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Its time top see the Yutes

Posted: 07/26/2014 8:41 AM

Its time top see the Yutes 


Liriano and Spangenberg are both 23. Liriano has appox 3000 minor league ab's and Spangy has close to 1500. Lets go-dump the MLB retreds and add the yutes and see what they can do. Who knows, they may jump start the squad into a WC berth...
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Posted: 07/26/2014 9:04 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


I agree to some extent.
I expect Liriano to struggle at first.....so maybe a good idea to get him 100+ ML QB's
this season?
I worry a bit about Spangy but mainly because of Petersons struggles.
He seemed like a sure bet to at least hold his own yet hasn't hit at all.
I'm thinking(hoping) his case is just that maybe he doesn't hit without
steady at bats?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 07/26/2014 9:07 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


Do not bring up any legit hitting prospect without at least a half a season in AAA … the history of hitters being successful with a direct jump from AA (even the ones that turn out well) is minuscule. Not so sure even about the call-up from AAA unless the development staff says they are ready …. Peterson was doing well in AAA and fizzled in the ML and Rizzo was killing AAA pitching, fans clamored for bring him up, Rizzo failed, fans said he was a bust (the AGon trade was a joke) … he gets dealt and becomes an all-star … even Hoyer said he made a mistake and brought him up too soon. Don't care about their age or MiL ABs or their MiL stats … development staff will say when they are ready and that is why they pay scouts and MiL development staffs. 

See them on August 1 …. 2015 … no sooner.

Last edited 07/26/2014 9:10 AM by FENN68

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Posted: 07/26/2014 9:26 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



FENN68 wrote: Do not bring up any legit hitting prospect without at least a half a season in AAA … the history of hitters being successful with a direct jump from AA (even the ones that turn out well) is minuscule. Not so sure even about the call-up from AAA unless the development staff says they are ready …. Peterson was doing well in AAA and fizzled in the ML and Rizzo was killing AAA pitching, fans clamored for bring him up, Rizzo failed, fans said he was a bust (the AGon trade was a joke) … he gets dealt and becomes an all-star … even Hoyer said he made a mistake and brought him up too soon. Don't care about their age or MiL ABs or their MiL stats … development staff will say when they are ready and that is why they pay scouts and MiL development staffs. 

See them on August 1 …. 2015 … no sooner.





Smart.
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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 07/26/2014 9:55 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



FENN68 wrote: Do not bring up any legit hitting prospect without at least a half a season in AAA … the history of hitters being successful with a direct jump from AA (even the ones that turn out well) is minuscule. Not so sure even about the call-up from AAA unless the development staff says they are ready …. Peterson was doing well in AAA and fizzled in the ML and Rizzo was killing AAA pitching, fans clamored for bring him up, Rizzo failed, fans said he was a bust (the AGon trade was a joke) … he gets dealt and becomes an all-star … even Hoyer said he made a mistake and brought him up too soon. Don't care about their age or MiL ABs or their MiL stats … development staff will say when they are ready and that is why they pay scouts and MiL development staffs. 

See them on August 1 …. 2015 … no sooner.
Agree in principle, but I think Liriano in his 3rd year on 40-man does get a Sept callup this year; a few starts to see him in MLB in meaningless games.   He will definitely need & get more time in AAA next year.   Spangy will definitely get added to 40-man in offseason, but not during this season with crowded roster.  I personally like him better & think he's closer to MLB than Lindsey, but agree needs at least 1/2 season in AAA.

But these guys will be Padres in 2015.
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Posted: 07/26/2014 10:26 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: Do not bring up any legit hitting prospect without at least a half a season in AAA … the history of hitters being successful with a direct jump from AA (even the ones that turn out well) is minuscule. Not so sure even about the call-up from AAA unless the development staff says they are ready …. Peterson was doing well in AAA and fizzled in the ML and Rizzo was killing AAA pitching, fans clamored for bring him up, Rizzo failed, fans said he was a bust (the AGon trade was a joke) … he gets dealt and becomes an all-star … even Hoyer said he made a mistake and brought him up too soon. Don't care about their age or MiL ABs or their MiL stats … development staff will say when they are ready and that is why they pay scouts and MiL development staffs. 

