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Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1278 posts this site

Posted: 06/19/2014 11:12 AM

Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


There has been a lot of speculation about upcoming changes to team management but running on different threads, so this is an attempt to consolidate:

  I believe pretty strongly that the following are the reasons in order for the Padres lack of success particularly this year:

  1. Players
  2. Injuries
  3. Bud Black
  4. Ownership turmoil of past

  I believe Brynes is an asset, not a liability.  Next post is my analysis why.  Later I'll list reasons why I think Bud is part of the problem at this point.
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1278 posts this site

Posted: 06/19/2014 11:16 AM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 



SUMMARY:   Josh Brynes has literally obtained the Padres current 1-4 SP all under control for 2 ½ years minimum (at time obtained) for: Anthony Rizzo, a LHRP (Thatcher), a utility infielder (Forsythe), some up/down guys (Boxberger, Werner, Parrino), and some marginal & non-prospects (Andriese, Stites, etc.).   If anyone can name a GM that has done better than that, let’s hear it. 

 

    He got a legit, all-star caliber cleanup hitter the only avenue available to him: Trade –again for marginal prospects.  And “gambled” on keeping him with an extension that didn’t break the bank. WHAT OTHER OPTION DID HE HAVE GIVEN PAYROLL CONSTRAINTS?

 

   I believe the Pads would be in far worse shape without Byrnes than with him.  Here’s an analysis mostly of trades, extensions, & FA moves:

 

 I would give Josh Brynes an "F" on only 4 moves:

  • The Gyorko extension.  The failed circular logic of the early extension is what gets me.  "Pads have to have some minimum salary guys contributing due to lower 1/3 payroll, so let's increase one of those guy’s salaries 1year before arbitration to maybe start coming out ahead on total salary for the guy 4-5 years from now?"  The timing was even worse than the philosophy.  Would Gyorko have gained any leverage at all if he had gotten red hot for all of May & hit .350 for the month with FA 5-6 YEARS away – NO.   Now you can't send him to AAA (prior to injury).   Why didn't he just wait until Gyorko had clearly broken out of the slump (which never happened)?  BAD!
  • Allowing Tyson Ross to qualify for Arbitration:  In meaningless season, kept Ross in Pads bullpen after injury prevented him from hitting & waited too long to inevitably send him to AAA to stretch out again as starter.  Instead of being minimum salary, he qualified for Arb as Super 2 = 1.5 MM wasted this year, plus higher salaries each subsequent year for Ross.  Maybe 10 MM total over 4 yrs for 2-3 bullpen appearances over a week on a < .500 team.  Inexcusable.
  • Manziel debacle.  Meaningless in big picture, but utterly cavalier, tone-deaf, and stupid.
  • Complete lack of transparency about injured Minor Leaguers:  This is not the NFL.  There is absolutely NO reason Pads can’t once/month give an HONEST update on status of injured guys in the minors.  Not doing so only breeds mistrust among die-hard fans and presumably players & execs within and outside of the system.


Don't know if it was Bud or Byrnes or both re roster at beginning of year.  I thought it was pretty obvious:

  • Grandal begin year @ AAA:  Start every other game & DH.  Build Hundley’s trade value by actually playing him.
  • Blanks on Pads to start yr:   Esp with Quentin out.  Understand going with Nady.  Yeah, great ST by Medica; 0 AB in AAA = end of argument IMO... needed time in AAA.

But almost all other moves he’s made IMO were postive.  Byrnes had the experience & guts to "go big or go home" his 1st year with all the extensions.  Not all have worked out due to injury, but I don't see how you can fault him for locking up an All-Star caliber #4 hitter:

  • Hundley.  Minor bad deal; fell apart & injured first year.  Passed by others defensively
  • Luebke.   Bad deal entirely due to injury.
  • Maybin.  Injury prone, yes.  But right now looks like below market deal for one of very few bright spots on roster.
  • Street.  Great deal.  Way below market this year & next = great trade value
  • Quentin.  Injuries have decimated his value, but contract $$ still not outrageous.


