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Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1349 posts this site

Posted: 07/03/2014 11:37 AM

Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


On Opening Day, I thought Pads system had 4 guys that were “locks” to be put on 40-man roster/protected from Rule 5 during or end of season:  J. Peterson, Quack, Spangenberg, & Alex Dickerson (remember Wisler, Hedges, J. Ross do NOT have to be protected). With Peterson & Quack selected & injuries to Spangy & Dickerson, after 3 months Pads are in interesting position where at the moment IMO they have no true “locks” but a LOT of possibles.

    On 7/1 I had 12 guys rated “should” protect, including Brooks Conrad @ #11.  In reality, even with a purge of current roster, these guys can’t/won’t all be protected:   1) Tayron Guerrero RP:  He can throw 100+ MPH and has finally found control; simple as that.  Old for Lake Elsinore.  Another good month & he’s a lock.  2)  James Needy  SP:  Never going to be dominant front of rotation guy, but his stuff should play really well at PETCO.  Looks like true innings-eater.  Also a good month away from “lock”.  3)  Jon Galvez 2B/3B:   Hard to imagine Pads NOT protecting him as a 2B/3B option with likely loss of Headley.  Think he’d be a minors FA & someone will definitely sign him if we don’t.  4)  Leonel Campos  RP/SP:  After disastrous first month in AAA, showing promise as a starter.  Another big arm type teams look for in Rule 5.  5) Cory Spangenberg  2B/CF?:  If the CF experiment leads to Amarista off roster, Cory will be a great draft pick, IMO.  If he plays even decently, very likely to protect him.  6)  Alex Dickerson OF/1B:  His chances really hurt by injury which led to trade for & promotion of Goebbert.  Would really help him if he can at least DH in Aug, maybe play in AFL?  Pads & other teams need LH OF bats, though.  7)  Johnny Barbato RP:  Had him as a “lock” until injury.  Even if fairly serious, also a likely protect.  8)  Diego Goris  INF:  This is probably the dividing line below which guys including Goris are much less likely to be protected.  “Everyone” can hit in Cal League; Pads need to see if he can sustain it in AA.  9)  Adys Portillo RP:  Oh, Adys.  Last month I had him as a lock.  Inconsistency is reminiscent of Keyvius Sampson unfortunately, but seems to be back on track last 5-6 games & still so young!  10)  Adam Moore C:  I think it’s premature to add Austin Hedges to a tight 40-man roster for a Sept callup.  I’d rather see Moore trade places with Grandal for August (after roster thins out), Grandal back up in Sept, then go into offseason with 3 catchers protected on 40-man plus Hedges slated for AAA.  11)  Brooks Conrad 2B/3B:  Happy to see him get a shot on Pads.  Has earned it.  Need as many 2B/3B candidates as possible for 2015.  12)  Luis De La Cruz  RP:   Re-signed as minors FA last year & living up to potential in San Antonio, but age & maybe too many others to protect work against him.  Likely minors Free agent.

 

    On 7/1 I had fully 23 guys rated “Fringe” meaning some argument could be made for them making it onto a MLB roster, but odds against it:    Casey McElroy – Lefty SS/util always useful, Colin Rea & Bryan Rodriguez SP both doing “good” but not “great” in LE, Dennis O’Grady RP:  I don’t see it, but Pads have him in AAA after ST this year, Rico Noel’s defense is MLB worthy, but hitting not, C Rocky Gale doing a nice job in AAA; could get Sept callup if Moore joins another team before then,  RP Matt Branham flashes in spot start duty, RP Jerry Sullivan high on this list, but tough competition,  Jason Hagerty & Cody Decker both hitting with regular playing time; mirror roles of 1B/C/PH, OF Alberth Martinez #39 for a reason; talented, but behind others, 3B Gabe Quintana heating up, but Pads hoped for more in Lake Elsinore all yr, RP Frank Garces probably #1 on this list; Lefty Closer in San Antonio who has started in past, SS/util Benji Gonzalez was signed as system depth but playing well,  easy to envision OF Corey Adamson as young LH Denorfia, but at this point he’s probably behind OF/1B Luis Domoromo who is red hot recently.  Almost all veteran AAA guys in this category too:  SP/RP/PH!  Jason Lane, RP Hector Ambriz, SS/util Tyler Greene, OF Jeff Francoeur, OF/util Alex Castellanos, OF/1B Travis Buck, and finally SP/RP Josh Geer.

