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Let's be Honest

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1294 posts this site

Posted: 06/09/2014 11:15 AM

Let's be Honest 


copied over from Nationals series thread...

Re: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (June 6 - 8) 

FENN68 wrote: Nice comeback for both Cashner and the team! Also, give credit to the team not just folding after Vincent blew the lead and after some bad games the past few days … looks like a group that are just not quitters and that is good for the long haul.

My positive observation for the day … and why we will not see any breaking up of the club in the near term:

1. The Padres are still only 4 games out of the wild card slot with just under 4 months to go … one really good hot streak or think of last year's final months … and there is a chance;
2. Can't go further unless you get in the playoffs … so just getting is a decent objective for this team given SF is blowing away everyone with the best record in baseball …. making the playoffs would be a major plus for the ownership (even if artistically not good);
3. Considering my earlier post highlighting the 8 of 10 Padre hitters performing way below their 3-year histories … a move towards the norm of just some of them may get the Padres back winning …. gaining ground …. again there is a chance.

May not look pretty …. but winning is not out of the question …. yet. The Padres will not throw in the towel if there is a chance.  

Where are my playoff tickets biggrin

-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------
FENN, I'm usually terminally optimistic as you & Pads fans almost have to be, but what I see is:

Our Ace pitcher pitches brilliant game, at home, against .500ish team with a no-name pitcher....
.... and it takes a 2 out 9th inning homer to tie, and 11 innings to win.   
In other words, our best is barely good enough.

I'm guessing Pads have had 5? 6? resounding wins all year.  HAVE played a lot of close games to pitching staff's credit, but have probably 2-3 times the number of resounding losses.   We don't have an outstanding position player at any single position, and obviously aren't really a team that makes up for that by scratching & clawing or whatever....

Honestly:
  •   BULLPEN:  Excellent.  Top 5-6, but overworked.  Depth is OK at best.
  • SP 1:  Good. Cashner clearly has #1 stuff & Ace potential, still a little inconsistent & injury history looms
  • SP 2:  Good.   Kennedy has really turned it around for the better
  • SP 3:  OK.  Ross clearly has stuff to be good #3+ pitcher, but inconsistent; trouble getting through 5th/6th
  • SP 4:  Atrocious.  Stults is not good enough to be a #5, should be a long man at best, but can't due to SP Actual depth below....
  • SP 5:  Atrocious (OK).  Erlin was really pitching well, looking like a good #4 before DL.  Replacements have been generally bad due to....
  • SP Potential Depth:   Outstanding!  Wisler, Burch Smith, Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland, Keyvious Sampson, Juan Oramas, Jesse Hahn, Despaigne... what could go wrong?
  • SP Actual Depth:   Atrocious.  Injury & underperfomance everywhere have led to Billy Buckner!  IMO seriously they should have optioned Quack & kept Jason Lane for the upcoming #5 spot.  NO good options I can see, and whoever it is has to go every 5th day... no more schedule breaks.  This spot behind Stults for a few weeks could get disastrously ugly.  Not 2 long guys in pen anymore either.
  • C:   OK offense / Good "defense".  1 C of 3 (now 2) has been hot hitting at a time.  But overall position a team strength even with Grandal's slump
  • 1B:   Way below average:   Alonso coming around, but his best still below average offensively
  • 2B:  Atrocious.
  • SS:  Average.  Cabrera maddening with inability to BB & use his best tool; speed.
  • 3B:  Atrocious.
  • LF:  Good (OK):  Quentin / Smith = Likely above avg production even for LF
  • CF:   Very Good:  Maybin one of the few bright spots so far
  • RF:  Below Average:   Usually above avg production of last few yrs via "Venorfia" platoon has dropped with Venable's poor prodcution.
  • BENCH:  OK:  Decent production despite awkward configuration with 3 C's & probably bad choice of Nady & Medica over Blanks initially
  • DEFENSE:  OK.  Quentin bringing back Klesko memories in LF.  Overall not as good as past yrs.
  • TEAM SPEED:  Below Average.  Should be Way above average.  ECab beginning to roll, but not as impactful as could be due to low OBP.  Denorfia & Alonso(!) chipping in, but getting nothing from Maybin (no run orders due to shoulder?) & Venable.   Pads really have to be a team that runs... and they're not.