See them on August 1 …. 2015 … no sooner.
Agree in principle, but I think Liriano in his 3rd year on 40-man does get a Sept callup this year; a few starts to see him in MLB in meaningless games.   He will definitely need & get more time in AAA next year.   Spangy will definitely get added to 40-man in offseason, but not during this season with crowded roster.  I personally like him better & think he's closer to MLB than Lindsey, but agree needs at least 1/2 season in AAA.

But these guys will be Padres in 2015.
I could see the Liriano Sept call-up with one caveat …. adding ML service time. This goes for any prospect (think Wisler, Liriano, Lindsey) … if they don't start accumulating ML service time until about June 1 2015, the Padres keep control for 6 years starting in 2016 … so basically almost 7 years.  They can achieve the same thing though by leaving the prospect down for a longer time in 2015 or just sending him down anytime during the year to stop gaining ML service time … both come with some issues with the fans, union, and player IF the player is performing. So, for me, not really worth the future issues when dealing with a top prospect for just a "look see" for curiosity.

The better the prospect the less I want that prospect start the service clock just for curiosity … to me bad roster management and future thinking.
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Posted: 07/26/2014 10:36 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


With our most promising minor leaguers (albeit from short hot streaks) not likely to play in San Diego until next June (at the earliest) how does that portend for the big league team next year? Are we going to keep struggling or does someone see reason for hope starting next April?

Last edited 07/26/2014 10:37 AM by ChargersWinII

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Posted: 07/26/2014 2:19 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 





---------------------------------------------
--- FENN68 wrote:

Do not bring up any legit hitting prospect without at least a half a season in AAA … the history of hitters being successful with a direct jump from AA (even the ones that turn out well) is minuscule. Not so sure even about the call-up from AAA unless the development staff says they are ready …. Peterson was doing well in AAA and fizzled in the ML and Rizzo was killing AAA pitching, fans clamored for bring him up, Rizzo failed, fans said he was a bust (the AGon trade was a joke) … he gets dealt and becomes an all-star … even Hoyer said he made a mistake and brought him up too soon. Don't care about their age or MiL ABs or their MiL stats … development staff will say when they are ready and that is why they pay scouts and MiL development staffs. 

See them on August 1 …. 2015 … no sooner.

---------------------------------------------

It depends on the player.
Some of the best players never see AAA.
Miguel Cabrera......Giancarlo Stanton......and many more,especially the last 5-10 years.
Not saying Liriano is on par with those guys but he seems the kind of hitter who starts slow then rakes.
Why not get the "start slow" part behind him sooner rather than later?
As long as it makes sense to our brain trust that is.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 07/26/2014 2:40 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


Definitely don't think Liriano is ready.  He's always been raw, and missing a year of playing time was probably the worst thing for him.
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Posted: 07/26/2014 3:48 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 





---------------------------------------------
--- Moldenke wrote:

Definitely don't think Liriano is ready.  He's always been raw, and missing a year of playing time was probably the worst thing for him.

---------------------------------------------

Doesn't appear to be bothering him much?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 07/26/2014 4:11 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



MrPadre19 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- Moldenke wrote:

Definitely don't think Liriano is ready.  He's always been raw, and missing a year of playing time was probably the worst thing for him.

---------------------------------------------

Doesn't appear to be bothering him much?
His line in San Antonio is fine...but he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. And remember: San Antonio is a much better comp for Petco than El Paso.  What do you think a .260 batting average and 25% K rate in AA translates to in the MLB?

I've always been a fan of Liriano.  But he has historically struggled big time any time he's been promoted.  Having him jump two levels in one year just seems extreme.

Last edited 07/26/2014 4:15 PM by Moldenke

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Posted: 07/26/2014 4:36 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



Moldenke wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- Moldenke wrote:

Definitely don't think Liriano is ready.  He's always been raw, and missing a year of playing time was probably the worst thing for him.

---------------------------------------------

Doesn't appear to be bothering him much?
His line in San Antonio is fine...but he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. And remember: San Antonio is a much better comp for Petco than El Paso.  What do you think a .260 batting average and 25% K rate in AA translates to in the MLB?