     Notably below “Fringe”:  #34 SP Justin Hancock due to injury, but rehabbing now.  #38 C Rodney Daal due to injury, drug use suspension & too far away.   Donovan Tate would have to return in July & hit .400-.500 somewhere to return to prospect status.

 

   Of course many vets will move on as minors FA, and most guys won’t get picked in Rule 5, but the Pads do have some interesting decisions to make moving forward.  Hopefully many good performances make the decisions even tougher!

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Posted: 07/03/2014 12:51 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


A lot of changes to the roster will occur prior to setting the 40 man for the Rule 5 …. 5 months is an eternity.

As it stand … 45 (counting the five 60 day DL players)

- 4 FA (Johnson, Denorfia, Headley, Stauffer)
- 4 "easy" DFA / non-tender players (Jackson, LaFromboise, Conrad, Falu)
- 4 "more difficult" DFA / non-tender players (Boyer, Sampson, Patton, Oramas) … part of the call may be players MiL option status, if they are out for 2015 and you don't think they will make the 25 man, waive them now and protect another player

That would open 7 roster slots under the assumption that the net roster players move via trade come out even. Seven should cover everyone that really is at risk of being claimed (and kept) via Rule 5 … probably don't need that much.

Last edited 07/03/2014 12:57 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 07/03/2014 1:07 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



brianmcon wrote: On Opening Day, I thought Pads system had 4 guys that were “locks” to be put on 40-man roster/protected from Rule 5 during or end of season:  J. Peterson, Quack, Spangenberg, & Alex Dickerson (remember Wisler, Hedges, J. Ross do NOT have to be protected). With Peterson & Quack selected & injuries to Spangy & Dickerson, after 3 months Pads are in interesting position where at the moment IMO they have no true “locks” but a LOT of possibles.

    On 7/1 I had 12 guys rated “should” protect, including Brooks Conrad @ #11.  In reality, even with a purge of current roster, these guys can’t/won’t all be protected:   1) Tayron Guerrero RP:  He can throw 100+ MPH and has finally found control; simple as that.  Old for Lake Elsinore.  Another good month & he’s a lock.  2)  James Needy  SP:  Never going to be dominant front of rotation guy, but his stuff should play really well at PETCO.  Looks like true innings-eater.  Also a good month away from “lock”.  3)  Jon Galvez 2B/3B:   Hard to imagine Pads NOT protecting him as a 2B/3B option with likely loss of Headley.  Think he’d be a minors FA & someone will definitely sign him if we don’t.  4)  Leonel Campos  RP/SP:  After disastrous first month in AAA, showing promise as a starter.  Another big arm type teams look for in Rule 5.  5) Cory Spangenberg  2B/CF?:  If the CF experiment leads to Amarista off roster, Cory will be a great draft pick, IMO.  If he plays even decently, very likely to protect him.  6)  Alex Dickerson OF/1B:  His chances really hurt by injury which led to trade for & promotion of Goebbert.  Would really help him if he can at least DH in Aug, maybe play in AFL?  Pads & other teams need LH OF bats, though.  7)  Johnny Barbato RP:  Had him as a “lock” until injury.  Even if fairly serious, also a likely protect.  8)  Diego Goris  INF:  This is probably the dividing line below which guys including Goris are much less likely to be protected.  “Everyone” can hit in Cal League; Pads need to see if he can sustain it in AA.  9)  Adys Portillo RP:  Oh, Adys.  Last month I had him as a lock.  Inconsistency is reminiscent of Keyvius Sampson unfortunately, but seems to be back on track last 5-6 games & still so young!  10)  Adam Moore C:  I think it’s premature to add Austin Hedges to a tight 40-man roster for a Sept callup.  I’d rather see Moore trade places with Grandal for August (after roster thins out), Grandal back up in Sept, then go into offseason with 3 catchers protected on 40-man plus Hedges slated for AAA.  11)  Brooks Conrad 2B/3B:  Happy to see him get a shot on Pads.  Has earned it.  Need as many 2B/3B candidates as possible for 2015.  12)  Luis De La Cruz  RP:   Re-signed as minors FA last year & living up to potential in San Antonio, but age & maybe too many others to protect work against him.  Likely minors Free agent.