Summary:   Better than Average:  Bullpen, Top 3 SP, CF, LF (offense only)
                     Average:  (Erlin), C, SS, Bench, Defense
                      Below Average - Atrocious:   SP 4, current SP 5 / actual SP depth, 1B, 2B, 3B, RF

Ironically, we are composed to succeed as a playoff team with good top 3 SP & pen.
But reality of atrociously bad offense & SP 4 & 5 for forseeable future (June) IMO makes playoffs a pipe dream.
Everybody's favorite whipping boy Maybin right now looks like the only above average player at his position. 
He's probably been told not to run (steal bases) due to shoulder... which is his fault.
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Posted: 06/09/2014 1:01 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


Actually, NOT optimistic. I do think they will be way out of it by July … even the wild card (if nothing else too many teams ahead of them). My dissertation on the wild card was more of a reason why the Padres will not do anything dramatic in the short term … until they are really out of it. It also help that few other teams will do much until July.

Does make for interesting decisions around the trade deadline and in the off season …. and I am sure whatever strategy they employ … there will be a lot of discontent.  I think the Padres have jumped the shark and need to totally retool focusing on the younger players and prospects … and yes that means moving on from some of the veterans that may be the Padres' better players. Some points that I see:

1. The key Padres' prospects will start arriving in 2015-16 and probably not be full productive until 2016-17 and without them succeeding the Padres will still be mediocre / bad;
2. The current players have gotten the Padres to where they are … all should be at risk;
3. Older players get older and generally begin decline in skills;
4. Can't replace everyone at one time;
5. It is a better bet to gamble on the younger players (Gyorko, Alonso, et. al) will be of value to the Padres in 2016 than the older players (Street, Kennedy, Benoit, et. al.);
6. The older players are the ones with some trade value today.

With that view, I think they are positioned to take the Miami / Houston route and clean out the veterans who have some trade value … eat it for 2015 … and build on youth.  No sense to continue repeating the mediocrity of the last few seasons by keeping players that just have no upside or future.

Would think that Street, Benoit, Kennedy, and Cabrera could get a decent return in a trade (deadline or winter) … Denorfia, Smith, Stauffer, and Headley are all FA after the season … get something if you can now otherwise only resign one if it fits a real short term need. Quentin and Venable FA after 2015 (maybe with limited exposure to their contracts … the can be moved for something at the 2015 trade deadline).

Time to bite the bullet …. no other choice except more of the same.
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Posted: 06/10/2014 10:05 AM

Re: Let's be Honest 



FENN68 wrote: Actually, NOT optimistic. I do think they will be way out of it by July … even the wild card (if nothing else too many teams ahead of them). My dissertation on the wild card was more of a reason why the Padres will not do anything dramatic in the short term … until they are really out of it. It also help that few other teams will do much until July.

Does make for interesting decisions around the trade deadline and in the off season …. and I am sure whatever strategy they employ … there will be a lot of discontent.  I think the Padres have jumped the shark and need to totally retool focusing on the younger players and prospects … and yes that means moving on from some of the veterans that may be the Padres' better players. Some points that I see:

1. The key Padres' prospects will start arriving in 2015-16 and probably not be full productive until 2016-17 and without them succeeding the Padres will still be mediocre / bad;
2. The current players have gotten the Padres to where they are … all should be at risk;
3. Older players get older and generally begin decline in skills;
4. Can't replace everyone at one time;
5. It is a better bet to gamble on the younger players (Gyorko, Alonso, et. al) will be of value to the Padres in 2016 than the older players (Street, Kennedy, Benoit, et. al.);
6. The older players are the ones with some trade value today.

With that view, I think they are positioned to take the Miami / Houston route and clean out the veterans who have some trade value … eat it for 2015 … and build on youth.  No sense to continue repeating the mediocrity of the last few seasons by keeping players that just have no upside or future.

Would think that Street, Benoit, Kennedy, and Cabrera could get a decent return in a trade (deadline or winter) … Denorfia, Smith, Stauffer, and Headley are all FA after the season … get something if you can now otherwise only resign one if it fits a real short term need. Quentin and Venable FA after 2015 (maybe with limited exposure to their contracts … the can be moved for something at the 2015 trade deadline).

Time to bite the bullet …. no other choice except more of the same.
I agree with this. I'd rather watch the future develop than the past keep moping. Although, there are some young guys that I doubt are part of the future. I'm really low on Alonso as a long term solution.
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Posted: 06/10/2014 12:10 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


I dont know how many of you guys use twitter but @PadresProspects posted a graph (or retweeted) but it showed how every MLB team did based on two numbers.  

The X axis was team BABIP
The Y axis was hard hit balls rate

The idea being that every team will be right about in the middle.  If you are higher on the Y than the X it means you hit the ball hard but getting unlucky.  Higher on X than Y it means you are getting lucky.  