Then the Latos deal... I would do it again in a heartbeat.  It was a great fit for both teams.  If none of Alonso, Grandal, & Boxberger develop into what we hoped they would; we went 0 for 3.  My one gripe is that Alonso's ceiling IMO was always pretty limited by no HR power.... so could fault Byrnes for " rationalizing" the subsequent trade of Rizzo:

  • Rizzo for Cashner:  Tough call, but starting to look better & better for Pads.  Rizzo did look like Mr. Swing & miss for Pads, but limited AB's.

But other moves look outstanding-- “A” grades:

  • Tyson Ross for Andrew Werner & Andy Parrino.  
  • Ian Kennedy for Joe Thatcher, Matt Stites, & a comp balance 2nd round draft pick

Both Kennedy & Ross could easily be traded now for more than we gave up to get them.

  • Alex Torres + Jesse Hahn for Logan Forsythe + Brad Boxberger + minor leaguers looks like huge win so far.  Right now 3 of 5 SP on Padres obtained for essentially nothing!
  • Seth Smith for Luke Gregerson
  • Benoit signing with below market vesting option if he is healthy closer all yr 2015
  • Josh Johnson not an “A” due to injury; given way our outstanding “depth” has played out this year, I don’t think this move was as bad as it’s been made out to be.
  • Venable extension:  a mistake.  But minor in terms of $; salary this year would have been very close or even higher in arb.  Only prominent LH guy on team that needs them before Smith; lack of LH hitters would have been even more glaring if traded.
  • Minor trades for Adam Moore & Tyler Greene have been excellent
  • Biggest move of all may be NOT having extended Headley!

The recent trades unlikely to become “A”, but not bad at all: better than “C” grade for sure:

  • Jake Goebbert &  Ronald Herrera for Kyle Blanks.  A’s might ultimately win this trade, but getting a LH OF who may get called up today with 0 MLB service time & a nice SP prospect at low-A where we really needed one while saving $ & gaining roster flexibility not bad at all.  I don’t neccly agree with choosing Medica over Blanks, but at least the decision was made & return maximized: both prospects could be in top 30 system in 2015.
  • Troy Patton for Nick Hundley + 1.5 MM.  Saved “gross” 1.3 MM on Hundley; net of 0.4 MM after Patton’s salary.  Patton injury obviously not what hoped for, but should at worst be tradeable in offseason as experienced LHRP’s always in demand.
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Posted: 06/19/2014 1:13 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


Its not that there is no transparencies with injuries, but rather they dont go out of their way to tell us how they are proceeding.  Do you expect Byrnes to come on air and give you a weekly rundown of every injured prospect?

Most of the time players who are injured for an extended period of time will start their rehab in Arizona.  In July/Aug it is pretty easy to tell as they are playing in the AZL or Eugene for a few weeks before going to whatever other level they are at.  In April/May they might be in games but no one reports on intrasquad AZL games, and you rarely hear that Player X pitched 3 innings or went 4-5.

A lot of the time with minor league prospects it is a wait and see.  Player X is injuried, they rest for a week or 2 than reevaluate.  Two weeks later they look at it, if its good then they start the rehab process.  Any minor flare up and they restart everything.  Even if the injury is minor.  With starters it is even more annoying as they might be in Arizona pitching for a month getting their innings up and as far as we know the player is still injured on the sidelines

Its just how all minor leagues work.  It is frustrating, but the org doesnt hide injuries.  You just have to ask, or have someone ask for you.
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Posted: 06/19/2014 1:45 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 



BenDavey wrote: Its not that there is no transparencies with injuries, but rather they dont go out of their way to tell us how they are proceeding.  Do you expect Byrnes to come on air and give you a weekly rundown of every injured prospect?

Most of the time players who are injured for an extended period of time will start their rehab in Arizona.  In July/Aug it is pretty easy to tell as they are playing in the AZL or Eugene for a few weeks before going to whatever other level they are at.  In April/May they might be in games but no one reports on intrasquad AZL games, and you rarely hear that Player X pitched 3 innings or went 4-5.

