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Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1268 posts this site

Posted: 07/03/2014 11:37 AM

Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


On Opening Day, I thought Pads system had 4 guys that were “locks” to be put on 40-man roster/protected from Rule 5 during or end of season:  J. Peterson, Quack, Spangenberg, & Alex Dickerson (remember Wisler, Hedges, J. Ross do NOT have to be protected). With Peterson & Quack selected & injuries to Spangy & Dickerson, after 3 months Pads are in interesting position where at the moment IMO they have no true “locks” but a LOT of possibles.

    On 7/1 I had 12 guys rated “should” protect, including Brooks Conrad @ #11.  In reality, even with a purge of current roster, these guys can’t/won’t all be protected:   1) Tayron Guerrero RP:  He can throw 100+ MPH and has finally found control; simple as that.  Old for Lake Elsinore.  Another good month & he’s a lock.  2)  James Needy  SP:  Never going to be dominant front of rotation guy, but his stuff should play really well at PETCO.  Looks like true innings-eater.  Also a good month away from “lock”.  3)  Jon Galvez 2B/3B:   Hard to imagine Pads NOT protecting him as a 2B/3B option with likely loss of Headley.  Think he’d be a minors FA & someone will definitely sign him if we don’t.  4)  Leonel Campos  RP/SP:  After disastrous first month in AAA, showing promise as a starter.  Another big arm type teams look for in Rule 5.  5) Cory Spangenberg  2B/CF?:  If the CF experiment leads to Amarista off roster, Cory will be a great draft pick, IMO.  If he plays even decently, very likely to protect him.  6)  Alex Dickerson OF/1B:  His chances really hurt by injury which led to trade for & promotion of Goebbert.  Would really help him if he can at least DH in Aug, maybe play in AFL?  Pads & other teams need LH OF bats, though.  7)  Johnny Barbato RP:  Had him as a “lock” until injury.  Even if fairly serious, also a likely protect.  8)  Diego Goris  INF:  This is probably the dividing line below which guys including Goris are much less likely to be protected.  “Everyone” can hit in Cal League; Pads need to see if he can sustain it in AA.  9)  Adys Portillo RP:  Oh, Adys.  Last month I had him as a lock.  Inconsistency is reminiscent of Keyvius Sampson unfortunately, but seems to be back on track last 5-6 games & still so young!  10)  Adam Moore C:  I think it’s premature to add Austin Hedges to a tight 40-man roster for a Sept callup.  I’d rather see Moore trade places with Grandal for August (after roster thins out), Grandal back up in Sept, then go into offseason with 3 catchers protected on 40-man plus Hedges slated for AAA.  11)  Brooks Conrad 2B/3B:  Happy to see him get a shot on Pads.  Has earned it.  Need as many 2B/3B candidates as possible for 2015.  12)  Luis De La Cruz  RP:   Re-signed as minors FA last year & living up to potential in San Antonio, but age & maybe too many others to protect work against him.  Likely minors Free agent.

 

    On 7/1 I had fully 23 guys rated “Fringe” meaning some argument could be made for them making it onto a MLB roster, but odds against it:    Casey McElroy – Lefty SS/util always useful, Colin Rea & Bryan Rodriguez SP both doing “good” but not “great” in LE, Dennis O’Grady RP:  I don’t see it, but Pads have him in AAA after ST this year, Rico Noel’s defense is MLB worthy, but hitting not, C Rocky Gale doing a nice job in AAA; could get Sept callup if Moore joins another team before then,  RP Matt Branham flashes in spot start duty, RP Jerry Sullivan high on this list, but tough competition,  Jason Hagerty & Cody Decker both hitting with regular playing time; mirror roles of 1B/C/PH, OF Alberth Martinez #39 for a reason; talented, but behind others, 3B Gabe Quintana heating up, but Pads hoped for more in Lake Elsinore all yr, RP Frank Garces probably #1 on this list; Lefty Closer in San Antonio who has started in past, SS/util Benji Gonzalez was signed as system depth but playing well,  easy to envision OF Corey Adamson as young LH Denorfia, but at this point he’s probably behind OF/1B Luis Domoromo who is red hot recently.  Almost all veteran AAA guys in this category too:  SP/RP/PH!  Jason Lane, RP Hector Ambriz, SS/util Tyler Greene, OF Jeff Francoeur, OF/util Alex Castellanos, OF/1B Travis Buck, and finally SP/RP Josh Geer.

     Notably below “Fringe”:  #34 SP Justin Hancock due to injury, but rehabbing now.  #38 C Rodney Daal due to injury, drug use suspension & too far away.   Donovan Tate would have to return in July & hit .400-.500 somewhere to return to prospect status.

 

   Of course many vets will move on as minors FA, and most guys won’t get picked in Rule 5, but the Pads do have some interesting decisions to make moving forward.  Hopefully many good performances make the decisions even tougher!

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Posted: 07/03/2014 12:51 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


A lot of changes to the roster will occur prior to setting the 40 man for the Rule 5 …. 5 months is an eternity.

As it stand … 45 (counting the five 60 day DL players)

- 4 FA (Johnson, Denorfia, Headley, Stauffer)
- 4 "easy" DFA / non-tender players (Jackson, LaFromboise, Conrad, Falu)
- 4 "more difficult" DFA / non-tender players (Boyer, Sampson, Patton, Oramas) … part of the call may be players MiL option status, if they are out for 2015 and you don't think they will make the 25 man, waive them now and protect another player

That would open 7 roster slots under the assumption that the net roster players move via trade come out even. Seven should cover everyone that really is at risk of being claimed (and kept) via Rule 5 … probably don't need that much.