I've always been a fan of Liriano.  But he has historically struggled big time any time he's been promoted.  Having him jump two levels in one year just seems extreme.
I like Liriano's potential a lot … but I am not confusing him with Cabrera or Stanton based on what he has done this year. He looks like he really needs those AAA AB. Besides, don't know the big advantage of a call-up now … as opposed to a Sept call up if they want to expose him to the ML. That would only delay his 2015 potential call-up by one more month … if they wanted to keep him for the extra year of control … call him up now to play on a non-contender and delay his 2015 until mid-season seems questionable. Prefer to have that 7th control year in 2021 when the Padres are in first place rather than losing that year and playing him in 2014 and a shortened 2015 on a bottom rung team.
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Posted: 07/26/2014 4:52 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



FENN68 wrote:
Moldenke wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- Moldenke wrote:

Definitely don't think Liriano is ready.  He's always been raw, and missing a year of playing time was probably the worst thing for him.

---------------------------------------------

Doesn't appear to be bothering him much?
His line in San Antonio is fine...but he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball. And remember: San Antonio is a much better comp for Petco than El Paso.  What do you think a .260 batting average and 25% K rate in AA translates to in the MLB?

I've always been a fan of Liriano.  But he has historically struggled big time any time he's been promoted.  Having him jump two levels in one year just seems extreme.
I like Liriano's potential a lot … but I am not confusing him with Cabrera or Stanton based on what he has done this year. He looks like he really needs those AAA AB. Besides, don't know the big advantage of a call-up now … as opposed to a Sept call up if they want to expose him to the ML. That would only delay his 2015 potential call-up by one more month … if they wanted to keep him for the extra year of control … call him up now to play on a non-contender and delay his 2015 until mid-season seems questionable. Prefer to have that 7th control year in 2021 when the Padres are in first place rather than losing that year and playing him in 2014 and a shortened 2015 on a bottom rung team.
Yeah--it's been said before but I think if Liriano absolutely maxes out on his projection he looks like Raul Mondesi.  I think Mondesi's career line--.273/.331/.485--is probably as good as we could ever hope for him to be.
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Posted: 07/26/2014 5:04 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


I'd be stoked if he turned into a Raul Mondesi. That's about as apt a projection as I can think of, too...
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Posted: 07/26/2014 11:29 PM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


You normally do not see K rate change too dramatically from level to level with power hitters.  A power hitter will strike out a lot whether he is in Low A or the majors.  A 25% K rate wont magiacally become 50% in the majors.

Just as a reeducation

1 year of service time = 172 DAYS on the active roster (not games but days) 

The calendar starts with the first game and ends with the last.  Usually this is around 185-190 days.  A player cannot  get more than 1 yr of service time in a year.  

Do to gain that extra year a player just has to be called up with 171 days to go in the season.  If five years later they end up at 5.999 they still have one more year under contract.  This is usually around April 20th-25th (depending on when the season starts).

If the Padres call up Liriano it will be in the next week or two.  If not you wont see him until late April at the earliest.  (So the answer is Late April).  We have a crowded outfield already.  Doubt anything changes this year (even if DIno is traded)
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Posted: 07/27/2014 12:59 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



BenDavey wrote: You normally do not see K rate change too dramatically from level to level with power hitters.  A power hitter will strike out a lot whether he is in Low A or the majors.  A 25% K rate wont magiacally become 50% in the majors.

I'm not sure what you would consider "too dramatically", but I don't think it's weird to expect that Liriano would K probably 35% of the time if he were in the majors right now.  8-10% seems to be the going rate of increase for a power hitter going from the minors to the majors.  Liriano's would probably be even higher considering he'd basically be going straight from AA.