The A's are the unluckiest team, hit the balls hard but not a lot of success.  White Sox and Miami are the luckiest team thus far (lower hard hit balls rate but higher BABIP).  

At the very VERY bottom left of the graph, as in the team that has the lowest BABIP and the lowest hard hit ball rate.. you guessed it LOS PADRES!!  So the Padres not only have by far the lowest BABIP (next lowest is 20 points higher) but we also have by far the worst hard hit ball rate (about 13%).  Its not that the Padres are getting unlucky... they are just bad
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Posted: 06/10/2014 12:37 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


Interesting and not very shocking stats. Confirms pretty much what I already knew
BenDavey wrote: I dont know how many of you guys use twitter but @PadresProspects posted a graph (or retweeted) but it showed how every MLB team did based on two numbers.  

The X axis was team BABIP
The Y axis was hard hit balls rate

The idea being that every team will be right about in the middle.  If you are higher on the Y than the X it means you hit the ball hard but getting unlucky.  Higher on X than Y it means you are getting lucky.  

The A's are the unluckiest team, hit the balls hard but not a lot of success.  White Sox and Miami are the luckiest team thus far (lower hard hit balls rate but higher BABIP).  

At the very VERY bottom left of the graph, as in the team that has the lowest BABIP and the lowest hard hit ball rate.. you guessed it LOS PADRES!!  So the Padres not only have by far the lowest BABIP (next lowest is 20 points higher) but we also have by far the worst hard hit ball rate (about 13%).  Its not that the Padres are getting unlucky... they are just bad
This Team makes me Drink !
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Posted: 06/10/2014 12:41 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


I still cannot get over te fact Headley said "when I face new pitchers I like to see their approach to comparable hitters so I watch tapes of them pitch to Adrian Gonzalez" 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Didn't know what thread to put this in just thought it was funny
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Posted: 06/10/2014 2:00 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



SteveInCbad wrote: Interesting and not very shocking stats. Confirms pretty much what I already knew
BenDavey wrote: I dont know how many of you guys use twitter but @PadresProspects posted a graph (or retweeted) but it showed how every MLB team did based on two numbers.  

The X axis was team BABIP
The Y axis was hard hit balls rate

The idea being that every team will be right about in the middle.  If you are higher on the Y than the X it means you hit the ball hard but getting unlucky.  Higher on X than Y it means you are getting lucky.  

The A's are the unluckiest team, hit the balls hard but not a lot of success.  White Sox and Miami are the luckiest team thus far (lower hard hit balls rate but higher BABIP).  

At the very VERY bottom left of the graph, as in the team that has the lowest BABIP and the lowest hard hit ball rate.. you guessed it LOS PADRES!!  So the Padres not only have by far the lowest BABIP (next lowest is 20 points higher) but we also have by far the worst hard hit ball rate (about 13%).  Its not that the Padres are getting unlucky... they are just bad


Steve...Sort of confirms your "Padres hitters could be blind" theory. ha

It must suck when you get the analysis back that you're not unlucky...you just suck.

At least we know it likely won't get much better. haha
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1294 posts this site

Posted: 06/10/2014 2:01 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



BenDavey wrote: I dont know how many of you guys use twitter but @PadresProspects posted a graph (or retweeted) but it showed how every MLB team did based on two numbers.  

The X axis was team BABIP
The Y axis was hard hit balls rate

The idea being that every team will be right about in the middle.  If you are higher on the Y than the X it means you hit the ball hard but getting unlucky.  Higher on X than Y it means you are getting lucky.  

The A's are the unluckiest team, hit the balls hard but not a lot of success.  White Sox and Miami are the luckiest team thus far (lower hard hit balls rate but higher BABIP).  

At the very VERY bottom left of the graph, as in the team that has the lowest BABIP and the lowest hard hit ball rate.. you guessed it LOS PADRES!!  So the Padres not only have by far the lowest BABIP (next lowest is 20 points higher) but we also have by far the worst hard hit ball rate (about 13%).  Its not that the Padres are getting unlucky... they are just bad
       THANK YOU for posting this....  I'm not surprised that Pads statistically prove to quite literally be the "weakest" (ground out) hitting team in baseball.   A Byrnes interview weeks ago he said it too; it's not so much the XBH/power... we just don't hit enough line drive singles out of the infield.  My question is:  WHY??
On paper, going into the season the Pads are not this bad.  WHAT is it?
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Posted: 06/10/2014 2:04 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



brianmcon wrote:
BenDavey wrote: I dont know how many of you guys use twitter but @PadresProspects posted a graph (or retweeted) but it showed how every MLB team did based on two numbers.  