A lot of the time with minor league prospects it is a wait and see.  Player X is injuried, they rest for a week or 2 than reevaluate.  Two weeks later they look at it, if its good then they start the rehab process.  Any minor flare up and they restart everything.  Even if the injury is minor.  With starters it is even more annoying as they might be in Arizona pitching for a month getting their innings up and as far as we know the player is still injured on the sidelines

Its just how all minor leagues work.  It is frustrating, but the org doesnt hide injuries.  You just have to ask, or have someone ask for you.
Please ask someone about Jordan Paroubeck!wink





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

Last edited 06/19/2014 1:46 PM by MrPadre19

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Posted: 06/19/2014 2:00 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


What's the latest on Fried? Freid?
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Posted: 06/19/2014 2:28 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


I think Byrnes has done a good job, and calling for his job is just an overreaction to the team playing badly.  Yes, the team can't hit and that is at least partially on Byrnes.  But, like brian said, he has completely remade the starting rotation while giving up very very little to do so.  I'm conflicted.  I want the offense to improve, but I don't think firing Byrnes is going to make that happen.  Everyone wants to scream "get better hitters!" but the real question is "how?" 

Like brain said, if you had to average out all of the moves he's made then it definitely comes out positive given the lack of talent that he has had to part with.  Sure, Quentin may be way too injury prone, but what would Simon Castro be doing for the offense? 

I genuinely think that at some point in the chain of command there is a huge, huge inability to foster and develop hitting talent.  The only guys we have that can hit are the guys who came to us as fully developed hitters (CQ, Smith).  I don't think this failure is at the minor league level.  But I also don't know exactly how much a hitting coach and a manager really impact a teams ability to hit.  So it's tricky. 

Firing the hitting coach hasn't worked for us before.  This team has NEVER hit while Black has been the manager.  I have no idea if those things are related at all, but I'm ready for them to fire Black and find out, honestly.
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Posted: 06/19/2014 3:26 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


I think Byrnes has done a terrible job, and calling for his job is a natural reaction to a team that has regressed under his stewardship.  The team can't hit, Byrnes built the team, and that is all on Byrnes.

Byrnes served as GM to the D-Bags from 2005-2010

2005  77-85
2006  76-86
2007  90-72
2008  82-80
2009  70-92
2010  65-97

Highlights:  Huge extension to Eric Byrnes; trading a young and healthy Quentin for NOTHING, trading a young CarGo along with a bunch of prospects for Dan Haren;

Byrnes has served as GM to MY Padres from 2012-Present
2012  76-86
2013  76-86
2014  30-42 (so far) 



Highlights: Failed extensions to Hundley,Luebke, Maybin, and Gyorko; Giving Quentin a no trade clause;  Wasting $8 million on Josh Johnson; trading staff ace Latos for 2 guys who aren't hitting their weight, a middling reliever, and a starter who had maybe the worst season in Padres history.

Byrnes career combined record: 642 wins 726 losses
Byrnes seasonal average as a GM (Not including this season)...wait for it...76-86.

As of today Padres are 30-42.  If they exceed expectations for the rest of the season by playing .500 ball, they will finish...wait for it again...75-87.

 Hey Byrnes, Harry Truman just called and asked where the buck stops.


 

Padres Baseball: Waiting until next year since 1969.

Last edited 06/19/2014 4:43 PM by UncleBolt

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Posted: 06/19/2014 3:31 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


I don't blame Byrnes either.
I'm "OK" with the job he's done.
Not ecstatic but not upset either.These same players hit last year.....how do you blame the GM if they suddenly can't?

Did Byrnes even make the Quentin trade?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/19/2014 4:31 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


Buying out years of arb. with a player with only a year of ML service time like the deal with Gyorko was reckless.  I got the Cahner for Rizzo trade but we had  Blanks waiting the wings. We lost power from Adrian and potential power guy in Rizzo. Why wouldn't they want to a least just flip the no power Alonso if they had to take him in the deal?  