 

    On 7/1 I had fully 23 guys rated “Fringe” meaning some argument could be made for them making it onto a MLB roster, but odds against it:    Casey McElroy – Lefty SS/util always useful, Colin Rea & Bryan Rodriguez SP both doing “good” but not “great” in LE, Dennis O’Grady RP:  I don’t see it, but Pads have him in AAA after ST this year, Rico Noel’s defense is MLB worthy, but hitting not, C Rocky Gale doing a nice job in AAA; could get Sept callup if Moore joins another team before then,  RP Matt Branham flashes in spot start duty, RP Jerry Sullivan high on this list, but tough competition,  Jason Hagerty & Cody Decker both hitting with regular playing time; mirror roles of 1B/C/PH, OF Alberth Martinez #39 for a reason; talented, but behind others, 3B Gabe Quintana heating up, but Pads hoped for more in Lake Elsinore all yr, RP Frank Garces probably #1 on this list; Lefty Closer in San Antonio who has started in past, SS/util Benji Gonzalez was signed as system depth but playing well,  easy to envision OF Corey Adamson as young LH Denorfia, but at this point he’s probably behind OF/1B Luis Domoromo who is red hot recently.  Almost all veteran AAA guys in this category too:  SP/RP/PH!  Jason Lane, RP Hector Ambriz, SS/util Tyler Greene, OF Jeff Francoeur, OF/util Alex Castellanos, OF/1B Travis Buck, and finally SP/RP Josh Geer.

     Notably below “Fringe”:  #34 SP Justin Hancock due to injury, but rehabbing now.  #38 C Rodney Daal due to injury, drug use suspension & too far away.   Donovan Tate would have to return in July & hit .400-.500 somewhere to return to prospect status.

 

   Of course many vets will move on as minors FA, and most guys won’t get picked in Rule 5, but the Pads do have some interesting decisions to make moving forward.  Hopefully many good performances make the decisions even tougher!

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 07/13/2014 3:25 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

Last edited 07/13/2014 3:30 PM by brianmcon

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Posted: 07/13/2014 4:40 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 





---------------------------------------------
--- brianmcon wrote:

per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

---------------------------------------------

Signed,Joakim Soria and Everth Cabrera.....:)





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 07/14/2014 7:26 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



MrPadre19 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- brianmcon wrote:

per Mr. P..

Of the bottom guys I hope we keep....
Quintana,Alberth Martinez,Domoromo and Adamson.
Also like Sullivan.

Even though Quintana & Domoromo are heating up, it's such a huge longshot they (or other position players from Elsinore) get picked AND kept all year on an MLB roster.   Closest guy is Sullivan; definitely in the mix for a 40-man spot.   Can't protect everyone; but (luckily) many guys are just too far away for MLB.  This list changes dramatically month-by-month.

---------------------------------------------

Signed,Joakim Soria and Everth Cabrera.....:)
You would say that!  But guys with that long term impact are SO few & far between.
To me it just speaks volumes that Pads have this big list of "should" & "fringe" guys, but not a single screaming obvious "lock" player to be protected @ July 1st.....

Hopefully that will change in next 2 months... list volatile due to injuries, trades, etc.
Pads 40-man is obviously going to change a LOT by next opening day...
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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 08/10/2014 10:37 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


Post-July revisions:  The July trades shake this list up massively. 