The X axis was team BABIP
The Y axis was hard hit balls rate

The idea being that every team will be right about in the middle.  If you are higher on the Y than the X it means you hit the ball hard but getting unlucky.  Higher on X than Y it means you are getting lucky.  

The A's are the unluckiest team, hit the balls hard but not a lot of success.  White Sox and Miami are the luckiest team thus far (lower hard hit balls rate but higher BABIP).  

At the very VERY bottom left of the graph, as in the team that has the lowest BABIP and the lowest hard hit ball rate.. you guessed it LOS PADRES!!  So the Padres not only have by far the lowest BABIP (next lowest is 20 points higher) but we also have by far the worst hard hit ball rate (about 13%).  Its not that the Padres are getting unlucky... they are just bad
       THANK YOU for posting this....  I'm not surprised that Pads statistically prove to quite literally be the "weakest" (ground out) hitting team in baseball.   A Byrnes interview weeks ago he said it too; it's not so much the XBH/power... we just don't hit enough line drive singles out of the infield.  My question is:  WHY??
On paper, going into the season the Pads are not this bad.  WHAT is it?

It seems that steroids could be one variable that accounts for the differences. I have to wonder if there weren't other Padres players using the juice in recent history that maybe went undetected and now they aren't using. I'm not accusing anyone in particular but I have to wonder.
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Posted: 06/10/2014 2:12 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


https://twitter.com/msimonespn...2043393/photo/1

The chart in question via twitter. Really a graphic (ha) reminder of just how putrid this team is on offense.

And, like it's been said countless times, THERE IS NO WAY TO EXPLAIN IT!

These same hitters have almost all been better for the entirety of their careers, and they suddenly ALL stop hitting at once... well, except for Smith/Maybin and now Alonso. But everyone else? Goddamnit!
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Posted: 06/10/2014 2:53 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 





---------------------------------------------
--- sportwarrior wrote:

twitter.com/msimonespn...2043393/photo/1

The chart in question via twitter. Really a graphic (ha) reminder of just how putrid this team is on offense.

And, like it's been said countless times, THERE IS NO WAY TO EXPLAIN IT!

These same hitters have almost all been better for the entirety of their careers, and they suddenly ALL stop hitting at once... well, except for Smith/Maybin and now Alonso. But everyone else? Goddamnit!

---------------------------------------------

It's amazing we've won 10 games.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/10/2014 5:30 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



MrPadre19 wrote: It's amazing we've won 10 games.

It's amazing we're even on the chart.
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1294 posts this site

Posted: 06/11/2014 3:25 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



LevelAgain wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: It's amazing we've won 10 games.

It's amazing we're even on the chart.
Well the reason it's hard to see the chart is b/c they had to shrink the whole thing to fit the Pads in!  tongue
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Posted: 06/11/2014 4:06 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


Wow, looking at that chart...whether it's accurate or not...really is eye opening.  I'm not being condescending or sarcastic, but it is good to see fans making fun of/or light of their own team and it's misfortunes.  Anyone that knows me knows that I really do respect the Padres and have always hoped for a more Dodger/Padre rivalry.  Hopefully you guys can figure things out and get competitive.

"Watch your step, I'm bleedin blue!"


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Posted: 06/11/2014 4:41 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 





---------------------------------------------
--- skwiggy21 wrote:

Wow, looking at that chart...whether it's accurate or not...really is eye opening.  I'm not being condescending or sarcastic, but it is good to see fans making fun of/or light of their own team and it's misfortunes.  Anyone that knows me knows that I really do respect the Padres and have always hoped for a more Dodger/Padre rivalry.  Hopefully you guys can figure things out and get competitive.

---------------------------------------------

Thanks....and quit being such oh a stranger.
Isn't it amazing that we have a better record than the Phils?
I don't expect a big turnaround offensively but it's pretty crazy that with even a slight improvement we could actually make a decent year out of it.
We've already shown if we can even score four runs we can win seven of ten games.





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 06/12/2014 5:24 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


This may be piling on but I looked at the June batting stats for the Padres (knew they were bad but look at this):

Team … #30 in MLB ….. slash line of 146/213/230 … historically bad

Players:

238/238/429 … Venable is their top hitter!
214/267/357 … Smith, fallen way off from the hot start, maybe not so eager to extend, trade him before other team see this
206/270/253 … Headley, still nothing
200/304/300 … Maybin, another hot start ends

so much for the good eek now the bad

188/235/188 … Medica
167/212/300 … Alonso
154/154/385 … Grandal
136/296/227 … Rivera, probably the real Rivera
 
so much for the bad, not the unreal bad eekeek

079/146/105 … Cabrera
071/188/071 … Denorfia, see Smith
038/103/077 … Quentin, not quite the big bat they were hoping for with his return, heh
000/083/000 … Peterson, another testimony to ignoring PCL stats

Things are going from worse to worser eek1 Can't imagine how the FO can even try to spin this to suggest their is a future in 2015 without major changes.

