if this is indeed what Preller does.
Also....considering how hard it is for us to lure hitters here via free agency,it only makes sense that we should take advantage of the Farm we've built to get us some bats.

Just for fun...
If you were Preller, which prospects do you think you'd package together as an initial offer to another team, in order to get a legit ML bat in return?
_____________________________________
Prospect I'm Championing: Cory Spangenberg
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Posted: 08/08/2014 3:49 PM

Re: Cole Hamels 



USMC53 wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote:
I just think right now the cupboard is packed.....we could afford to "make some room" and trade a few for a proven player or two.
I'm excited to see if this is indeed what Preller does.
Also....considering how hard it is for us to lure hitters here via free agency,it only makes sense that we should take advantage of the Farm we've built to get us some bats.

Just for fun...
If you were Preller, which prospects do you think you'd package together as an initial offer to another team, in order to get a legit ML bat in return?
Depends on the bat. No prospect is untouchable for me if it's a legitimate bat. Just a matter of value.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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