LOCKS:  1)  Cory Spangenberg:  His dominant play since return from injury put him @ top of my list ahead of # 2) Taylor Lindsey, also a lock but more on potential so far.

“SHOULD-PLUS”:  In the close to “Lock” category are:  3) James Needy staying consistent with flashes of brilliance to boot!  4)  Alex Dickerson also red-hot after return from surgery, albeit @ AA.  Pads seem extremely likely to add these 4 guys.

Should-‘Above the Line’:  The borderline calls that might fall in players’ favor:  5)  Adam Moore OR Rocky Gale.  Pads almost always add a 3rd catcher, so this likely move and ranking more on probability than player value.  Moore more experienced & proven, but Gale could be optioned up & down which would be useful.  6)  Jerry Sullivan – New to list up from “Fringe”… really impressive #’s particularly only 1 HR allowed all year including ½ season @ AAA.  7)  Stephen Kohlscheen- Similar to Sullivan; but fewer BB’s and K’s; non-dominant control type middle reliever appears MLB ready  8)  Tayron Guerrero-  Drops mostly due to recent injury; seems very likely to be “above the line” i.e. added to 40-man in offseason.

Should-‘Below the Lne’:  …but 9) Johnny Barbato has been out 2 months now, so have dropped him below the line.  Longer he’s out less likely losing him in rule 5 is… 10)  Leonel Campos’ K rate makes you drool, but he is so relatively old & still figuring out control… Pads may take their chances & leave him exposed.  Last 2 guys really hurt by July trades:  11) Jon Galvez & 12) Diego Goris:  Galvez plays multiple positions, but has higher rated prospects ahead of him everywhere.  Same for Goris, but even more so, and no OF experience.

Off list from June:  (9) Adys Portillo still high upside but not MLB ready with control .  (11) Brooks Conrad earned the chance but back to AAA plunging down depth chart in Majors & Minors with July trades  (12) Luis De La Cruz probably in same boat as Jeremy McBryde last year; older player now leapfrogged by July relievers & others in system.  Likely to leave as minors free agent.

Best of “Fringe” rated prospects:   C- Rocky Gale (if Adam Moore gets the call in Sept), RP(L) – Chris Rearick, 1B/OF – Cody Decker (#1 on list?), OF- Alberth Martinez, 3B – Gabe Quintana (#2 on list?), RP(L)- Frank Garces, RP- Portillo, 2B/SS – Benji Gonzalez

Last edited 08/10/2014 10:38 AM by brianmcon

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Posted: 08/10/2014 2:08 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


This ought to be a fairly easy roster manipulation to cover the prospects from Rule 5 … even after accommodating the 60 day DL returns to the 40 man. 

I only have 5: Lindsey; Spangenberg; Dickerson; Guerrero (teams love power armed RP as selections); and Needy. All the rest are not that significant as prospects … unlikely to be selected and kept. Losing one would not crimp the future of the Padres. Think Garces may be the wild card (over the oft injured Rearick) … if for no other reason than he is a LHRP with some decent production ...

As for Moore / Gale … think Moore is a minor league FA after the season but even if he was not a back-up catcher of his skills can be signed for AAA in the off-season (maybe Moore re-signs). Same goes for Gale … plus defense and no bat equals replaceable. Likely Gale does not get selected and is the "other catcher" in AAA next season after Hedges.
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  • brianmcon
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Posted: 08/10/2014 11:19 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



FENN68 wrote: This ought to be a fairly easy roster manipulation to cover the prospects from Rule 5 … even after accommodating the 60 day DL returns to the 40 man. 

I only have 5: Lindsey; Spangenberg; Dickerson; Guerrero (teams love power armed RP as selections); and Needy. All the rest are not that significant as prospects … unlikely to be selected and kept. Losing one would not crimp the future of the Padres. Think Garces may be the wild card (over the oft injured Rearick) … if for no other reason than he is a LHRP with some decent production ...