Last edited 06/12/2014 5:25 PM by FENN68

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Posted: 06/12/2014 6:09 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



FENN68 wrote: This may be piling on but I looked at the June batting stats for the Padres (knew they were bad but look at this):

Team … #30 in MLB ….. slash line of 146/213/230 … historically bad

Players:

238/238/429 … Venable is their top hitter!
214/267/357 … Smith, fallen way off from the hot start, maybe not so eager to extend, trade him before other team see this
206/270/253 … Headley, still nothing
200/304/300 … Maybin, another hot start ends

so much for the good eek now the bad

188/235/188 … Medica
167/212/300 … Alonso
154/154/385 … Grandal
136/296/227 … Rivera, probably the real Rivera
 
so much for the bad, not the unreal bad eekeek

079/146/105 … Cabrera
071/188/071 … Denorfia, see Smith
038/103/077 … Quentin, not quite the big bat they were hoping for with his return, heh
000/083/000 … Peterson, another testimony to ignoring PCL stats

Things are going from worse to worser eek1 Can't imagine how the FO can even try to spin this to suggest their is a future in 2015 without major changes.
You can't judge players based on only 12 days in June.




 THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES
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Posted: 06/12/2014 6:22 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 




We can't judge lol this is how the team has been the entire year
---------------------------------------------
--- ultratvfan wrote:


FENN68 wrote: This may be piling on but I looked at the June batting stats for the Padres (knew they were bad but look at this):

Team … #30 in MLB ….. slash line of 146/213/230 … historically bad

Players:

238/238/429 … Venable is their top hitter!
214/267/357 … Smith, fallen way off from the hot start, maybe not so eager to extend, trade him before other team see this
206/270/253 … Headley, still nothing
200/304/300 … Maybin, another hot start ends

so much for the good eek now the bad

188/235/188 … Medica
167/212/300 … Alonso
154/154/385 … Grandal
136/296/227 … Rivera, probably the real Rivera
 
so much for the bad, not the unreal bad eekeek

079/146/105 … Cabrera
071/188/071 … Denorfia, see Smith
038/103/077 … Quentin, not quite the big bat they were hoping for with his return, heh
000/083/000 … Peterson, another testimony to ignoring PCL stats

Things are going from worse to worser eek1 Can't imagine how the FO can even try to spin this to suggest their is a future in 2015 without major changes.
You can't judge players based on only 12 days in June.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 06/12/2014 6:30 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 


Normally should not judge after just 10 games BUT in this case it comes after being inept as hitters in April-May leaving the only hope that the players would bounce back to their historical norm …. June is going in the opposite direction (worse) for just about everyone. In the context of the year … going from bad to worse … and that is a fair judgement. We are talking some historically bad numbers in the baseball version of mass hysteria by the hitters. 

Key takeaway … they should start to show improvement in the 3rd month of the season and instead are hitting at a worse pace … can't spin that even as a neutral.
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Posted: 06/12/2014 6:30 PM

Re: Let's be Honest 



FENN68 wrote:
Would think that Street, Benoit, Kennedy, and Cabrera could get a decent return in a trade (deadline or winter) … Denorfia, Smith, Stauffer, and Headley are all FA after the season … get something if you can now otherwise only resign one if it fits a real short term need. Quentin and Venable FA after 2015 (maybe with limited exposure to their contracts … the can be moved for something at the 2015 trade deadline).

Time to bite the bullet …. no other choice except more of the same.

You want to get rid of too much.

Cabrera, Stauffer, and Headley should be traded as well as Venable, Quentin, Alsonso, Medica, Rivera, Amaristo and Peterson. Have to find away to trade Gyorko.

The only offensive players I'd  keep are Deno, Maybin and Smith.

Deno was hitting very well from the beginning of the season until early May and was starting most games against LHP and RHP. Then when Black only started him twice a week against LHP his production went down significantly.

Street, who has an option and the one of the best closers in MLB should be kept.  Benoit,  Kennedy, Ross, Quack, Thayer,Torres, and Cash should be kept as well.

Vincent should be used in a trade.

Stults has to go. No ifs, ands, or buts.

It would be nice to retain Erlin, but I wouldn't mind him being traded for the right price





 THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES

Last edited 06/13/2014 10:55 AM by ultratvfan

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