I'm not trying to speak to his future outlook as a whole--just what he would do if he were in the majors right this second.  Again: his numbers in SA were hardly gaudy.
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Posted: 07/27/2014 5:50 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


I'm not exactly clamor ing for his call up.....but I also think the sooner he has an opportunity to "acclimate" to the level the better for his career.
I am not one who just takes a guys numbers in AA and automatically assumes they will be a certain percentage worse in the majors.
Some guys actually improve.As a a matter of fact "many" guys do due to the fact the pitchers are more in control and around the plate.
Also,improved scouting reports on M.L. pitchers,etc....
Guys also just "step it up".
Either way......we will see him when we see him.Im just anxious to see "someone" infuse some life into the offense from our system.Medica,Peterson,Gyorko, have all been a let down to this point.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 07/27/2014 6:49 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



ChargersWinII wrote: With our most promising minor leaguers (albeit from short hot streaks) not likely to play in San Diego until next June (at the earliest) how does that portend for the big league team next year? Are we going to keep struggling or does someone see reason for hope starting next April?
That's a maddening question... depending what we do these next 5 days (let's assume nothing but maybe trade Denorfia).   We have good SP, good bullpen, and at least 1 good prospect at every position within a year of Pads... but a lot of them need some/more time in AAA:  Liriano, Renfroe, Spangenberg, Hedges...

If we can't attract a FA hitter, and are "young & building" and don't want to trade for a hitter, how exactly do we get them....  I would actually be more OK with the team being bad all around & playing young guys, but frustrating to waste good pitching.

My bottom line is: it can't get any worse than first 3 months of this year offensively, but we need a "name" player somewhere.  In order, my preference would be:  1B, SS, CF.   Gotta get back to the running game too; that totally disappeared this year.
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Posted: 07/27/2014 7:09 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 



brianmcon wrote:
ChargersWinII wrote: With our most promising minor leaguers (albeit from short hot streaks) not likely to play in San Diego until next June (at the earliest) how does that portend for the big league team next year? Are we going to keep struggling or does someone see reason for hope starting next April?
That's a maddening question... depending what we do these next 5 days (let's assume nothing but maybe trade Denorfia).   We have good SP, good bullpen, and at least 1 good prospect at every position within a year of Pads... but a lot of them need some/more time in AAA:  Liriano, Renfroe, Spangenberg, Hedges...

If we can't attract a FA hitter, and are "young & building" and don't want to trade for a hitter, how exactly do we get them....  I would actually be more OK with the team being bad all around & playing young guys, but frustrating to waste good pitching.

My bottom line is: it can't get any worse than first 3 months of this year offensively, but we need a "name" player somewhere.  In order, my preference would be:  1B, SS, CF.   Gotta get back to the running game too; that totally disappeared this year.


I see 2015 as a throw away ( or "waiting for the youngins to develop") season UNLESS we somehow make key acquisitions for Major league ready bats in the off season. But I don't see very much we can trade with any more. Who would we trade to acquire good major league bats? If that answer is nothing then free agency needs to be explored. Good luck with that.

1B - Ugly. We don't have an answer for that position IMO.

SS - See 1B

CF - Bad News Bears

I'm not sure about the 3B, C, LF, 2B and RF positions either. Seriously. Please tell me we have good major league position players for any position on the diamond. I see questions every where. At least for the first half of 2015. Maybe later in the year (2015) we bring up some kids that are hopefully doing well in higher levels and continue their fine play in San Diego. I think that's our best case scenario.

So to sum up....we suck like a leech for the first three or four months out of the season (this should wreck the whole year for us if anyone else has a decent start in our division) and then bring up some kids for diversion sake. MAYBE those kids perform well right away. Odds are against that of course. So we continue to keep sucking like a leech throughout the whole 2015 season. And just think how bad it could get if our pitching doesn't match this years numbers. Another top ten draft slot in 2016.

Last edited 07/27/2014 7:12 AM by ChargersWinII

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Posted: 07/27/2014 7:11 AM

Re: Its time top see the Yutes 


Have we completely given up on Gyorko?
I still haven't on Alonso,although I know most have....but Gyorko?
Really?
Many young hitters go through a sophomore slump.He'll be back!
Next years IF.....
1B-Alonso/Medica/Grandal
2B-Gyorko/Solarte
SS-Cabrera/Peterson
3B-Solarte/Nelson?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

Last edited 07/27/2014 7:11 AM by MrPadre19

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