As for Moore / Gale … think Moore is a minor league FA after the season but even if he was not a back-up catcher of his skills can be signed for AAA in the off-season (maybe Moore re-signs). Same goes for Gale … plus defense and no bat equals replaceable. Likely Gale does not get selected and is the "other catcher" in AAA next season after Hedges.
Agree in general esp with top 5, but I think you've got to promote probably Moore just to protect yourself through ST next year.  Catchers this past year were a red hot commodity.  Byrnes frankly did really well pulling the trade for Moore even though he's a 3rd catcher journeyman guy.  He could end up having real value to either us or another team by end of ST... both are showing some "bat" in the 'meaningless' world of PCL... just as Rivera did last yr cool
  Come into ST with Grandal, Rivera, Moore, Hedges, Gale, & Dane Phillips... not bad!

Last edited 08/10/2014 11:21 PM by brianmcon

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Posted: 08/11/2014 6:40 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: This ought to be a fairly easy roster manipulation to cover the prospects from Rule 5 … even after accommodating the 60 day DL returns to the 40 man. 

I only have 5: Lindsey; Spangenberg; Dickerson; Guerrero (teams love power armed RP as selections); and Needy. All the rest are not that significant as prospects … unlikely to be selected and kept. Losing one would not crimp the future of the Padres. Think Garces may be the wild card (over the oft injured Rearick) … if for no other reason than he is a LHRP with some decent production ...

As for Moore / Gale … think Moore is a minor league FA after the season but even if he was not a back-up catcher of his skills can be signed for AAA in the off-season (maybe Moore re-signs). Same goes for Gale … plus defense and no bat equals replaceable. Likely Gale does not get selected and is the "other catcher" in AAA next season after Hedges.
Agree in general esp with top 5, but I think you've got to promote probably Moore just to protect yourself through ST next year.  Catchers this past year were a red hot commodity.  Byrnes frankly did really well pulling the trade for Moore even though he's a 3rd catcher journeyman guy.  He could end up having real value to either us or another team by end of ST... both are showing some "bat" in the 'meaningless' world of PCL... just as Rivera did last yr cool
  Come into ST with Grandal, Rivera, Moore, Hedges, Gale, & Dane Phillips... not bad!
Remember Moore is 30 … been released by a number of organizations … purchased for cash consideration from KC … not the profile of someone who would get picked up for $50K in the Rule 5. Catchers with his profile are available every spring … doubt a roster spot which would cost another player with a better chance of contribution (or with potential) is in his future. Note that some teams actually go through the Rule 5 timeframe with only one catcher on the 40 man … just a gamble.

On the positive side, Moore passed on his opt-out clause and is under a clause that allows him to opt out if a ML teams wants to add him …. none have come knocking … so he may resign for 2015 if he likes the situation (and if he doesn't see the Padres going with Hedges / Gale in AAA for 2015).

If the Padres had to choose … would think Gale … premier defense and younger.
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Posted: 08/11/2014 9:56 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



FENN68 wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: This ought to be a fairly easy roster manipulation to cover the prospects from Rule 5 … even after accommodating the 60 day DL returns to the 40 man. 

I only have 5: Lindsey; Spangenberg; Dickerson; Guerrero (teams love power armed RP as selections); and Needy. All the rest are not that significant as prospects … unlikely to be selected and kept. Losing one would not crimp the future of the Padres. Think Garces may be the wild card (over the oft injured Rearick) … if for no other reason than he is a LHRP with some decent production ...