Last edited 07/03/2014 12:57 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 07/03/2014 1:07 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



brianmcon wrote: On Opening Day, I thought Pads system had 4 guys that were “locks” to be put on 40-man roster/protected from Rule 5 during or end of season:  J. Peterson, Quack, Spangenberg, & Alex Dickerson (remember Wisler, Hedges, J. Ross do NOT have to be protected). With Peterson & Quack selected & injuries to Spangy & Dickerson, after 3 months Pads are in interesting position where at the moment IMO they have no true “locks” but a LOT of possibles.

    On 7/1 I had 12 guys rated “should” protect, including Brooks Conrad @ #11.  In reality, even with a purge of current roster, these guys can’t/won’t all be protected:   1) Tayron Guerrero RP:  He can throw 100+ MPH and has finally found control; simple as that.  Old for Lake Elsinore.  Another good month & he’s a lock.  2)  James Needy  SP:  Never going to be dominant front of rotation guy, but his stuff should play really well at PETCO.  Looks like true innings-eater.  Also a good month away from “lock”.  3)  Jon Galvez 2B/3B:   Hard to imagine Pads NOT protecting him as a 2B/3B option with likely loss of Headley.  Think he’d be a minors FA & someone will definitely sign him if we don’t.  4)  Leonel Campos  RP/SP:  After disastrous first month in AAA, showing promise as a starter.  Another big arm type teams look for in Rule 5.  5) Cory Spangenberg  2B/CF?:  If the CF experiment leads to Amarista off roster, Cory will be a great draft pick, IMO.  If he plays even decently, very likely to protect him.  6)  Alex Dickerson OF/1B:  His chances really hurt by injury which led to trade for & promotion of Goebbert.  Would really help him if he can at least DH in Aug, maybe play in AFL?  Pads & other teams need LH OF bats, though.  7)  Johnny Barbato RP:  Had him as a “lock” until injury.  Even if fairly serious, also a likely protect.  8)  Diego Goris  INF:  This is probably the dividing line below which guys including Goris are much less likely to be protected.  “Everyone” can hit in Cal League; Pads need to see if he can sustain it in AA.  9)  Adys Portillo RP:  Oh, Adys.  Last month I had him as a lock.  Inconsistency is reminiscent of Keyvius Sampson unfortunately, but seems to be back on track last 5-6 games & still so young!  10)  Adam Moore C:  I think it’s premature to add Austin Hedges to a tight 40-man roster for a Sept callup.  I’d rather see Moore trade places with Grandal for August (after roster thins out), Grandal back up in Sept, then go into offseason with 3 catchers protected on 40-man plus Hedges slated for AAA.  11)  Brooks Conrad 2B/3B:  Happy to see him get a shot on Pads.  Has earned it.  Need as many 2B/3B candidates as possible for 2015.  12)  Luis De La Cruz  RP:   Re-signed as minors FA last year & living up to potential in San Antonio, but age & maybe too many others to protect work against him.  Likely minors Free agent.

 

    On 7/1 I had fully 23 guys rated “Fringe” meaning some argument could be made for them making it onto a MLB roster, but odds against it:    Casey McElroy – Lefty SS/util always useful, Colin Rea & Bryan Rodriguez SP both doing “good” but not “great” in LE, Dennis O’Grady RP:  I don’t see it, but Pads have him in AAA after ST this year, Rico Noel’s defense is MLB worthy, but hitting not, C Rocky Gale doing a nice job in AAA; could get Sept callup if Moore joins another team before then,  RP Matt Branham flashes in spot start duty, RP Jerry Sullivan high on this list, but tough competition,  Jason Hagerty & Cody Decker both hitting with regular playing time; mirror roles of 1B/C/PH, OF Alberth Martinez #39 for a reason; talented, but behind others, 3B Gabe Quintana heating up, but Pads hoped for more in Lake Elsinore all yr, RP Frank Garces probably #1 on this list; Lefty Closer in San Antonio who has started in past, SS/util Benji Gonzalez was signed as system depth but playing well,  easy to envision OF Corey Adamson as young LH Denorfia, but at this point he’s probably behind OF/1B Luis Domoromo who is red hot recently.  Almost all veteran AAA guys in this category too:  SP/RP/PH!  Jason Lane, RP Hector Ambriz, SS/util Tyler Greene, OF Jeff Francoeur, OF/util Alex Castellanos, OF/1B Travis Buck, and finally SP/RP Josh Geer.

     Notably below “Fringe”:  #34 SP Justin Hancock due to injury, but rehabbing now.  #38 C Rodney Daal due to injury, drug use suspension & too far away.   Donovan Tate would have to return in July & hit .400-.500 somewhere to return to prospect status.

 

   Of course many vets will move on as minors FA, and most guys won’t get picked in Rule 5, but the Pads do have some interesting decisions to make moving forward.  Hopefully many good performances make the decisions even tougher!

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1268 posts this site

Posted: 07/13/2014 3:25 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

Last edited 07/13/2014 3:30 PM by brianmcon

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Posted: 07/13/2014 4:40 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 





---------------------------------------------
--- brianmcon wrote:

per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

---------------------------------------------

Signed,Joakim Soria and Everth Cabrera.....:)





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1268 posts this site

Posted: 07/14/2014 7:26 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



MrPadre19 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- brianmcon wrote:

per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

---------------------------------------------

Signed,Joakim Soria and Everth Cabrera.....:)
You would say that!  But guys with that long term impact are SO few & far between.
To me it just speaks volumes that Pads have this big list of "should" & "fringe" guys, but not a single screaming obvious "lock" player to be protected @ July 1st.....

Hopefully that will change in next 2 months... list volatile due to injuries, trades, etc.
Pads 40-man is obviously going to change a LOT by next opening day...
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