If you really think about Brynes hasn't been here that long.  For me it's a mixed bag on Brynes. He did absolutely steal some pitching.  If the decision was mine I would leave Brynes in place with the understanding that we have to rethink the extent of buying out arb. years.

Black has to go. I would never thought this two months, but what has he ever done to motivate anyone.  If managing is just making pitching changes and double switches he's good.  There is a huge disconnect and I can't see how it does begin and end with him.  We have been through endless hitting coaches but it's going to happen again.

Player development has to be addressed.  There is no excuses in that area.  I'll be surprise if Mike Dee doesn't fire bomb that department.
The current unis are a hound.... Bring Back The Brown
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Posted: 06/19/2014 4:55 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 



thrownoutatsecond wrote: Buying out years of arb. with a player with only a year of ML service time like the deal with Gyorko was reckless.  I got the Cahner for Rizzo trade but we had  Blanks waiting the wings. We lost power from Adrian and potential power guy in Rizzo. Why wouldn't they want to a least just flip the no power Alonso if they had to take him in the deal?  

If you really think about Brynes hasn't been here that long.  For me it's a mixed bag on Brynes. He did absolutely steal some pitching.  If the decision was mine I would leave Brynes in place with the understanding that we have to rethink the extent of buying out arb. years.

Black has to go. I would never thought this two months, but what has he ever done to motivate anyone.  If managing is just making pitching changes and double switches he's good.  There is a huge disconnect and I can't see how it does begin and end with him.  We have been through endless hitting coaches but it's going to happen again.

Player development has to be addressed.  There is no excuses in that area.  I'll be surprise if Mike Dee doesn't fire bomb that department.
Could not agree more.  The system is supposed to be strong, but then they peter out as they rise at a rate that seems out of proportion to the admittedly high attrition rate for low level prospects in other organizations.  Not to mention the shocking record with injuries to young arms in the system
Prospect I'm Championing 2014: Jonathan Galvez (last year K Sampson)
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Posted: 06/19/2014 5:14 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 



UncleBolt wrote:

I think Byrnes has done a terrible job, and calling for his job is a natural reaction to a team that has regressed under his stewardship.  The team can't hit, Byrnes built the team, and that is all on Byrnes.

Byrnes served as GM to the D-Bags from 2005-2010

2005  77-85
2006  76-86
2007  90-72
2008  82-80
2009  70-92
2010  65-97

Highlights:  Huge extension to Eric Byrnes; trading a young and healthy Quentin for NOTHING, trading a young CarGo along with a bunch of prospects for Dan Haren;

Byrnes has served as GM to MY Padres from 2012-Present
2012  76-86
2013  76-86
2014  30-42 (so far) 



Highlights: Failed extensions to Hundley,Luebke, Maybin, and Gyorko; Giving Quentin a no trade clause;  Wasting $8 million on Josh Johnson; trading staff ace Latos for 2 guys who aren't hitting their weight, a middling reliever, and a starter who had maybe the worst season in Padres history.

Byrnes career combined record: 642 wins 726 losses
Byrnes seasonal average as a GM (Not including this season)...wait for it...76-86.

As of today Padres are 30-42.  If they exceed expectations for the rest of the season by playing .500 ball, they will finish...wait for it again...75-87.

 Hey Byrnes, Harry Truman just called and asked where the buck stops.


 

Byrnes assembled the offense and the offense is terrible.  Therefore Byrnes should be fired.

Byrnes assembled the pitching staff and the pitching staff is terrific.  Therefore Byrnes ______(??????)

Considering that you know that Gyorko's extension is a failure, you must live in the year 2020.  What's it like?

And it's actually kind of funny that you think extensions to Maybin, Luebke and Hundley should somehow give cause to firing Byrnes.  Those three extensions account for 46 million dollars over 12 years.  That is not going to get a GM fired, no matter how bad you want it to.

Last edited 06/19/2014 5:24 PM by Moldenke

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Posted: 06/19/2014 5:28 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


Did Byrnes make the trade for Quentin?
I thought that was Hoyer?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/19/2014 5:33 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 



MrPadre19 wrote: Did Byrnes make the trade for Quentin?
I thought that was Hoyer?
Looks like it happened right after Hoyer left.  So yeah, Byrnes.