As for Moore / Gale … think Moore is a minor league FA after the season but even if he was not a back-up catcher of his skills can be signed for AAA in the off-season (maybe Moore re-signs). Same goes for Gale … plus defense and no bat equals replaceable. Likely Gale does not get selected and is the "other catcher" in AAA next season after Hedges.
Agree in general esp with top 5, but I think you've got to promote probably Moore just to protect yourself through ST next year.  Catchers this past year were a red hot commodity.  Byrnes frankly did really well pulling the trade for Moore even though he's a 3rd catcher journeyman guy.  He could end up having real value to either us or another team by end of ST... both are showing some "bat" in the 'meaningless' world of PCL... just as Rivera did last yr cool
  Come into ST with Grandal, Rivera, Moore, Hedges, Gale, & Dane Phillips... not bad!
Remember Moore is 30 … been released by a number of organizations … purchased for cash consideration from KC … not the profile of someone who would get picked up for $50K in the Rule 5. Catchers with his profile are available every spring … doubt a roster spot which would cost another player with a better chance of contribution (or with potential) is in his future. Note that some teams actually go through the Rule 5 timeframe with only one catcher on the 40 man … just a gamble.

On the positive side, Moore passed on his opt-out clause and is under a clause that allows him to opt out if a ML teams wants to add him …. none have come knocking … so he may resign for 2015 if he likes the situation (and if he doesn't see the Padres going with Hedges / Gale in AAA for 2015).

If the Padres had to choose … would think Gale … premier defense and younger.
Personally, I would promote Gale.  But I think they'll go with Moore.  They always add a 3rd guy for Sept.  Frankly, I wish they would option Grandal now till Sept & see if he can wake up his bat, but doubt they will.  If Pads don't, another team might grab Moore for Sept via his rolling opt out / minors FA

They'll have Sept to evaluate Moore even if he doesn't play much.  It's another one of those "is someone else more important in the 40th roster spot" through winter.  Picking him over Gale gives Pads option of opening the 40-man spot if they want (someone would almost certainly claim Gale in same situation).  He won't come back as minors FA for 2015  unless Gale is gone.  Gale IS very unlikely to get picked in Rule 5, but it's conceivable.

IMO the market for backup C's last year looked utterly overpriced & destitute... smart move is avoiding it now.
Best case is my depth chart above.  Worst (unlikely) case is losing both Moore & Gale in offseason, then having to promote Hedges too early b/c no other alternative if needed.
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Posted: 08/11/2014 10:46 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: This ought to be a fairly easy roster manipulation to cover the prospects from Rule 5 … even after accommodating the 60 day DL returns to the 40 man. 

I only have 5: Lindsey; Spangenberg; Dickerson; Guerrero (teams love power armed RP as selections); and Needy. All the rest are not that significant as prospects … unlikely to be selected and kept. Losing one would not crimp the future of the Padres. Think Garces may be the wild card (over the oft injured Rearick) … if for no other reason than he is a LHRP with some decent production ...

As for Moore / Gale … think Moore is a minor league FA after the season but even if he was not a back-up catcher of his skills can be signed for AAA in the off-season (maybe Moore re-signs). Same goes for Gale … plus defense and no bat equals replaceable. Likely Gale does not get selected and is the "other catcher" in AAA next season after Hedges.
Agree in general esp with top 5, but I think you've got to promote probably Moore just to protect yourself through ST next year.  Catchers this past year were a red hot commodity.  Byrnes frankly did really well pulling the trade for Moore even though he's a 3rd catcher journeyman guy.  He could end up having real value to either us or another team by end of ST... both are showing some "bat" in the 'meaningless' world of PCL... just as Rivera did last yr cool
  Come into ST with Grandal, Rivera, Moore, Hedges, Gale, & Dane Phillips... not bad!
Remember Moore is 30 … been released by a number of organizations … purchased for cash consideration from KC … not the profile of someone who would get picked up for $50K in the Rule 5. Catchers with his profile are available every spring … doubt a roster spot which would cost another player with a better chance of contribution (or with potential) is in his future. Note that some teams actually go through the Rule 5 timeframe with only one catcher on the 40 man … just a gamble.

On the positive side, Moore passed on his opt-out clause and is under a clause that allows him to opt out if a ML teams wants to add him …. none have come knocking … so he may resign for 2015 if he likes the situation (and if he doesn't see the Padres going with Hedges / Gale in AAA for 2015).

If the Padres had to choose … would think Gale … premier defense and younger.
Personally, I would promote Gale.  But I think they'll go with Moore.  They always add a 3rd guy for Sept.  Frankly, I wish they would option Grandal now till Sept & see if he can wake up his bat, but doubt they will.  If Pads don't, another team might grab Moore for Sept via his rolling opt out / minors FA

They'll have Sept to evaluate Moore even if he doesn't play much.  It's another one of those "is someone else more important in the 40th roster spot" through winter.  Picking him over Gale gives Pads option of opening the 40-man spot if they want (someone would almost certainly claim Gale in same situation).  He won't come back as minors FA for 2015  unless Gale is gone.  Gale IS very unlikely to get picked in Rule 5, but it's conceivable.

IMO the market for backup C's last year looked utterly overpriced & destitute... smart move is avoiding it now.
Best case is my depth chart above.  Worst (unlikely) case is losing both Moore & Gale in offseason, then having to promote Hedges too early b/c no other alternative if needed.
I would add that if they opened a roster spot in Sept … adding either Gale or Moore for some flexibility and Insurance would be feasible considering they can just DFA them before creating the pre-Rule 5 40 man. Simply dropping someone like LaFromboise or Conrad on Sept 1 and adding a C is a no harm no foul type move. If they needed that roster spot to protect someone from the Rule 5 … putting Gale or Moore on waivers at the point when all other teams are struggling to fit players on their 40 man roster … might get them through given they are not that high profile.
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Posted: 08/11/2014 11:10 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 


I don't think the Padres will have many tough decisions in the end when the Rule 5 arrives, and if it were tomorrow, I still don't think there'd be much trouble protecting their guys. Lot's of fodder on this roster and most of the guys that need protecting are sort of marginal anyways.

Put that together with new GM (likely going to be busy this offseason) and I think it will take care of itself.

As I've said in another post:

Guys that can just be dropped without a second look:

LaFromboise
Oramas
Conrad
Nelson
Asencio
Francouer

Likely wouldn't hurt much:

Goebbert
Jackson
Roach

On the bubble/potentially released/free agents/trade candidates:

Sampson
Stauffer
JJ
Stults
Amarista
Quentin
Almonte

I see a lot of flexibility here.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 08/12/2014 8:40 AM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



DaveyPinstripes wrote: I don't think the Padres will have many tough decisions in the end when the Rule 5 arrives, and if it were tomorrow, I still don't think there'd be much trouble protecting their guys. Lot's of fodder on this roster and most of the guys that need protecting are sort of marginal anyways.

Put that together with new GM (likely going to be busy this offseason) and I think it will take care of itself.

As I've said in another post:

Guys that can just be dropped without a second look:

LaFromboise
Oramas
Conrad
Nelson
Asencio
Francouer

Likely wouldn't hurt much:

Goebbert
Jackson
Roach

On the bubble/potentially released/free agents/trade candidates:

Sampson
Stauffer
JJ
Stults
Amarista
Quentin
Almonte

I see a lot of flexibility here.
You're right in general, though everyone might quibble with which list you put this or that guy. 

Last year Pads had an even tighter 40-man that was up to 46 or 47 guys with all the DL.  But a weaker class of guys needing protection (only Sampson, Roach, Oramas....confused).   Before ST last yr Pads traded 9 guys off MLB roster (many AAA types) plus Andriese & Anna... so 11 MLB / 4A players for only 2 MLB players:  Seth Smith & Alex Torres plus a lower number of higher quality  minors guys... like Ryan Jackson, Alex Dickerson, and jackpot named Jesse Hahn.

There will be some of these moves again, but not as many as last year.
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Posted: 08/12/2014 12:21 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



DaveyPinstripes wrote: I don't think the Padres will have many tough decisions in the end when the Rule 5 arrives, and if it were tomorrow, I still don't think there'd be much trouble protecting their guys. Lot's of fodder on this roster and most of the guys that need protecting are sort of marginal anyways.