 But again: who would be doing the offense more favors, Carlos Quentin or Simon Castro?
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Posted: 06/19/2014 6:10 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 





---------------------------------------------
--- Moldenke wrote:


MrPadre19 wrote: Did Byrnes make the trade for Quentin?
I thought that was Hoyer?
Looks like it happened right after Hoyer left.  So yeah, Byrnes.

 But again: who would be doing the offense more favors, Carlos Quentin or Simon Castro?

---------------------------------------------

Yeah....I'm OK with the trade.
It's the only way were gonna get an established power hitter.
Free agency isn't an option because they will choose another team and more money nearly every time.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/19/2014 6:15 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


The Quentin trade was great, the extension was a little weird.  But really, it's not a lot of money.  The Byrnes detractors all seem to think that small amounts of money invested over short periods of time is somehow going to run a franchise into the ground.
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Posted: 06/19/2014 6:25 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


OMG...the Padres win again?!
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Posted: 06/19/2014 6:37 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


Here is a question...

If a GM goes out and gets an established major league vet (or at least someone with 2-3 years experience), and then the vet blows chunks.... whose fault is it?
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Posted: 06/19/2014 6:49 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


The reason I ask is that no one on the team really had big ?? on them entering the year outside of the health of Grandal and Quentin.  None of them were rookies (Gyokro year 2 all others years 3+), and all had positive WARs in 2013.  

The "main" part of our lineup Quentin, Venable, Headley, Gyorko, ECab, and DIno all had WAR's over 2 last year, and all had OPS north of .700.  Were they great?  Maybe not, but solid yes...

This year none of the above players have an OPS north of .700.  The highest of the group is Q with .671.  

So while everyone says blame the GM, it goes back to the question that if a player has a proven trac record of doing good, and all of a sudden fails miserably, is it the fault of the GM?  Manager?  Hitting Coach?  Player?  

I dont think you can blame the GM, he put the pieces together that should have worked.  While Id love to blame Black, I fault him for the horrendous daily lineups more so than anything else.  The hitting coaches were all their last year.  It makes me think most of the blame needs to go squarely on the players, and at the same time the biggest diference between 2013 and 2014 is Rick Renteria.  What type of effect did he have on the team?  Is he the X factor that we are not considering?

Either way, it annoys me when fans say blame the GM.  It annoys me that they blame the GM if a player doesnt perform.  Yes part of the accountability is on the GM, but at the same time the way baseball is a GM cant magically turn a team around in a year or two.  And if a GM tries, he has to do so by gambling on some moves.  Some worked (Tampa trade from last year) some dont (Blanks trade thus far), some might work but injuries have made it questionable (Gyorko, Luebke)

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Posted: 06/19/2014 7:22 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


I'm not even looking for who to blame.....I'm just want an explanation for what were witnessing.
It's unreal.
I can understand that all of last years starters won't automatically improve.....but every one regressing.
All at the same time?
WTH?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/19/2014 8:08 PM

Re: Byrnes vs. Bud Black vs. Ownership/front office vs. Injuries 


Hi Fellas

I haven't weighed in in awhile and I must say this Tred got my attn. First of all, I'm a wreck this week just as most of you are.  I couldn't stop crying on Monday morning. We lost our icon. We lost a great guy. We lost my kids favorite ballplayer and role model. I feel like a member of my own family died.

I know it's probably not the best time to start ripping the ballclub and organization, but after being a fan for over 45 years, its getting hard to keep taking it. The Pads don't have many guys hitting over 210 in June. Are you kidding me. No, it's not time to give Byrnes a break, Its not time to give the dual hitting coaches a break. It's time to run all of these nice guys out of town and let them try and find new jobs. 

The chemistry is horrible and it starts at the top. Im suggesting firing Fowler, The Dodger imposters, and everybody else collecting a paycheck. Dont be scared cuz CK1969 is in the hizzy...
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