Put that together with new GM (likely going to be busy this offseason) and I think it will take care of itself.

As I've said in another post:

Guys that can just be dropped without a second look:

LaFromboise
Oramas
Conrad
Nelson
Asencio
Francouer

Likely wouldn't hurt much:

Goebbert
Jackson
Roach

On the bubble/potentially released/free agents/trade candidates:

Sampson
Stauffer
JJ
Stults
Amarista
Quentin
Almonte

I see a lot of flexibility here.
How can you possibly say Asencio can be dropped without even a second look?
Have you seen him play?
Throw?
The guy is much better than just a guy that can be let go without a thought.......





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 08/12/2014 12:43 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



MrPadre19 wrote:
DaveyPinstripes wrote: I don't think the Padres will have many tough decisions in the end when the Rule 5 arrives, and if it were tomorrow, I still don't think there'd be much trouble protecting their guys. Lot's of fodder on this roster and most of the guys that need protecting are sort of marginal anyways.

Put that together with new GM (likely going to be busy this offseason) and I think it will take care of itself.

As I've said in another post:

Guys that can just be dropped without a second look:

LaFromboise
Oramas
Conrad
Nelson
Asencio
Francouer

Likely wouldn't hurt much:

Goebbert
Jackson
Roach

On the bubble/potentially released/free agents/trade candidates:

Sampson
Stauffer
JJ
Stults
Amarista
Quentin
Almonte

I see a lot of flexibility here.
How can you possibly say Asencio can be dropped without even a second look?
Have you seen him play?
Throw?
The guy is much better than just a guy that can be let go without a thought.......




Asencio is at least 24 (who really knows for sure) and still in San Antonio. His OPS is a weak .732. He has six walks in over 460 plate appearances. Ugh. After a very nice July (.863 OPS) he has stalled so far in August (.670 OPS). I think he's at an age where he needs to show improvement from one month to another or hold ground. But there's still some time left in August. maybe he turns it around in a big way.
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Posted: 08/12/2014 12:45 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



MrPadre19 wrote:
How can you possibly say Asencio can be dropped without even a second look?
Have you seen him play?
Throw?
The guy is much better than just a guy that can be let go without a thought.......
Pretty simple.

The guy had a couple decent short seasons a few years ago, but last two years his offense is no longer a value and he's now 24 years old in Double-A (will be 25 in Nov.), sporting a .708 OPS in 2013 and .723 in 2014. He's never had plus power and he's not a threat on the basepaths. And he has no plate patience, which wipes out what have been decent BA #s.

He may have a cup of coffee someday as a reserve outfielder, but without a bat and without ability to play CF, just don't see any value here for the big club, especially if it came down to adding someone like Dickerson (who IMO, is much more likely to contribute in MLB). You can disagree with this assessment if you like, but IMO he's never going to be a player with value in MLB.
En boca cerrada no entran moscas.
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Posted: 08/12/2014 12:51 PM

Re: Looking ahead... who to protect from Rule 5 in Nov 2014 



DaveyPinstripes wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote:
How can you possibly say Asencio can be dropped without even a second look?
Have you seen him play?
Throw?
The guy is much better than just a guy that can be let go without a thought.......
Pretty simple.

The guy had a couple decent short seasons a few years ago, but last two years his offense is no longer a value and he's now 24 years old in Double-A (will be 25 in Nov.), sporting a .708 OPS in 2013 and .723 in 2014. He's never had plus power and he's not a threat on the basepaths. And he has no plate patience, which wipes out what have been decent BA #s.

He may have a cup of coffee someday as a reserve outfielder, but without a bat and without ability to play CF, just don't see any value here for the big club, especially if it came down to adding someone like Dickerson (who IMO, is much more likely to contribute in MLB). You can disagree with this assessment if you like, but IMO he's never going to be a player with value in MLB.

Is he really 24?
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